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‘Regional War,’ ‘Escalation,’ and ‘Stability’ Are All Myths
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaking to members of Iran’s 2024 Olympic and Paralympic delegations. Photo: Screenshot
Last Tuesday night, Iran struck Israel with the largest ballistic missile attack in human history. As the world waits for Israel to respond, international leaders are propagating a number of incorrect myths — that Israel’s response constitutes an “escalation” or even a “preemption”; that Israel will trigger a “regional war”; and that the path to stability is through “restraint” and “de-escalation.”
All three notions are at best naïve, and at worst outright lies.
Here’s what you need to know.
Some “experts” and journalists have suggested that Iran’s attack was merely for show, only against military targets, and a “limited response” that was not intended to escalate hostilities. Yet these bizarre notions do not stand up against the data:
Iran’s barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles was the largest ever launched against anyone, anywhere — in the history of the world. Iran indiscriminately targeted every inch of Israeli territory, making the attack technically a “carpet bombing.”
Each missile carried an average payload roughly equivalent to a 2,000 pound “bunker buster” bomb, for a total payload of approximately 400,000 pounds of explosives, all in under one hour.
The missile defense systems performed admirably, but not perfectly. For example, one missile hit a school in the Israeli town of Gadera, mostly destroying it. Had anyone been inside, they would almost certainly have perished. There were other reports of damage throughout the country.
By tremendous luck, only one person was killed in the barrage (a Palestinian from Gaza taking refuge in the town of Jericho). Had even a greater percentage of the missiles penetrated the defenses, civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure could easily have been catastrophic.
By way of feeble support for Iran, some claim that the Islamic Republic gave advance warning of their attack, which both Iran and the US deny.
Such a warning, in any case, would not have diminished the potential lethality of the attack.
As Israel contemplates a response, US President Joe Biden and the international community nonsensically caution Israel against “escalating” into a “regional war” and during the Vice-Presidential debate last Wednesday, CBS News’ Margaret Brennan bizarrely asked if the candidates would support Israel conducting a “preemptive” strike on Iran.
It should (but sadly does not) go with out saying that any response to the largest ballistic missile attack in history is, exactly that — a response, and not a “preemption.”
Nor can an Israeli response be considered an “escalation” unless Israel somehow carries out a strike even more severe than the largest ballistic missile attack in the history of the world. In reality, Iran has already escalated, the only question is whether Israel’s response will be severe enough to deter against even further Iranian escalation.
Finally, as we’ve explained previously on our website, the admonition against a “regional war” makes no logical sense. In reality, Israel was fighting a regional war immediately after October 8, facing attacks on seven fronts, but the Jewish State has, step by step, reduced the fighting down to what is now essential only a two-party war versus Iran:
Hamas is no longer a strategic military threat, thanks to nearly a year of intense Israeli operations.
In a mere 10 days, Israel reduced Hezbollah from the world’s most powerful non-state militia to a chaotic group unable to take coordinated action, and Israel is further eroding its capabilities by the hour.
After years of devastating civil war, Syria is essentially a non-factor except as a host for Hezbollah and other Iranian militias.
The Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Iranian linked militias in Iraq, are violent but essentially “rag-tag” operations, and not a significant opponent to any modern military.
The Sunni Gulf states stand strongly against Iran and see themselves effectively as siding with Israel and the United States.
Muslims throughout the Middle East, including within Iran and Lebanon itself, have been cheering Israel’s bold steps, and expressing euphoric visions for a better future: free from oppressive Iranian backed regimes .
All of which leaves only Iran and Israel. Given that Iran has already been at war with Israel and the United States through its proxies for decades, this isn’t even a new war, merely an ongoing one. Israel has, in effect, removed many of Iran’s “pieces from the chessboard,” which has made the regime’s danger more visible, but in actuality, less lethal.
President Biden stated that Israel has a right to defend itself, but that the response must be “proportional,” which begs a question: what would be a “proportional” response to the largest ballistic missile attack in the history of the world? As if in response to this glaring omission, Biden added that the Iranian attack was “ineffective,” bizarrely implying that he would like Israel’s response to be ineffective as well.
Biden’s statement calls to mind another “ineffective” attack: Al Qaeda’s unsuccessful attempt to destroy the World Trade Center on February 26, 1993. The United States conducted a limited investigation and arrested some local actors on US soil, but took no action against the actual perpetrators: Al Qaeda and its leader, Osama Bin Laden.
Perceiving America’s “restraint” as a “green light” to attempt further attacks, Bin Laden went on to blow up US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania (killing over 200, including 11 Americans), the American naval ship USS Cole (killing 17 US naval personnel and injuring 39) and finally, on September 11, 2001, attacked the World Trade Center (this time destroying it successfully), the Pentagon, and United Airlines Flight 93 over Pennsylvania, taking the lives of 3,000 innocent people on American soil.
The lesson of history is clear: when America acts with integrity and strength, the world becomes a safer, more stable, and more peaceful place. Yet when America shirks its moral responsibilities in the name of “stability,” the world becomes less stable, less peaceful and less safe.
The principle is playing out again today: the Iranian-backed Houthis operating out of Yemen have shut down Red Sea shipping (thus increasing inflation in the United States and around the world) while also killing an increasing number of US service people. And Iran’s unprecedented missile attack against Israel in April was followed by an even larger one on October 1.
History shows that the only path to stability involves imposing a heavy price on the attacker: including their leadership and also their capacity to strike again.
Based on recent statements, Israel has internalized this lesson, even if others in the international community have not.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post ‘Regional War,’ ‘Escalation,’ and ‘Stability’ Are All Myths first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students
Haredi Jewish men look at the scene of an explosion at a bus stop in Jerusalem, Israel, on Nov. 23, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Ammar Awad
Israel’s military said it would issue 54,000 call-up notices to ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students following a Supreme Court ruling mandating their conscription and amid growing pressure from reservists stretched by extended deployments.
The Supreme Court ruling last year overturned a decades-old exemption for ultra-Orthodox students, a policy established when the community comprised a far smaller segment of the population than the 13 percent it represents today.
Military service is compulsory for most Israeli Jews from the age of 18, lasting 24-32 months, with additional reserve duty in subsequent years. Members of Israel’s 21 percent Arab population are mostly exempt, though some do serve.
A statement by the military spokesperson confirmed the orders on Sunday just as local media reported legislative efforts by two ultra-Orthodox parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to craft a compromise.
The exemption issue has grown more contentious as Israel’s armed forces in recent years have faced strains from simultaneous engagements with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.
Ultra-Orthodox leaders in Netanyahu’s brittle coalition have voiced concerns that integrating seminary students into military units alongside secular Israelis, including women, could jeopardize their religious identity.
The military statement promised to ensure conditions that respect the ultra-Orthodox way of life and to develop additional programs to support their integration into the military. It said the notices would go out this month.
The post Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attends an inauguration event for Israel’s new light rail line for the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, in Petah Tikva, Israel, Aug. 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich sharply criticized on Sunday a cabinet decision to allow some aid into Gaza as a “grave mistake” that he said would benefit the terrorist group Hamas.
Smotrich also accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of failing to ensure that Israel’s military is following government directives in prosecuting the war against Hamas in Gaza. He said he was considering his “next steps” but stopped short of explicitly threatening to quit the coalition.
Smotrich’s comments come a day before Netanyahu is due to hold talks in Washington with President Donald Trump on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day Gaza ceasefire.
“… the cabinet and the Prime Minister made a grave mistake yesterday in approving the entry of aid through a route that also benefits Hamas,” Smotrich said on X, arguing that the aid would ultimately reach the Islamist group and serve as “logistical support for the enemy during wartime”.
The Israeli government has not announced any changes to its aid policy in Gaza. Israeli media reported that the government had voted to allow additional aid to enter northern Gaza.
The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The military declined to comment.
Israel accuses Hamas of stealing aid for its own fighters or to sell to finance its operations, an accusation Hamas denies. Gaza is in the grip of a humanitarian catastrophe, with conditions threatening to push nearly a half a million people into famine within months, according to U.N. estimates.
Israel in May partially lifted a nearly three-month blockade on aid. Two Israeli officials said on June 27 the government had temporarily stopped aid from entering north Gaza.
PRESSURE
Public pressure in Israel is mounting on Netanyahu to secure a permanent ceasefire, a move opposed by some hardline members of his right-wing coalition. An Israeli team left for Qatar on Sunday for talks on a possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.
Smotrich, who in January threatened to withdraw his Religious Zionism party from the government if Israel agreed to a complete end to the war before having achieved its objectives, did not mention the ceasefire in his criticism of Netanyahu.
The right-wing coalition holds a slim parliamentary majority, although some opposition lawmakers have offered to support the government from collapsing if a ceasefire is agreed.
The post Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media during a press conference with New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, Aug. 16, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Tracey Nearmy
Australian police have charged a man in connection with an alleged arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue with worshippers in the building, the latest in a series of incidents targeting the nation’s Jewish community.
There were no injuries to the 20 people inside the East Melbourne Synagogue, who fled from the fire on Friday night. Firefighters extinguished the blaze in the capital of Victoria state.
Australia has experienced several antisemitic incidents since the start of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023.
Counter-terrorism detectives late on Saturday arrested the 34-year-old resident of Sydney, capital of neighboring New South Wales, charging him with offenses including criminal damage by fire, police said.
“The man allegedly poured a flammable liquid on the front door of the building and set it on fire before fleeing the scene,” police said in a statement.
The suspect, whom the authorities declined to identify, was remanded in custody after his case was heard at Melbourne Magistrates Court on Sunday and no application was made for bail, the Australian Broadcasting Corp reported.
Authorities are investigating whether the synagogue fire was linked to a disturbance on Friday night at an Israeli restaurant in Melbourne, in which one person was arrested for hindering police.
The restaurant was extensively damaged, according to the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, an umbrella group for Australia’s Jews.
It said the fire at the synagogue, one of Melbourne’s oldest, was set as those inside sat down to Sabbath dinner.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog went on X to “condemn outright the vile arson attack targeting Jews in Melbourne’s historic and oldest synagogue on the Sabbath, and on an Israeli restaurant where people had come to enjoy a meal together”.
“This is not the first such attack in Australia in recent months. But it must be the last,” Herzog said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incidents as “severe hate crimes” that he viewed “with utmost gravity.” “The State of Israel will continue to stand alongside the Australian Jewish community,” Netanyahu said on X.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese late on Saturday described the alleged arson, which comes seven months after another synagogue in Melbourne was targeted by arsonists, as shocking and said those responsible should face the law’s full force.
“My Government will provide all necessary support toward this effort,” Albanese posted on X.
Homes, schools, synagogues and vehicles in Australia have been targeted by antisemitic vandalism and arson. The incidents included a fake plan by organized crime to attack a Sydney synagogue using a caravan of explosives in order to divert police resources, police said in March.
The post Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue first appeared on Algemeiner.com.