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Israel Is Not Defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon – It’s Only Laying the Groundwork for the Next War
Smoke billows over Khiam, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, Oct. 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Karamallah Daher
Following the unexpected success of the series of blows inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah’s high command in August and September, the IDF began a ground operation in Lebanon.
The confusion and embarrassment that gripped Hezbollah undoubtedly damaged not only its strategic and systemic command capabilities, but also the functioning of its operational formations. The organization’s rate of rocket launches in late September was much lower than expected. More importantly, the quality of those launches — the ability to concentrate barrages of complex rockets and missiles to overcome Israeli air defenses, and the ability to locate and accurately hit targets in Israel — was significantly diminished.
Precisely in light of the enemy’s disequilibrium, the modest goals of the “Northern Arrows” operation stand out. From everything that has been said and published, the operation is intended to return the residents of the north to their homes through the cleansing of the first line of Lebanese villages from Radwan Force attack-supporting infrastructure.
This relatively modest plan suits the Israeli government’s political goals as well as the Americans’ desire to limit the war. A limited plan may entail limited risks in principle, but from a narrow military point of view, this particular plan is based on simplistic work assumptions and entails great operational risks. A clear definition of the work assumptions implicit in the plan will make it possible to critically assess whether the situation has changed and whether the plan should accordingly be changed.
According to the IDF, a force numbering about two divisions (accurate to early October) entered the strip of Lebanese villages very close to the Israeli border with the aim of destroying the Radwan infrastructure there. In other words:
- The IDF launched an operation against infrastructure, not against an enemy.
- As long as the enemy allows it, the IDF will prefer to carry out the mission without combat confrontation.
Although Hezbollah’s top command level was neutralized and a significant part of its rocket and missile arrays destroyed, the organization’s ground army in southern Lebanon was only slightly damaged. The IDF’s announcements about the operation’s limited objectives were intended for Israeli and American ears, but also signaled the enemy. The implied message was this: “If you refrain from opposing IDF forces in the limited operation, its expansion will be avoided. This will allow Hezbollah’s southern units to survive.”
If that was indeed the message, then it is clear that Israel’s strategic goal is to end the war with an international agreement after the destruction of Hezbollah’s infrastructure on the border line.
From a purely military point of view, the Northern Command’s operational concept here is problematic. The deployment of the IDF on a very thin strip, in the face of a Hezbollah army that maintains significant military strength, including anti-tank and mortar capabilities, raids and ambushes, exposes the brigades to dangerous enemy initiatives. At least one battle so far, in which almost 50 fighters of the Egoz battalion’s combat team were injured, illustrated this risk, and since early October IDF casualties have grown significantly.
The IDF is trying to overcome this weakness by securing the forces with concentrated air effort and firepower. But from a military standpoint, it would have been more correct to capture the Hezbollah army in southern Lebanon through rapid divisional moves deep into the south and encircle the enemy based on the river lines (the Litani, Zaharni or Avali).
Defeating an enemy in battle is usually based on the principle of reducing friction with the hard shell and then quickly and aggressively surrounding and squeezing it. In this instance, the encirclement of Hezbollah’s military force and threat to destroy it would offer a better chance, if not a promise, of a) continuing to deny the enemy a return to operational equilibrium and b) bringing about the disintegration of the tactical arrays in the south in the same way the command arrays collapsed in Beirut.
On the micro-tactical level, quick and decisive divisional moves are supposed to reduce the main threat to IDF forces: advanced anti-tank missiles. In general, fast combat movement makes it more difficult for the defender and reduces his ambush and shooting opportunities. More concretely, as the days pass from the beeper blasts and the broad Air Force attacks on the bank of targets in the south, the more likely it is that the Hezbollah units will recover and prepare better for battle.
Despite the inherent risks, the strategy of clearing a narrow buffer strip and ending the war in the north with an agreement is a legitimate choice. Hezbollah’s southern army is a significant military threat capable of exacting a heavy price from the IDF. Hezbollah knows full well that after a year of fighting in Gaza, the IDF is not the fresh, capable army, armed to the teeth and furious, that it was at the beginning of the war. It is very possible that the enemy will cooperate with the plan and take the chance of preserving its power over an attempt to restore its lost dignity. It is also possible that that is Iran’s directive.
Either way, the assumptions underlying the current plan must be defined and their validity examined. One must also prepare for an immediate change of the plan in the north if it turns out that the enemy has chosen not to cooperate. In fact, just preparing the broader ground move may have a restraining effect on Hezbollah’s ground forces in the south.
We must define the situation clearly:
- The IDF went into Lebanon to fight the enemy’s infrastructure, not the enemy itself.
- Under these circumstances, combat contact will usually be initiated by the enemy.
- The current move is not optimal in terms of securing IDF forces. Israel is allowing Hezbollah’s defense and attack units, which are mostly complete, to watch the IDF’s moves and initiate action accordingly.
- De-equilibrium is, by definition, a temporary matter. As time passes, the impact of the inflicted blows weakens and operational cohesion returns. Restoring self-respect in the face of operational opportunities in the field may turn out to be a growing logic among the enemy forces in the south.
- Choosing a strategy that does not seek Hezbollah’s military defeat will inevitably leave the organization a military force in Lebanon.
If the risks inherent in points 1-4 materialize in several consecutive events, then the option of encirclement and ground decision of the Hezbollah army in the south should be realized quickly. It must be prepared for, both as an operational response and as a reserved threat to the enemy.
The fifth point concerns Israel’s strategy. At the moment, the strategy strives for the demobilization of South Lebanon not by force but by some kind of political agreement, apparently in the spirit of 1701 (the UN Security Council resolution that ended the Second Lebanon War). As we have bitter experience of the unreliability of foreign demobilization mechanisms, the true meaning of Israel’s strategy is that the current Lebanon War is not an end to the conflict with Hezbollah but simply a prelude to the next war.
Again, this is not necessarily a wrong strategy. Despite the achievements of the strikes in the summer, Hezbollah is not defeated, and its ground units in the south are certainly still capable of battle. Israel, meanwhile, is fighting in seven arenas. Also, to a significant degree, the prolongation of the war in Lebanon serves Hamas in Gaza, where the pressure has been eased. It is also difficult to see a clear ending mechanism for the direct war that has started between Iran and Israel. Each strategy has advantages and disadvantages, and the important thing is to understand them.
The current strategy strives to shorten the long war we have fallen into. The thinking underlying this strategy is that the current Lebanon war will not be the last. As ever, Hezbollah will prepare for the next war while learning from its failures in the current round. In the future, Israel will not be able to assume that a series of secret operations will provide it with the same benefits. It is also possible that the bank of targets will not be replenished at the same rate in light of information security lessons the enemy is now learning.
The current war is being waged while counter-terrorism tactics, such as eliminating senior commanders, are yielding surprising systemic achievements. But even with these successes, Israel is choosing not to take advantage of a rare opportunity to overwhelm Hezbollah’s army in the south. This choice does not show much self-confidence in the purely military field.
If the IDF is to defeat Hezbollah’s future military power in the south and learn lessons from the current war, it will have to be not only more determined but also more adaptable. The current Israeli caution stems, at least in part, from an understanding that on the military level, our forces are dangerously vulnerable to enemy capabilities and not effective enough to cleanse the south without sinking into an eternal guerilla war.
The current strategy may be successful. It is possible that we will return the residents of the north and reach an agreement. But such a success, should it occur, will mark not only the operational achievement of the covert and air strikes that landed on the enemy but also their limitations.
No one will dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon for us. And if a significant part of its power is preserved, its deterrence of Israel will improve, and Israel will not be able to enforce demilitarization by force. Hezbollah’s survival in defeat will simply turn over the hourglass for the next clash with a smarter enemy that is eager to restore its honor.
The current war marks, therefore, the opening of the race between the parties to prepare for the next war. This may be the decisive conflict not only in the north, but also for the future of the axis. The IDF must develop a clear and distinct military decision-making capacity — a military capacity, not just another list of methods of fighting terrorism.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal recently retired from military service as commander of the Dado Center for Multidisciplinary Military Thinking. His book The Battle Before the War (MOD 2022, in Hebrew) dealt with the IDF’s need to change, innovate and renew a decisive war approach. His next book, Renewal – The October 7th War and Israel’s Defense Strategy, is about to be published by Levin Publications. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Rashida Tlaib Introduces Resolution to Mandate Federal Recognition of Palestinian ‘Nakba’
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) addresses attendees as she takes part in a protest calling for a ceasefire in Gaza outside the US Capitol, in Washington, DC, US, Oct. 18, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Leah Millis
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) on Wednesday introduced a resolution recognizing the 77th anniversary of the “nakba,” the Arabic term for “catastrophe” used by Palestinians and anti-Israel activists to refer to the establishment of the modern state of Israel in 1948.
“The nakba never ended. Today we are witnessing the Israeli apartheid regime carry out genocide in Gaza. It is a campaign to erase Palestinians from existence,” Tlaib said in a statement.
“War Criminal Netanyahu,” she continued, referring to Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “has threatened to ethnically cleanse the entire Palestinian population in Gaza, annex the land, and permanently occupy it. As we mark the 77th anniversary of the nakba, we honor all of those killed since the ethnic cleansing of Palestine began, and the Palestinians who were forced from their homes and violently displaced from their land.”
Co-sponsors of the bill include Democratic Reps. André Carson (IN), Summer Lee (PA), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), Ilhan Omar (MN), Ayanna Pressley (MA), Delia Ramirez (IL), Lateefah Simon (CA), and Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ).
The resolution does not mention the Jewish people’s millennia-long connection to the land of Israel or any instances of Palestinian terrorism against the Jewish state.
“Nakba refers not only to a historical event but to an ongoing process of Israel’s expropriation of Palestinian land and its dispossession of the Palestinian people that continues to this day, including the systematic destruction of Palestinian homes, the construction and expansion of illegal settlements, and the confinement of Palestinians to ever-shrinking areas of land,” the bill reads.
“It is the sense of the House of Representatives that it is the policy of the United States to commemorate the nakba through official recognition and remembrance; denounce the ongoing nakba of the Palestinian people; [and] reject efforts to enlist, engage, or otherwise associate the United States government with denial of the nakba.”
Tlaib, the only Palestinian American woman in Congress, further repudiated the US as being “an accomplice” in the alleged ongoing “ethnic cleansing of Palestinians” by supporting Israel’s defensive military efforts.
Since entering Congress in 2018, Tlaib has established herself as one of the most vocal critics of Israel. She has repeatedly characterized Israel as an “apartheid state” and accused the Jewish state of transforming Gaza into an “open-air prison.”
In the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led slaughters in Israel, Tlaib ramped up her condemnations of the Jewish state. She was initially hesitant to condemn the terrorist attacks in Israel, in which 1,200 people were murdered and 250 hostages were kidnapped. However, Tlaib was among the first US lawmakers to accuse Israel of committing “genocide in Gaza. In most of her public statements regarding the war in Gaza, she has omitted any mention of the Hamas terrorist group. Moreover, the lawmaker has sparked backlash by attending multiple pro-Palestine events connected to terrorists.
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No Diploma for NYU Senior After Unauthorized Anti-Israel Commencement Speech
Students and professors attend the New York University (NYU) graduation ceremony at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City, US, May 15, 2025. Photo: Eduardo Munoz via Reuters Connect.
New York University is withholding the diploma of a senior student at the Gallatin School of Individualized Study who lied to the administration about the content of his commencement speech to conceal its claim of a genocide taking place in Gaza, an anti-Israel falsehood propagated by neo-Nazi groups and jihadist terror organizations.
“My moral and political commitments guide me to say that the only thing that is appropriate to say in this time and to a group this large is a recognition of the atrocities currently happening in Palestine” the student, Logan Rozos, said, delivering the unauthorized remarks to a din of acclamation from the audience. “I want to say that the genocide currently occurring is supported politically and militarily by the United States, is paid for by our tax dollars, and has been live streamed to our phones for the past 18 months.”
He continued, “I want to say that I condemn this genocide and complicity in this genocide.”
Rozos drew a trenchant rebuke from a university that has enacted a slew of policies to reduce antisemitic discrimination on its campuses. Since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel, a bloody invasion that started the war in Gaza, NYU has issued policies which acknowledge the “coded” subtleties of antisemitic speech and its use in discriminatory conduct that targets Jewish students and faculty.
“NYU strongly denounces the choice by a student at the Gallatin School’s graduation today — one of over 20 school graduation ceremonies across our campus — to misuse his role as student speaker to express his personal and one-sided political views,” university spokesman John Beckman said in a statement. “He lied about the speech he was going to deliver and violated the commitment he made to comply with our rules. The university is withholding his diploma while we pursue disciplinary actions.”
He continued, “NYU is deeply sorry that the audience was subjected to these remarks and this moment was stolen by someone who abused a privilege that was conferred upon him.”
Jewish civil rights groups rebuked Rozos as well, with the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) saying he uttered “divisive and false comments about the current Israel/Hamas war.” The group added, “We are thankful to the NYU administration for their strong condemnation and rather pursuit of disciplinary action.”
End Jew Hatred (EJH), writing to The Algemeiner, called on NYU to impose the severest disciplinary measure possible on Rozos: withholding his diploma in perpetuity as punishment for using so high an honor to spread lies that have been used to justify antisemitic violence and discrimination.
“It was right to denounce his deception and abuse of the platform, and it was essential to affirm that hate speech masquerading as political commentary has no place at a graduation ceremony,” the group said. “But that cannot be where it ends. The diploma must be permanently withheld. The full process — from Rozos’s selection to speech approval to mic control — demands transparency. And NYU must do more than punish a student; it must confront the climate that made this outburst possible.”
The conclusion of the 2024-2025 academic year has seen other attempts to place anti-Zionism at the center of the public’s attention.
A group of pro-Hamas students at Yale University recently vowed to starve themselves inside an administrative building until such time as officials agree to their demands that the university’s endowment be divested of any ties to Israel as well as companies that do business with it. However, Yale officials are refusing to even meet with the students, who have been told that their demonstration, held in Sheffield-Sterling-Strathcona Hall, is “in violation of university policy.”
At the University of Washington, in Seattle, over 30 members of a pro-Hamas student group calling itself “Super UW” were arrested for commandeering the university’s Interdisciplinary Engineering Building (IEB) to protest and demand the termination of the institution’s partnerships with The Boeing Company, whose armaments manufacturing they identified as a resource aiding Israel’s war to eradicate Hamas from Gaza.
The illegal demonstration involved students establishing blockades near the building using “bike rack[s] and chairs,” burning trash — while setting off sizable fires — that they then left unattended, and calling for violence against the police. Law enforcement officers eventually entered the building equipped with riot gear, including helmets and batons.
University officials’ tolerance for such disruptions is depleting.
Earlier this month, George Washington University suspended its Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) chapter until Spring 2026, punishing the group for a series of unauthorized demonstrations it held on school property last month. The move marked one of the severest disciplinary sanctions SJP has provoked from the GW administration since it began violating rules on peaceful expression and assembly, as well as targeting school officials for harassment, following Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre across southern Israel. Until next May, SJP is barred from advertising and may only convene to “complete sanctions or consult with their advisor,” according to a report by The GW Hatchet.
SJP will be placed on probation for one year after its suspension is lifted, the paper continued, during which it must request and acquire prior approval for any expressive activity. Additionally, members will be required to attend “teach-ins on university policy” for “ten consecutive semesters.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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Trump Announces $200 Billion in Deals During UAE Visit, AI Agreement Signed
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Yousif Al Obaidli, director of Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, as he tours the mosque grounds in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, May 15, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Brian Snyder
President Donald Trump on Thursday pledged to strengthen US ties to the United Arab Emirates and announced deals with the Gulf state totaling over $200 billion and the two countries also agreed to deepen cooperation in artificial intelligence.
After Trump’s meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the White House said he announced deals that included a $14.5 billion commitment from Etihad Airways to invest in 28 Boeing 787 and 777x aircraft powered by engines made by GE Aerospace.
The US Commerce Department said the two countries also agreed to establish a “US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership” framework and Trump and Sheikh Mohamed attended the unveiling of a new 5GW AI campus, which would be the largest outside the United States.
Sources have said the agreements will give the Gulf country expanded access to advanced artificial intelligence chips from the US after previously facing restrictions over Washington’s concerns that China could access the technology.
Trump began a visit to the UAE on the latest stage of a tour of wealthy Gulf states after hailing plans by Doha to invest $10 billion in a US military facility during a trip to Qatar.
“I have absolutely no doubt that the relationship will only get bigger and better,” Trump said in a meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
“Your wonderful brother came to Washington a few weeks ago and he told us about your generous statement as to the 1.4 trillion,” Trump said, referring to a UAE pledge to invest $1.4 trillion in the US over 10 years.
Trump was referring to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Sheikh Mohamed’s brother and the UAE’s national security adviser and chairman of two of Abu Dhabi’s deep-pocketed sovereign wealth funds.
The US president was met at the airport in Abu Dhabi by Sheikh Mohamed, and they visited the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, its white minarets and domes, impressive in the late-afternoon light.
“It is so beautiful,” Trump told reporters inside the mosque, which he said had been closed for the day.
“First time they closed it. It’s in honor of the United States. Better than in honor of me. Let’s give it to the country. That’s a great tribute.”
$200 BILLION IN NEW DEALS
A White House fact sheet said Trump had secured $200 billion in new US-UAE deals and accelerated the previously committed $1.4 trillion.
It said Emirates Global Aluminum would invest to develop a $4 billion primary aluminum smelter project in Oklahoma, while ExxonMobil Corp, Occidental Petroleum, and EOG Resources were partnering with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in expanded oil and natural gas production valued at $60 billion.
Sheikh Mohamed told Trump the UAE was “keen to continue and strengthen this friendship for the benefit of the two countries and peoples,” adding to Trump: “your presence here today, your excellency, the president, confirms that this keenness is mutual.”
Before his departure for the UAE, Trump said in a speech to US troops at the Al Udeid Air Base southwest of Doha that defense purchases signed by Qatar on Wednesday were worth $42 billion.
UAE has been seeking US help to make the wealthy Gulf nation a global leader in artificial intelligence.
The US has a preliminary agreement with the UAE to allow it to import 500,000 of Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips a year, starting this year, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
The deal would boost the UAE’s construction of data centers vital to developing AI models, although the agreement has provoked national security concerns among sectors of the US government.
The AI agreement “includes the UAE committing to invest in, build, or finance US data centers that are at least as large and as powerful as those in the UAE,” the White House said.
“The agreement also contains historic commitments by the UAE to further align their national security regulations with the United States, including strong protections to prevent the diversion of US-origin technology.”
Former US President Joe Biden’s administration had imposed strict oversight of exports of US AI chips to the Middle East and other regions. Among Biden’s fears were that the prized semiconductors would be diverted to China and buttress its military strength.
At the UAE presidential palace, Trump and Sheikh Mohamed could be seen in TV footage in conversation with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
Trump said he would probably return to Washington on Friday after a regional trip that began on Tuesday, although he said it was “almost destination unknown.” Trump had hinted he could stop in Istanbul for talks on Ukraine.
DEALS, DIPLOMACY
Other big business agreements have been signed during Trump’s four-day swing through the Gulf region, including a deal for Qatar Airways to purchase up to 210 Boeing widebody jets, a $600 billion commitment from Saudi Arabia to invest in the US and $142 billion in US arms sales to the kingdom.
The trip has also brought a flurry of diplomacy.
Trump said in Qatar that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had “sort of” agreed to the terms.
He also announced on Tuesday the US would remove longstanding sanctions on Syria and subsequently met with Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
He urged Sharaa to establish ties with Syria’s longtime foe Israel.
Trump has made improving ties with some Gulf countries a key goal of his administration. If all the proposed chip deals in Gulf states, and the UAE in particular, come together, the region would become a third power center in global AI competition after the United States and China.
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