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Only Defeating Hamas Can Lead to an Israeli-Saudi Normalization Deal

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Saturday Oct. 14, 2023. Jacquelyn Martin/Pool via REUTERS

United States President Joe Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, visited Israel and Saudi Arabia in mid-May, offering a Saudi-Israeli normalization package that he says would lead to greater peace, stability, and security in the region.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the offer, because it demanded two major concessions from Jerusalem that Netanyahu is currently not prepared to make: an end to the war in Gaza and a path forward to a Palestinian state, despite not having a clear partner for peace.

Impatient for a win ahead of the November elections and frustrated by Israel’s rebuff, Biden may move forward with a deal with the Saudis that leaves Jerusalem behind.

The Biden administration is trying to recapture momentum towards a trilateral US-Saudi-Israel normalization deal that seemed imminent before the horrific Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the bloody war that ensued. Under the terms of last year’s proposal, each side had a lot to gain from a deal.

Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman — commonly known as MBS — was to get three primary asks: a defense pact with the US, a new, sophisticated US weapons package, including some offensive capabilities, and an independent civil nuclear program that the US would provide to include uranium enrichment on Saudi soil.

In addition, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia demanded (reportedly due in part to pressure from Washington) that Jerusalem publicly endorse a relatively amorphous “pathway” to a Palestinian state, with likely Israeli concessions on hot button issues like settlements.

Jerusalem would have gained normalization with Riyadh — one of Netanyahu’s preeminent goals after winning his election in 2022 — and the hope that a cascade of Arab and Muslim countries would follow the Kingdom. A further incentive for Jerusalem to normalize ties with the Kingdom is to bolster the regional coalition against Iran.

It is very much in US interests to strengthen the regional security architecture in the Middle East, especially as America reduces its military footprint in the region. Biden also wanted to expand peace in a troubled region, lock in a deal to sell expensive weapons to the oil-rich Saudis, and achieve a major diplomatic win in his first term as president.

According to Hamas, scuttling the normalization deal was one of the motivations for attacking Israel last fall. The deal was paused soon after Hamas attacked the Jewish State.

In recent months, the US has been pushing hard to get the trilateral deal back on track, but the horrific attacks of October 7 and the bloody war that ensued have — at least temporarily — changed the cost-benefit equation for both Bibi and MBS.

October 7 made the Israelis feel incredibly vulnerable. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis from Northern and Southern Israel — who were at the highest risk of deadly rocket fire — were evacuated from their homes. But all Israelis are vulnerable to attack.

Every Israeli lives within rocket range or sniper range of Iran-backed terrorists. For the past several months, Israelis have continued to experience the relentless rocket sirens, the trauma of the missing hostages, loved ones fighting on the front, and a precipitous spike in terrorism that has killed dozens in Israel since October 7. Given the very real threats, Israelis overwhelmingly support the war in Gaza and will likely continue to do so until Hamas is no longer able to terrorize the country.

MBS understands that Israel’s war on Hamas, which — despite the lowest civilian to terrorist casualty ratio in the history — has resulted in many civilian casualties in Gaza, and that this has galvanized the Arab street.

The images coming out of Gaza are harrowing, and the trauma felt by Palestinians and Arabs worldwide — including in Saudi Arabia — should not be underestimated. MBS knows that he cannot normalize ties while the war rages in Gaza, based on the pre-war terms of the deal.

Despite these new challenges, the administration is hungry for a diplomatic win. Biden’s polling numbers are weak, and November is shaping up to be a tough race. Biden’s national security advisor came to the region last month in an attempt to deliver a much-needed diplomatic victory to the president, as well as peace to the region.

But what did Sullivan offer Riyadh and Jerusalem?

After consultations with the Saudis, Sullivan is offering the Kingdom much of what was on the table last time — a defense pact, a civil nuclear program, and a weapons package — but MBS now wants a bigger gesture towards a “credible pathway” to Palestinian statehood — and is additionally requiring a “ceasefire in Gaza”; effectively an end to the war.

Sullivan came to Jerusalem with an addition to his offer for Netanyahu that he hoped would be a deal-sweetener — a limited defense treaty with the US in which the US would come to Israel’s defense if the Jewish State was facing an existential threat.

There has long been a conversation in Israel as to whether a defense treaty with the US would be a wise arrangement for Israel. One of the founding principles of Zionism and Israel’s national defense ethos is that Israel should be able to defend itself by itself. The Jewish people, who were stateless for millennia, would not put themselves at the mercy of another power.

A defense treaty may be enticing for some in Netanyahu’s close circles, but it is not compelling enough for Jerusalem to agree to the terms of the new deal; the disadvantages far outweigh the benefits. If Netanyahu accepts Sullvian’s offer, threatens to prematurely end the war in Gaza, and makes a premature overture toward Palestinian statehood — which there is no indication he wants to do — his leadership coalition would immediately collapse, and Israel would head to their sixth election in six years.

After the meeting, Netanyahu told Sullivan and the Israeli public that, while normalization with the Kingdom would be a considerable boon for Israel, the price tag was too high.

With the ticking clock of the presidential elections looming, new reports suggest that Biden may be planning to cinch the deal with Saudi Arabia and present it to American voters as a fait accompli.

But Israel cannot fight this existential war against Hamas according to the US election cycle. Despite the electoral pressures Biden is facing, Washington needs to exercise patience.

It is possible that the war in Gaza will look very different in a matter of months. Once the IDF can sufficiently declaw Hamas, bring back the hostages, and end the war with the correct guarantees and incentives from Washington, Jerusalem will likely be ready to begin working with partners to chart a new future for Gaza. At that point, a normalization deal like Sullivan’s will likely hold renewed appeal for Jerusalem, as Saudi Arabia and the moderate Arab regimes could play a critical role in the enclave’s future. Washington and Riyadh will find Jerusalem more flexible on issues that present stumbling blocks today.

To expedite Israel’s war in Gaza, and create potential for a greater regional peace, the US must remain steadfast in its support of the Jewish State.

Enia Krivine is the senior director of the Israel Program and the FDD National Security Network at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow her on X at @EKrivine. Brig. Gen. (Res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at the Technion. He served as the national security advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and as the acting head of the National Security Council.

The post Only Defeating Hamas Can Lead to an Israeli-Saudi Normalization Deal first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students

Haredi Jewish men look at the scene of an explosion at a bus stop in Jerusalem, Israel, on Nov. 23, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Ammar Awad

Israel’s military said it would issue 54,000 call-up notices to ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students following a Supreme Court ruling mandating their conscription and amid growing pressure from reservists stretched by extended deployments.

The Supreme Court ruling last year overturned a decades-old exemption for ultra-Orthodox students, a policy established when the community comprised a far smaller segment of the population than the 13 percent it represents today.

Military service is compulsory for most Israeli Jews from the age of 18, lasting 24-32 months, with additional reserve duty in subsequent years. Members of Israel’s 21 percent Arab population are mostly exempt, though some do serve.

A statement by the military spokesperson confirmed the orders on Sunday just as local media reported legislative efforts by two ultra-Orthodox parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to craft a compromise.

The exemption issue has grown more contentious as Israel’s armed forces in recent years have faced strains from simultaneous engagements with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders in Netanyahu’s brittle coalition have voiced concerns that integrating seminary students into military units alongside secular Israelis, including women, could jeopardize their religious identity.

The military statement promised to ensure conditions that respect the ultra-Orthodox way of life and to develop additional programs to support their integration into the military. It said the notices would go out this month.

The post Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attends an inauguration event for Israel’s new light rail line for the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, in Petah Tikva, Israel, Aug. 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen

Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich sharply criticized on Sunday a cabinet decision to allow some aid into Gaza as a “grave mistake” that he said would benefit the terrorist group Hamas.

Smotrich also accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of failing to ensure that Israel’s military is following government directives in prosecuting the war against Hamas in Gaza. He said he was considering his “next steps” but stopped short of explicitly threatening to quit the coalition.

Smotrich’s comments come a day before Netanyahu is due to hold talks in Washington with President Donald Trump on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day Gaza ceasefire.

“… the cabinet and the Prime Minister made a grave mistake yesterday in approving the entry of aid through a route that also benefits Hamas,” Smotrich said on X, arguing that the aid would ultimately reach the Islamist group and serve as “logistical support for the enemy during wartime”.

The Israeli government has not announced any changes to its aid policy in Gaza. Israeli media reported that the government had voted to allow additional aid to enter northern Gaza.

The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The military declined to comment.

Israel accuses Hamas of stealing aid for its own fighters or to sell to finance its operations, an accusation Hamas denies. Gaza is in the grip of a humanitarian catastrophe, with conditions threatening to push nearly a half a million people into famine within months, according to U.N. estimates.

Israel in May partially lifted a nearly three-month blockade on aid. Two Israeli officials said on June 27 the government had temporarily stopped aid from entering north Gaza.

PRESSURE

Public pressure in Israel is mounting on Netanyahu to secure a permanent ceasefire, a move opposed by some hardline members of his right-wing coalition. An Israeli team left for Qatar on Sunday for talks on a possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

Smotrich, who in January threatened to withdraw his Religious Zionism party from the government if Israel agreed to a complete end to the war before having achieved its objectives, did not mention the ceasefire in his criticism of Netanyahu.

The right-wing coalition holds a slim parliamentary majority, although some opposition lawmakers have offered to support the government from collapsing if a ceasefire is agreed.

The post Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media during a press conference with New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, Aug. 16, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Tracey Nearmy

Australian police have charged a man in connection with an alleged arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue with worshippers in the building, the latest in a series of incidents targeting the nation’s Jewish community.

There were no injuries to the 20 people inside the East Melbourne Synagogue, who fled from the fire on Friday night. Firefighters extinguished the blaze in the capital of Victoria state.

Australia has experienced several antisemitic incidents since the start of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023.

Counter-terrorism detectives late on Saturday arrested the 34-year-old resident of Sydney, capital of neighboring New South Wales, charging him with offenses including criminal damage by fire, police said.

“The man allegedly poured a flammable liquid on the front door of the building and set it on fire before fleeing the scene,” police said in a statement.

The suspect, whom the authorities declined to identify, was remanded in custody after his case was heard at Melbourne Magistrates Court on Sunday and no application was made for bail, the Australian Broadcasting Corp reported.

Authorities are investigating whether the synagogue fire was linked to a disturbance on Friday night at an Israeli restaurant in Melbourne, in which one person was arrested for hindering police.

The restaurant was extensively damaged, according to the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, an umbrella group for Australia’s Jews.

It said the fire at the synagogue, one of Melbourne’s oldest, was set as those inside sat down to Sabbath dinner.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog went on X to “condemn outright the vile arson attack targeting Jews in Melbourne’s historic and oldest synagogue on the Sabbath, and on an Israeli restaurant where people had come to enjoy a meal together”.

“This is not the first such attack in Australia in recent months. But it must be the last,” Herzog said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incidents as “severe hate crimes” that he viewed “with utmost gravity.” “The State of Israel will continue to stand alongside the Australian Jewish community,” Netanyahu said on X.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese late on Saturday described the alleged arson, which comes seven months after another synagogue in Melbourne was targeted by arsonists, as shocking and said those responsible should face the law’s full force.

“My Government will provide all necessary support toward this effort,” Albanese posted on X.

Homes, schools, synagogues and vehicles in Australia have been targeted by antisemitic vandalism and arson. The incidents included a fake plan by organized crime to attack a Sydney synagogue using a caravan of explosives in order to divert police resources, police said in March.

The post Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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