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Normalization with Saudi Arabia: A Distant Dream or a Dangerous Illusion?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends the 45th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in Kuwait city, Kuwait, Dec. 1, 2024. Photo: Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS
The possibility of diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been a topic of heated debate in recent years. As geopolitical dynamics shift, the question remains: is normalization an inevitable outcome of evolving Middle Eastern politics, or is it a deceptive illusion that could empower an authoritarian regime and strengthen extremist forces?
The prospect of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has largely been driven by strategic calculations rather than ideological shifts. Saudi Arabia has historically positioned itself as a leader in the Arab and Islamic world, emphasizing the Palestinian cause as a central component of its foreign policy. However, with the emergence of new regional challenges, including Iran’s growing influence and the shifting role of the United States in the Middle East, Riyadh’s priorities have begun to change. But at what cost?
One of the key factors influencing Saudi-Israeli normalization is the kingdom’s relationship with the United States. The Trump administration has made it a priority to push for normalization, seeing it as a cornerstone of broader regional stability. However, Washington’s willingness to overlook Saudi Arabia’s human rights violations, its funding of radical Islamist groups, and its questionable role in regional conflicts should raise alarms. A US-brokered deal that rewards Saudi Arabia with security guarantees and advanced weaponry could further embolden its aggressive foreign policy, leading to more instability rather than peace.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has introduced sweeping economic and social reforms under the Vision 2030 initiative, aiming to transform Saudi Arabia into a global economic powerhouse. However, beneath the surface of these modernization efforts lies a deeply authoritarian regime that silences dissent, funds extremist ideologies worldwide, and continues to impose severe restrictions on human rights. Any normalization agreement that strengthens MBS’ grip on power risks exacerbating these problems rather than resolving them.
Despite potential economic benefits, the Palestinian issue remains a significant obstacle to normalization. Saudi Arabia has reiterated its commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative, which conditions normalization with Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state with eastern Jerusalem as its capital. However, in practice, Riyadh’s stance appears increasingly performative, as the kingdom continues to maintain backdoor relations with Israel while failing to take meaningful action to support Palestinian self-determination. If Saudi Arabia ultimately normalizes relations without securing major concessions for Palestinians, it will expose its long-standing rhetoric as little more than empty posturing.
Another critical concern is Saudi Arabia’s long history of involvement with radical Islamist movements. While the kingdom has taken steps in recent years to distance itself from jihadist groups, its past funding of Wahhabi extremism and its questionable ties to groups like Hamas raise serious doubts about its commitment to regional stability. Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and several other countries, has historically received support from Saudi-aligned entities. A normalization deal that fails to address these lingering connections could further empower militant factions and escalate violence.
Public sentiment in Saudi Arabia also plays a crucial role in the kingdom’s decision-making process. Unlike the UAE and Bahrain, where leadership-driven policies paved the way for normalization, Saudi Arabia’s deeply religious and conservative society presents a different challenge. Anti-Israel sentiment is still widespread, and many Saudis view normalization as a betrayal of Islamic principles. This raises the question: is MBS willing to risk domestic unrest to secure a deal that primarily serves his geopolitical ambitions?
The shifting role of the United States in the region is another variable to consider. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy — where alliances are dictated by economic deals rather than long-term strategic stability — raises concerns about the sustainability of any normalization agreement. Saudi Arabia, aware of US political volatility, has been hedging its bets by strengthening ties with China and Russia, signaling that its loyalty to Washington is far from guaranteed.
While normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel may seem like a step toward peace, it could, in reality, be a dangerous illusion. The geopolitical and economic incentives for both nations are clear, but the risks far outweigh the benefits. Strengthening an authoritarian regime with a track record of human rights abuses, fueling regional power struggles, and indirectly empowering jihadist groups are consequences that cannot be ignored. The future of Saudi-Israeli relations must be approached with extreme caution — failure to do so could turn a supposed diplomatic victory into a long-term security nightmare for the entire region.
Amine Ayoub, a Middle East Forum Fellow, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco.
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Trump Says Iran Must Give Up Dream of Nuclear Weapon or Face Harsh Response
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
President Donald Trump said on Monday he believes Iran is intentionally delaying a nuclear deal with the United States and that it must abandon any drive for a nuclear weapon or face a possible military strike on Tehran’s atomic facilities.
“I think they’re tapping us along,” Trump told reporters after US special envoy Steve Witkoff met in Oman on Saturday with a senior Iranian official.
Both Iran and the United States said on Saturday that they held “positive” and “constructive” talks in Oman. A second round is scheduled for Saturday, and a source briefed on the planning said the meeting was likely to be held in Rome.
The source, speaking to Reuters on the condition of anonymity, said the discussions are aimed at exploring what is possible, including a broad framework of what a potential deal would look like.
“Iran has to get rid of the concept of a nuclear weapon. They cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
Asked if US options for a response include a military strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, Trump said: “Of course it does.”
Trump said the Iranians need to move fast to avoid a harsh response because “they’re fairly close” to developing a nuclear weapon.
The US and Iran held indirect talks during former President Joe Biden’s term but they made little, if any progress. The last known direct negotiations between the two governments were under then-President Barack Obama, who spearheaded the 2015 international nuclear deal that Trump later abandoned.
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No Breakthrough in Gaza Talks, Egyptian and Palestinian Sources Say
Families and supporters of Israeli hostages kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas gather to demand a deal that will bring back all the hostages held in Gaza, outside a meeting between hostage representatives and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in Jerusalem, Jan. 14, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
The latest round of talks in Cairo to restore the defunct Gaza ceasefire and free Israeli hostages ended with no apparent breakthrough, Palestinian and Egyptian sources said on Monday.
The sources said Hamas had stuck to its position that any agreement must lead to an end to the war in Gaza.
Israel, which restarted its military campaign in Gaza last month after a ceasefire agreed in January unraveled, has said it will not end the war until Hamas is stamped out. The terrorist group has ruled out any proposal that it lay down its arms.
But despite that fundamental disagreement, the sources said a Hamas delegation led by the group’s Gaza Chief Khalil Al-Hayya had shown some flexibility over how many hostages it could free in return for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel should a truce be extended.
An Egyptian source told Reuters the latest proposal to extend the truce would see Hamas free an increased number of hostages. Israeli minister Zeev Elkin, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet, told Army Radio on Monday that Israel was seeking the release of around 10 hostages, raised from previous Hamas consent to free five.
Hamas has asked for more time to respond to the latest proposal, the Egyptian source said.
“Hamas has no problem, but it wants guarantees Israel agrees to begin the talks on the second phase of the ceasefire agreement” leading to an end to the war, the Egyptian source said.
AIRSTRIKES
Hamas terrorists freed 33 Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian detainees during the six-week first phase of the ceasefire which began in January. But the second phase, which was meant to begin at the start of March and lead to the end of the war, was never launched.
Meanwhile, 59 Israeli hostages remain in the hands of the terrorists. Israel believes up to 24 of them are alive.
Palestinians say the wave of Israeli attacks since the collapse of the ceasefire has been among the deadliest and most intense of the war, hitting an exhausted population surviving in the enclave’s ruins.
In Jabalia, a community on Gaza’s northern edge, rescue workers in orange vests were trying to smash through concrete with a sledgehammer to recover bodies buried underneath a building that collapsed in an Israeli strike.
Feet and a hand of one person could be seen under a concrete slab. Men carried a body wrapped in a blanket. Workers at the scene said as many as 25 people had been killed.
The Israeli military said it had struck there against terrorists planning an ambush.
In Khan Younis in the south, a camp of makeshift tents had been shredded into piles of debris by an airstrike. Families had returned to poke through the rubbish in search of belongings.
“We used to live in houses. They were destroyed. Now, our tents have been destroyed too. We don’t know where to stay,” said Ismail al-Raqab, who returned to the area after his family fled the raid before dawn.
EGYPT’S SISI MEETS QATARI EMIR
The leaders of the two Arab countries that have led the ceasefire mediation efforts, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, met in Doha on Sunday. The Egyptian source said Sisi had called for additional international guarantees for a truce agreement, beyond those provided by Egypt and Qatar themselves.
US President Donald Trump, who has backed Israel’s decision to resume its campaign and called for the Palestinian population of Gaza to leave the territory, said last week that progress was being made in returning the hostages.
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Iranian Foreign Minister to Visit Moscow Ahead of Second Iran-US Meeting
FILE PHOTO: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi speaks as he meets with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein, in Baghdad, Iraq October 13, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ahmed Saad/File Photo
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Russia this week ahead of a planned second round of talks between Tehran and Washington aimed at resolving Iran’s decades-long nuclear stand-off with the West.
Araqchi and US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held talks in Oman on Saturday, during which Omani envoy Badr al-Busaidi shuttled between the two delegations sitting in different rooms at his palace in Muscat.
Both sides described the talks in Oman as “positive,” although a senior Iranian official told Reuters the meeting “was only aimed at setting the terms of possible future negotiations.”
Italian news agency ANSA reported that Italy had agreed to host the talks’ second round, and Iraq’s state news agency said Araqchi told his Iraqi counterpart that talks would be held “soon” in the Italian capital under Omani mediation.
Tehran has approached the talks warily, doubting the likelihood of an agreement and suspicious of Trump, who has threatened to bomb Iran if there is no deal.
Washington aims to halt Tehran’s sensitive uranium enrichment work – regarded by the United States, Israel and European powers as a path to nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is solely for civilian energy production.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Araqchi will “discuss the latest developments related to the Muscat talks” with Russian officials.
Moscow, a party to Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact, has supported Tehran’s right to have a civilian nuclear program.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on vital state matters, distrusts the United States, and Trump in particular.
But Khamenei has been forced to engage with Washington in search of a nuclear deal due to fears that public anger at home over economic hardship could erupt into mass protests and endanger the existence of the clerical establishment, four Iranian officials told Reuters in March.
Tehran’s concerns were exacerbated by Trump’s speedy revival of his “maximum pressure” campaign when he returned to the White House in January.
During his first term, Trump ditched Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on the Islamic regime.
Since 2019, Iran has far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on uranium enrichment, producing stocks at a high level of fissile purity, well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy program and close to that required for nuclear warheads.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised the alarm regarding Iran’s growing stock of 60% enriched uranium, and reported no real progress on resolving long-running issues, including the unexplained presence of uranium traces at undeclared sites.
IAEA head Rafael Grossi will visit Tehran on Wednesday, Iranian media reported, in an attempt to narrow gaps between Tehran and the agency over unresolved issues.
“Continued engagement and cooperation with the agency is essential at a time when diplomatic solutions are urgently needed,” Grossi said on X on Monday.
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