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Israel Estimates Hezbollah Will Strike Before Iran
Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters through a screen during a rally commemorating the annual Hezbollah Martyrs’ Day, in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Photo: Reuters/Aziz Taher
JNS.org — Israel remains on high alert for potential attacks by Iran and its regional terror proxies, with the security establishment assessing that Hezbollah will strike first.
Both the Islamic Republic and its Lebanese terror army have vowed revenge for the targeted killings last week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Israel’s Channel 12 News reported on Wednesday that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah could see a window of opportunity to initiate an attack in the coming days. A large-scale intelligence effort is underway to identify the timing and nature of the response, according to the report.
Nasrallah said in a speech on Tuesday that the terror group will retaliate for the Shukr assassination. Several hours before the speech, Al Akhbar, a pro-Hezbollah newspaper in Beirut, published a front-page article suggesting that Hezbollah would likely target Tel Aviv.
The newspaper’s editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin wrote that Nasrallah believes there is maneuvering room in terms of Israeli civilians because civilians were killed during the Shukr strike in southern Beirut.
“If Hezbollah can choose targets, it is possible that it will target Tel Aviv and civilians might be harmed on the margins. The effective thing will be to hit a significant center of the organization that made the decision about the assassination [of Shukr] and took part in it,” he wrote, as quoted by Axios on Wednesday.
There are several sensitive sites in the Tel Aviv area, including the headquarters of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) and the Mossad, as well as several key military bases in the northern part of the city. The bases are all close to or within civilian neighborhoods.
Israel warns of severe consequences
Jerusalem is not interested in an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but civilian casualties on the Israeli side would cross a red line, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing two Israeli officials.
IDF and Israeli Defense Ministry officials have warned their counterparts at the Pentagon and US Central Command (CENTCOM) that since Hezbollah began its cross-border attacks on Oct. 8, its rocket fire has been inaccurate, according to the report.
This was highlighted by the Hezbollah rocket that hit a soccer pitch in the Golan Druze town of Majdal Shams last month, killing 12 children. Hezbollah’s target had been a military base.
The Israeli officials said that the risk involved with long-range surface-to-surface missiles is greater as they carry much larger warheads, with the potential for many more civilian casualties.
“In the internal discussions with the US, Israel stressed that the cost of another Hezbollah mishap would be heavy and that Hezbollah would pay a disproportionate price if it harmed civilians as part of its retaliation,” a senior Israeli official said.
Iran may be reconsidering its attack plans
Meanwhile, Tehran is reportedly reconsidering its level of response against the backdrop of warnings that Israel will counter-attack strongly, Politico reported on Wednesday. The report also cited US officials as saying that while Washington does expect an Iranian response, it might not happen in the near future.
Intensive American diplomacy and an increased military posture in the Middle East may have also prompted Tehran to reconsider a major retaliatory strike against Israel, according to The Washington Post.
Another factor in Iran’s decision-making may be new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
According to a report in the London-based Iran International, Pezeshkian has pleaded with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to avoid a direct attack on Israel, warning that it could threaten his presidency and lead to devastation of Iran’s infrastructure, energy and economy.
Pezeshkian reportedly told the supreme leader that a harsh Israeli counter-attack could lead to the collapse of the regime.
However, “despite the grave warnings … Khamenei remained noncommittal during the session, neither supporting nor opposing Pezeshkian’s concerns,” according to the report.
Israel continues preparations for attacks
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited IDF Home Front Command on Wednesday to discuss plans for warning citizens of any impending attack and giving emergency instructions to the public.
On Sunday, the Home Front Command unveiled a new technology to warn civilians in the case of a large-scale national emergency, similar to the U.S. Wireless Emergency Alerts system.
The “personal message” alert technology allows the army to notify all cell phones in a specific area without the need for any action on citizens’ part. The warning notification will be immediately displayed on mobile phone screens, accompanied by a loud ringtone.
Home Front Command has also moved search and rescue forces to Tel Aviv and other cities in preparation for potential Iranian and Hezbollah attacks, the IDF said on Tuesday.
The Ram Battalion (668) of the IDF’s Search and Rescue Brigade (60th) has repositioned itself in Tel Aviv, the economic and cultural hub of Israel along the central Mediterranean coastline.
The Ram Battalion would respond to any building collapses or other destruction.
According to the IDF, rapid rescue teams have also been deployed to Haifa, the Haifa bay area and several cities in the south and center of the country.
Some Israeli municipalities are preparing to turn underground parking lots into emergency shelters in the event of a sustained wave of attacks from Iran and its terror proxies.
David Aharoni, director of the security and emergency department at the Tel Aviv Municipality, told Channel 12 that residents are encouraged to first use the private shelters in the buildings, and then if they are outside, public shelters maintained by the municipality or in shelters in schools and community centers.
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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