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Joe Biden’s Israel Policy Emboldens Iran and Threatens the World
US President Joe Biden addresses rising levels of antisemitism, during a speech at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Annual Days of Remembrance ceremony, at the US Capitol building in Washington, DC, US, May 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
At some point, Israel’s current war with Iranian proxy Hamas will likely evolve into a direct and protracted war with Iran. Whether or not this happens while Iran is “pre-nuclear,” such conflict could nonetheless “become nuclear.” In part, this is because any Israeli-Iranian competition in strategic risk-taking – a mutual search for “escalation dominance” – could compel Israel to cross the nuclear conflict threshold. Though this crossing would initiate an asymmetrical or one-sided nuclear conflict, it would still represent a genuine nuclear war.
There are clarifying scenarios. To begin, even a pre-nuclear Iran could mount “quasi-nuclear” attacks on Israel with radiation dispersal weapons and/or conventional rocket attacks on the Dimona nuclear reactor. In these worrisome narratives, both unprecedented, Israel could find itself having to escalate to low-yield or tactical nuclear weapons in order to “win.” In a worst-case scenario, North Korea would confront Israel as Iran’s already-nuclear surrogate. Such a scenario ought never to be dismissed out of hand.
What would happen next? What should Israel do now? Most urgently, Jerusalem needs to initiate a prompt or incremental process of “selective nuclear disclosure” (that is, put an end to “deliberate nuclear ambiguity,” aka the “bomb in the basement”), and clarify its assumed “Samson Option.” Whatever the particulars, the overriding point of this presumptively last-resort Israeli option would not be to “die with the Philistines” (per Samson in the biblical Book of Judges), but rather to enhance the credibility of Israel’s nuclear deterrent.
What do we know about the historical background for rendering such unique strategic calculations? Since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, world politics have been anarchic. This means that every nation-state’s security – but especially beleaguered states such as Israel – must rely on the complex and unpredictable dynamics of military threat. To best ensure a credible deterrence posture, Israel should always display an evident willingness to acquire “escalation dominance,” but also avoid drifting inadvertently or uncontrollably into a nuclear war.
In our increasingly unsteady nuclear age, this two-fold obligation – escalation dominance and nuclear war avoidance – could produce either an intentional or unintentional nuclear conflict. Regarding unintentional nuclear war, it could be an irremediable mistake for Israeli planners and policy-makers to assume that mega-conflict between adversarial states would always reflect rational decision-making processes. Moreover, even a rational Iranian adversary could produce unwanted or intolerable outcomes. For Israel, the ultimate survival problem might not be Iranian irrationality or madness, but the cumulatively injurious dynamic of rational Iranian calculation.
Are the odds of an Israel-Iran nuclear conflict meaningfully calculable? The only scientifically correct answer here is “no,” because valid probability judgments in logic and mathematics must always be based upon the determinable frequency of past events: How many times has an Israel-Iran nuclear war happened before? The obvious absence of any relevant past event makes accurate probability assessments impossible.
There is more. Even if assumptions of Iranian rationality were reasonable and well-founded, there would remain various attendant dangers of an unintentional nuclear war. Such potentially existential dangers could be produced by enemy hacking operations, computer malfunction (an accidental nuclear war) or national decision-making miscalculation. In this last causal circumstance, erroneous calculations could be committed by Iran, Israel or both parties.
There is additional nuance. In the especially-ominous third scenario, two-party miscalculation, damaging synergies could arise that would prove difficult or impossible for Israel to manage. By definition, the “whole” outcome of any such synergistic interaction would be greater than the sum of its “parts.” Furthermore, such “force-multiplying” interactions could surface all at once, as a “bolt from the blue,” or in seemingly fathomable increments.
Since 1945, the historic “balance of power” has largely been transformed into a steadily-accelerating “balance of terror.” To an unforeseeable extent, the geo-strategic search for “escalation dominance” by Israel and Iran – a search magnified by the divergent security expectations of a still-ongoing Gaza War – could enlarge the risks of an inadvertent nuclear war. This conclusion remains plausible even if Iran were to remain non–nuclear.
Seemingly out-of-control escalations, after all, could prod Israel to cross the nuclear combat threshold. Most portentously, the likelihood of such unprecedented escalation has been enlarged by US President Joe Biden’s recent embargo on weapons needed by Israel to fight against Hamas criminality. This is because a strengthened Hamas means a strengthened Iran and a greater Iranian willingness to war against Israel directly. The ill-conceived Biden embargo heightens the risk of nuclear weapons use in the region, even while Iran still remains non-nuclear.
There are vital particulars. The risks of any direct Israel-Iran war would include nuclear war by accident and nuclear war by decisional miscalculation. In this fearful scenario, the “solution” for Israel could never be to “wish-away” the search for “escalation dominance,” but rather to manage all prospectively nuclear crises at their lowest possible levels. Wherever feasible, to be sure, it would be best to avoid such existential crises altogether and to maintain reliable “circuit breakers” against strategic hacking and technical malfunction. Realistically, however, to achieve authentically durable nuclear war avoidance in the Middle East, a more promising strategic posture will be required.
The Iranian existential threat to Israel does not exist in vacuo. Israel faces other potential foes and enemy alliances. Pakistan is a nuclear Islamic state with tangible ties to China. Pakistan, like Israel, is not a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). North Korea has already shared advanced ballistic missile technologies with Russia’s Vladimir Putin (North Korean missile fragments were discovered in Ukraine), and could sometime do the same for Iran. “Everything is very simple in war,” says Carl von Clausewitz in On War, “but the simplest thing is very difficult.”
Going forward, Israel should comprehensively consider whether there could be an auspicious place for nuclear threats against its still pre-nuclear Iranian adversary. The “answers” will depend significantly on Israel’s prior transformations of “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” into postures of “selective nuclear disclosure.” Though all such considerations would concern matters that are sui generis or without historical precedent, Israel has absolutely no sensible alternatives to such logic-based investigations.
Various subsidiary questions will arise. What is the probabilistic difference between a deliberate nuclear war and one that would be unintentional? This distinction could prove indispensable to reducing the tangible likelihood of an Israel-Iran nuclear conflict.
More refined thoughts should dawn. Capable Israeli strategists will have to devise optimal strategies for calculating and averting nuclear war with Iran. This task’s difficulty will vary, among other things, according to
(1) presumed Iranian intentions;
(2) presumed plausibility of an accident or Iranian hacking intrusion; and/or
(3) presumed plausibility of Iranian miscalculations.
Any particular instance of accidental nuclear war would be inadvertent. However, not every case of an inadvertent nuclear war would be the result of an accident. On all such terminological matters, underlying conceptual distinctions will have to be kept continuously in mind by dedicated Israeli strategists.
“Escalation dominance” should never be approached by Israeli security planners and policy-makers as a narrowly tactical problem. Instead, informed by in-depth historical understandings and refined analytic capacities, these individuals should prepare themselves for a self-expanding variety of deeply intersecting, even synergistic explanations.
Summing up, the competitive dynamics of nuclear deterrence will never just fade away. In our anarchic or “self-help” world legal system, Israel must continuously prepare to prevail in variously multiplying and interrelated struggles for “escalation dominance.” Over time, no matter how carefully, responsibly and comprehensively such preparations are actually carried out, a world system based on incessant power struggle and unprecedented risk-taking will fail. Regarding the specific security matter here at hand – the growing prospect of an Israel-Iran nuclear war – such failure would be catastrophic.
Nonetheless, Israel’s immediate task should be to “stay alive,” to navigate analytically and systematically amid potentially irreversible harms. Above all, these harms could include a nuclear war with Iran even before that terror-mentoring state becomes an independent nuclear power. Among other possibilities, a mutual Israel-Iran search for “escalation dominance” could sometime cause the Islamic Republic to (1) activate radiation-dispersal weapons; (2) strike Israel’s Dimona reactor with conventional rockets; and/or (3) compel the Jewish State to use its nuclear weapons to avoid irrevocable defeat.
These three catastrophic scenarios have now been rendered more likely by US President Joe Biden’s embargo on terror-fighting weapons to Israel.
Louis René Beres was educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971) and is the author of many books, monographs, and scholarly articles dealing with military nuclear strategy. In Israel, he was Chair of Project Daniel. Over recent years, he has published on nuclear warfare issues in Harvard National Security Journal (Harvard Law School); Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists; International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence; Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs; The Atlantic; Israel Defense; Jewish Website; The New York Times; Israel National News; The Jerusalem Post; The Hill and other sites. A version of this article was originally published by Israel National News.
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NYC Mayoral Contender Cites Hamas-Produced Casualty Figures While Condemning Israel for Restarting Gaza Campaign
Zohran Mamdani. Photo: Ron Adar / SOPA Images via Reuters Connect
Zohran Mamdani, one of the top contenders in the New York City mayoral race, on Tuesday condemned Israel for restarting war operations in the Gaza Strip, accusing the Jewish state of committing a “genocide” and citing Hamas-produced casualty statistics.
“Israel’s renewed bombing of Gaza — funded by our tax dollars — has already killed more than 400 Palestinians in just a few hours, including scores of women and children. It is among the deadliest days of a genocide which has taken the lives of more than 50,000 civilians,” Mamdani said in a statement. “‘The Israeli government has chosen to give up on the hostages,’ an organization of Israeli families said this morning. The Trump administration must bring all of its pressure to bear on [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to establish the ceasefire now.”
On Monday night, Israel resumed airstrikes targeting Hamas in Gaza under the directive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose office said in a statement that the military action followed “Hamas’s repeated refusal to release our hostages, as well as its rejection of all of the proposals it has received from US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and from the mediators.”
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry claimed that around 400 Palestinians were killed from the initial Israeli airstrikes, although the ministry does not distinguish between terrorist combatants and civilians. Moreover, researchers have shown that casualty figures published by Gaza’s Hamas-run health authorities have been inflated to defame Israel.
Mamdani, a representative within the New York State Assembly and progressive firebrand, has made anti-Israel activism a cornerstone of his political career. Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, has both advanced state legislation seeking to punish Israel and labeled the Jewish state’s defensive military operations in Gaza a “genocide.”
Although Mamdani is considered a threat to win the New York City mayorship, his position in the race has slipped. Mamdani commands 8 percent of the vote among New Yorkers, good enough for third place, according to a poll by Quinnipiac conducted between Feb. 27-Mar. 3. Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo holds a commanding lead at 38 percent, per Quinnipiac.
Comparatively, according to a poll conducted by Honan Strategy Group from Feb. 22-23, Mamdani previously sat in second place with 12 percent of the vote.
In 2021, Mamdani issued public support for the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement —an initiative which seeks to economically and diplomatically isolate Israel iasthe first step to its eventual destruction. He claimed that support for the anti-Israel movement is growing within New York City, saying on X/Twitter that “the tide is turning. The fight for justice is here. The moment is now.”
That same year, he also called for prohibiting New York lawmakers from visiting Israel, asserting that “every elected [official] must be pressured to stand with Palestinians.”
In May 2023, Mamdani advanced the “Not on Our Dime! Ending New York Funding of Israeli Settler Violence Act,” legislation which would ban charities from using tax-deductible donations to aid organizations that work in the West Bank. Mamdani argued that the legislation would help the state fight against so-called Israeli “war crimes” against Palestinians. The socialist dismissed critics of the legislation, saying that his anti-Israel proposal is “in line with the sentiments of most New Yorkers.”
On Oct. 8, 2023, 24 hours following the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, Mamdani published a statement condemning “Netanyahu’s declaration of war” and suggesting that Israel would use the terror attacks to justify committing a second “Nakba.” Many Palestinians and anti-Israel activists use the term “Nakba,” or “catastrophe,” to refer to the establishment of the modern state of Israel in 1948.
Mamdani then said that Israel can only secure its long-term safety by “ending the occupation and dismantling apartheid.”
Five days later, he further criticized Israel’s response to the Hamas-led massacres, saying that “we are on the brink of a genocide of Palestinians in Gaza right now.”
In January 2024, he called on New York City to cease sending funds to Israel, saying that “Voters oppose their tax dollars funding a genocide.”
In addition, Mamdani is a high-profile member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a far-left political organization with critical views of Israel. Though the DSA has long opposed Israel, the organization has ramped up its pro-Hamas rhetoric during the ongoing war in Gaza. On Oct. 7, the organization issued a statement saying that Hamas’s massacre was “a direct result of Israel’s apartheid regime.” The organization also encouraged its followers to attend an Oct. 8 “All Out for Palestine” event in Manhattan.
In January 2024, the DSA issued a statement calling for an “end to diplomatic and military support of Israel.” Then in April, the organization’s international committee, DSA IC, issued a missive defending Iran’s right to “self-defense” against Israel. In addition, the socialist group slammed former US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) over his vote in favor of replenishing Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system.
Mamdani’s political ascendance comes amid a spike in anti-Jewish hate crimes within New York City.
New York City has been ravaged by a surge in antisemitic incidents in the 17 months following the Oct. 7 massacre. According to police data, Jews were targeted as the victims in a majority of all hate crimes in the city last year.
Meanwhile, pro-Hamas activists have held raucous — and sometimes violent — protests on the city’s college campuses, oftentimes causing Jewish students to fear for their safety. New York City schools are also currently facing criticism for failing to protect Jewish and Israeli students from antisemitism.
The post NYC Mayoral Contender Cites Hamas-Produced Casualty Figures While Condemning Israel for Restarting Gaza Campaign first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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South Africans Slam Government for Using Taxpayer Funds for ‘Politically Motivated’ Genocide Case Against Israel
Director-General of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation of South Africa Zane Dangor and South African Ambassador to the Netherlands Vusimuzi Madonsela talk at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), at the start of a hearing where South Africa requests new emergency measures over Israel’s operations in Rafah, in The Hague, Netherlands, May 16, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman
A leading pro-Israel organization in South Africa has condemned the government’s “appalling misuse of taxpayer funds” to finance what it called a “politically motivated and baseless” case at the UN’s top court accusing the Jewish state of committing genocide in Gaza.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, the South African Zionist Federation (SAZF) denounced the government’s latest allocation of R37 million (approximately $2 million) to its case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as reported by local media, bringing the total to R132 million (approximately $7 million) used for “ideological grandstanding while South Africa teeters on the brink of collapse.”
“At a time when South Africa is in the grip of an economic and social crisis — unemployment at a catastrophic 35 percent (60 percent among youth), a collapsing health-care system, load-shedding that has crippled the economy, and 2.3 million households without proper housing — this reckless waste is indefensible,” the statement read.
“Schools are in disrepair, crime is rampant, and corruption has bled the country dry — yet instead of addressing these urgent crises, the government is funneling desperately needed public funds into a foreign legal campaign designed to delegitimize Israel’s right to defend itself against those who openly call for its destruction,” SAZF continued.
Since December 2023, South Africa has been pursuing its case at the ICJ accusing Israel of committing “state-led genocide” in its defensive war against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.
Israeli leaders have condemned the case as an “obscene exploitation” of the Genocide Convention, noting that the Jewish state is targeting terrorists who use civilians as human shields in its military campaign.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s Jewish community has, like the SAZF, lambasted the case as “grandstanding” rather than actual concern for those killed in the Middle Eastern conflict.
Last year, the ICJ ruled there was “plausibility” to South Africa’s claims that Palestinians had a right to be protected from genocide. However, the top UN court did not make a determination on the merits of South Africa’s allegations, which may take years to go through the judicial process, nor did it call for Israel to halt its military campaign.
Instead, the ICJ issued a more general directive that Israel must make sure it prevents acts of genocide. The ruling also called for the release of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas during the terrorist group’s massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
In its statement, SAZF said that the South Africa government “has deliberately misrepresented this ruling as a victory, using it to justify its ongoing legal assault on Israel while ignoring the reality that Hamas are the true perpetrators of genocide.”
“Rather than recovering looted billions or addressing the suffering of its own citizens, the South African government prioritizes global theatrics, aligning itself with terror groups over the urgent needs of its people,” the statement added.
Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists started the war in Gaza when they murdered 1,200 people and kidnapped 251 hostages during their invasion of southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
Israel responded with a military campaign aimed at freeing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities in neighboring Gaza.
Last month, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to “halt foreign aid or assistance” to South Africa partly in response to the country’s ICJ case and anti-Israel stance.
Trump’s executive order puts at risk not only $440 million in aid to South Africa but also tariff-free access to US markets under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, presenting a major challenge for the South African coalition government, which took power last year after the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in parliament for the first time in South Africa’s post-apartheid democratic history.
In January, Cuba officially became the latest country to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, following Ireland, Nicaragua, Colombia, Mexico, Libya, Bolivia, Turkey, the Maldives, Chile, Spain, and “Palestine.”
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Freed Israeli Hostages, Families of Captives React to Collapse of Gaza Ceasefire
Families and supporters of Israeli hostages kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas gather to demand a deal that will bring back all the hostages held in Gaza, outside a meeting between hostage representatives and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in Jerusalem, Jan. 14, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
Freed Israeli hostages and families of those in captivity in Gaza reacted to news of Israel resuming military operations against Hamas as the ceasefire and hostage-release deal between them collapsed on Monday night.
“We heard from survivors who returned from hell, and the message was clear: We must immediately return to a ceasefire,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, the largest organization dedicated to the release of the hostages, wrote on X. “The lives of our loved ones hang by a thread and cannot endure much longer. After surviving months in captivity against all odds, they are now in critical danger. Only a deal can bring back all the hostages.”
Since Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7, 2023 — in which the Palestinian terrorist group led the massacre of 1,200 people and kidnapping of 251 hostages during their invasion of southern Israel — well over 100 hostages have been released through negotiated ceasefire deals, and the Israeli military has rescued a smaller number in special operations.
There are currently 59 hostages still in Hamas’s captivity in Gaza, and over half of them are believed to be dead.
In another post, the forum wrote that, at a news conference, the families of some hostages “warned that continued fighting would lead to more hostage deaths and urged an immediate ceasefire and return to negotiations to secure the release of all remaining hostages.”
Noa Argamani, who became famous on Oct. 7, 2023, after an image of her being kidnapped from the Nova Music Festival — where Hamas murdered hundreds of young people — and separated from her boyfriend, Avinatan Or, was seen widely. Argamani, who has been speaking across the United States to advocate for the release of the rest of the hostages since her rescue from Hapas captivity last year, shared a message this week about the end of the ceasefire.
“Fighting Resumes. Two words, and so many emotions inside. Suddenly, out of the silence, all hopes explode in an instant,” Argamani wrote. “Two words, but for the hostages inside, they mean explosions and noises that bring back the fear of dying.”
Argamani explained the hope she felt in captivity when she heard of the first ceasefire and hostage-release deal in November 2023. “Every day, I held on to that hope. I told myself there was no way I wouldn’t make it out alive.”
“But then, in a single moment,” she continued, “we started hearing the explosions again. Suddenly, all the dreams of going home, of hugging family and friends — shattered in an instant. The thought of seeing the light again felt so far away. One moment, the ceasefire was gone, and with it, the hope that I would get out of there alive.”
Argamani concluded: “I’m sorry, Avinatan. I’m sorry that for 529 days, you haven’t seen daylight. I’m sorry that you were left behind. We must save them! Too many hostages who were taken alive — were murdered in captivity. We must save every living soul! This is our mission. We cannot leave them behind.”
Similarly, Yarden Bibas, who was held hostage for over a year and whose wife and children — Shiri, Kfir, and Ariel — were all murdered by Hamas, posted on Facebook against the decision to renew the war.
“Israel’s decision to return to fighting brings me back to Gaza, to the moments where I heard the sounds of explosions around me and where I feared for my life as I was afraid the tunnel where I was being held would collapse,” Bibas wrote. “My wife and children were kidnapped alive and brutally murdered in captivity. The military pressure endangers the hostages while an agreement brings them home.”
“We must stop the fighting and bring everyone home first of all,” he concluded.
However, not all hostages and hostage families oppose revamping the war effort.
The Tikva Forum — a right-wing alternative to the main hostage family organizations — wrote in a statement that it fully supports resuming fighting against Hamas, arguing it is only intense pressure on the terrorist group that will result in the hostages being freed.
“The past few weeks have proven what we have been saying all along – Hamas will never return all the abductees voluntarily,” the Tikva Forum wrote. “Only massive military pressure, a complete blockade that includes a power and water cut, and the occupation of territories that will lead to Hamas’s collapse, will lead it to beg for a ceasefire and a deal that will return all the abductees together, in one fell swoop.”
It concluded, “If the attack that began [Monday] continues with force and without interruption, we will be able to bring all our loved ones home in one fell swoop, on one bus.”
The post Freed Israeli Hostages, Families of Captives React to Collapse of Gaza Ceasefire first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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