Some 300 new immigrants from France arrive on a special “Aliyah Flight” organized by the Jewish Agency, at Ben-Gurion Airport in central Israel on July 23, 2018. More French Jews are expected to arrive. Photo: Miriam Alster/Flash90.

A false narrative of mass departures from Israel has gained traction in international media, painting a misleading picture of a nation in retreat.

New data shows Israel’s population reached a historic milestone of 10 million citizens in 2024. While a record 82,700 people emigrated last year, net migration was 26,100 (-0.261 percent) when accounting for the 32,800 new immigrants and the 23,800 Israelis who returned home despite the war, a testament to the nation’s enduring appeal.

In its 2024 estimates of rates of net migration, the CIA World Factbook listed 50 countries ahead of Israel. And yet the media seem relatively oblivious to people fleeing countries like Indonesia, Qatar, Mexico, Peru, Pakistan, Turkey, Morocco, and many other countries at a vastly higher clip.

Investigating how the “flight-from-Israel” story gets told today serves as a case study in confirmation bias and of the power of preconceived narratives against Israel.

In the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, atrocities and South Africa’s genocide allegations at the International Court of Justice, media outlets predicted gloom for Israel’s population.

The Guardian spoke, in December 2023, of a “mass exodus.” Less than two months after Hamas’ depredations into Israel, Reuters highlighted “Israelis seeking refuge abroad.” Just two weeks ago, the Associated Press reported how “information points to a surge of Israelis leaving.” This creates an image of a nation in inexorable decline. Yet the nuanced data tells a markedly different story.

Immigration to Israel (aliyah) actually increased by 25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. Roughly 35,000 Jews have immigrated to Israel since the October 7th massacres. A third of the new immigrants to Israel have been aged 18 to 35 years old. The Jewish Agency’s latest figures show robust immigration from diverse regions: 75,000 from North America, 45,000 from Europe, 35,000 from the former Soviet Union, and 15,000 from Latin America in 2023 alone.

The data reveals what Israeli cognitive psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called confirmation bias; in this case, observers interpret information to confirm their preexisting beliefs about Israel’s inexorable demise. Also on display is the availability heuristic, where dramatic stories of departure receive outsized attention compared to a stream of present or future arrivals.

Another bias in this narrative is the hasty generalization bias, an insidious form of inductive fallacy where isolated instances of emigration are extrapolated to misrepresent future trends.

This fallacy intensified following South Africa’s genocide libel against Israel, as media narratives amplified the unending departure myth despite evidence of increased solidarity and aliyah among South African Jews. Immigration from South Africa to Israel boomed by 20 percent after October 7, 2023.

This media narrative pattern isn’t new. Historical data reveals similar misconceptions during past challenges faced by Israel.

In the 1970s, economic instability was supposed to trigger ballooning departures, yet immigration from the USSR outpaced emigration. During the 1980s, the Lebanon War and intifadas allegedly sparked an exodus, but temporary emigration was offset by returnees and new immigrants. The 2000s saw predictions of a brain drain from Israel amid the tech bubble burst, only for the tech sector to rebound and attract global Jewish talent.

Israel’s latest Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) data puts these narratives in perspective. Israel’s population grew by 1.1 percent (129,600 people) in 2024. Although increased emigration and casualties from the Hamas war lent some credence to a temporary departure narrative, the fundamental trend remains positive, and the future is wondrous. The Jewish population stands at 7.7 million (76.9 percent), with 2.1 million Arabs (21 percent) and 210,000 others (two percent).

This persistent gap between perception and reality may reflect motivated reasoning, where emotional or ideological preferences shape how information is processed. In other words, what Kahneman and Tversky called confirmation bias intensifies in the media.

Reporters, sometimes influenced by an ingrained animus toward Israel’s sustainability, repeatedly fall into the trap of catastrophizing temporary challenges to Israel, while overlooking the nation’s proven resilience.

The phenomenon also demonstrates the bandwagon fallacy, sometimes called the “appeal to common belief,” where the repetition of a narrative across multiple outlets creates the illusion of validity.

Each outlet citing others’ similar reports creates an echo chamber that can drown out contradictory data.

As Israel begins 2025 with its largest population ever, it is worth examining how these cognitive biases shape international discourse. The story of Israel’s population growth in the face of pummeling adversity doesn’t fit neatly into preconceived storylines of fragility and exodus.

Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks’ adage applies to exposing any false narrative that diminishes Israel’s future: “Wrestle with it, refusing to let it go until it blesses you, until you emerge stronger, better or wiser than you were before. To be a Jew is not to accept defeat. That is the meaning of faith.”

Neil Seeman is a Senior Fellow at Massey College in the University of Toronto. His latest book is Accelerated Minds: Unlocking the Fascinating, Inspiring, and Often Destructive Impulses that Drive the Entrepreneurial Brain.

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Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz looks on, amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, in Jerusalem, Nov. 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

JNS.org — If Hamas does not release the 100 hostages it has been holding for 454 days and halt its rocket attacks on the Jewish state, Israel will deal it “blows with a force not seen in Gaza for a long time,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday.

“The IDF will intensify its activities against the terrorist nests in Gaza until the release of the hostages and the elimination of Hamas,” Katz warned during a visit to the southern Israeli city of Netivot.

Hamas terrorists welcomed 2025 by firing two rockets towards the Netivot area. No damages or injuries were reported in the attack.

“I call on Gaza’s residents to rise up against the murderous Hamas group, which also uses you as human shields, and to bring about the release of the hostages, to prevent suffering and end the war,” Katz said.

The defense minister in his remarks highlighted Israel’s “willingness to make far-reaching compromises in accordance with the principles outlined by the US president.”

Israeli ground forces entered Gaza on Oct. 27, 2023, following weeks of airstrikes in response to the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attacks, in which terrorists murdered some 1,200 people, wounded thousands more and took more than 250 men, women and children back to the Gaza Strip as hostages.

Israeli Air Force aircraft conducted more than 1,400 strikes on Hamas terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip during the month of December, the Israel Defense Forces said on Wednesday.

The IAF strikes — which were carried out by fighter jets, helicopter gunships and drones — targeted Hamas terrorist operatives, tunnel systems, weapon depots and attack positions, the military said.

“Air Force aircraft and control rooms are in direct contact with the fighting [ground] forces and support the fighting in the various sectors,” the statement continued, adding that the IAF has managed to kill terrorists “within a few meters” of Israeli soldiers.

Jerusalem’s year-plus-long offensive against Hamas and other Iranian-backed groups has greatly curbed rocket fire from Gaza, although the Palestinian terrorists still intermittently target the Jewish state.

Following Wednesday’s assault on Netivot, the IDF issued a warning to noncombatants in the Bureij camp, located near the IDF’s Netzarim Corridor dividing Gaza, ahead of a retaliatory strike on Hamas.

“This is an early warning. Terror groups are again firing rockets from this area, which has been warned several times in the past. For your safety, immediately move to the humanitarian zone,” the IDF notice read.

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People inspect a damaged area in the aftermath of what Syrian state media reported was an Israeli strike in Masyaf, Hama province, Syria, Sept. 9, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Firas Makdesi

Israel’s military said on Thursday its special forces had raided an underground missile production site in Syria in September that it said was primed to produce hundreds of precision missiles for use against Israel by the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah.

The complex near Masyaf, close to the Mediterranean coast, was “the flagship of Iranian manufacturing efforts in our region,” Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told a briefing with reporters.

“This facility was designed to manufacture hundreds of strategic missiles per year from start to finish, for Hezbollah to use in their aerial attacks on Israel.”

He said the plant, dug into a mountainside, had been under observation by Israel since construction began in 2017 and was on the point of being able to manufacture precision-guided missiles, some with a range of up to 300 km (190 miles).

“This ability was becoming active, so we’re talking about an immediate threat,” he said.

Details of the Sept. 8 raid have been reported in Israeli media but Shoshani said this was the first confirmation by the military, which rarely comments on special forces operations.

At the time, Syrian state media said at least 16 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes in the west of the country.

Shoshani said the nighttime raid was “one of the more complex operations the IDF has done in recent years.” Accompanied by airstrikes, it involved dozens of aircraft and around 100 helicopter-borne troops, he said.

“At the end of the raid, the troops dismantled the facility, including the machines and the manufacturing equipment, themselves,” he said.

The military released footage showing Israeli troops boarding and dismounting from helicopters and moving through what appears to be a concrete-lined tunnel and industrial site, where they examine documents.

Other footage showed senior commanders at a control center, apparently as the operation proceeds.

Israeli officials have accused the former Syrian government of president Bahar al-Assad of helping the Lebanese-based Hezbollah movement receive arms from Iran and say they are determined to stop the flow of weapons into Lebanon.

As Assad’s government crumbled towards the end of last year, Israel launched a series of strikes against Syrian military infrastructure and weapons manufacturing sites to prevent them falling into the hands of enemies.

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