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Iran’s Sham Elections and the Rise of a Military Junta: A Threat to US Interests

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with a group of students in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 2, 2022. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

World events, including the US presidential election this year, are causing considerable anxiety within the Iranian regime, which is fervently preparing for this possibility by seeking to preserve its oppressive system and ensure a smooth succession from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to his son. Driven by Khamenei’s delusional ambition of expanding the Shia Crescent and challenging the global order, Iran is aligning itself more closely with China and Russia, further exacerbating its international isolation.

For Ali Khamenei and his heir, orchestrating a seamless transition after Khamenei’s demise to uphold the Islamic Republic’s doctrinal governance remains their paramount objective. This singular goal underscores the despotic nature of Iran’s religious leadership, which continues to lean heavily on China and Russia, while maintaining its antagonism towards the West, the United States, and Israel.

In the annals of political theater, few spectacles rival the farcical charade that are Iranian elections. As the nation gears up for yet another orchestrated display of “democracy,” the ruling clerical establishment’s sole objective remains the preservation of its iron-fisted grip on power, and the perpetuation of its archaic system of religious despotism.

The carefully curated slate of candidates, handpicked by the regime’s Guardian Council, is a motley crew of swindlers, fools, and stooges, each one a loyal servant to the regime’s interests.

Dissenting voices are swiftly disqualified, ensuring that the outcome is predetermined, a mere formality in the grand scheme of things. Voter turnout, whether high or low, is inconsequential to the ruling elite. Official figures are routinely inflated through a well-oiled propaganda machine, projecting an illusion of legitimacy to the outside world. The reality, however, is far more sobering, with genuine participation estimated to be a small minority of the electorate.

The candidates, meticulously vetted and selected by the Guardian Council, are predominantly from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Ministry of Intelligence. This selection underscores a continuity in Iran’s policy of militaristic and clerical dominance, with each candidate demonstrating unwavering loyalty to Khamenei’s overarching vision.

Former CIA director Michael Morell’s alarming assertion in Foreign Affairs that, “The U.S. is on the brink of facing a significant terrorist threat,” resonates deeply in this context. This narrative parallels the ignored warnings prior to 9/11, painting a foreboding picture of the consequences of underestimating the signals emanating from Iran. The regime’s persistent support for networks like the Islamic Resistance, amid preparations for a possible Trump presidency, highlights a steadfast commitment to its long-standing strategies of regional and global disruption.

The Reformist Mirage and the Public Discontent

Even the so-called “reformists,” once hailed as harbingers of change, have been co-opted into the system, pledging allegiance to Khamenei in a desperate bid to remain within the regime’s fold. Their promises of moderation ring hollow, as they too are mere pawns in the grand game of power, their aspirations for reform sacrificed at the altar of self-preservation.

As the protests of the past seven to eight years have demonstrated, the chasm between the regime and the people of Iran has grown ever wider. International isolation, coupled with the regime’s conflict with Israel and its support for terrorist groups across the Shiite Crescent, have further eroded its credibility and legitimacy.

Ali Khamenei, the self-proclaimed “Supreme Leader,” cuts a pathetic figure — a vindictive, narcissistic, performative, and delusional clown — clinging to the status quo with a desperation that borders on the absurd. His preferred choice for the presidency is likely to be a candidate from the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), further entrenching the regime’s authoritarian grip.

The next president will undoubtedly be chosen from among the candidates from the IRGC or the Ministry of Intelligence, as the IRGC is adamant about not weakening its Islamic terrorism network (Islamic Resistance) in any way. The regime has drawn its swords; it has no intention of compromising. The presidential debates in Iran are set to be broadcast on the regime’s television networks shortly. It’s important to note that the primary audience for the candidates is not the Iranian public, but rather Khamenei himself. The candidates are keen on winning his favor by any means necessary.

As Iran seemingly transitions towards a junta-like regime, the ten critical aspects defining this shift include military dominance, authoritarian mullah rule, heightened suppression of opposition, centralized power, drastic curtailment of freedoms, rigorous control of information and censorship, utilization of military force, mafia-style economic dominance, rampant human rights violations, and continued international isolation.

The Path Forward: Regime Change or Perpetual Oppression

It is vital to recognize that both the regime’s hardliners and the so-called moderates are merely two sides of the same coin, endorsing suppression, terrorism, and propaganda. The prevailing discourse of regime change significantly outweighs the rhetoric of electoral participation in this authoritarian theatre. The Iranian populace, largely indifferent and disenchanted, seeks alternatives beyond the stagnant and unyielding dichotomy of reformists and hardliners. The regime’s quest is self-preservation, but Iranian society has already moved beyond both factions.

As Iran teeters on the brink of becoming a full-fledged military junta, the writing is on the wall — the regime’s stranglehold on power, its suppression of dissent, its control over information and censorship, its human rights violations, and its international isolation are all hallmarks of a system that has long since lost its legitimacy.

The discourse of “overthrowing and regime change” has become the rallying cry for a populace that has grown weary of the empty promises and hollow rhetoric of the ruling elite.

Still, as the Iranian regime remains in power — and grows more desperate — this increases the threat against the US and the West. The regime in Tehran will continue to use terrorism and its military proxies to sew chaos in the regime, and ensure it always comes out on top.

It is time for the world to recognize that the path forward for Iran lies not in the perpetuation of the farcical charade of dictatorial rule, but in the embrace of genuine democratic change, one that respects the will of the people and restores their fundamental rights and freedoms.

As the world watches, the imperative for recognizing and addressing the true challenges posed by Iran’s strategic maneuvers becomes not just necessary, but urgent.

Erfan Fard is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. Twitter@EQFARD.

The post Iran’s Sham Elections and the Rise of a Military Junta: A Threat to US Interests first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Herzog Confirms Behind-the-Scenes Negotiations with Hamas – Deal ‘Possible’

Israeli President Isaac Herzog looks on during a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, not pictured, in Washington, DC, on Oct. 25, 2022. Stefani Reynolds/Pool via REUTERS

i24 NewsPresident Isaac Herzog revealed on Sunday that contacts are ongoing between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and hostage release deal.

In a conversation with Yael Alexander, the mother of the abductee Edan Alexander who has been held captive for 422 days by Hamas, Herzog said that “there are negotiations behind the scenes – and it is possible.”

“I reiterate the call – now, after the agreement in Lebanon, it’s time to make a deal and bring the captives home,” Herzog said.

His meeting comes after Hamas released a video over the weekend showing Edan Alexander, an American-Israeli who was captured on October 7, 2023, while serving in the IDF. The video showed him pleading for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President-Elect Donald Trump to secure a deal.

“There are negotiations with a bitter and cruel enemy whose entire purpose in the video was to demoralize us all,” he said. “On the contrary – I think this video gave us a lot of strength.”

“I had a sleepless night,” Yael Alexander said – “Edan, his voice. and the video which plays continuously. You can see from the video that Edan is going through hell, he is screaming and his eyes look sad, but this gave me a lot of strength – Edan strengthened us with his call to us. We released this video, so everyone can see – Edan is alive, and many other captives are alive and the time has come to do something and release them.”

Out of the 101 hostages held in Gaza, estimates range as to the number still living, with some going as low as two dozen.

The post Herzog Confirms Behind-the-Scenes Negotiations with Hamas – Deal ‘Possible’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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The Voice of Jacob

Chabad Rabbi Zvi Kogan. Photo: @Chabad/X.

JNS.orgThe Jewish world is grieving the horrific murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the United Arab Emirates. A gentle ambassador of Judaism, his young life was snuffed out by the perpetrators of evil. We grieve with his young widow, his parents and his family. May God grant them strength, solace and only simcha (“happiness”) in the future.

In this week’s Torah portion, Toldot, we read of the birth of twin sons to Isaac and Rebecca. These twins could not have been less identical. Genesis 25:27 tells us, “The boys grew; Esau became an expert hunter, a man of the field, while Jacob was a guileless man, dwelling in the tents (of Torah).”

Esau was a wild man, hunting animals as well as women. Jacob was a student of Torah. One was a gladiator, the other a sage. Esau would become the father of Rome, the destroyers of our temple, while Jacob went on to become one of the founding fathers of our faith, the patriarch who fathered the 12 tribes of Israel.

Who should we want our children to emulate: the wild warrior or the gentle scholar?

“The voice is the voice of Jacob, and the hands are the hands of Esau,” said Isaac when he was going to bestow the all-important blessings to his son and heir apparent. Jacob is forever represented by the soft voice of the Torah, of wisdom, reason and ethics. Esau, however, is not symbolized by the voice but by the violent hands that strike out and hurt others.

Jewish heroes have always been the peaceful giants of philosophy, wisdom, ethics and morals. Violent murderers are the antithesis of everything we stand for.

I feel that there is a danger today, when our heroes are our Israel Defense Forces soldiers, pilots and naval officers, as they surely should be. They are superheroes of body and soul. Every time a young man or woman puts on a Tzahal uniform, they put their lives on the line. They are prepared to give their lives to defend our homeland and our people. The most secular kibbutznik becomes a tzaddik, the holy of holies, when he makes that courageous commitment.

In fact, the Sheloh—Rabbi Isaiah Horowitz (1558-1628)—wrote that at the holiest moment of the year, on Yom Kippur, at the very climax of the Neilah service when we shout out Shema Yisrael (“Hear O Israel”), we should have in mind to give our life for God, Al Kiddush Hashem “to sanctify his name,” and it will be considered as if we actually did.

Those courageous chayalim make that pledge daily. And far too many have sacrificed their lives in the current war against terror. So it is entirely appropriate that they should be our superheroes. But the inherent danger here is that our children and the younger generation idealize war and military action, heroic though it may be. These wars of defense are a regrettable necessity in our neck of the woods. And today, sadly, Jews everywhere need to be able to defend themselves.

While we honor, cherish and admire our chayalim, they themselves would much rather be at their desktops, in the library or the yeshivah instead of on the front lines.

We dare not forget who we really are, the children of Jacob, B’nai Yisrael. Jacob is our eternal role model. Esau is the antithesis of everything we stand for.

Yes, believe it or not, Jews are pacifists. We are peace-loving people despite the scandalously libelous claims of genocide against us. Our enemies at the United Nations won’t acknowledge it, but it’s who we are.

Yes, we need the IDF, and we need it to be strong and fearless. But that is an unfortunate necessity, not an ideal.

Rabbi Zvi Kogan was a faithful scion of Jacob. His life was cut short by the hands of Esau. Perhaps the appropriate response to this tragedy would be to emulate his ways and enhance our own observance of this sacred ideal or to encourage another to embrace it.

May the voice of Jacob forever drown out and overpower the tumultuous, blood-stained hands of Esau. And may our reluctant warriors be able to go home and resume their gentle lives in peace and security.

The post The Voice of Jacob first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Unable to Destroy Israel Militarily, Its Enemies Resort to Lawfare

An exterior view of the International Criminal Court in the Hague, Netherlands, March 31, 2021. Photo: REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw

JNS.orgJerusalem has decided to appeal the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) decision to issue warrants for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant. Israel submitted an announcement to the ICC on Wednesday regarding its intention, along with a demand to delay the warrants’ implementation.

In its decision, the ICC said there were reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution and starvation as weapons of war as part of a “widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza.”

Netanyahu has called the accusation a “modern Dreyfus trial.”

Once again, the Jews have been placed in the docket, this time as antisemites seek to punish Israel on trumped-up charges of “genocide” against the Palestinian people, he said.

Netanyahu met in Jerusalem on Wednesday with U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who updated him on the efforts he is advancing in Congress against the ICC and countries that cooperate with it.

Amb. Alan Baker, director of the Institute for Contemporary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and the head of the Global Law Forum, told JNS that practically, “assuming states agree to honor the arrest warrants, despite their being inherently invalid and ultra vires [running against] the ICC statute, they could theoretically try to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant if they enter their territory.”

In a statement published on Wednesday, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said Jerusalem’s notice of appeal “shows in detail to what degree the decision to issue the arrest warrants was baseless and without any factual or legal foundation whatsoever.”

Israel denies the authority of the ICC and the legitimacy of the warrants issued against the prime minister and the former defense minister, the statement continued.

Should the court reject the appeal, it will underscore to Israel’s friends in the United States and elsewhere the ICC’s bias against the Jewish state, it added.

The court lacks jurisdiction in the case for several reasons.

First, Israel is not a party to the Rome Statute that established the court, and second because Israel has its own independent, robust judiciary. Third, Palestine is not a state and does not meet the criteria for statehood under international law.

By calling for the arrest of Israel’s leaders, the ICC is violating the Rome Statute, which clearly states that complementarity is the crucial factor in such a decision.

Since Israel has a robust judicial system, it is unnecessary and unlawful for the ICC to involve itself in Israel’s internal matters, and by doing so the court breaches its foundational principles.

Furthermore, as a recent Wall Street Journal editorial noted, “The charge of deliberate starvation is absurd. Israel has facilitated the transfer of more than 57,000 aid trucks and 1.1 million tons of aid [into Gaza], even though Hamas’s rampant theft means Israel is provisioning its battlefield enemy, something the law can’t require.”

The warrant also, absurdly, calls for the arrest of Hamas leader Ibrahim al-Masri, otherwise known as Mohammed Deif, whom Israel and Hamas both say was killed in an Israeli airstrike in July.

By naming him together with Israel’s leaders and thereby feigning even-handedness, the ICC has only demonstrated morally repugnant equivalence.

The Wall Street Journal also highlighted the case of Alice Wairimu Nderitu, the U.N. Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide. After she declared that the war against Hamas does not meet the qualifications for genocide, the United Nations announced that her contract will not be renewed, though it has denied the two things are linked.

According to Nderitu, the term “genocide” encapsulates the Holocaust, the Hutus’ mass murder of Tutsis in Rwanda, the Serbian attacks on Bosnian Muslims and the killings being carried out in Sudan.

“As a legal matter, establishing a pattern of violence as a genocide requires demonstrating intent. Israel’s campaign of self-defense doesn’t qualify,” the Journal‘s editorial noted.

The court’s baseless case against Israel’s leaders, coupled with Nderitu’s dismissal, demonstrates that the ICC is abusing the law for political means.

Several world leaders, including President Joe Biden, have harshly criticized the ICC decision.

Biden stated on Thursday evening that warrants were “outrageous.”

Rep. Mike Waltz, tapped by President-elect Donald Trump as National Security Advisor, tweeted, “The ICC has no credibility and these allegations have been refuted by the U.S. government. Israel has lawfully defended its people & borders from genocidal terrorists. You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January.”

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has invited Netanyahu to visit his country, assuring him he faces no risk of arrest.

While ambiguous at first, France has declared it will not enforce the warrants as Israel is not a signatory to the ICC.

Some analysts have questioned whether France’s decision was linked to the ceasefire announced Wednesday between Hezbollah and Israel.

Famed lawyer Alan Dershowitz has announced he is assembling a “dream team” to defend Israel in The Hague.

This support is crucial because so much of the international community has fallen for the widespread anti-Israel propaganda.

Hala Rharrit, a former U.S. State Department diplomat who has made her anti-Israel opinions well known, said in an Al-Jazeera interview that most of the world is feeling that “finally, finally, there is a sense that the international community is taking action, far little too late.”

She said that in the State Department, “secretly, many American diplomats are celebrating this.”

Rharrit resigned in April in protest over Biden’s support for Israel.

Several world leaders have condoned the ICC decision.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the ICC warrants “courageous.”

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said, “The states that signed the Rome convention are obliged to implement the decision of the court. It’s not optional.”

Some experts have questioned whether the warrant and its implications could prevent civilized nations from fighting terrorism.

“If this progresses to a large-scale issuance of arrest warrants for a wider range of military people and politicians, it  could certainly serve as a warning to states involved in fighting terror,” said Amb. Baker.

“But this issue is more of a blatant Israel-directed issue and would not necessarily be used against other states fighting terror,” he added.

According to Natasha Hausdorff, legal director of UK Lawyers for Israel Charitable Trust, “Every phrase of every sentence” in the court’s warrant “was in fact false.”

In a conversation with Matt Frei of Leading Britain’s Conversation (LBC), Hausdorff provided a stinging rebuke to the ICC. “One example is that in furtherance of this allegation of starvation, the prosecutor relied on a report that suggested that famine might come to parts of the Gaza Strip,” she said.

“That report was subsequently debunked by a Famine Review Committee report that indicated it had been based on insufficient or incomplete information and it drew implausible conclusions,” she said.

“The overall conclusion of that process and also from the press release the court put out on Thursday is that they have made that determination to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant on the basis of this slew of false information,” she said.

Should Israel be approaching this challenge differently?

According to Baker, Israel needs to show the countries that are party to the ICC statute “that the issuance of the warrants is ultra vires the terms of the statute since the ICC cannot exercise jurisdiction in the territory of a non-state entity that has no sovereign territory.”

He added that it is “widely acknowledged that no state of Palestine exists, and the fact that the Palestinian leadership has manipulated the United Nations and ICC to treat them as if they are a state doesn’t alter the basic legal and political fact that there is no state of Palestine. Hence the ICC cannot be given jurisdiction by a non-state, and cannot issue arrest warrants.”

“Also,” he said, “as Israel is not a party to the ICC statute, its senior officials enjoy state and diplomatic immunity and thus cannot be arrested.”

The post Unable to Destroy Israel Militarily, Its Enemies Resort to Lawfare first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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