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Israel’s Defense Establishment Prepares for Multiple Ramadan Scenarios
Israeli police officers walk during clashes with Palestinian protesters, as the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan continues, in Jerusalem, April 24, 2021. REUTERS/Ammar Awad
JNS.org – The Israeli defense establishment and Israel Police are preparing for a range of security scenarios during the traditionally tense Muslim Ramadan month, which begins on the evening of March 10, give or take a day, as the war against Hamas in Gaza rages on.
Thus far, Hamas has failed to ignite Judea and Samaria with violence, and it views Ramadan as a new opportunity to do that—both in eastern Jerusalem and in Judea and Samaria. It will likely try to stress religious fundamentalist themes to call on Palestinian masses to take part in violent disorders, and rally under the banner of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” (the name Hamas gave its Oct. 7 attack).
Hamas hopes to get hundreds of thousands of Palestinians on the streets to take part in rioting.
The Israel Defense Forces is well aware of this intention and is preparing accordingly, with stepped-up numbers of battalions operating in Judea and Samaria.
In Judea and Samaria, the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), the IDF and Border Police have been busy conducting large numbers of security raids to disrupt terror cells before they mature into deadly attacks.
For example, on Tuesday, security forces apprehended a high-ranking terrorist in Balata near Nablus, following intelligence that he was planning an imminent attack with fellow suspects, the IDF said.
On the same day, a terrorist stabbed an Israeli at the Yitzhar Junction, before being shot dead by soldiers on the scene.
The IDF Central Command, which has jurisdiction over Judea and Samaria, has been busy with a severe wave of terror attacks that long preceded the Oct. 7 mass murder attack from Gaza and the war it started.
The wave of terrorism stretches back to March 2022 and includes a spate of attacks within Judea and Samaria and in the larger State of Israel.
A defense source told JNS in recent days that security forces in Judea and Samaria are in the midst of an intense effort to combat terrorism, including raids and arrests.
The long-lasting wave of terror, the source said, is being fueled by the weakening of the Palestinian Authority, with some areas in Judea and Samaria being no-go zones for its security forces, such as Jenin and the Balata camp.
The defense source also pointed to a new, young Palestinian generation, who feel alienated from “everything,” he said—both Israel and the P.A.
According to the source, this is a generation that did not experience 2002’s “Operation Defensive Shield,” carried out by the IDF in Judea and Samaria in response to a wave of Palestinian suicide bombings that claimed hundreds of lives. It is a generation that has not seen tanks in the streets of Palestinian cities in Judea and Samaria or large-scale destruction of homes.
Meanwhile, a surge of weapons has flooded Judea and Samaria, entering mostly from the Jordanian border, but also some stolen from IDF bases, and some produced in local Palestinian workshops.
On top of this combustible mix, terrorist organizations remain highly motivated to conduct attacks. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are attempting to orchestrate terrorism from abroad, though this effort has been significantly hampered by the IDF’s operations in Gaza, the source stated.
Iran is investing money to get weapons into the hands of terrorists as well and tries to help direct and carry out attacks, alongside Hamas and Islamic Jihad. According to the defense source, in the past six months, weapons that originated from the radical Shi’ite axis have been seized in Judea and Samaria.
If this were not enough, the source described large-scale incitement to violence underway among the Palestinian public, fueled further by scenes from Gaza, and tensions that date back to before the current war. These influences can produce “lone wolf” terrorists who attack with knives or other weapons, while the threat of organized cells exists as well.
The IDF describes organized cells as part of “terrorist infrastructure” and is engaged in nightly raids to thwart it, whether in Hebron, Bethlehem or anywhere else in Judea and Samaria. The cells usually receive instructions, weapons and money from outside of Judea and Samaria.
Since October 2023, the IDF and Shin Bet have thwarted around 250 terror cells in Judea and Samaria.
A third kind of threat also exists—armed groups of localized terrorists, who receive assistance from established terror factions, and from Iran, but who operate on their own. These usually spring up where the P.A. is especially weak, the source said, turning camps into terrorist hornet’s nests.
They build observation command rooms and plant explosives under roads, which the IDF routinely neutralizes during security raids. These areas are filled to the brim with weapons and explosives. In such places, a hierarchy often emerges, with a commander taking charge and building greater capabilities. Such groups are responsible for many attacks, the source said.
The Lions’ Den group in Nablus is a well-known example of this kind of threat. In Jenin, the group there calls itself The Camp’s Sons, or the Jenin Brigade.
In effect, the war in Gaza has significantly enabled the IDF to step up its security raids in Judea and Samaria, since the Central Command no longer has to alert the Southern Command, which is responsible for Gaza, about potential terrorist casualties in raids—casualties that, before the war, could have sparked a subsequent rocket escalation from Gaza.
This means that the IDF in Judea and Samaria conducts more raids, more robustly, particularly in the camps against organized armed groups.
Since the start of the war, the IDF has rounded up 3,400 security detainees in Judea and Samaria, with some 1,500 of them affiliated with Hamas. That’s more than the army typically arrests in an entire year.
Legal changes also enable the IDF to more easily detain online inciters of jihadist violence against Israelis, backed by a specialized intelligence unit that tracks down such activities. The IDF is seeking to remove all of the “inciting elements” it can detect before Ramadan.
At the same time, the source said, the goal is to fight terrorism as precisely as possible, without harming uninvolved Palestinians.
The Israeli defense establishment holds that granting uninvolved Palestinians a degree of freedom of worship on the Temple Mount, though less than in previous years, will help deny Hamas the religious war it is trying to ignite.
It also believes that some Palestinian workers, fewer than before the war, should be allowed back into Israel to work to help relieve economic pressure and deny Hamas recruitment opportunities.
According to the source, while there are many IDF checkpoints in Judea and Samaria, at the end of the day it is the offensive security raids that are most effective in stopping terrorism, and the finite number of soldiers means that forces must be reserved for those raids—limiting the number of checkpoints that can be set up.
The Shin Bet announced on Monday that it thwarted a terrorist cell from the Hebron area that produced about 100 explosives and planned to carry out attacks inspired by the Islamic State organization. The announcement is a reminder that ISIS is also a threat in the area.
In recent days, the IDF Central Command’s training program for commanders was held at the Lachish training base. The program is intended for both active duty and reserve commanders.
“The IDF and the Shin Bet’s intensive counterterrorism efforts in Judea and Samaria prevent an escalation in the security situation and allow us to focus on fighting in Gaza and Lebanon and to achieve important results,” IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzl Halevi said at the training program on March 1.
“You have great responsibility in Judea and Samaria to achieve the goals of the war and to be prepared for each mission. This is even more important before Ramadan. We could not have accomplished these achievements without the outstanding reservists who are here.”
Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fuchs, head of the Central Command, added, “Readiness for an escalation is fundamental. There may be an incident, whether real or not, that could lead hundreds of thousands to take to the streets, and this needs to be anticipated and prepared for in every respect.”
Israel Police prepares for a range of scenarios
The Israel Police, meanwhile, has been busy for several weeks making its own preparations leading up to Ramadan as it coordinates with the IDF and the Shin Bet.
The police have been planning for a large variety of scenarios. The issue of whether or not a ceasefire will take hold in Gaza will likely influence events on the ground as well as the situation on the northern front.
The police will have to deal with large numbers of Muslim worshippers arriving at the Temple Mount, Arab Israelis and Palestinians, all at the same time.
Police are also seeing heightened levels of online incitement relating to events in Gaza on social media platforms such as TikTok, Instagram and Telegram. This incitement includes bots from countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan, and to a lesser degree, from Gaza, due to internet disruptions in the Strip.
Preparing for various scenarios has been the police’s top priority in the period leading up to Ramadan, as well as for the Border Police. The Border Police has deployed backup reserve battalions since the start of the war, and many of those battalions remain in active service.
A portion of those battalions will reinforce the Jerusalem area. Jerusalem’s Old City, which is a tightly packed area of around a square kilometer, where hundreds of thousands of worshippers are packed in during an average Ramadan period, creates many potential scenarios for police to think about.
The post Israel’s Defense Establishment Prepares for Multiple Ramadan Scenarios first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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In Reversal, Trump Says Russia Attacked Ukraine
US President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin shake hands as they meet in Helsinki, Finland, July 16, 2018. Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
President Donald Trump reversed course on Friday and said Russia did in fact invade Ukraine, and that Kyiv would soon sign a minerals agreement with the United States as part of efforts to end the Ukraine war.
Trump had said on Tuesday that Ukraine “should have never started” the war three years ago, prompting a wave of criticism both domestically and internationally. Pressed on the subject in an interview with Fox News Radio on Friday, he acknowledged Russia had invaded Ukraine on the order of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Russia attacked, but they shouldn’t have let him attack,” Trump said, adding that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and then-US President Joe Biden should have taken steps to avert the invasion.
Later, Trump predicted a minerals agreement would be reached soon.
“We’re signing an agreement, hopefully in the next fairly short period of time,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about a possible deal for Ukraine’s minerals.
Zelensky said separately on Friday that Ukrainian and US teams were working on a draft agreement. “I am hoping for … a fair result,” he said in a video address after sharp exchanges this week between the two leaders.
Trump denounced Zelensky as a “dictator” on Wednesday and warned he had to move quickly to secure peace with Russia, which invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, or risk losing his country.
The change in tone from the United States, Ukraine’s most important backer, has alarmed European officials and stoked fears that Kyiv could be forced into a peace deal that favors Putin.
Zelensky had said Trump was trapped in a “disinformation bubble,” but later toned down his statements and said he was hoping for American pragmatism.
Zelensky on Wednesday rejected US demands for $500 billion in mineral wealth from Ukraine to repay Washington for wartime aid, saying the United States had supplied nowhere near that sum so far and offered no specific security guarantees in the agreement.
Ukraine has valuable deposits of strategic minerals that the US wants. These include uranium, lithium, cobalt, rare earths and more and are used in applications such as batteries, technology and aerospace.
‘THEY DON’T HAVE ANY CARDS’
Speaking at a White House event earlier on Friday, Trump was critical of Zelensky while refraining from negative comments about Putin.
“I’ve had very good talks with Putin, and I’ve had not such good talks with Ukraine,” Trump said. “They don’t have any cards, but they’re playing tough.”
Separately, the United States on Friday proposed a United Nations resolution to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The three-paragraph US draft, seen by Reuters, mourns loss of life during the “Russia-Ukraine conflict” and “implores a swift end to the conflict.”
Kyiv and its European allies want their own text to be adopted by the UN General Assembly on Monday calling for de-escalation, an early cessation of hostilities and peaceful resolution to the conflict.
The German government said on Friday that Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Zelensky agreed in a phone call that Ukraine must have a seat at the table in peace talks.
Polish President Andrzej Duda, meanwhile, urged Zelensky to keep up calm and constructive cooperation with Trump.
Duda, whose term in office expires this year, was one of Trump’s preferred international partners during his 2017-2021 presidency and they have described themselves as friends.
Poland’s president is due to meet Trump in Washington on Saturday, Poland’s state news agency PAP reported.
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Syrian Refugee Arrested After Berlin Stabbing as Germany Prepares to Vote
Police officers work at the Berlin Holocaust memorial after a suspected knife attack, February 21, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch
A Syrian refugee arrested over the stabbing of a tourist at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial had been planning “to kill Jews,” prosecutors said on Saturday, the day before an election which is expected to see a surge in support for the anti-migrant AfD.
The 19-year-old suspect appears to have been planning to kill Jews for several weeks – apparently motivated by the Middle Eastern conflict – which is why he chose this location, the prosecutors said in a statement.
Police arrested the suspect, whose hands and trousers were smeared with blood, shortly after the stabbing on Friday evening.
He was found to be carrying a prayer rug, a Quran, a note with verses from the Quran dated the previous day, and the suspected weapon in his backpack, which suggests a religious motivation, the prosecutors’ statement said.
The 30-year-old Spanish tourist underwent emergency surgery after sustaining injuries to his neck and was placed in an induced coma, the statement added, although he was no longer in a life-threatening condition.
Campaigning for Sunday’s election has been marred by a series of high-profile attacks in which the suspects are from migrant backgrounds, shifting the focus away from Germany’s ailing economy and boosting support for the far-right Alternative for Germany. Opinion polls show the AfD is on track to secure second place behind the conservative CDU/CSU bloc.
A January stabbing in which two people were killed, including a toddler, was blamed on an Afghan immigrant, prompting the CDU/CSU bloc to break a taboo on cooperating with the far right to push a motion cracking down on migration through parliament with the AfD’s support.
In December, a Saudi man who had lived in Germany for years, and whose social media posts indicated he sympathized with the AfD, rammed a car into a Christmas market, killing six and injuring hundreds.
The Holocaust memorial, one of the German capital’s most sacred sites, commemorates the six million Jews murdered by Adolf Hitler’s Nazis during World War Two, one of the darkest episodes in human history and a continuing focus of German historical atonement.
Interior Minister Nancy Faeser of the center-left Social Democrats, who have been accused of not doing enough for German security, said the perpetrator must be punished with the full severity of the law and immediately deported from prison.
“We will use all available means to deport violent offenders back to Syria,” she said. “Anyone who commits such acts and so disgustingly abuses the protection offered in Germany has forfeited any right to remain in our country.”
There is, so far, no evidence linking the suspect in Friday’s stabbing to any other persons or organizations, prosecutors said.
The suspect, who arrived in Germany as an unaccompanied minor, had no prior criminal record in Berlin and was previously unknown to both the police and the judicial authorities.
He was, however, known to police in the eastern state of Saxony, where he lived, for minor offenses related to general criminal activity, Bild newspaper cited the Saxon interior ministry as saying. The ministry did not reply to a request for comment.
The post Syrian Refugee Arrested After Berlin Stabbing as Germany Prepares to Vote first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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US Piles Pressure on Iraq to Resume Kurdish Oil Exports
FILE PHOTO: An oil field is seen in Kirkuk, Iraq October 18, 2017. Photo: REUTERS/Alaa Al-Marjani/File Photo
US President Donald Trump’s administration is piling pressure on Iraq to allow Kurdish oil exports to restart or face sanctions alongside Iran, eight sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
An advisor to the Iraqi prime minister denied in a statement there had been a threat of sanctions or pressure on the government during its communications with the US administration.
A speedy resumption of exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region would help to offset a potential fall in Iranian oil exports, which Washington has pledged to cut to zero as part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
The US government has said it wants to isolate Iran from the global economy and eliminate its oil export revenues in order to slow Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon.
Iraq’s oil minister made a surprise announcement on Monday that exports from Kurdistan would resume next week. That would mark the end of a near two-year dispute that has cut flows of more than 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Kurdish oil via Turkey to global markets.
Reuters spoke to eight sources in Baghdad, Washington and Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, who said that mounting pressure from the new US administration was a key driver behind Monday’s announcement.
All of the sources declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Iran views its neighbor and ally Iraq as vital for keeping its economy afloat amidst sanctions. But Baghdad, a partner to both the United States and Iran, is wary of being caught in the crosshairs of Trump’s policy to squeeze Tehran, the sources said.
Trump wants Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to sever economic and military ties with Iran. Last week, Reuters reported that Iraq’s central bank blocked five more private banks from dollar access at the request of the U.S. Treasury.
Iraq’s announcement on export resumption was hurried and lacked detail on how it would address technical issues that need to be resolved before flows can restart, four of the eight sources also.
Iran wields considerable military, political and economic influence in Iraq through its powerful Shi’ite militias and the political parties it backs in Baghdad. But the increased US pressure comes at a time when Iran has been weakened by Israel’s attacks on its regional proxies.
Farhad Alaaldin, a foreign affairs adviser to the Iraqi prime minister, said in a statement there was no U.S. threat to impose sanctions if oil exports were not resumed. He noted Iraq’s parliament had already passed a law establishing a price for the oil and it was down to the companies involved to start pumping it to the pipeline.
“Decisions related to the management of national resources are taken in accordance with Iraqi sovereignty and in a way that serves the country’s economic interests,” he said.
CURB SMUGGLING
With the pipeline taking Kurdish crude to the Turkish port of Ceyhan closed since 2023, the smuggling of Kurdish oil to Iran by truck has flourished. The US is urging Baghdad to curb this flow, six of the eight sources said.
Reuters reported in July that an estimated 200,000 barrels per day of cut-price crude was being smuggled from Kurdistan to Iran and, to a lesser extent, Turkey by truck. The sources said the exports remained at around that level.
“Washington is pressuring Baghdad to ensure Kurdish crude is exported to global markets through Turkey rather than being sold cheaply to Iran,” said an Iraqi oil official with knowledge of the crude trucking shipments crossing to Iran.
While the closure of the Turkish pipeline has prompted an uptick in Kurdish oil smuggling via Iran, a larger network that some experts believe generates at least $1 billion a year for Iran and its proxies has flourished in Iraq since al-Sudani took office in 2022, Reuters reported last year.
Two US administration officials confirmed the US had asked the Iraqi government to resume Kurdish exports. One of them said the move would help to dampen upward pressure on oil prices.
Asked about the administration’s pressuring of Iraq to open up Kurdish oil exports, a White House official said: “It’s not only important for regional security that our Kurdish partners be allowed to export their own oil but also help keep the price of gas low.”
There has been close military cooperation between authorities in Kurdistan and the United States in the fight against Islamic State.
Trump’s restoration of the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran was one of his first acts after returning to office in late January. In addition to efforts to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero, Trump ordered the US treasury secretary to ensure that Iran can’t use Iraq’s financial system.
Trump also came into office promising to lower energy costs for Americans. A sharp drop in oil exports from Iran could drive up oil prices, and with it the gasoline price worldwide.
The resumption of Kurdish exports would help offset some of the loss to global supply of lower Iranian exports, but would cover only a fraction of the more than 2 million bpd of crude and fuel that Iran ships. However, Iran has proven adept in the past at finding means to circumvent US sanctions on its oil sales.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said the restart of exports from Kurdistan could help increase global oil supplies at a time when output was disrupted from other regions, such as Kazakhstan, where exports have dropped this week following a Ukrainian drone attack on a major pipeline pumping station in southern Russia.
“At this point in time, I believe the market has adopted a relatively neutral but nervous stance on crude oil prices,” he said.
HURDLES TO RESTART
The pipeline was halted by Turkey in March 2023 after the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ordered Ankara to pay Baghdad $1.5 billion in damages for unauthorized exports between 2014 and 2018.
There are still unresolved issues around payment, pricing and maintenance, the sources told Reuters. Two days of talks in the Kurdish city of Erbil this week failed to reach agreement, sources said.
The federal government wanted exports to restart without making commitments to the KRG on payments and without clarity on the payment mechanism, a source familiar with the matter said.
“We can’t do that. We need clear visibility on guarantees,” the source said.
Oil companies working in Kurdistan also have questions over payments.
Executives from Norwegian firm DNO told analysts on Feb. 6 that before agreeing to ship oil through the pipeline to Ceyhan they wanted to understand how the company would be paid for future deliveries and how it would recoup $300 million for the oil it had delivered before the pipeline was shut.
Turkey has yet to receive any information from Iraq on the resumption of flows, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told Reuters on Wednesday.
A restart could also cause issues in OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, where Iraq has been under pressure to comply with its pledge to reduce its output. Additional supply from the Kurdish region could put Iraq over its OPEC+ supply target.
An Iraqi official said it was possible for Iraq to restart the pipeline and remain compliant with OPEC+ supply policy.
Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at investment bank UBS, said the overall impact of the resumption could be muted.
“From an oil market perspective, Iraq is bound to the OPEC+ production deal, so I wouldn’t expect additional production from Iraq in case of a pipeline restart, but just a change in the way it is exported (currently, among others, using trucks),” he said.
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