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Normalization with Saudi Arabia: A Distant Dream or a Dangerous Illusion?

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends the 45th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in Kuwait city, Kuwait, Dec. 1, 2024. Photo: Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS
The possibility of diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been a topic of heated debate in recent years. As geopolitical dynamics shift, the question remains: is normalization an inevitable outcome of evolving Middle Eastern politics, or is it a deceptive illusion that could empower an authoritarian regime and strengthen extremist forces?
The prospect of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has largely been driven by strategic calculations rather than ideological shifts. Saudi Arabia has historically positioned itself as a leader in the Arab and Islamic world, emphasizing the Palestinian cause as a central component of its foreign policy. However, with the emergence of new regional challenges, including Iran’s growing influence and the shifting role of the United States in the Middle East, Riyadh’s priorities have begun to change. But at what cost?
One of the key factors influencing Saudi-Israeli normalization is the kingdom’s relationship with the United States. The Trump administration has made it a priority to push for normalization, seeing it as a cornerstone of broader regional stability. However, Washington’s willingness to overlook Saudi Arabia’s human rights violations, its funding of radical Islamist groups, and its questionable role in regional conflicts should raise alarms. A US-brokered deal that rewards Saudi Arabia with security guarantees and advanced weaponry could further embolden its aggressive foreign policy, leading to more instability rather than peace.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has introduced sweeping economic and social reforms under the Vision 2030 initiative, aiming to transform Saudi Arabia into a global economic powerhouse. However, beneath the surface of these modernization efforts lies a deeply authoritarian regime that silences dissent, funds extremist ideologies worldwide, and continues to impose severe restrictions on human rights. Any normalization agreement that strengthens MBS’ grip on power risks exacerbating these problems rather than resolving them.
Despite potential economic benefits, the Palestinian issue remains a significant obstacle to normalization. Saudi Arabia has reiterated its commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative, which conditions normalization with Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state with eastern Jerusalem as its capital. However, in practice, Riyadh’s stance appears increasingly performative, as the kingdom continues to maintain backdoor relations with Israel while failing to take meaningful action to support Palestinian self-determination. If Saudi Arabia ultimately normalizes relations without securing major concessions for Palestinians, it will expose its long-standing rhetoric as little more than empty posturing.
Another critical concern is Saudi Arabia’s long history of involvement with radical Islamist movements. While the kingdom has taken steps in recent years to distance itself from jihadist groups, its past funding of Wahhabi extremism and its questionable ties to groups like Hamas raise serious doubts about its commitment to regional stability. Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and several other countries, has historically received support from Saudi-aligned entities. A normalization deal that fails to address these lingering connections could further empower militant factions and escalate violence.
Public sentiment in Saudi Arabia also plays a crucial role in the kingdom’s decision-making process. Unlike the UAE and Bahrain, where leadership-driven policies paved the way for normalization, Saudi Arabia’s deeply religious and conservative society presents a different challenge. Anti-Israel sentiment is still widespread, and many Saudis view normalization as a betrayal of Islamic principles. This raises the question: is MBS willing to risk domestic unrest to secure a deal that primarily serves his geopolitical ambitions?
The shifting role of the United States in the region is another variable to consider. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy — where alliances are dictated by economic deals rather than long-term strategic stability — raises concerns about the sustainability of any normalization agreement. Saudi Arabia, aware of US political volatility, has been hedging its bets by strengthening ties with China and Russia, signaling that its loyalty to Washington is far from guaranteed.
While normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel may seem like a step toward peace, it could, in reality, be a dangerous illusion. The geopolitical and economic incentives for both nations are clear, but the risks far outweigh the benefits. Strengthening an authoritarian regime with a track record of human rights abuses, fueling regional power struggles, and indirectly empowering jihadist groups are consequences that cannot be ignored. The future of Saudi-Israeli relations must be approached with extreme caution — failure to do so could turn a supposed diplomatic victory into a long-term security nightmare for the entire region.
Amine Ayoub, a Middle East Forum Fellow, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco.
The post Normalization with Saudi Arabia: A Distant Dream or a Dangerous Illusion? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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After False Dawns, Gazans Hope Trump Will Force End to Two-Year-Old War

Palestinians walk past a residential building destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, after Hamas agreed to release hostages and accept some other terms in a US plan to end the war, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
Exhausted Palestinians in Gaza clung to hopes on Saturday that US President Donald Trump would keep up pressure on Israel to end a two-year-old war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced the entire population of more than two million.
Hamas’ declaration that it was ready to hand over hostages and accept some terms of Trump’s plan to end the conflict while calling for more talks on several key issues was greeted with relief in the enclave, where most homes are now in ruins.
“It’s happy news, it saves those who are still alive,” said 32-year-old Saoud Qarneyta, reacting to Hamas’ response and Trump’s intervention. “This is enough. Houses have been damaged, everything has been damaged, what is left? Nothing.”
GAZAN RESIDENT HOPES ‘WE WILL BE DONE WITH WARS’
Ismail Zayda, 40, a father of three, displaced from a suburb in northern Gaza City where Israel launched a full-scale ground operation last month, said: “We want President Trump to keep pushing for an end to the war, if this chance is lost, it means that Gaza City will be destroyed by Israel and we might not survive.
“Enough, two years of bombardment, death and starvation. Enough,” he told Reuters on a social media chat.
“God willing this will be the last war. We will hopefully be done with the wars,” said 59-year-old Ali Ahmad, speaking in one of the tented camps where most Palestinians now live.
“We urge all sides not to backtrack. Every day of delay costs lives in Gaza, it is not just time wasted, lives get wasted too,” said Tamer Al-Burai, a Gaza City businessman displaced with members of his family in central Gaza Strip.
After two previous ceasefires — one near the start of the war and another earlier this year — lasted only a few weeks, he said; “I am very optimistic this time, maybe Trump’s seeking to be remembered as a man of peace, will bring us real peace this time.”
RESIDENT WORRIES THAT NETANYAHU WILL ‘SABOTAGE’ DEAL
Some voiced hopes of returning to their homes, but the Israeli military issued a fresh warning to Gazans on Saturday to stay out of Gaza City, describing it as a “dangerous combat zone.”
Gazans have faced previous false dawns during the past two years, when Trump and others declared at several points during on-off negotiations between Hamas, Israel and Arab and US mediators that a deal was close, only for war to rage on.
“Will it happen? Can we trust Trump? Maybe we trust Trump, but will Netanyahu abide this time? He has always sabotaged everything and continued the war. I hope he ends it now,” said Aya, 31, who was displaced with her family to Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip.
She added: “Maybe there is a chance the war ends at October 7, two years after it began.”
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Mass Rally in Rome on Fourth Day of Italy’s Pro-Palestinian Protests

A Pro-Palestinian demonstrator waves a Palestinian flag during a national protest for Gaza in Rome, Italy, October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Claudia Greco
Large crowds assembled in central Rome on Saturday for the fourth straight day of protests in Italy since Israel intercepted an international flotilla trying to deliver aid to Gaza, and detained its activists.
People holding banners and Palestinian flags, chanting “Free Palestine” and other slogans, filed past the Colosseum, taking part in a march that organizers hoped would attract at least 1 million people.
“I’m here with a lot of other friends because I think it is important for us all to mobilize individually,” Francesco Galtieri, a 65-year-old musician from Rome, said. “If we don’t all mobilize, then nothing will change.”
Since Israel started blocking the flotilla late on Wednesday, protests have sprung up across Europe and in other parts of the world, but in Italy they have been a daily occurrence, in multiple cities.
On Friday, unions called a general strike in support of the flotilla, with demonstrations across the country that attracted more than 2 million, according to organizers. The interior ministry estimated attendance at around 400,000.
Italy’s right-wing government has been critical of the protests, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggesting that people would skip work for Gaza just as an excuse for a longer weekend break.
On Saturday, Meloni blamed protesters for insulting graffiti that appeared on a statue of the late Pope John Paul II outside Rome’s main train station, where Pro-Palestinian groups have been holding a protest picket.
“They say they are taking to the streets for peace, but then they insult the memory of a man who was a true defender and builder of peace. A shameful act committed by people blinded by ideology,” she said in a statement.
Israel launched its Gaza offensive after Hamas terrorists staged a cross border attack on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 people hostage.
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Hamas Says It Agrees to Release All Israeli Hostages Under Trump Gaza Plan

Smoke rises during an Israeli military operation in Gaza City, as seen from the central Gaza Strip, October 2, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas
Hamas said on Friday it had agreed to release all Israeli hostages, alive or dead, under the terms of US President Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal, and signaled readiness to immediately enter mediated negotiations to discuss the details.