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Phase Two of the Hostage Deal: What Happens Next?
People stand next to flags on the day the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages, Oded Lifschitz, Shiri Bibas, and her two children Kfir and Ariel Bibas, who were kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, are handed over under the terms of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Feb. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
Israel and Hamas are nearing completion of “Phase 1” of the January 19 ceasefire and hostage release deal, and what will happen next remains shrouded in mystery.
An estimated 27 living hostages and an estimated 32 bodies of murdered hostages remain in captivity. Furthermore, the Hamas terror organization remains armed and in control of Gaza, and both Israel and Hamas are expressing opposing demands for which there is no possible compromise. But the world has changed since October 7, 2023, and the way forward may offer an unexpected new option.
The deal with Hamas was designed to occur in three phases: 1. Release of Israeli women, children, and elderly hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian terror convicts held in Israeli prisons, as well as Israeli withdrawal from certain parts of Gaza, 2. Release of all remaining hostages in exchange for permanent and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and 3. Rebuilding Gaza.
In effect, the only way to proceed to Phase 2 is for Israel to allow Hamas to remain in power and to be the beneficiary of massive amounts of international aid, thus almost certainly ensuring another October 7 style attack will lie in Israel’s future. Israel is determined to not permit such an outcome, and Hamas is determined to not settle for anything less.
While the Israeli government has been tight lipped about its plans (perhaps because no decision has yet been reached), one anonymous official leaked the following:
Hamas has three choices.
- Disarm, send its leaders into exile, and give up any civil control over Gaza, thus releasing the hostages and ending the war.
- Continue releasing hostages in the style of Phase 1, and thus extend the ceasefire for now.
- Return to war.
The Israeli official added that if there isn’t an agreement or another release of hostages by March 8, then war will resume.
It is unlikely that Hamas would choose option #1 (exile), which leaves option #2 (ongoing hostage release), option #3 (war), or Hamas’sdemand for total Israeli withdrawal.
Some Israelis suggest that Israel agree to Hamas’ terms as a kind of ruse, and then, once all the hostages are released, to violate the deal and return to war.Yet Hamas is not unsophisticated and will almost certainly maintain leverage over Israel: either by finding an excuse to hold back some hostages indefinitely, or else by some international mechanism that would succeed in tying Israel’s hands.
Others Israelis insist on agreeing to Hamas’ demands and paying “any price” for the return of the hostages, even if that price results in future terror attacks, future hostages, and future bloodshed for even more Israelis. Still others point out, quite correctly, that in 16 months of war, Israel has not fully accomplished any of its goals: as both Hamas remains in power, and Israeli hostages remain in Gaza.
Yet much has changed in recent months, and if Israel were to return to war, it would be prosecuted differently. Israel has been compelled to essentially fund both sides of this war, effectively providing fuel, electricity, and humanitarian supplies to Hamas. Hamas habitually stole these supplies and used them in two ways: 1. to directly support its fighters and fuel its rockets, or else 2. by selling supplies to civilians in order to raise funds for its military activities. This tactic also ensures Hamas’ ongoing popularity among the populace, as the terror group remains the sole source of food and supplies. Furthermore, international pressure greatly limited Israel’s ability to strike when and how it wished, to use certain weapons, or even to relocate Gaza’s civilians out of harm’s way, thus forcing Israel to fight through human shields.
Israel now has far greater support from the United States for aggressive action, including moving civilians out of Gaza. Such an approach would leave Gaza a total military zone, where Israel would have nearly unlimited freedom of action, and there would be no need for humanitarian aid, as there would be no civilian population to receive it. Moving civilians has proven highly effective over the past 16 months despite international doubts. For example, shortly after US Vice President Kamala Harris opposed moving civilians out of Rafah last March, claiming, “I have studied the maps, there’s nowhere for those folks to go,” Israel proved her wrong, moving a million people in just 10 days. Similar movements were accomplished out of Jabalya, Khan Yunis, and Gaza City.
It is also likely that, regardless of the fate of Hamas, Israelis will never be truly safe unless all Palestinians are relocated out of Gaza. Formerly an extreme right wing opinion, this notion is now the mainstream Israeli consensus across the entire political spectrum, with widespread support from almost all Israeli Jews (left, right and center) as well as nearly half of Israeli Arabs.
The impediment to moving Palestinians out of Gaza is therefore not the ability to physically move them, nor Israeli domestic opinion, nor international law which explicitly permits such movements, but rather the refusal of the Arab world to accept Palestinians under any circumstances.
Yet America has significant leverage over Egypt and Jordan, and has recently demonstrated a newfound openness to actually using it. For example: a mostly forgotten bit of history is that the Arab Spring (and the resulting overthrow of Egypt’s government) actually began when Russia stopped providing low cost wheat exports in 2011, thus spiking the price of bread within Egypt, and triggering the famous protests in Tahrir Square. This example demonstrates just how fragile certain middle eastern economies actually are. The United States, which provides billions of dollars of aid to Egypt and Jordan, can trigger similarly crippling economic effects with the stroke of a pen, thus endangering the very existence of entire countries without firing a shot.
Israelis are caught in a paradox: on the one hand wanting all hostages home, and on the other, wanting to fight for a safer reality on Israel’s southern border. The most likely outcome is that Phase 1 will informally continue, with ongoing hostage releases in exchange for ongoing ceasefire, until Hamas decides that the risk of no longer holding hostages is greater than the risk of imminent war. At that point, we will likely see a re-eruption of war in Gaza, but of a vastly different and more effective character than we have seen up until now.
One can only imagine how much bloodshed would have been spared on all sides, and how much more quickly the hostages might have come home, had Israel received the international support it both needed and deserved 16 months ago.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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UK, France, Germany Urge Gaza Ceasefire, Ask Israel to Restore Humanitarian Access
People walk among destroyed buildings in Gaza, as viewed from the Israel-Gaza border, March 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
The governments of Germany, France and Britain called for an immediate return to a ceasefire in Gaza in a joint statement on Friday that also called on Israel to restore humanitarian access.
“We call on Israel to restore humanitarian access, including water and electricity, and ensure access to medical care and temporary medical evacuations in accordance with international humanitarian law,” the foreign ministers of the three countries, known as the E3, said in a statement.
The ministers said they were “appalled by the civilian casualties,” and also called on Palestinian Hamas terrorists to release Israeli hostages.
They said the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians could not be resolved through military means, and that a long-lasting ceasefire was the only credible pathway to peace.
The ministers added that they were “deeply shocked” by the incident that affected the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) building in Gaza, and called for an investigation into the incident.
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Israeli Military Says It Intercepted Missile Fired from Yemen; Houthis Claim Responsibility
FILE PHOTO: Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. Photo: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
The Israeli military said it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen on Friday, one day after shooting down two projectiles launched by Houthi terrorists.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, saying that it fired a ballistic missile toward Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv, the group’s military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said in a televised statement in the early hours of Saturday.
Saree said the attack against Israel was the group’s third in 48 hours.
He issued a warning to airlines that the Israeli airport was “no longer safe for air travel and would continue to be so until the Israeli aggression against Gaza ends and the blockade is lifted.”
However, the airport’s website seemed to be operating normally and showed a list of scheduled flights.
The group’s military spokesman has also said without providing evidence that the Houthis had launched attacks against the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea.
The group recently vowed to escalate attacks, including those targeting Israel, in response to US strikes earlier this month, which amount to the biggest US military operation in the Middle East since President Donald Trump took office in January. The US attacks have killed at least 50 people.
The Houthis’ fresh attacks come under a pledge to expand their range of targets in Israel in retaliation for renewed Israeli strikes in Gaza that have killed hundreds after weeks of relative calm.
The Houthis have carried out over 100 attacks on shipping since Israel’s war with Hamas began in late 2023, saying they were acting in solidarity with Gaza’s Palestinians.
The attacks have disrupted global commerce and prompted the US military to launch a costly campaign to intercept missiles.
The Houthis are part of what has been dubbed the “Axis of Resistance” – an anti-Israel and anti-Western alliance of regional militias including Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and armed groups in Iraq, all backed by Iran.
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Columbia University Agrees to Some Trump Demands in Attempt to Restore Funding
A pro-Palestine protester holds a sign that reads: “Faculty for justice in Palestine” during a protest urging Columbia University to cut ties with Israel. November 15, 2023 in New York City. Photo: Sipa USA via Reuters Connect
Columbia University agreed to some changes demanded by US President Donald Trump’s administration before it can negotiate to regain federal funding that was pulled this month over allegations the school tolerated antisemitism on campus.
The Ivy League university in New York City acquiesced to several demands in a 4,000-word message from its interim president released on Friday. It laid out plans to reform its disciplinary process, hire security officers with arrest powers and appoint a new official with a broad remit to review departments that offer courses on the Middle East.
Columbia’s dramatic concessions to the government’s extraordinary demands, which stem from protests that convulsed the Manhattan campus over the Israel-Gaza war, immediately prompted criticism. The outcome could have broad ramifications as the Trump administration has warned at least 60 other universities of similar action.
What Columbia would do with its Middle Eastern, South Asian, and African Studies department was among the biggest questions facing the university as it confronted the cancellation, called unconstitutional by legal and civil groups, of hundreds of millions of dollars in government grants and contracts. The Trump administration had told the school to place the department under academic receivership for at least five years, taking control away from its faculty.
Academic receivership is a rare step taken by a university’s administrators to fix a dysfunctional department by appointing a professor or administrator outside the department to take over.
Columbia did not refer to receivership in Friday’s message. The university said it would appoint a new senior administrator to review leadership and to ensure programs are balanced at MESAAS, the Middle East Institute, the Center for Palestine Studies, the Institute for Israel and Jewish Studies and other departments with Middle East programs, along with Columbia’s satellite hubs in Tel Aviv and Amman.
‘TERRIBLE PRECEDENT’
Professor Jonathan Zimmerman, a historian of education at the University of Pennsylvania and a “proud” graduate of Columbia, called it a sad day for the university.
“Historically, there is no precedent for this,” Zimmerman said. “The government is using the money as a cudgel to micromanage a university.”
Todd Wolfson, a Rutgers University professor and president of the American Association of University Professors, called the Trump administration’s demands “arguably the greatest incursion into academic freedom, freedom of speech and institutional autonomy that we’ve seen since the McCarthy era.”
“It sets a terrible precedent,” Wolfson said. “I know every academic faculty member in this country is angry about Columbia University’s inability to stand up to a bully.”
In a campus-wide email, Katrina Armstrong, Columbia’s interim president, wrote that the her priorities were “to advance our mission, ensure uninterrupted academic activities, and make every student, faculty, and staff member safe and welcome on our campus.”
Mohammad Hemeida, an undergraduate who chairs Columbia’s Student Governing Board, said the school should have sought more student and faculty input.
“It’s incredibly disappointing Columbia gave in to government pressure instead of standing firm on the commitments to students and to academic freedom, which they emphasized to us in almost daily emails,” he said.
The White House did not respond to Columbia’s memo on Friday. The Trump administration said its demands, laid out in a letter to Armstrong eight days ago, were a precondition before Columbia could enter “formal negotiations” with the government to have federal funding.
ARREST POWERS
Columbia’s response is being watched by other universities that the administration has targeted as it advances its policy objectives in areas ranging from campus protests to transgender sports and diversity initiatives.
Private companies, law firms and other organizations have also faced threatened cuts in government funding and business unless they agree to adhere more closely to Trump’s priorities. Powerful Wall Street law firm Paul Weiss came under heavy criticism on Friday over a deal it struck with the White House to escape an executive order imperiling its business.
Columbia has come under particular scrutiny for the anti-Israel student protest movement that roiled its campus last year, when its lawns filled with tent encampments and noisy rallies against the US government’s support of the Jewish state.
To some of the Trump administration’s demands, such as having “time, place and manner” rules around protests, the school suggested they had already been met.
Columbia said it had already sought to hire peace officers with arrest powers before the Trump administration’s demand last week, saying 36 new officers had nearly completed the lengthy training and certification process under New York law.
The university said no one was allowed to wear face masks on campus if they were doing so intending to break rules or laws. The ban does not apply to face masks worn for medical or religious purposes, and the university did not say it was adopting the Trump administration’s demand that Columbia ID be worn visibly on clothing.
The sudden shutdown of millions of dollars in federal funding to Columbia this month was already disrupting medical and scientific research at the school, researchers said.
Canceled projects included the development of an AI-based tool that helps nurses detect the deterioration of a patient’s health in hospital and research on uterine fibroids, non-cancerous tumors that can cause pain and affect women’s fertility.
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