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Retribution in Syria: What It Means for Israel and the Region
Syria’s newly appointed president for a transitional phase Ahmed al-Sharaa meets Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salam, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Feb. 2, 2025. Photo: Bandar Algaloud Saudi Royal Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS
The carnage in Syria is terrifying, horrifying, and gruesome — particularly if you are a member of a Syrian minority group — Christians, Druze, Kurds. Or Alawite.
Did no one think there would be retribution after the ouster of the brutal Alawite Assad regime?
When Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) commandeered Damascus in December, no one seemed very upset. After all, Bashar al-Assad had been responsible for more than 500,000 deaths during the Syrian civil war — including from starvation and chemical attack — plus creating 6 million refugees inside the country and another 5 million outside and wrecking the country from top to bottom.
But HTS has been sitting in Damascus — and Assad had tens of thousands of soldiers in historic Alawite territory around Latakia, where fighting recently broke out.
Some of those ousted soldiers appear to have attacked government forces, and they are paying for it. So are the other minority groups that Assad allowed to live in relative peace for a while with Iranian protection because they, like he, feared the majority, Sunnis.
And, as always, civilians are the victims, because once the forces of retribution are unleashed, they are hard to control — particularly as HTS is not the only armed terror group in the country.
HTS is Sunni, ISIS-adjacent, Al Qaeda-adjacent, and armed by and aligned with Recip Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly Islamist Turkey.
HTS evolved from Jabhat al-Nusrah, or “Nusrah Front,” Al-Qaeda’s former branch in Syria, which was designated a terror organization by the US in 2012, None of that appeared terribly important in the West.
HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (aka Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) is an international jihadist. He broke with Ayman al-Zawahiri — the leader of Al-Qaeda — in 2016, and HTS received its own terror designation from the US in 2018. He has no loyalty, moving from an alliance with Al-Qaeda in Iraq to the Islamic State in Iraq, to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria, to Al-Qaeda in Syria, to his own brand.
Al-Sharaa talked a fairly moderate game, but his alliance with Turkey should have been a tip-off. Turkey has been waging an ugly war against Kurds in the north of Syria — bombing towns and cities, and at one point cutting off water to a million people.
The history should have made you think that al-Sharaa was not going to be a peaceful neighbor to anyone. Anywhere.
Israel wasn’t taking chances.
Immediately, the IDF struck Syrian chemical weapons depots and “research facilities.” It struck the ports of Al-Bayda and Latakia, taking out dozens of sea-to-sea missiles with ranges of 80–190 km, each with significant explosive payloads. The Israeli Air Force targeted anti-aircraft batteries, airfields, and dozens of weapons production sites, neutralizing Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, plus UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, hangars, and more. And the IDF conducted strikes on 130 ground assets in Syria, including weapons depots, military structures, launchers, and firing positions.
The IDF estimated it had eliminated 80 percent of the Assad arsenal. Voices were raised in the UN, the EU, and in the Middle East over Israel’s declaration that it would continue to hold slivers of the Syrian Golan. Syria’s Druze and Kurdish communities, however, asked for Israel’s protection, and at least one southern village asked to be annexed to Israel.
Still in December, the Biden administration started a conversation with HTS leadership in Damascus. Turkey promoted its ties with HTS and with al-Sharaa. As recently as last week, parts of the Washington “policy wonk” community were promoting an “alliance” between Turkey and Israel, led by the US, to cement a “moderate” Syria and pave the way for reconstruction funds to flow.
Try again.
Now, with the death toll mounting — and gory and heartrending videos from Syria flooding the Internet — al-Sharaa declared it necessary to “preserve national unity and domestic peace; we can live together.”
And where is the US? President Donald Trump, in his first term, directly punished the Assad regime for a chemical attack, and CENTCOM has been active in striking ISIS positions in Syria in his second. There appears to be no decision on whether to withdraw the roughly 2,200 American troops remaining in northern Syria.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, appears to be giving al-Sharaa a bit of wiggle room. “The United States condemns the radical Islamist terrorists, including foreign jihadis, that murdered people in western Syria in recent days … Syria’s interim authorities must hold the perpetrators of these massacres against Syria’s minority communities accountable.”
Good idea, but al-Sharaa and HTS are themselves radical Islamists. It is unclear that he can or wants to kill his Sunni allies on behalf of the Alawites, who decimated Syria’s Sunni population.
Retribution is a nasty game.
Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly magazine.
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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