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Russia’s Deal With Iran and Middle East Peace
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Russian Security Council’s Secretary Sergei Shoigu in Tehran, Iran, Aug. 5, 2024. Photo: Iran’s Presidency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
According to Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Russia is close to signing a comprehensive treaty with Iran that will include defense cooperation. At the moment, there is no text of the agreement nor any detailed description of its actual contents.
Yet hidden behind the Russia-Iran deal is a bid by Russia to become the “peace broker” in the Middle East.
This would enhance Russia regionally and beyond, and would diminish the American position considerably. It is part and parcel of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal of attaining international credibility and acceptance two years after the start of Russia’s so-called “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine.
For decades, Russia has been trying to gain influence in Iran, including seeking bases in that country. While Iran has been willing to buy Russian military equipment, or to barter for it — and willing to sell drones and missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine — it has been unwilling to grant any bases. Iran appears to be sticking to that policy now, as there is no hint that Russia will get a military presence on Iranian territory.
Nor is there any suggestion that Russia would come to Iran’s aid if there was an attack on Iranian territory, provoked or unprovoked. In short, Russia is under no obligation to help Iran in case of war.
So, what is Russia hoping to achieve?
While Moscow surely wants to expand its influence in Iran, it also has important relations in the Persian Gulf that it not only wants to protect, but also expand. Major oil producers the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are on this list.
The mechanism the Russians — and Chinese — are using to build relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE is BRICS (an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and — later — South Africa), a group formed in 2001 of then-emerging economies.
Described as an “informal relationship,” it is focused mainly on economic and financial issues. Seeing an opportunity for expanded political as well as economic influence, in December 2023, the BRICS members invited a number of countries to join. Argentina declined after Javier Milei was elected president. Iran, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Egypt accepted — the last three being long-time US allies and commercial and military partners. Saudi Arabia was invited, but “delayed” a response. Under apparent pressure by the United States, the Saudis have neither confirmed nor denied their intentions.
For the recent BRICS meeting in Kazan, Russia, 38 countries were invited and 32 participated. A surprise participant was UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, which was seen as controversial, since the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, who hosted the meeting. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister attended as an “observer.”
BRICS is moving toward establishing an alternative banking and currency system to the US-led currency system, known as Bretton Woods, which includes the SWIFT financial transaction processing system. In 2022, as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and EU imposed sanctions on a number of Russian banks, which were removed from the SWIFT system.
Meanwhile Turkey, a NATO member, has asked to join BRICS, and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attended the summit. Turkey has been furious with Europe, as the EU has consistently blocked Turkey from EU membership, based on human rights violations, rule of law, and other complaints. As Ankara increasingly turned eastward, Russia sold Turkey sensitive military equipment including the S-400 air defense system, and would like to sell more in future, especially fifth generation jet fighters.
With regard to Iran, the Russian strategy is to try and bring Iran into a “normal” relationship with the BRICS partners, while preserving and expanding Russian ties to traditional US friends in the Middle East and Europe. From Russia’s point of view, the BRICS partnership also offsets and undermines European and American sanctions leveled on Russia since the start of the Ukraine war.
But Russia may have other ambitions, hinted at by Putin himself.
Russia is quietly working at positioning itself as a “peace broker” between Iran and Israel. Despite its support for Iran and its presence in Syria, the Russians have consistently honored a deconfliction arrangement with Israel. This has meant Israel has had a free hand to knock out Syrian, Hezbollah, and Iranian assets in Syria without a Russian military response. Russia now wants to capitalize on its positive relations with both Israel and Iran, and Putin is quietly trying to push the Iranians to secretly seek some accommodation with Israel.
It may seem odd, as Russia has been an outspoken critic of Israel since 10/7 and never has been helpful in the UN or other institutions, but Russian policy is not about Israel or Iran, it is about Russia. And Putin. Netanyahu met with Putin and Zelensky in hopes of mediating the Ukraine war; Prime Minister Bennett did as well, making a surprise visit to Moscow during his short tenure. Even now, reports indicate that Israel seeks Russian participation in the Israel-Lebanon negotiations as a means of ensuring Iranian cooperation.
If Putin is successful, the Middle East and the world more broadly, would look considerably different — to the detriment of American interests, influence, and alliances.
Stephen D. Bryen is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly.
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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