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Israel’s Chief Mission Is to Protect Its Citizens From a Nuclear Iran
Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters through a screen during a rally commemorating the annual Hezbollah Martyrs’ Day, in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Photo: Reuters/Aziz Taher
“The safety of the People,” exclaimed Roman statesman Cicero, “is the highest law.”
Accordingly, Israel must do whatever possible to protect its populations not only from Sunni Hamas in Gaza, but also from Shiite Hezbollah in the north. More precisely, though Israel is being forced to accelerate its conflict with Hezbollah, its ultimate adversary is Iran. In essence, safeguarding the country from a nuclearizing Iran must be Israel’s “highest law.”
What should be expected? If Israel’s indispensable counter-terrorism efforts bring it into another direct military confrontation with Iran, the result would likely be a protracted war. In any such unpredictable scenario, it is plausible that even a still pre-nuclear Iran could elicit a “limited” Israeli nuclear reprisal. Foreseeable escalation dangers would lie in Iranian use of radiation dispersal weapons or in Iranian conventional rocket attack on Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor. In a conspicuously worst-case scenario, an already-nuclear North Korea would engage Israeli military forces on behalf of Iran. Ironically, in such a scenario, the already-nuclear ally (North Korea) would be acting as willing surrogate for not-yet-nuclear Iran.
There are multiple details. By definition, all pertinent scenarios would be unprecedented or sui generis. This means, at best, that related strategic predictions could be only superficially scientific. In logic and mathematics, true assessments of probability must always derive from the determinable frequency of relevant past events. But because there has never been a nuclear war (Hiroshima and Nagasaki don’t “count”), nothing science-based could be estimated about an Israel-Iran nuclear war.
Even if Iran were to remain pre-nuclear, Israel could sometime calculate that it should cross the nuclear threshold vis-à-vis Iran. This would be the case in those circumstances wherein non-introduction of Israeli nuclear weapons would allow Iran to gain the upper hand in crisis bargaining. In extremis, this means that Israel could decide to “go nuclear” (though presumably at very limited levels) in order to maintain “escalation dominance.”
These are weighty intellectual matters, not matters for “common sense” resolution. They could never be understood or acted upon correctly by politicians or pundits. Like the much larger United States, Israel needs to guard itself capably from decisions of the strategically illiterate and manifestly unqualified.
For Israel, a country smaller than America’s Lake Michigan, nuclear weapons and strategy remain essential to national survival. Israel’s traditional policy of “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” or the “bomb in the basement” goes back to early days of the state. During the 1950s, David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister, recognized the need for a dramatic “equalizer” vis-à-vis larger and more populous regional enemies. Prudently, he sought to secure his tiny country’s problematic survival in a region of continuous and rancorous anarchy.
Now, facing a recalcitrant and soon-to-be nuclear Iran, Israel needs to update and refine its policy of “deliberate nuclear ambiguity.” The key objective of such urgently needed changes would be credible nuclear deterrence, a goal that will require a sudden or incremental shift to “selective nuclear disclosure.” Though counter-intuitive, Iran will need to be convinced, among other things, that Israel’s nuclear arms are not too destructive for actual operational use.
There will be perplexing nuances. For Israel to fashion reason-based nuclear policies, Iran’s leaders should generally be considered rational. But it is conceivable that Iran would sometime act irrationally, perhaps in alliance with other more-or-less rational states like North Korea or with kindred terror groups such as Hezbollah.
Unless Jerusalem were to consider Pakistan an authentic enemy, Israel has no present-day nuclear enemies. Still, as an unstable Islamic state, Pakistan is potentially subject to coup d’état by assorted Jihadist elements and is closely aligned with Saudi Arabia. At some point, the Sunni Saudi kingdom could decide to “go nuclear” itself, not because of Israel per se, but because Shiite Iran’s steadily accelerating nuclear progress.
For Israel’s nuclear deterrence to work longer-term, Iran will need to be told more rather than less about Israel’s nuclear targeting doctrine and the invulnerability of Israel’s nuclear forces. In concert with such changes, Jerusalem will need to clarify parts of its still opaque “Samson Option.” The point of such clarification would not be to “die with the Philistines” (per the biblical Book of Judges), but to enhance certain “high destruction” options of its nuclear deterrence posture.
Though the only gainful and law-based rationale of Israel’s nuclear weapons could be deterrence at different levels of military destructiveness, there will remain circumstances under which Israeli nuclear deterrence might fail. How might such intolerable circumstances arise? In partial reply, the following four scenarios should be identified and evaluated. All four could result as “by-product” of Israel’s expanding war with Hezbollah, Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon.
For the moment, the only reasonable focus in Jerusalem should be on Iranian capabilities and intentions. But this indispensable focus ought to include variously coinciding intersections with Hezbollah objectives and operations. In the final analysis, the Hezbollah threat to Israel is not “just” a terror threat or strategic threat, but a process that could accelerate conditions leading to eventual nuclear war with Iran.
The author was educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971). Born in Zürich at the end of World War II, he is the author of many books, monographs, and articles dealing with Israeli nuclear strategy. Emeritus Professor of International Law at Purdue, he has lectured on this topic for over fifty years at leading universities and academic centers for strategic studies. Dr. Beres’ twelfth book, Israel’s Nuclear Strategy: Surviving amid Chaos, was published by Rowman and Littlefield, in 2016 (2nd ed., 2018). In December 2016, Professor Beres authored a monograph at Tel-Aviv University (with special postscript by retired USA General Barry McCaffrey), Israel’s Nuclear Strategy and American National Security.
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Trump Picks JD Vance for Running Mate, Formally Wins Republican Presidential Nomination
US Senate Republican candidate JD Vance speaks as former US President Donald Trump smiles at a rally to support Republican candidates ahead of midterm elections, in Dayton, Ohio, US Nov. 7, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Donald Trump chose Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance to be his vice presidential running mate, as the Republican Party officially nominated the former president to run again for the White House on Monday at the start of the party’s national convention in Milwaukee.
“As Vice President, JD will continue to fight for our Constitution, stand with our Troops, and will do everything he can to help me MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
The four-day convention opened in downtown Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum two days after Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, and hours after he secured a major legal victory when a federal judge dismissed one of Trump‘s criminal prosecutions.
Trump is due to formally accept the party’s nomination in a prime-time speech on Thursday and will challenge Democratic President Joe Biden in the Nov. 5 election.
Vance, 39, was a fierce Trump critic in 2016 but has since become one of the former president’s staunchest defenders, embracing his false claims that the 2020 election was marred by widespread fraud.
Soon after Trump‘s announcement, Vance emerged on the convention floor with his wife Usha, shaking hands with and hugging delegates who swarmed the couple. He smiled widely as he was formally nominated to be vice president and is scheduled to address the convention on Wednesday.
Vance is deeply popular with Trump‘s core supporters, but it remains to be seen whether he can broaden the ticket’s appeal. He shares Trump‘s aggressive approach to politics, and his conservative statements on issues such as abortion could turn off moderate voters.
Biden told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland that Vance is “a clone of Trump on the issues.”
Opinion polls show a close race between Trump, 78, and Biden, 81, though Trump leads in several swing states that are likely to decide the election. Trump has not committed to accepting the results of the election if he loses.
The head of the main fundraising super PAC supporting Trump‘s campaign, Taylor Budowich, said on X that MAGA Inc had raised more than $50 million on Monday.
After the assassination attempt, Trump said he was revising his acceptance speech to emphasize national unity, rather than highlight his differences with Biden.
“This is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together. The speech will be a lot different, a lot different than it would’ve been two days ago,” Trump told the Washington Examiner.
US District Judge Aileen Cannon’s decision on Monday to throw out federal charges against Trump for retaining classified documents after leaving the White House was the latest in a string of legal wins for the former president, who is due to be sentenced in New York in September for trying to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels in the weeks before his 2016 election victory.
His other two indictments on federal charges in Washington and state charges in Georgia — both related to his efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat — are mired in delays and could be significantly limited after the US Supreme Court ruled in July that he had immunity for many of his official acts as president.
“This dismissal of the Lawless Indictment in Florida should be just the first step, followed quickly by the dismissal of ALL the Witch Hunts,” Trump said on Truth Social on Monday, also referencing the prosecutions of hundreds of his supporters who stormed the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
NO PLACE FOR VIOLENCE
The shooting attempt on Trump‘s life immediately altered the dynamics of the presidential campaign, which had been focused on whether Biden should drop out due to concerns about his age and acuity following a halting June 27 debate performance.
Nearly two dozen of Biden’s fellow Democrats in Congress have called on him to end his reelection bid and allow the party to pick another standard bearer.
The focus this week will be squarely on Trump.
Having consolidated party control, Trump could seize on the opportunity to deliver a unifying message or paint a dark portrait of a nation under siege by a corrupt leftist elite, as he has done at times on the campaign trail.
Trump has frequently turned to violent rhetoric in campaign speeches, labeling his perceived enemies as “vermin” and “fascists.”
Biden has cast Trump as a threat to US democracy, comments that some Republicans say helped foster an atmosphere that prompted the shooting even though authorities have yet to determine the motive for the assassination attempt. The gunman himself was shot dead.
Following Saturday’s shooting, Biden sought to lower the temperature after months of heated political rhetoric.
“There is no place in America for this kind of violence,” Biden said in an address from the White House on Sunday.
In an excerpt of an interview with NBC News set to air later on Monday, Biden said it was a “mistake” to tell donors last week it was “time to put Trump in a bull’s eye” but noted that Trump has often used incendiary words.
Biden ordered an independent review of how the gunman, who killed a spectator, could have come so close to killing Trump. Congressional investigators also sought to question the head of the US Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting the former president.
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Anti-Israel Protesters Target Queens Synagogue Over Israel Real-Estate Sale Despite Venue Change
Anti-Israel protesters target a synagogue in Queens, New York on July 14, 2024. Photo: Screenshot
Anti-Israel protesters descended on Congregation Charm Circle in Queens, New York on Sunday to protest a sale of Israeli real estate, despite the synagogue changing the location of the sale.
The protest, reminiscent of last month’s widely condemned violent demonstration outside of a synagogue in Los Angeles, was the latest example of demonstrators purportedly opposing Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza targeting Jewish sites in Western countries.
Last week, the Palestinian Assembly for Liberation and Al-Awda, The Palestine Right to Return Coalition announced that they were planning to protest a sale of Israeli real estate in Kew Garden Hills, a densely Jewish neighborhood of Queens. They did not name a specific synagogue to protest outside of, but there are over a dozen, mainly Orthodox, synagogues in the immediate vicinity of the location they provided.
Instagram post by the Palestinian Assembly for Liberation and Al-Awda, The Palestine Right to Return Coalition for an anti-Israel protest. Photo: Screenshot
“Every time these illegal sales take place, we will give them no peace and a protest will follow each time, until liberation and return,” read the caption of the social media post announcing the demonstration. “Across the US and Canada realtors continue to sell stolen PALESTINIAN [sic] property on settlements that are illegal under International law.”
The post then included an inverted red triangle followed by the message: “As the genocide on Palestinians continues, we call for a complete end to the settler-colonial project of Israel and its goal of expansion.”
The inverted red triangle has become a common symbol at pro-Hamas rallies and anti-Israel protests that ravaged Western university campuses in recent months. Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that rules Gaza, has used inverted red triangles in its propaganda videos to indicate Israeli targets about to be attacked. According to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), “the red triangle is now used to represent Hamas itself and glorify its use of violence.”
In the days leading up to the event, Queens Shmira – a Jewish neighborhood safety group – announced that the real-estate sale had been moved to a different venue. According to a statement from Queens Shmira, the venue “has since changed to accommodate a larger audience and will NOT be taking place at Congregation Charm Circle.”
“The protesters’ intention is to intimidate and we will not be intimidated,” the statement added.
Although the event had been moved to a different location, on Sunday anti-Israel protesters nonetheless descended on Congregation Charm Circle, where they were videoed calling for an intifada against Jews and waving Hezbollah flags. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terrorist organization based in Lebanon, has been launching rockets, drones, and missiles at northern Israel daily as Israeli forces simultaneously battle the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas to the south in Gaza.
In response, counter-protesters waved Israeli flags and called for the release of the roughly 120 hostages still being held by terrorists in Gaza since Oct. 7.
The protest spilled over to a nearby basketball court, where pro-Palestinian demonstrators could be seen shoving the counter-protesters. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) attempted to de-escalate the situation, but there were no reports of arrests being made.
Local politicians took to X/Twitter to express outrage over the anti-Israel protests targeting a synagogue.
“The event changed venues but the protesters didn’t care, harassing Jews for the crime of going to pray,” New York State Assemblymember Sam Berger, who represents Kew Garden Hills, wrote on X/Twitter.
US Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY), who also represents Kew Garden Hills, condemned the demonstration on social media.
“The events that took place outside of Congregation Charm Circle in Kew Gardens Hills are deeply concerning,” she posted. “Harassing people outside of their house of worship is unacceptable. While everyone in the US has the right to protest, there is no place for hate, violence, & antisemitism.”
The protest at Congregation Charm Circle come only four weeks after the violent anti-Israel demonstration outside of Adas Torah synagogue in the heavily-Jewish Pico-Robertson area of Los Angeles.
Anti-Israel demonstrators outside the Adas Torah synagogue in the heavily-Jewish Pico-Robertson area of Los Angeles, June 23, 2024. Photo: Screenshot
Demonstrators swarmed the synagogue to protest the sale of Israeli real estate taking place inside the building, blocking people from entering and leaving. The protests quickly descended into violence as anti-Israel protesters were caught on video shoving, punching, and screaming at those attempting to defend the synagogue.
The skirmishes spilled out into the greater community as anti-Israel protesters targeted and in some cases vandalized Jewish-owned businesses.
The violence received widespread condemnation.
“I’m appalled by the scenes outside of Adas Torah synagogue in Los Angeles. Intimidating Jewish congregants is dangerous, unconscionable, antisemitic, and un-American,” US President Joe Biden said in a statement on the chaos. “Americans have a right to peaceful protest. But blocking access to a house of worship — and engaging in violence — is never acceptable.”
Since Hamas’ brutal terrorist attacks in Israel on Oct. 7, antisemitism has skyrocketed globally to record levels amid the ensuing war in Gaza. The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) released a report in April showing antisemitic incidents in the US rose 140 percent last year, reaching a record high. Most of the outrages occurred after Hamas’ atrocities across southern Israel last October.
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Anti-Israel ‘Squad’ at Risk of Another Big Election Loss as Poll Finds Cori Bush Trailing Opponent by 23 Points
US Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) raises her fist as US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) addresses a pro-Hamas demonstration in Washington, DC. Photo: Reuters/Allison Bailey
US Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO), one of the fiercest critics of Israel in Congress, is trailing her Democratic primary opponent by a staggering 23 points, according to a new poll.
The findings come as Bush faces an uphill battle to avoid becoming the second member of the so-called “Squad” of far-left US lawmakers outspoken against Israel to lose to a more moderate Democrat this election cycle.
St. Louis prosecutor Wesley Bell leads Bush by a margin of 56 percent to 33 percent in the Aug. 6 primary for Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, according to a survey conducted by McLaughlin & Associates for the CCA Action Fund and first reported by the New York Post.
Among Democrats, Bush holds a favorability rating of 50 percent and an unfavorability rating of 47 percent, the poll found. Meanwhile, Bell touts a favorability rating of 70 percent and an unfavorability rating of just 18 percent.
The numbers suggest that Bush’s support within her district has crumbled at a rapid rate. A poll conducted by The Mellman Group from June 18-22 showed a much tighter race, with 43 percent of respondents indicating support for Bell and 42 percent indicating support for Bush. In January, Bush enjoyed a commanding lead of 45 percent to 29 percent lead among Democratic primary voters.
Bush has been vocally critical of Israel in the months following the Hamas terror group’s Oct. 7 slaughter of more than 1,200 people throughout southern Israel. The congresswoman called for an “immediate ceasefire” only nine days following the atrocities of Oct. 7, dismissing Israel’s military response to terrorism as “retaliatory violence.”
In late October, Bush penned an op-ed for the left-wing publication Jacobin accusing Israel of exacting “collective punishment of Palestinians in Gaza” and categorized the Jewish state’s defensive military operations as a “war crime.” In December, Bush accused Israel of deliberately “targeting civilians” and committing a so-called “genocide” in Gaza. Bush has also repeatedly denigrated Israel as an “apartheid state.”
In contrast, Bell has declared his support for Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorism.
“We want to see a peaceful resolution. I want to be part of the coalition that brings a peaceful resolution to that region,” Bell said, according to St. Louis Public Radio. “But it is a tough situation. But in the meantime, we do have to stand by our allies.”
The poll came on the heels of the resounding Democratic primary defeat of US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) last month to George Latimer, a moderate, pro-Israel candidate. Bowman repeatedly lambasted Israel and its war effort against Hamas in Gaza throughout his campaign, earning widespread criticism among Jewish and centrist voters in the primary.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the foremost pro-Israel lobbying group in the US, has announced that it will throw its weight behind Bell, further compounding problems for the progressive firebrand’s struggling campaign. AIPAC, which played an integral role in helping secure Bowman’s defeat by spending a record-shattering $14.5 million in the New York Democratic primary, has called on its supporters to help oust Bush.
“On Tuesday night, the pro-Israel community helped ensure anti-Israel Rep. Jamaal Bowman won’t be returning to Congress next year,” AIPAC texted its supporters following Bowman’s June defeat. “With your support, we can also help defeat Rep. Cori Bush, another member of the anti-Israel Squad.”
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