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Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank

Israeli tanks are being moved, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in the Golan Heights, Sept. 22, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
The terms of the newly minted ceasefire agreement to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah amounts to a defeat for the Lebanese terrorist group, although the deal may be difficult to implement, according to two leading US think tanks.
The deal requires Israeli forces to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon, where they have been operating since early October, over the next 60 days. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army will enter these areas and ensure that Hezbollah retreats north of the Litani River, located some 18 miles north of the border with Israel. The United States and France, who brokered the agreement, will oversee compliance with its terms.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the implications of the deal on Tuesday in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.” Hezbollah, which wields significant political and military influence across Lebanon, is the chief proxy force of the Iranian regime.
In its analysis, ISW and CTP explained that the deal amounts to a Hezbollah defeat for two main reasons.
First, “Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF [Israel Defense Forces] military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims.”
Specifically, Hezbollah agreeing to a deal was previously contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza, but that changed after the past two months of Israeli military operations, during which the IDF has decimated much of Hezbollah’s leadership and weapons stockpiles through airstrikes while attempting to push the terrorist army away from its border with a ground offensive.
Additionally, the think tanks noted, “current Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has also previously expressed opposition to any stipulations giving Israel freedom of action inside Lebanon,” but the deal reportedly allows Israel an ability to respond to Hezbollah if it violates the deal.
Second, the think tanks argued that the agreement was a defeat for Hezbollah because it allowed Israel to achieve its war aim of making it safe for its citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel.
“IDF operations in Lebanese border towns have eliminated the threat of an Oct. 7-style offensive attack by Hezbollah into northern Israel, and the Israeli air campaign has killed many commanders and destroyed much of Hezbollah’s munition stockpiles,” according to ISW and CTP.
Some 70,000 Israelis living in northern Israel have been forced to flee their homes over the past 14 months, amid unrelenting barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah began its attacks last Oct. 8, one day after the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. The Jewish state had been exchanging fire with Hezbollah but intensified its military response over the past two months.
Northern Israelis told The Algemeiner this week that they were concerned the new ceasefire deal could open the door to future Hezbollah attacks, but at the same time the ceasefire will allow many of them the first opportunity to return home in a year.
ISW and CTP also noted in their analysis that Israel’s military operations have devastated Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure. According to estimates, at least 1,730 Hezbollah terrorists and upwards of 4,000 have been killed over the past year of fighting.
While the deal suggested a defeat of sorts for Hezbollah and the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations, ISW and CTP also argued that several aspects of the ceasefire will be difficult to implement.
“The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war,” they wrote.
Resolution 1701 called for the complete demilitarization of Hezbollah south of the Litani River and prohibited the presence of armed groups in Lebanon except for the official Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
This may be an issue because “neither the LAF nor the UN proved willing or able to prevent Hezbollah from reoccupying southern Lebanon and building new infrastructure. Some LAF sources, for example, have expressed a lack of will to enforce this ceasefire because they believe that any fighting with Hezbollah would risk triggering ‘civil war,’” the think tanks assessed.
Nevertheless, the LAF is going to deploy 5,000 troops to the country’s south in order to assume control of their own territory from Hezbollah.
However, the think tanks added, “LAF units have been in southern Lebanon since 2006, but have failed to prevent Hezbollah from using the area to attack Israel.”
The post Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Antisemites Target Synagogues in Spain, France Amid Surge in Jew Hatred Across Europe

The exterior wall of a synagogue in Girona, Spain, vandalized with antisemitic graffiti. Photo: Screenshot
Pro-Palestinian activists have vandalized synagogues in Spain and France in recent days, sparking public outrage and calls for authorities to step up protections.
These are only the latest incidents in a troubling wave of anti-Jewish hate crimes targeting Jewish communities across Europe which continues unabated.
On Thursday, the Jewish community of Girona, a city in Spain’s northeastern Catalonia region, filed a police complaint and urged authorities to take action after the outer wall of the city’s synagogue was defaced with an antisemitic slogan.
Unknown perpetrators defaced the synagogue’s walls with antisemitic graffiti, scrawling messages such as “Israel is a genocidal state, silence = complicity.”
The city’s Jewish community strongly condemned the incident, urging authorities to conduct a swift investigation, impose exemplary sanctions, and ensure robust security measures.
“Disguised as political activism, [this attack] seeks to stigmatize citizens for their faith — something intolerable in a democratic society,” the statement reads. “Tolerance and respect are values we must defend together.”
The European Jewish Association (EJA) also condemned the incident as a hate crime, urging the Spanish government to ensure the safety and protection of its Jewish citizens.
“This is yet another antisemitic attack, part of a wave we’ve seen daily for nearly two years,” the EJA wrote in a post on X.
This is what members of the Jewish community in Girona found this morning when they arrived at their synagogue to pray.
Antisemitic vandals had defaced the synagogue’s outer wall with the words:
“ISRAEL ESTAT GENOCIDA, SILENCI = CÒMPLICE”
Translation: “Israel is a genocidal… pic.twitter.com/ERj4z1hKOP— EJA – EIPA (@EJAssociation) September 4, 2025
In a separate incident, three pro-Palestinian activists were arrested on Thursday after trying to force their way into a synagogue in Nice, southeastern France, during an informational meeting on aliyah, the process of Jews immigrating to Israel.
According to local reports, several individuals attempted to forcibly enter the place of worship, sparking violent clashes and insults that left a pregnant woman injured.
Shortly after the incident, law enforcement arrested two women in their forties and a man in his sixties, taking them into custody as part of an investigation into aggravated violence.
The charges involve attacks on a vulnerable person, actions carried out by a group, religious motivation, and public religious insults.
Local authorities strongly condemned the act and announced that police officers would remain stationed outside the synagogue for as long as necessary.
Since the Hamas-led invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, antisemitic incidents have surged to alarming levels across Europe.
Jewish individuals have been facing a surge in hostility and targeted attacks, including vandalism of murals and businesses, as well as physical assaults.
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Iran’s Alliances With China, Russia Falter as Regime Faces Growing Isolation, Study Finds

Chinese Foreign Minister Wag Yi stands with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazeem Gharibabadi before a meeting regarding the Iranian nuclear issue at Diaoyutai State Guest House on March 14, 2025 in Beijing, China. Photo: Pool via REUTERS
As Iran continues to face major crises both at home and abroad, its ties to China and Russia are proving far weaker than they seem, leaving the regime to confront the fallout largely on its own, according to a new study.
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an Israeli think tank, has released a report examining how the 12-day war with Israel in June exposed the limits of Iran’s alliances with China and Russia.
In the study, authors Raz Zimmt and Danny Citrinowicz note that both China and Russia favored cautious diplomacy over direct support at a time when the Iranian regime was most vulnerable.
“The policy of Moscow and Beijing, which consisted of fairly mild condemnations of the Israeli and US strikes in Iran, sparked criticism and disappointment in Tehran,” the report explains.
“It also reinforced the Iranian assessment that its reliance on Russia and China remains limited, particularly in the event of a military confrontation with Israel and the United States,” it continues.
Earlier this week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian traveled to Beijing, joining Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, as the three nations aim to project a united front against the West.
The high-profile gathering came after Pezeshkian and Putin held talks in China on Monday on the sidelines of the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin.
During a joint press conference, the Iranian president hailed Tehran’s cooperation with Moscow as “highly valuable,” adding that continued implementation of their 20-year treaty signed earlier this year would further strengthen ties and expand collaboration.
Putin also noted that the relationship between the two countries is “growing increasingly friendly and expanding” amid mounting pressure and sanctions from Western countries.
According to Zimmt and Citrinowicz, Iran has little room to maneuver, even more so now as the regime faces the imminent threat of UN sanctions being reimposed due to efforts by Britain, France, and Germany, forcing it to rely on its fragile alliances with Russia and China.
“It is clear that for now, Iran has no viable alternative to continuing its political, economic, and security partnership, as limited as it may be, with Russia and China, especially given the escalating tensions between Tehran and Europe,” the paper explains.
“Likewise, Russia and China, who view Iran as a junior partner in a coalition against the West and the United States, have no real alternative to Tehran, and they are expected to continue the partnership as long as it serves their interests,” it adds.
The authors argue that China and Russia could readily sacrifice Iran to further their strategic goals, including strengthening ties with Washington.
The study comes just days after an Iranian official accused Russia without evidence of providing intelligence to Israel during the 12-day Middle Eastern war in June which allegedly helped the Jewish state target and destroy Iran’s air defense systems.
Mohammad Sadr, a member of Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council and close adviser to former President Mohammad Khatami, claimed Israel’s precise strikes on Iranian air defense systems were suspicious.
He noted Russia’s refusal to support Iran during the war, saying that Moscow had shown a “bias in favor of Israel” and that the recent conflict demonstrated the “strategic agreement with Russia is nonsense.”
“This war proved that the strategic alliance with Moscow is worthless,” Sadr said during an interview with BBC Persian, referring to the 12-day war between Iran and Israel.
“We must not think that Russia will come to Iran’s aid when the time comes,” he continued.
At the SCO summit in Tianjin earlier this week, Tehran also described its ties with China as “flourishing,” pointing to a strategic pact similar to the one it signed with Russia.
According to some reports, China may be helping Iran rebuild its decimated air defenses following the 12-day war with Israel.
China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, with nearly 90 percent of Iran’s crude and condensate exports going to Beijing. The two sides also recently signed a 25-year cooperation agreement, held joint naval drills, and continued to trade Iranian oil despite US sanctions.
“It should be noted that despite the 25-year cooperation agreement signed between Tehran and Beijing in March 2021, the partnership between the two countries remains very limited, and China does not provide solutions to most of Iran’s economic difficulties, including the need for infrastructure investment,” the INSS study explains.
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US Lawmakers Urge Trump to Restrict Visas for Iran’s President, Other Regime Officials Ahead of UN General Assembly

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during a meeting in Ilam, Iran, June 12, 2025. Photo: Iran’s Presidential website/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
A bipartisan group of US lawmakers is urging President Donald Trump to block or sharply restrict visas for Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and other top Iranian officials traveling to New York this month for the United Nations General Assembly, warning that Tehran will use the global platform to disguise its escalating repression at home.
In a letter sent to Trump on Thursday, 40 members of Congress pointed to Iran’s recent human rights record, which includes nearly 1,500 executions in the past year, and accused Pezeshkian’s government of openly threatening to repeat the mass killings of dissidents that scarred the country in 1988.
“Immediately following the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the Iranian regime escalated its widespread internal crackdown, arbitrarily arresting hundreds of ethnic minorities, civil society leaders, women’s rights activists, and others,” the lawmakers wrote. They described Iran’s leaders as “criminals” who “support terrorism” and “sow hatred and instability across the Middle East.”
The letter was signed by an unusually broad coalition of Republicans and Democrats, including House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (NY), as well as Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), Deborah Ross (R-NC), and Val Hoyle (D-OR), underscoring how concern about Iran’s hostility toward the US and its allies continues to cut across party lines.
Drawing a distinction between the regime and the Iranian people who support democracy, the lawmakers asked Trump to make a strong statement against a country that US intelligence agencies have long labeled the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism.
“We respectfully urge you to restrict the Iranian delegation’s freedom of movement, and, to the extent possible, refrain from issuing visas to key delegation members, including for its President, Masoud Pezeshkian,” the letter stated.
It continued, “We urge you to take a strong stand against the Iranian regime’s ongoing support for terrorism and human rights abuses, in line with your dedication toward ‘Peace through Strength’ and the maximum pressure campaign against the regime. We look forward to working you to further
oppose the destructive and destabilizing influence of the government of Iran and support the
Iranian people on the world stage.”
The lawmakers’ request comes as the Trump administration weighs new restrictions on several UN delegations ahead of the annual gathering. According to a State Department memo obtained by the Associated Press, the US is considering limiting the movements of officials not just from Iran, but also from Sudan and Zimbabwe. The department is also considering limiting the movements of officials from Brazil, whose president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, traditionally opens the General Assembly.
The proposals also suggest that Iranian diplomats be barred from shopping at Costco or Sam’s Club without explicit permission from the State Department, according to the AP report. Diplomats from Iran have historically relied on those stores to buy affordable goods unavailable in their home country. By contrast, the memo indicates that delegates from Syria may be granted a waiver, reflecting shifting US priorities in the region.
Under the UN Headquarters Agreement, the US is obligated to grant visas to foreign officials attending UN functions. But successive administrations have imposed restrictions on the travel of adversarial delegations, typically confining them to Manhattan and surrounding boroughs. The latest proposals would go further, potentially requiring advance State Department approval for movements and limiting access to certain businesses.