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‘Regional War,’ ‘Escalation,’ and ‘Stability’ Are All Myths
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaking to members of Iran’s 2024 Olympic and Paralympic delegations. Photo: Screenshot
Last Tuesday night, Iran struck Israel with the largest ballistic missile attack in human history. As the world waits for Israel to respond, international leaders are propagating a number of incorrect myths — that Israel’s response constitutes an “escalation” or even a “preemption”; that Israel will trigger a “regional war”; and that the path to stability is through “restraint” and “de-escalation.”
All three notions are at best naïve, and at worst outright lies.
Here’s what you need to know.
Some “experts” and journalists have suggested that Iran’s attack was merely for show, only against military targets, and a “limited response” that was not intended to escalate hostilities. Yet these bizarre notions do not stand up against the data:
Iran’s barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles was the largest ever launched against anyone, anywhere — in the history of the world. Iran indiscriminately targeted every inch of Israeli territory, making the attack technically a “carpet bombing.”
Each missile carried an average payload roughly equivalent to a 2,000 pound “bunker buster” bomb, for a total payload of approximately 400,000 pounds of explosives, all in under one hour.
The missile defense systems performed admirably, but not perfectly. For example, one missile hit a school in the Israeli town of Gadera, mostly destroying it. Had anyone been inside, they would almost certainly have perished. There were other reports of damage throughout the country.
By tremendous luck, only one person was killed in the barrage (a Palestinian from Gaza taking refuge in the town of Jericho). Had even a greater percentage of the missiles penetrated the defenses, civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure could easily have been catastrophic.
By way of feeble support for Iran, some claim that the Islamic Republic gave advance warning of their attack, which both Iran and the US deny.
Such a warning, in any case, would not have diminished the potential lethality of the attack.
As Israel contemplates a response, US President Joe Biden and the international community nonsensically caution Israel against “escalating” into a “regional war” and during the Vice-Presidential debate last Wednesday, CBS News’ Margaret Brennan bizarrely asked if the candidates would support Israel conducting a “preemptive” strike on Iran.
It should (but sadly does not) go with out saying that any response to the largest ballistic missile attack in history is, exactly that — a response, and not a “preemption.”
Nor can an Israeli response be considered an “escalation” unless Israel somehow carries out a strike even more severe than the largest ballistic missile attack in the history of the world. In reality, Iran has already escalated, the only question is whether Israel’s response will be severe enough to deter against even further Iranian escalation.
Finally, as we’ve explained previously on our website, the admonition against a “regional war” makes no logical sense. In reality, Israel was fighting a regional war immediately after October 8, facing attacks on seven fronts, but the Jewish State has, step by step, reduced the fighting down to what is now essential only a two-party war versus Iran:
Hamas is no longer a strategic military threat, thanks to nearly a year of intense Israeli operations.
In a mere 10 days, Israel reduced Hezbollah from the world’s most powerful non-state militia to a chaotic group unable to take coordinated action, and Israel is further eroding its capabilities by the hour.
After years of devastating civil war, Syria is essentially a non-factor except as a host for Hezbollah and other Iranian militias.
The Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Iranian linked militias in Iraq, are violent but essentially “rag-tag” operations, and not a significant opponent to any modern military.
The Sunni Gulf states stand strongly against Iran and see themselves effectively as siding with Israel and the United States.
Muslims throughout the Middle East, including within Iran and Lebanon itself, have been cheering Israel’s bold steps, and expressing euphoric visions for a better future: free from oppressive Iranian backed regimes .
All of which leaves only Iran and Israel. Given that Iran has already been at war with Israel and the United States through its proxies for decades, this isn’t even a new war, merely an ongoing one. Israel has, in effect, removed many of Iran’s “pieces from the chessboard,” which has made the regime’s danger more visible, but in actuality, less lethal.
President Biden stated that Israel has a right to defend itself, but that the response must be “proportional,” which begs a question: what would be a “proportional” response to the largest ballistic missile attack in the history of the world? As if in response to this glaring omission, Biden added that the Iranian attack was “ineffective,” bizarrely implying that he would like Israel’s response to be ineffective as well.
Biden’s statement calls to mind another “ineffective” attack: Al Qaeda’s unsuccessful attempt to destroy the World Trade Center on February 26, 1993. The United States conducted a limited investigation and arrested some local actors on US soil, but took no action against the actual perpetrators: Al Qaeda and its leader, Osama Bin Laden.
Perceiving America’s “restraint” as a “green light” to attempt further attacks, Bin Laden went on to blow up US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania (killing over 200, including 11 Americans), the American naval ship USS Cole (killing 17 US naval personnel and injuring 39) and finally, on September 11, 2001, attacked the World Trade Center (this time destroying it successfully), the Pentagon, and United Airlines Flight 93 over Pennsylvania, taking the lives of 3,000 innocent people on American soil.
The lesson of history is clear: when America acts with integrity and strength, the world becomes a safer, more stable, and more peaceful place. Yet when America shirks its moral responsibilities in the name of “stability,” the world becomes less stable, less peaceful and less safe.
The principle is playing out again today: the Iranian-backed Houthis operating out of Yemen have shut down Red Sea shipping (thus increasing inflation in the United States and around the world) while also killing an increasing number of US service people. And Iran’s unprecedented missile attack against Israel in April was followed by an even larger one on October 1.
History shows that the only path to stability involves imposing a heavy price on the attacker: including their leadership and also their capacity to strike again.
Based on recent statements, Israel has internalized this lesson, even if others in the international community have not.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post ‘Regional War,’ ‘Escalation,’ and ‘Stability’ Are All Myths first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Trump Open to Meeting Iran’s Leaders, Sees Chance of Nuclear Deal
US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 23, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
US President Donald Trump this week said he is open to meeting Iran’s supreme leader or president and that he thinks the two countries will strike a new deal on Tehran’s disputed nuclear program.
However, Trump, who in 2018 pulled the US out of a now moribund nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, repeated a threat of military action against Iran unless a new pact is swiftly reached to prevent it developing nuclear weapons.
Trump, in an April 22 interview with Time magazine published on Friday, said “I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran” following indirect US-Iranian talks last week in which the side agreed to draw up a framework for a potential deal.
The Republican US president, speaking separately to reporters at the White House on Friday, reiterated his positive prognosis, saying: “Iran, I think, is going very well. We’ll see what happens.”
A US official said the discussions yielded “very good progress.”
Asked by Time whether he was open to meeting Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, an anti-Western hardliner who has the last say on all major state policies, or President Masoud Pezeshkian, Trump replied: “Sure.”
Expert-level talks are set to resume on Saturday in Oman, which has acted as intermediary between the longtime adversaries, with a third round of high-level nuclear discussions planned for the same day.
Israel, a close US ally and Iran’s major Middle East foe, has described the Islamic Republic’s escalating uranium enrichment program – a potential pathway to nuclear bombs – as an “existential threat.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, saying partial measures will not suffice to ensure Israel’s security.
Asked in the interview if he was concerned Netanyahu might drag the United States into a war with Iran, Trump said: “No.”
‘I’LL BE LEADING THE PACK’
However, when asked if the US would join a war against Iran should Israel take action, he responded: “I may go in very willingly if we can’t get a deal. If we don’t make a deal, I’ll be leading the pack.”
In March, Iran responded to a letter from Trump in which he urged it to negotiate a new deal by stating it would not engage in direct talks under maximum pressure and military threats but was open to indirect negotiations, as in the past.
Although the current talks have been indirect and mediated by Oman, US and Iranian officials did speak face-to-face briefly following the first round on April 12.
The last known face-to-face negotiations between the two countries took place under former US President Barack Obama during diplomacy that led to the 2015 nuclear accord.
Western powers accuse Iran of harboring a clandestine agenda to develop nuclear weapons capability by enriching uranium to a high level of fissile purity, above what they say is justifiable for a civilian atomic energy program.
Tehran says its nuclear program is wholly peaceful. The 2015 deal temporarily curbed its uranium enrichment activity in exchange for relief from international sanctions, but Iran resumed and accelerated enrichment after the Trump walkout in 2018.
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Trump Poised to Offer Saudi Arabia Over $100 Billion Arms Package, Sources Say
US President Donald speaking in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, DC on March 3, 2025. Photo: Leah Millis via Reuters Connect
The United States is poised to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package worth well over $100 billion, six sources with direct knowledge of the issue told Reuters, saying the proposal was being lined up for announcement during US President Donald Trump‘s visit to the kingdom in May.
The offered package comes after the administration of former President Joe Biden unsuccessfully tried to finalize a defense pact with Riyadh as part of a broad deal that envisioned Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel.
The Biden proposal offered access to more advanced US weaponry in return for halting Chinese arms purchases and restricting Beijing’s investment in the country. Reuters could not establish if the Trump administration’s proposal includes similar requirements.
The White House and Saudi government communications office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
A US Defense official said: “Our defense relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is stronger than ever under President Trump‘s leadership. Maintaining our security cooperation remains an important component of this partnership and we will continue to work with Saudi Arabia to address their defense needs.”
In his first term, Trump celebrated weapons sales to Saudi Arabia as good for US jobs.
Lockheed Martin Corp could supply a range of advanced weapons systems including C-130 transport aircraft, two of the sources said. One source said Lockheed would also supply missiles and radars.
RTX Corp, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies, is also expected to play a significant role in the package, which will include supplies from other major US defense contractors such as Boeing Co, Northrop Grumman Corp and General Atomics, said four of the sources.
All the sources declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
RTX, Northrop and General Atomics declined to comment. Boeing did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A Lockheed Martin spokesperson said foreign military sales are government-to-government transactions. Questions about sales to foreign governments are best addressed by the US government.
Reuters could not immediately establish how many of the deals on offer were new. Many have been in the works for some time, two of the sources said. For example, the kingdom first requested information about General Atomics’ drones in 2018, they said. Over the past 12 months, a deal for $20 billion of General Atomics’ MQ-9B SeaGuardian-style drones and other aircraft came into focus, according to one of the sources.
Several executives from defense companies are considering traveling to the region as a part of the delegation, three of the sources said.
The US has long supplied Saudi Arabia with weapons. In 2017, Trump proposed approximately $110 billion of sales to the kingdom.
As of 2018, only $14.5 billion of sales had been initiated and Congress began to question the deals in light of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
In 2021, under Biden, Congress imposed a ban on sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi killing and to pressure the kingdom to wind down its Yemen war, which had inflicted heavy civilian casualties.
Under US law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are finalized.
The Biden administration began to soften its stance on Saudi Arabia in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacted global oil supplies. The ban on offensive weapons sales was lifted in 2024, as Washington worked more closely with Riyadh in the aftermath of Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack to devise a plan for post-war Gaza.
A potential deal for Lockheed’s F-35 jets, which the kingdom has been reportedly interested in for years, is expected to be discussed, three of the sources said, while downplaying the chances for an F-35 deal being signed during the trip.
The United States guarantees that its close ally Israel receives more advanced American weapons than Arab states, giving it what is labeled a “Qualitative Military Edge” (QME) over its neighbors.
Israel has now owned F-35s for nine years, building multiple squadrons.
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Iran Summons Dutch Envoy to Protest Assassination Attempts Claim
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi looks on before a meeting with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, in Tehran, Iran, Aug. 26, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
The Iranian foreign ministry summoned the Dutch ambassador to Tehran on Friday, the official IRNA news agency reported, a day after the Netherlands called in Iran‘s envoy over suspicions that Iran was behind two assassination attempts.
An Iranian foreign ministry official described the Dutch accusation as “laughable” and based on “suspicions or assumptions,” according to IRNA.
“It is regrettable that the Dutch diplomatic apparatus acts so easily on speculations injected by its security bodies and the Zionist regime [Israel], and even summons the Iranian ambassador over such an absurd fabrication,” the official, Alireza Yousefi, was quoted as saying.
The Netherlands summoned Iran‘s ambassador after the Dutch intelligence agency, known as the AIVD, said in its annual report published on Thursday that it was likely Iran was behind two assassination attempts in the Netherlands and Spain.
Two men were arrested in June 2024 in the Dutch town of Haarlem after an assassination attempt on an Iranian residing in the country, the report said.
One of the suspects was also believed to have been behind the failed assassination attempt on Spanish politician and Iran critic Alejo Vidal-Quadras in Madrid in November 2023, it said.
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