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Israel’s Chief Mission Is to Protect Its Citizens From a Nuclear Iran
Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters through a screen during a rally commemorating the annual Hezbollah Martyrs’ Day, in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Photo: Reuters/Aziz Taher
“The safety of the People,” exclaimed Roman statesman Cicero, “is the highest law.”
Accordingly, Israel must do whatever possible to protect its populations not only from Sunni Hamas in Gaza, but also from Shiite Hezbollah in the north. More precisely, though Israel is being forced to accelerate its conflict with Hezbollah, its ultimate adversary is Iran. In essence, safeguarding the country from a nuclearizing Iran must be Israel’s “highest law.”
What should be expected? If Israel’s indispensable counter-terrorism efforts bring it into another direct military confrontation with Iran, the result would likely be a protracted war. In any such unpredictable scenario, it is plausible that even a still pre-nuclear Iran could elicit a “limited” Israeli nuclear reprisal. Foreseeable escalation dangers would lie in Iranian use of radiation dispersal weapons or in Iranian conventional rocket attack on Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor. In a conspicuously worst-case scenario, an already-nuclear North Korea would engage Israeli military forces on behalf of Iran. Ironically, in such a scenario, the already-nuclear ally (North Korea) would be acting as willing surrogate for not-yet-nuclear Iran.
There are multiple details. By definition, all pertinent scenarios would be unprecedented or sui generis. This means, at best, that related strategic predictions could be only superficially scientific. In logic and mathematics, true assessments of probability must always derive from the determinable frequency of relevant past events. But because there has never been a nuclear war (Hiroshima and Nagasaki don’t “count”), nothing science-based could be estimated about an Israel-Iran nuclear war.
Even if Iran were to remain pre-nuclear, Israel could sometime calculate that it should cross the nuclear threshold vis-à-vis Iran. This would be the case in those circumstances wherein non-introduction of Israeli nuclear weapons would allow Iran to gain the upper hand in crisis bargaining. In extremis, this means that Israel could decide to “go nuclear” (though presumably at very limited levels) in order to maintain “escalation dominance.”
These are weighty intellectual matters, not matters for “common sense” resolution. They could never be understood or acted upon correctly by politicians or pundits. Like the much larger United States, Israel needs to guard itself capably from decisions of the strategically illiterate and manifestly unqualified.
For Israel, a country smaller than America’s Lake Michigan, nuclear weapons and strategy remain essential to national survival. Israel’s traditional policy of “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” or the “bomb in the basement” goes back to early days of the state. During the 1950s, David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister, recognized the need for a dramatic “equalizer” vis-à-vis larger and more populous regional enemies. Prudently, he sought to secure his tiny country’s problematic survival in a region of continuous and rancorous anarchy.
Now, facing a recalcitrant and soon-to-be nuclear Iran, Israel needs to update and refine its policy of “deliberate nuclear ambiguity.” The key objective of such urgently needed changes would be credible nuclear deterrence, a goal that will require a sudden or incremental shift to “selective nuclear disclosure.” Though counter-intuitive, Iran will need to be convinced, among other things, that Israel’s nuclear arms are not too destructive for actual operational use.
There will be perplexing nuances. For Israel to fashion reason-based nuclear policies, Iran’s leaders should generally be considered rational. But it is conceivable that Iran would sometime act irrationally, perhaps in alliance with other more-or-less rational states like North Korea or with kindred terror groups such as Hezbollah.
Unless Jerusalem were to consider Pakistan an authentic enemy, Israel has no present-day nuclear enemies. Still, as an unstable Islamic state, Pakistan is potentially subject to coup d’état by assorted Jihadist elements and is closely aligned with Saudi Arabia. At some point, the Sunni Saudi kingdom could decide to “go nuclear” itself, not because of Israel per se, but because Shiite Iran’s steadily accelerating nuclear progress.
For Israel’s nuclear deterrence to work longer-term, Iran will need to be told more rather than less about Israel’s nuclear targeting doctrine and the invulnerability of Israel’s nuclear forces. In concert with such changes, Jerusalem will need to clarify parts of its still opaque “Samson Option.” The point of such clarification would not be to “die with the Philistines” (per the biblical Book of Judges), but to enhance certain “high destruction” options of its nuclear deterrence posture.
Though the only gainful and law-based rationale of Israel’s nuclear weapons could be deterrence at different levels of military destructiveness, there will remain circumstances under which Israeli nuclear deterrence might fail. How might such intolerable circumstances arise? In partial reply, the following four scenarios should be identified and evaluated. All four could result as “by-product” of Israel’s expanding war with Hezbollah, Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon.
For the moment, the only reasonable focus in Jerusalem should be on Iranian capabilities and intentions. But this indispensable focus ought to include variously coinciding intersections with Hezbollah objectives and operations. In the final analysis, the Hezbollah threat to Israel is not “just” a terror threat or strategic threat, but a process that could accelerate conditions leading to eventual nuclear war with Iran.
The author was educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971). Born in Zürich at the end of World War II, he is the author of many books, monographs, and articles dealing with Israeli nuclear strategy. Emeritus Professor of International Law at Purdue, he has lectured on this topic for over fifty years at leading universities and academic centers for strategic studies. Dr. Beres’ twelfth book, Israel’s Nuclear Strategy: Surviving amid Chaos, was published by Rowman and Littlefield, in 2016 (2nd ed., 2018). In December 2016, Professor Beres authored a monograph at Tel-Aviv University (with special postscript by retired USA General Barry McCaffrey), Israel’s Nuclear Strategy and American National Security.
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United Nations ‘Condemns’ Israel for Responding to Houthi Attacks, Decries ‘Escalation’ of Violence
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres speaks to members of the Security Council during a meeting to address the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, at UN headquarters in New York City, New York, US, April 18, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
In its latest salvo against the Jewish state, the United Nations (UN) condemned Israel for executing retaliatory strikes against the Houthi terror group in Yemen.
“The Secretary-General condemns escalation between Yemen and Israel,” Stéphanie Tremblay, a UN spokesperson, said in Thursday statements on behalf of UN Secretary General António Guterres.
“The Secretary-General is gravely concerned about intensified escalation in Yemen and Israel. Israeli airstrikes today on Sana’a International Airport, the Red Sea ports and power stations in Yemen are especially alarming. The airstrikes reportedly resulted in numerous casualties including at least three killed and dozens more injured” Tremblay added.
On Thursday, Israel launched a barrage of missile attacks on Houthi bases in Yemen, provoking international outrage. Israel targeted a major airport in Sanaa and ports in Hodeida, Al-Salif and Ras Qantib, and power stations, locations the Jewish state claims were used by the terror group to sneak in both Iranian weapons and high-ranking Iranian officials.
On Friday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for an airstrike aimed at Ben Gurion airport, claiming that the attacks were carried out in retaliation against Israel’s targeting of Sana’a International airport.
The Israeli strikes followed days of Houthi missile and drone launches towards the Jewish state’s airspace. The Houthis have repeatedly attacked the Jewish state in the year following the Oct. 7 slaughters in Israel. Officials associated with terrorist organization claims that it will continue to attack Israel until the so-called “genocide” in Gaza ceases.
In reference to the strikes, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “the Houthis, too, will learn what Hamas and Hezbollah and Assad’s regime and others learned.”
Israeli officials have long accused the UN of having a bias against the Jewish state. Last year, the UN General Assembly condemned Israel twice as often as it did all other countries. Meanwhile, of all the country-specific resolutions passed by the UNHRC, nearly half have condemned Israel, a seemingly disproportionate focus on the lone democracy in the Middle East.
Weeks following the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel, the UN adopted a resolution calling for a “ceasefire” between Israel and the terrorist group. The UN failed to pass a measure condemning the Hamas atrocities of Oct. 7.
In June, the UN put Israel on its so-called “list of shame” of countries that kill children in armed conflict. Israel is considered to be the only democracy on the list.
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Israeli Jets Attack Syria-Lebanon Border Crossings to Stop Arms Amuggling
Smoke billows after an Israeli Air Force air strike in southern Lebanon village, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, Oct. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jim Urquhar
Israeli jets struck seven crossing points along the Syria-Lebanon border on Friday, aiming to cut the flow of weapons to the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in southern Lebanon.
Israeli troops also seized a truck mounted with a 40-barrel rocket launcher in southern Lebanon, part of a haul from various areas that included explosives, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and AK-47 automatic rifles, the military said.
The commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Tomer Bar, said Hezbollah was trying to smuggle weapons into Lebanon to test Israel’s ability to stop them.
“This must not be tolerated,” he said in a statement.
Under the terms of a Nov. 27 ceasefire agreement, Israel is supposed to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon in phases while unauthorised Hezbollah military facilities south of the Litani River are to be dismantled.
However, each side has accused the other of violating the agreement, intended to end more than a year of fighting that began with Hezbollah missile strikes on Israel in the aftermath of the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023, from Gaza.
On Thursday, the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon called for Israeli forces to withdraw, citing what it said were repeated violations of the deal.
Israel, which destroyed large parts of Hezbollah’s missile stocks during weeks of operations in southern Lebanon, has said it will not permit weapons to be smuggled to Hezbollah through Syria.
Israel has also conducted attacks against the Iranian-backed Houthi movement in Yemen in recent days and pledged to continue its campaign against Iranian-backed militant groups across the region.
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Mila Kunis Says Husband Ashton Kutcher And Their Children Helped Her Embrace Judaism: ‘I Fell in Love With My Religion’
Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis at the 9th Annual Breakthrough Prize Ceremony at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles, California, on April 16, 2023. Photo: Cover Media via Reuters Connect
Actress Mila Kunis began embracing and feeling proud of her Jewish heritage when she met her husband, actor Ashton Kutcher, and even more so after having children, she told Israeli activist and author Noa Tishby this week.
“For me, it happened when I met my husband,” the “Goodrich” star, 41, said of her former “That ’70s Show” costar, 46, who she has been married to since 2015.
Although Kutcher is not Jewish, he was a follower of Kabbalah and was frequently photographed visiting the Kabbalah Centre in Los Angeles when he was married to actress Demi Moore from 2005-2013. Their wedding was also reportedly officiated by a Kabbalah Centre teacher. It remains unclear if he continues to follow Kabbalah. Nevertheless, Kunis joked that Kutcher is Jewish “by choice,” not by lineage, and that his interest in Judaism sparked Kunis to reconnect with her Jewish roots.
“I fell in love with my religion because he explained it to me,” said Kunis, who voices Meg Griffin on the Fox animated series “Family Guy.”
Kunis made the comments while joining Tishby to light candles on Thursday for the second night of Hanukkah. The two joined forces as part of Tishby’s “#BringOnTheLight campaign,” which is an eight-part video series on YouTube dedicated to spreading the message of Jewish resilience, pride and unity throughout the Jewish holiday.
Kunis and Kutcher together have two children — daughter Wyatt, 10, and son Dimitri, 8. The actress was born in Chernivtsi, Ukraine, and moved to the United States at the age of eight. She told Tishby that she did not adhere to any Jewish traditions while growing up. “I always knew I was Jewish but I was told to never talk about,” she said. “I think because I was in a country that didn’t allow for religion.” The “Bad Moms” star added that her children also helped her tap into the religious side of Judaism.
“I was raised culturally Jewish. So for me, it’s a culture,” she said. “And as I had kids, and my kids very much identity with the religion aspect of it, I was like, ‘Oh, I guess we’re doing Shabbat and the candles. And there are so many beautiful traditions.”
“I never lit Hanukkah candles until I had kids,” she further noted.
When Kunis lit the menorah with Tishby for the second night of Hanukkah, they called Kutcher for some help. Both women were unsure if they needed to light the candles from left to right or from right to left, and asked Kutcher for guidance.
Kunis also talked about being raised with a lot of Jewish guilt and superstition. Listing another things that are culturally Jewish about her, she shared, “I have a fear of not having enough food and my fear of somebody being hungry. The worst thing my kids can say to me is, ‘I’m hungry.’”
“Food fixes everything. You’re tired, eat some food. You’re cranky, eat some food,” she joked. “A health person would say, ‘This is unhealthy and you’re doing something wrong.’ And I understand. I’m working on it. But it’s just something that is embedded in me.”
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