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Iran May Be on the Verge of a Nuclear Weapon; Will Israel and the United States Act?
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attend a ceremony to sign an agreement of comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Jan. 17, 2025. Photo: Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via REUTERS
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu just met in Washington — and not a moment too soon. A team of scientists in Iran is reportedly working to short-cut Tehran’s route to nuclear weapons in case the Iranian leadership orders their complete construction.
Trump and Netanyahu have a narrow window to stop Iran if it opts to build those weapons. The US and Israel must urgently review and revamp their intelligence gathering and sabotage capabilities, while preparing military options to jointly destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities should it sprint for atomic weapons.
According to current and former US officials who spoke to The New York Times on February 3, during the waning months of Joe Biden’s administration, unnamed countries — likely the United States and Israel — gathered intelligence indicating “a secret team of [Iranian] scientists is exploring a faster, if cruder, approach to developing an atomic weapon if Tehran’s leadership decides to race for a bomb.”
These findings track with an Axios report from November quoting a US official who said that Iran had been “conduct[ing] scientific activity that could lay the ground for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing. A small part of the Iranian government knew about this, but most of the Iranian government didn’t.”
What is this so-called “crude” nuclear device that Iran might seek in a hurry, compared to a regular nuclear weapon?
Such a device, built more quickly, may lack the functionality assurances provided by a lengthier nuclear-weapon assembly time. This assembly process, known as “weaponization,” entails key scientific and engineering work that enables the production of a functioning nuclear bomb that integrates a uranium fissile core, a triggering mechanism, and explosives.
To short-cut its way to nuclear weapons, Tehran may even fuel a crude weapon with highly-enriched uranium (HEU) in lieu of the preferred weapons-grade uranium. While this would make Iran’s nuclear weapons larger and heavier, it would serve the purpose of establishing Tehran as nuclear-armed.
At last count, Iran had enough HEU for almost five nuclear weapons, and enough enriched uranium overall, if enriched further, for at least 16 weapons.
How fast could Iran weaponize its nuclear material?
Tehran could likely construct a crude device within six months of starting, only moving its enriched uranium stocks to a secret site for subsequent enrichment and/or weaponization around the four-month mark. Relocating those stocks would trigger international alarm bells, since the material remains under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. Yet unless the United States and Israel detect Tehran near day one of a six-month breakout to the bomb, they may just have weeks to stop Iran after the fuel goes missing.
To target Iran’s nuclear plants militarily, Washington and Jerusalem require exact intelligence about where Iran might be constructing nuclear weapons. A facility located deep underground raises additional obstacles, even for bunker-busting bombs.
If the United States and Israel were unable to stop Tehran, Iran could quickly declare itself a nuclear power, possibly issuing photos to the world and only later conducting a demonstration test.
What’s more, Iran knows well how to build nuclear weapons, having spent nearly three decades — from 1985 on — acquiring and then mastering the technology.
Under Tehran’s late 1990s to mid-2003 nuclear weapons program known as the Amad Plan, the regime set out to construct an initial five nuclear bombs and ready the capability to test them.
However, in 2002, opposition groups and non-governmental organizations detected Iran’s covert nuclear facilities. The possibility that the United States, under the George W. Bush administration, might invade Iran based on Tehran’s efforts to seek weapons of mass destruction — as America had done in neighboring Iraq — likely caused the regime to downsize the Amad Plan’s weaponization activities.
However, Iran planned to continue progressing some weaponization activities for a rainy day, while openly progressing its production of fuel.
Today, the IAEA has never been able to issue an all-clear that Tehran’s nuclear program is devoted to peaceful uses, as Iran obfuscates and maintains secrecy over past and ongoing activities.
Signs have periodically emerged of an ongoing weaponization effort, but the US intelligence community assessed, until at least July 2024, that Tehran maintained the Amad Plan’s halt. In early 2024, Israel and the United States reportedly acquired intelligence pointing to new Iranian weaponization-related activities.
During an October 2024 strike on Iran in retaliation for a missile attack, Israel destroyed a site known as Taleghan 2, where some of these alleged activities were taking place.
Facing Israel’s decimation of its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, lacking the means to defend its air space, and confronting an inability to quickly build new missiles since Jerusalem’s strike, the regime in Iran knows it is more vulnerable than ever — and is likely eager to have a plan to quickly acquire a nuclear deterrent.
Trump and Netanyahu have a historic chance to stop Iran once and for all.
They should immediately evaluate and enhance intelligence gathering and related operations aimed at detecting Iranian efforts to build nuclear weapons. They should ready sabotage operations to stop these efforts. Both countries have used sabotage in the past — namely cyber-attacks, supply chain disruption, and explosives — to successfully disrupt and deter Tehran’s nuclear progress at key facilities.
In addition, the two countries should hold a new round of Juniper Oak military exercises, the last of which were held more than two years ago. These exercises showcase their ability to jointly destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and could help deter a breakout by the regime before it starts.
Washington and Jerusalem should also enhance the interoperability of such a mission. In particular, the United States should allow Israel to practice refueling its fighter jets using American KC-46 refueling aircraft while Israel awaits US deliveries of KC-46 refueling aircraft to replace Jerusalem’s aging fleet.
Tehran may be desperate and poised to acquire the ultimate deterrent — a move that successive administrations in Washington and Jerusalem have said they will never tolerate.
Trump and Netanyahu may soon have to enforce that threat.
Andrea Stricker is a research fellow and deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow her on X @StrickerNonpro. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
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Belgian Premier Rejects Genocide Allegations Against Israel, Says Not the Time for ‘Palestinian State’ Recognition
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever speaks at a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (not pictured) in Kyiv, Ukraine, April 8, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever rejected a journalist’s claim that Israel is committing “genocide” in Gaza and argued it is premature to recognize a “Palestinian state” at this time, marking a notable departure from the previous administration’s anti-Israel stance.
During an interview on Wednesday with VRT, the Flemish public broadcaster, journalist Goedele Devroy questioned the Belgian leader about the parliament’s position on the ongoing war in Gaza and a possible shift in its approach toward Israel, following his assertions that the Jewish state is committing genocide in the war-torn enclave.
“On recognizing Palestine, I hear that the majority [in parliament] is working on a resolution to sharpen the tone against the genocide that’s happening there by Israel,” Devroy said.
De Wever rejected the premise of the question, which dismissed Israel’s defensive actions against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.
“Your line of questioning is extremely dubious,” the Belgian premier said. “You’re already operating under the assumption of genocide — that is something for the International Court of Justice to determine.”
Lady, not so fast 🫸
Belgian Prime Minister rebukes journalist over ‘genocide’ claim and says that before recognising #Palestine, several issues must be resolved. Thank you Prime Minister @Bart_DeWever for your clear message on this day, the 77th anniversary of Israel.Video by… pic.twitter.com/WbqWPDpsmt
— EJA – EIPA (@EJAssociation) May 1, 2025
When asked about the possibility of recognizing a “Palestinian state,” De Wever dismissed the idea, stating that it is not the right time, as there are still many unresolved issues that need to be addressed.
“What territory are we recognizing? Which authority? Is it democratic, legitimate? Is it committed to recognizing Israel, to the demilitarization of Hamas and to providing security guarantees, with broader implications for the Arab world?” the Belgian leader said.
Under Belgium’s previous Socialist-led government, the country had been one of Israel’s most vocal critics within the European Union.
For example, Belgium joined South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Since December 2023, South Africa has been pursuing its case at the ICJ, accusing Jerusalem of committing “state-led genocide” in its defensive military campaign that followed the Hamas-led invasion of and massacre across southern Israel.
The previous government also committed to honoring an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza.
In November, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, and now-deceased Hamas terror leader Ibrahim al-Masri (better known as Mohammed Deif) for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza war.
The ICC said there were reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant were criminally responsible for starvation in Gaza and the persecution of Palestinians — charges vehemently denied by Israel, which until a recently imposed blockade had provided significant humanitarian aid into the enclave throughout the war.
Israel also says it has gone to unprecedented lengths to try and avoid civilian casualties, despite Hamas’s widely acknowledged military strategy of embedding its terrorists within Gaza’s civilian population and commandeering civilian facilities like hospitals, schools, and mosques to run operations and direct attacks.
However, since taking office, De Wever has shifted Belgium’s foreign policy toward a more pro-Israel stance. His center-right government, led by the National Flemish Alliance party, took power this year after winning the largest share of votes in Belgium’s 2024 general election.
Last month, De Wever said that Belgium would not enforce the ICC arrest warrant against Netanyahu if he were to visit the country.
“There is such a thing as realpolitik,” he said in an interview with VRT. “I don’t think any European country would arrest Netanyahu if he were on their territory. France wouldn’t do it, and I don’t think we would either.”
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Trump Says Fewer Than 24 Hostages Still Alive in Gaza, Offers Sympathies to Family of Edan Alexander
US President Donald Trump speaks at the White House, in Washington, DC, Feb. 3, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he has become aware that fewer than 24 hostages are still alive in Gaza, heightening urgency to rescue the remaining survivors in the war-torn enclave.
“Out of 59, you had 24 that were living, and now I understand that it’s not even that number,” Trump said during a National Day of Prayer event at the White House.
For several months, Israeli officials have stated that 24 of the 59 hostages who remain in captivity were believed to still be alive in Gaza. However, during a public appearance earlier this week, Sara Netanyahu, wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, claimed the actual number was lower than the official count.
During his remarks on the White House lawn acknowledging the National Day of Prayer, Trump extended sympathies to the family of Edan Alexander, the final American hostage still believed to be alive in Gaza. Alexander’s parents, Adi and Yael, were seated in the audience during Trump’s speech.
“We don’t know how he’s doing, really…. We think we know, and hopefully [it’s] positive,” Trump said, referencing Alexander’s uncertain condition. “Two months ago, we were pretty sure. It looked like he was getting out. But they’ve toughened up a little bit. And it’s a terrible thing, I know, what you’re going through.”
Trump expressed support for the families of the remaining hostages still in Gaza, acknowledging their emotional turmoil.
“We’re working very, very hard to save your son,” he continues. “We have news coming out — both good and bad.”
Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native and soldier in the Israeli army, was taken hostage by Hamas during the Palestinian terrorist group’s Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. More than 250 people were kidnapped as hostages during the onslaught.
Alexander’s unknown fate has drawn a great deal of attention in both the US and Israel due to his American citizenship.
In April, Hamas released a video of Alexander showing the IDF solider alive. However, days later, the terrorist group claimed to lack knowledge of Alexander’s fate, saying that they lost contact with the guards holding him hostage after the location was allegedly hit in an Israeli airstrike.
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US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed Amid Rising Tensions
USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, Sept. 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
The fourth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, which were set to take place in Rome this weekend, have been postponed, with a new date yet to be announced amid rising tensions between Washington and Tehran.
On Thursday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei announced that the fourth round of indirect nuclear talks with US officials, originally scheduled for May 3, had been postponed at the suggestion of the Omani Foreign Minister, who mediated previous negotiations between the two adversaries.
In a post on X, the top Omani diplomat, Badr Albusaidi, confirmed that the upcoming talks had been delayed, stating that new dates will be announced once both sides reach a mutual agreement.
“For logistical reasons, we are rescheduling the US-Iran meeting provisionally planned for Saturday, May 3rd,” Albusaidi said.
For logistical reasons we are rescheduling the US Iran meeting provisionally planned for Saturday May 3rd. New dates will be announced when mutually agreed.
— Badr Albusaidi – بدر البوسعيدي (@badralbusaidi) May 1, 2025
Earlier on Thursday, Iran accused Washington of “contradictory behavior and provocative statements” following remarks by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who warned Tehran of severe consequences for supporting Yemen’s Houthi militia, an internationally designated terrorist group.
The Iran-backed group, which controls northern Yemen, has been targeting ships in the Red Sea since November 2023, disrupting global trade, while justifying the attacks as acts of solidarity with the Palestinians.
Iran’s accusation against Washington also comes after the US imposed new oil-related sanctions on Tehran this week, as US President Donald Trump continued pursing negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program.
As part of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran — which aims to cut the country’s crude exports to zero and prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon — Washington has been targeting Tehran’s oil industry with mounting sanctions.
“US sanctions on Iran during the nuclear talks are not helping the sides to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomacy,” a senior Iranian official told Reuters. “Depending on the US approach, the date of the next round of talks will be announced.”
Last month, the two adversaries held their first official nuclear negotiation since the US withdrew from a now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal that had imposed temporary limits on Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief.
The first and third rounds of talks were held in Oman, while the second round took place in Rome at the residence of the Omani ambassador.
Tehran has previously rejected halting its uranium enrichment program, insisting that the country’s right to enrich uranium is non-negotiable, despite Washington’s threats of military action, additional sanctions, and tariffs if an agreement is not reached to curb Iran’s nuclear activities.
However, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said that any deal with Iran must require the complete dismantling of its “nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.” Witkoff’s comments came after he received criticism for suggesting the Islamic Republic would be allowed to maintain its nuclear program in a limited capacity.
Despite Iran’s claims that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes rather than weapon development, Western states have said there is no “credible civilian justification” for the country’s recent nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”
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