US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), a progressive lawmaker and prominent critic of Israel, is facing an uphill battle to secure a victory in his Democratic primary race on Tuesday.

Bowman, the representative of New York’s 16th Congressional District, will attempt to defend his congressional seat against Westchester County executive Mark Latimer. The progressive firebrand has drawn the ire of pro-Israel Democrats in recent months after issuing a series of harsh condemnations against the Jewish state and Zionists writ large. 

In the months following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, Bowman has accused the Jewish state of committing “genocide” in Gaza and enacting an “apartheid” regime in the West Bank. Bowman infamously dismissed the widely reported and corroborated allegations of Hamas terrorists raping Israeli women during the Oct. 7 onslaught as “propaganda” before being forced to walk back his remarks. The congressman has also voted against sending Israel much-needed military aid and, at a recent debate, asserted that the US government should “stop all funding” to Israel — including Iron Dome, an air defense system that saves Israeli lives from rockets and missiles launched by neighboring terrorist groups.

In a heated primary that has been largely defined by the two candidates’ position on Israel, Bowman finds himself as an underdog. Latimer, a self-described progressive who has positioned himself as a staunch ally of the Jewish state, is expected to cruise to an easy victory. 

A June Emerson College poll shows Bowman trailing Latimer by 17 percentage points, 48 percent to 31 percent. The poll also revealed that NY-16 voters align with Latimer’s position on Israel more than Bowman’s by a margin of 45 percent to 29 percent.

Bowman’s repeated excoriations of Israel made him an exceptionally vulnerable candidate in the leafy suburbs of Westchester County, an affluent enclave dominated by moderate Democrats. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY) opted to endorse Latimer over Bowman, citing Latimer’s support for Israel as a major reason. 

“Jewish residents in my district who feel anxiety, fear, and anger due to Representative Bowman’s words and actions in particular and an overall climate in this country,” Jones said.

Furthermore, Bowman’s support also cratered among progressive Jewish voters. J-Street, a liberal Zionist advocacy group, ultimately walked back its endorsement of Bowman, citing “significant differences” on their positions on Israel. 

“I was always having to be his defender,” said Danielle Tagger-Epstein, chair of the Rye City Democratic Committee. “And I could no longer defend his behavior.”

Additionally, Bowman’s vilification of the Jewish state led the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a bipartisan advocacy group that works to strengthen US-Israel ties, to insert itself into the NY-16 primary competition. AIPAC has poured a staggering $14.5 million into the race in an attempt to dislodge Bowman, making it the most expensive House primary contest of all time. In response, Bowman has spent the past few months attacking AIPAC, accusing the organization of being aligned with “racist” Republicans and specifically trying to remove “black and brown” members of Congress.

“We’re gonna show f—king AIPAC the motherf—king power of the South Bronx,” Bowman said at a campaign rally over the weekend.

“This race offers an unambiguous choice. George Latimer is a progressive, pro-Israel candidate while Jamaal Bowman has refused to support the Jewish state as it fights a moral and just war against Iranian terrorist proxies,” AIPAC spokesperson Marshall Wittmann said of the primary contest.

Some consider Tuesday’s primary a test of whether anti-Israel positions are still a liability with Democratic voters. Progressives fear that a Latimer victory could embolden moderate forces to pull the party back to the center on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In recent months,  high-profile Democratic lawmakers have called on Israel to implement a “ceasefire” and abandon its mission to dismantle the Hamas terrorist group in Gaza. 

“If Bowman wins, it might be interpreted by some as an indicator of where the Democratic Party broadly is headed on support for Israel — which is away from it,” said Daniel DiSalvo, a political scientist at City College of New York, according to Vox. “If Latimer wins, it might be interpreted as the other way, which is that there is still stronger support for Israel inside the Democratic Party.”

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