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‘Regional War,’ ‘Escalation,’ and ‘Stability’ Are All Myths
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaking to members of Iran’s 2024 Olympic and Paralympic delegations. Photo: Screenshot
Last Tuesday night, Iran struck Israel with the largest ballistic missile attack in human history. As the world waits for Israel to respond, international leaders are propagating a number of incorrect myths — that Israel’s response constitutes an “escalation” or even a “preemption”; that Israel will trigger a “regional war”; and that the path to stability is through “restraint” and “de-escalation.”
All three notions are at best naïve, and at worst outright lies.
Here’s what you need to know.
Some “experts” and journalists have suggested that Iran’s attack was merely for show, only against military targets, and a “limited response” that was not intended to escalate hostilities. Yet these bizarre notions do not stand up against the data:
Iran’s barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles was the largest ever launched against anyone, anywhere — in the history of the world. Iran indiscriminately targeted every inch of Israeli territory, making the attack technically a “carpet bombing.”
Each missile carried an average payload roughly equivalent to a 2,000 pound “bunker buster” bomb, for a total payload of approximately 400,000 pounds of explosives, all in under one hour.
The missile defense systems performed admirably, but not perfectly. For example, one missile hit a school in the Israeli town of Gadera, mostly destroying it. Had anyone been inside, they would almost certainly have perished. There were other reports of damage throughout the country.
By tremendous luck, only one person was killed in the barrage (a Palestinian from Gaza taking refuge in the town of Jericho). Had even a greater percentage of the missiles penetrated the defenses, civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure could easily have been catastrophic.
By way of feeble support for Iran, some claim that the Islamic Republic gave advance warning of their attack, which both Iran and the US deny.
Such a warning, in any case, would not have diminished the potential lethality of the attack.
As Israel contemplates a response, US President Joe Biden and the international community nonsensically caution Israel against “escalating” into a “regional war” and during the Vice-Presidential debate last Wednesday, CBS News’ Margaret Brennan bizarrely asked if the candidates would support Israel conducting a “preemptive” strike on Iran.
It should (but sadly does not) go with out saying that any response to the largest ballistic missile attack in history is, exactly that — a response, and not a “preemption.”
Nor can an Israeli response be considered an “escalation” unless Israel somehow carries out a strike even more severe than the largest ballistic missile attack in the history of the world. In reality, Iran has already escalated, the only question is whether Israel’s response will be severe enough to deter against even further Iranian escalation.
Finally, as we’ve explained previously on our website, the admonition against a “regional war” makes no logical sense. In reality, Israel was fighting a regional war immediately after October 8, facing attacks on seven fronts, but the Jewish State has, step by step, reduced the fighting down to what is now essential only a two-party war versus Iran:
Hamas is no longer a strategic military threat, thanks to nearly a year of intense Israeli operations.
In a mere 10 days, Israel reduced Hezbollah from the world’s most powerful non-state militia to a chaotic group unable to take coordinated action, and Israel is further eroding its capabilities by the hour.
After years of devastating civil war, Syria is essentially a non-factor except as a host for Hezbollah and other Iranian militias.
The Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Iranian linked militias in Iraq, are violent but essentially “rag-tag” operations, and not a significant opponent to any modern military.
The Sunni Gulf states stand strongly against Iran and see themselves effectively as siding with Israel and the United States.
Muslims throughout the Middle East, including within Iran and Lebanon itself, have been cheering Israel’s bold steps, and expressing euphoric visions for a better future: free from oppressive Iranian backed regimes .
All of which leaves only Iran and Israel. Given that Iran has already been at war with Israel and the United States through its proxies for decades, this isn’t even a new war, merely an ongoing one. Israel has, in effect, removed many of Iran’s “pieces from the chessboard,” which has made the regime’s danger more visible, but in actuality, less lethal.
President Biden stated that Israel has a right to defend itself, but that the response must be “proportional,” which begs a question: what would be a “proportional” response to the largest ballistic missile attack in the history of the world? As if in response to this glaring omission, Biden added that the Iranian attack was “ineffective,” bizarrely implying that he would like Israel’s response to be ineffective as well.
Biden’s statement calls to mind another “ineffective” attack: Al Qaeda’s unsuccessful attempt to destroy the World Trade Center on February 26, 1993. The United States conducted a limited investigation and arrested some local actors on US soil, but took no action against the actual perpetrators: Al Qaeda and its leader, Osama Bin Laden.
Perceiving America’s “restraint” as a “green light” to attempt further attacks, Bin Laden went on to blow up US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania (killing over 200, including 11 Americans), the American naval ship USS Cole (killing 17 US naval personnel and injuring 39) and finally, on September 11, 2001, attacked the World Trade Center (this time destroying it successfully), the Pentagon, and United Airlines Flight 93 over Pennsylvania, taking the lives of 3,000 innocent people on American soil.
The lesson of history is clear: when America acts with integrity and strength, the world becomes a safer, more stable, and more peaceful place. Yet when America shirks its moral responsibilities in the name of “stability,” the world becomes less stable, less peaceful and less safe.
The principle is playing out again today: the Iranian-backed Houthis operating out of Yemen have shut down Red Sea shipping (thus increasing inflation in the United States and around the world) while also killing an increasing number of US service people. And Iran’s unprecedented missile attack against Israel in April was followed by an even larger one on October 1.
History shows that the only path to stability involves imposing a heavy price on the attacker: including their leadership and also their capacity to strike again.
Based on recent statements, Israel has internalized this lesson, even if others in the international community have not.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post ‘Regional War,’ ‘Escalation,’ and ‘Stability’ Are All Myths first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Lebanon Claims It Is Replacing Hezbollah in the South
Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam speaks at the presidential palace on the day he meets with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, in Baabda, Lebanon, Jan. 14, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
JNS.org – Lebanon’s leadership declared in recent days that the Lebanese Army has begun replacing Hezbollah forces in the country’s southern region.
In an April 15 interview with The New Arab, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that 2025 would be the year of the Lebanese state’s monopoly on arms.
Aoun pledged that only the state would have weapons, referring to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and stressed this goal would be achieved through direct dialogue with Hezbollah, while explicitly ruling out steps that could ignite conflict with Hezbollah.
“I told the Americans that we want to remove Hezbollah’s weapons, but we will not ignite a civil war in Lebanon,” Aoun said, referencing a meeting with US Deputy Envoy Morgan Ortagus.
Aoun added that Hezbollah members could potentially integrate individually into the LAF but rejected replicating the Iraqi model where Shi’ite, Iranian-backed paramilitary groups formed independent units within the military. He asserted the LAF was conducting missions throughout the country “without any obstruction from Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah member Mahmoud Qamat, however, responded by stating, “No one in the world will succeed in laying a hand on this weapon,” according to Lebanese media.
Hezbollah Member of Parliament Ali Fayyad stated the group was open to internal dialogue but warned against pressure on the LAF to disarm Hezbollah.
Col. (res.) Dr. Hanan Shai, a research associate at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy and a former investigator for the IDF’s commission on the 2006 Second Lebanon War, told JNS on Wednesday that statements by Lebanese officials and the activities of the Lebanese army are “unequivocally an achievement for Israel.”
But Shai warned that due “the weakness of the Lebanese army, the IDF cannot rely on it and must back it up with its own parallel defense—mainly through detailed intelligence monitoring and targeted thwarting of any violation not only in Southern Lebanon but also [deep] within it, including at sea and air ports.”
The fragility of the situation was highlighted when a LAF soldier was killed, and three others were wounded while attempting to neutralize suspected Hezbollah ordnance in the Tyre district of Southern Lebanon on April 14.
Hezbollah’s real intentions were also apparent when its supporters reportedly burned billboards celebrating Lebanon’s “new era.”
Most tellingly, the Israel Defense Forces is continuing to detect intelligence of illegal Hezbollah activity in Southern Lebanon, and acting on that intelligence. Overnight between April 15 and 16, the IDF conducted strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in Southern Lebanon.
In one strike near Aitaroun in Southern Lebanon, an IDF aircraft killed Ali Najib Bazzi, identified by the IDF as a squad commander in Hezbollah’s Special Operations unit. Other recent IDF actions included strikes and artillery fire targeting a Hezbollah engineering vehicle near Ayta ash-Shab in Southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, reports emerged suggesting Hezbollah was actively adapting its methods for acquiring weapons. Reports indicated a shift towards sea-based smuggling routes utilizing Beirut Port.
The Saudi Al-Hadath news site reported on April 8 that Iran’s Quds Force created an arms smuggling sea route that bypasses Syria.
Amidst these reports, Aoun visited Beirut Port on April 11, calling for strict government cargo monitoring.
Karmon expresses skepticism
Senior research scholar Ely Karmon of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University in Herzliya stated, “There’s no doubt there’s a change in Lebanon, first of all on the political level— the fact that President Joseph Aoun was elected—supported by the West, the United States, Saudi Arabia.”
In addition, he said, “Hezbollah’s political weight in parliament and in Lebanon in general has dropped significantly after the blow they received from the IDF.”
On the other hand, Karmon expressed deep skepticism about Aoun’s stated path to disarming Hezbollah. Aoun’s statement that he “isn’t interested in coming to military confrontation with Hezbollah,” and that it needs to be a “slow process,” as well as his call for Hezbollah to enter Lebanese army units, should not be taken at face value, according to Karmon.
“I don’t really believe it. First of all, because traditionally, in the Lebanese Army, most of the soldiers were Shi’ites, for a simple demographic reason. And therefore, the integration of thousands of Hezbollah fighters or personnel into the army—certainly at this stage in my opinion—it’s a danger that they’ll take control of the army from within, after they’ve already for years cooperated with the army.”
He added, “We know, for example, that they received weapons from the Lebanese Army—tanks and APCs—when they operated in Syria in 2013, 2010, and they even presented them publicly in Qusayr [in Syria]. On the other hand, we also heard one article from a Hezbollah representative who’s on their political committee, stating, ‘Absolutely not, we will not give up the weapons!’ It is clear there’ll be opposition.”
Karmon said he was skeptical about Lebanese government claims about taking over around 95 out of some 250 Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon. Karmon assessed that Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors would be cautious but that they would continue to try “as usual, to act and to bring in weapons, to prepare some infrastructure in case, for example, there is a crisis in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue.”
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‘Tradition, Tradition!’
An image from “Family at the Seder,” from the 1935 Haggadah by artist Arthur Szyk (b. 1894, Lodz, Poland—d. 1951, New Canaan, CT). Photo: Courtesy of Irvin Ungar
JNS.org – How important is tradition in Judaism? Obviously, the answer is that it is very important. I mean, they even dedicated a major song by that title in “Fiddler on the Roof!”
How strong is the need for tradition in the spiritual consciousness of Jews today? Despite the effects of secularism, I’d venture to suggest that there is still a need inside us to feel connected to our roots, our heritage and our sense of belonging to the Jewish people. Perhaps more than any time of the year, Passover is the season when millions of Jews embrace their traditions with love, warmth and lots of nostalgia.
But for vast numbers of our people, tradition alone has not been enough. And that applies not only to the rebellious among us who may have cast aside their traditions with impunity, but also to many ordinary, thinking people who decided that to do something just because “that’s the way it has always been done” was simply not good enough.
So what if my grandfather did it? My grandfather rode around in a horse and buggy! Must I give up my car for a horse just because my Zaidy rode a horse? And if my Bubbie never got a university degree, why shouldn’t I? Just because my grandparents practiced certain Jewish traditions, why must I? Perhaps those traditions are as obsolete as the horse and buggy?
There are masses of Jews who think this way and who will not be convinced to behave Jewishly just because their grandparents did.
We need to tell them why their grandparents did it. They need to understand that their grandparents’ traditions were not done just for tradition’s sake, but there was a very good reason why their forbears practiced those traditions. And those very same reasons and rationales still hold good today. There is, in fact, no such thing as “empty ritual” in Judaism. Everything has a reason, and a good one, too.
Too many young people were put off by tradition because some cheder or Talmud Torah teacher didn’t take their questions seriously. They were silenced with a wave of the hand, a pinch of the ear, the classic “when you get older, you’ll understand,” or the infamously classic, “just do as you’re told.”
There are answers. There have always been answers. We may not have logical explanations for tsunamis and other tzuris, but all our traditions are founded on substance and have intelligible, credible underpinnings. If we seek answers, we will find them in abundance, including layers and layers of meaning, from the simple to the symbolic to the philosophical and even mystical.
The seventh day of Passover recalls the “Song of the Sea” sung by Moses and the Jewish people following the splitting of the sea and their miraculous deliverance from the Egyptian armies. Early on, we find the verse, “This is my God and I will glorify Him, the God of my fathers, and I will exalt Him.”
The sequence is significant. First comes “my God,” and only thereafter “the God of my fathers.” In the Amidah prayer, the silent devotion, which is the apex of our daily prayers, we begin addressing the “Almighty, as our God and the God of our fathers … Abraham, Isaac and Jacob.” Again, “our God” comes first. So while the God of our fathers, i.e., tradition, most definitely plays a very important role in Judaism, an indispensable prerequisite is that we must make God ours, personally. Every Jew must develop a personal relationship with God. We need to understand the reasons and the significance of our traditions lest they be mistaken for empty ritual to be discarded by the next generation.
Authentic Judaism has never shied away from questions. Questions have always been encouraged and formed a part of our academic heritage. Every page of the Talmud is filled with questions and answers. You don’t have to wait for the Passover seder to ask a question.
When we think, ask and find answers to our faith, the traditions of our grandparents become alive, and we understand fully why we should make them ours. Once a tradition has become ours and we realize that this very same practice has been observed uninterruptedly by our ancestors throughout the generations, then tradition becomes a powerful force that can inspire us forever.
The seders we celebrated at the beginning of Passover are among the most powerful in our faith. They go back to our ancestors in Egypt, where the very first seder was observed. How truly awesome is it that we are still practicing these same traditions more than 3,300 years later!
Our traditions are not empty. They are rich and meaningful and will, please God, be held on to preciously for generations to come.
With acknowledgments to Chabad.org.
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Thousands of Protesters Rally Against Trump Across US
“Protect Migrants, Protect the Planet” rally in New York City, U.S., April 19, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs
Thousands of protesters rallied in Washington and other cities across the US on Saturday to voice their opposition to President Donald Trump’s policies on deportations, government firings, and the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Outside the White House, protesters carried banners that read “Workers should have the power,” “No kingship,” “Stop arming Israel” and “Due process,” media footage showed.
Some demonstrators chanted in support of migrants whom the Trump administration has deported or has been attempting to deport while expressing solidarity with people fired by the federal government and with universities whose funding is threatened by Trump.
“As Trump and his administration mobilize the use of the US deportation machine, we are going to organize networks and systems of resistance to defend our neighbors,” a protester said in a rally at Lafayette Square near the White House.
Other protesters waved Palestinian flags while wearing keffiyeh scarves, chanting “free Palestine” and expressing solidarity with Palestinians killed in Israel’s war in Gaza.
Some demonstrators carried symbols expressing support for Ukraine and urging Washington to be more decisive in opposing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Since his January inauguration, Trump and his billionaire ally, Elon Musk, have gutted the federal government, firing over 200,000 workers and attempting to dismantle various agencies.
The administration has also detained scores of foreign students and threatened to stop federal funding to universities over diversity, equity and inclusion programs, climate initiatives and pro-Palestinian protests. Rights groups have condemned the policies.
Near the Washington Monument, banners from protesters read: “hate never made any nation great” and “equal rights for all does not mean less rights for you.”
Demonstrations were also held in New York City and Chicago, among dozens of other locations. It marked the second day of nationwide demonstrations since Trump took office.
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