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The Fall of Assad: A Tectonic Shift in the Middle East
A person gestures next to a burning picture of President Bashar al-Assad, after rebels seized the capital and ousted the president, in Qamishli, Syria, Dec. 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, with experts suggesting it has dismantled Iran’s “ring of fire” strategy and created both opportunities and challenges for Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time in hailing the moment as a “historic” victory for Israeli strategy and security, calling it “a pivotal step toward regional stability and peace.”
“The Assad regime is a central link in Iran’s axis of evil — this regime has fallen,” he said on Sunday.
Speaking during a visit to Mount Bental on Israel’s border with Syria, Netanyahu described the regime’s downfall as the culmination of years of coordinated efforts to counter Iranian influence in Syria. “This is a strategic achievement for Israel, the fruit of our resolute actions against Iran’s entrenchment in the region.”
A Fragmented Syria
The vacuum left by Assad’s downfall has fragmented Syria into competing zones of control. Dina Lisnyansky, an expert in political Islam and terrorism, explained the current dynamics and said there was reason for “cautious optimism.”
“We’re seeing three main factions taking hold: Druze forces in the south, Kurds in the northeast, and Salafi Islamists elsewhere, including parts of Damascus,” she told The Algemeiner.
According to Lisnyansky, this mosaic of power offers Israel a rare diplomatic opening. “This could be an opportunity for Israel to establish relations with individual factions or a new Syrian government.”
However, she cautioned against unbridled optimism against the Salafis, represented by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group which led the raid on the Syrian capital of Damascus on Sunday. “The Salafi Islamists remain a branch of al-Qaeda, despite their leader [Abu Mohammed] al-Golani’s rhetoric about good relations with Syria’s neighbors — Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel,” she said. “It’s no coincidence that they received congratulations today from the Taliban, who enthusiastically backed their achievements and the overthrow of Assad.”
Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli similarly cautioned Israelis against premature celebrations.
“These are jihadists and Islamists who have done some of the worst things, of the ilk of ISIS and al-Qaeda,” he said, warning that Syria could “look like Afghanistan in no time.”
But, he said, the silver lining was the Kurdish control in the northeast region.
Lisnyansky warned that Turkey’s role in facilitating the overthrow adds another layer of complexity for Israel. Turkey’s growing influence in Syria even carries a potential risk of invasion, Lisnyansky said, referencing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s threats earlier this year that if Turkey shared a border with Israel, he would have already demonstrated his country’s capabilities, implying retaliation over Israel’s war in Gaza.
“Turkey is, without a doubt, hostile to Israel today. While we very much hope to improve relations with Turkey on one hand, we’re not under any illusions, This means they could currently place forces on our border that might even invade our territory,” she warned.
“We need to proceed with very cautious optimism and understand that what’s happening in the region is still extremely unclear,” she concluded.
Iran’s Setback
The Assad regime’s collapse has struck a significant blow to Iran’s regional ambitions. Assad’s government was a crucial link in Tehran’s efforts to arm and fund terrorist proxies from Lebanon to Gaza, forming a so-called “ring of fire” around Israel. With Damascus now fractured and Iranian proxies weakened, the Islamic Republic’s influence in Syria has been severely undermined.
Issam Zeitoun, a former Syrian opposition figure and founder of the Syrian Peace Initiative, highlighted the importance of regional efforts in this shift. “There is an obvious international and regional decision to keep Iran out,” he said. He credited Israel with playing a central role in curbing Iran’s influence, emphasizing the broader international agreement driving these developments.
Zeitoun also highlighted the humanitarian consequences of the regime’s fall, emphasizing the urgent need to support civilians in southern Syria. “We need to take care of them,” he said.
Zeitoun, speaking to The Algemeiner en route to Israel from Germany — where he fled following the Assad regime’s crackdown — outlined his plans to arrive in Jerusalem to discuss the renewal of the Good Neighbor project, which provided essential supplies and humanitarian aid, including medical treatment, to thousands of Syrians in border communities during the height of the civil war.
During his remarks at Mount Bental, Netanyahu also addressed the program, announcing Israel’s intent to resume it and highlighting its impact, noting that “hundreds of Syrian children were born here in Israel.” At the same time, he reaffirmed Israel’s policy of avoiding direct involvement in Syria’s internal conflicts.
Zeitoun expressed hope for a new era, emphasizing the potential of the Abraham Accords in reshaping regional alliances, and adding that they could potentially include Syria’s new leadership, depending on its trajectory. “We would love to join the Abraham Accords,” he said, referring to a series of US-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several countries in the Arab world in 2020.
“Everyone is happy. I’m getting calls from everywhere with congratulations. It’s been a very, very bad half-century for Syria,” he said.
“If something happens that we don’t like, we can change it,” he added, expressing confidence that Syrians have learned from the past and will not allow another dictator to take power.
Focus on Israel’s Security
While Netanyahu struck a celebratory tone, he also stressed the importance of vigilance. He gave the order for the Israel Defense Forces to be deployed in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, he said, marking the first time since the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 that Israeli forces have been present in the area for more than a few hours. Israeli forces on Sunday also captured the Syrian side of Mount Hermon.
“We are acting first and foremost to protect our border,” he said. “This area has been controlled for nearly 50 years by a buffer zone agreed upon in 1974, the Separation of Forces Agreement. This agreement has collapsed; the Syrian soldiers have abandoned their positions.”
Nir Boms, chairman of the Syria Research Forum, also struck a cautiously optimistic note, pointing to the potential for renewed cooperation with moderate Syrian groups.
“We’ve seen success in working with opposition figures in the past, particularly in the south. Whether such collaboration can be replicated in this new Syria remains uncertain, but the opportunities are there,” he told The Algemeiner.
“This war is not over yet, but for those who follow the war in Syria and those who see Assad’s downfall as a victory, it is at least a small reason to raise a toast,” he said.
Minorities in the Post-Assad Era
Israeli Maj. Shadi Khalloul (res), an expert on the region and Aramaic Christian activist, emphasized the importance of securing the areas captured by Israel over the weekend. “We will take what we need according to our security needs until there is a safe and different reality,” he told The Algemeiner.
Khalloul reflected on the broader implications for Christians in the region, highlighting their historical suffering under Assad’s regime, which he described as a “vicious enemy” to Israel and to Lebanon’s Aramaic and Maronite communities. Now, with Assad’s fall, communities across Lebanon — including Sunnis, Christians, and Druze — are celebrating, he said.
He noted the significance of Israel’s role in shaping this outcome: “Lebanon and Syria should thank Israel for liberating them, because without Israel this would not have happened today,” he told i24News.
But like the others, Khalloul warned of the risks tied to Syria’s uncertain future, pointing to the potential for instability if secular and Islamist factions fail to reach a power-sharing agreement.
“If these two sections find a deal to divide the power in Syria and rule Syria together, then we will have stability. But if not, we might see a civil war develop between these sides,” he said.
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ADL Research: 24% of Americans Believe Recent Violence Against Jews Is ‘Understandable’
Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim who were shot and killed as they left an event at the Capital Jewish Museum, pose for a picture at an unknown location, in this handout image released by Embassy of Israel to the US on May 22, 2025. Photo: Embassy of Israel to the USA via X/Handout via REUTERS
The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) released a report on Friday revealing American attitudes about antisemitic violence following the targeted attacks earlier this year against Jews in Boulder, Colo., Harrisburg, Pa., and Washington, D.C. The watchdog group found a sizable minority (24 percent) found the attacks “understandable” while 13 percent regarded them as “justified.”
The ADL surveyed a representative sample of 1000 Americans on Thursday, ensuring the group matched accurate proportions of the country’s demography. The findings showed disparate views across age groups and partisan affiliations while also a clear, majority consensus on many questions.
The survey showed that 87 percent of respondents believed the three recent antisemitic attacks to be unjustifiable while 85 percent called them morally wrong and 77 percent assessed them as antisemitic. Eighty-six percent regarded the violence against Jews as hate crimes. However, nearly a quarter of respondents said the attacks were “understandable.”
More Republicans (15 percent) than Democrats (11 percent) regarded the attacks as justified, while more Republicans (79 percent) than Democrats (77 percent) saw the attacks as antisemitic. Partisan differences also manifested in support for increased government action against antisemitism with 74 percent of Republicans in favor compared to 81 percent of Democrats.
In presenting their research findings, the ADL emphasized the broad agreement in American opposition to antisemitic violence and conspiracist tropes before noting the presence of a distinct minority of “millions of people who excuse or endorse violence against Jews—an alarming sign of how anti-Jewish narratives are spreading.” For example, 67 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of Republicans agree that antisemitism is a serious problem.
Smaller numbers among the Democrats (25 percent) and Republicans (23 percent) will acknowledge antisemitism as a concern in their own party. The ADL poll suggests the legitimacy of such suspicions, finding that “28 percent of Republicans and 30 percent of Democrats agreed with tropes such as Jews have too much influence in politics and media.”
Partisan affiliations correlated with where respondents saw the most significant antisemitic threats. Republicans expressed a 3.6 times greater likelihood of worries about left-wing antisemitism compared to Democrats who were 4.4 times as likely to focus on right-wing antisemitism.
The pollsters found that attitudes toward the severity of the antisemitic threat differed according to age.
While 80 percent of silent generation respondents saw antisemitism as a serious problem, that number fell to 65 percent for baby boomers and members of Generation X. The rates dropped again for millennials (52 percent) and Gen-Zers (55 percent).
Perceptions of antisemitism in local communities also differed by generation. While 19 percent of Americans overall report having witnessed antisemitism in their communities, that figure jumps to 33 percent for Gen-Zers and 20 percent for millennials. Among the boomers it drops to 10 percent and for Silent Generation respondents it reaches 17 percent.
Large numbers saw the threat of popular protest slogans “globalize the intifada” and “from the river to the sea” with 68 percent seeing the phrases as potentially fueling violence, a view held even among 54 percent of those who favor protests against Israel.
Researchers also observed a correlation between Israel support and perceiving the seriousness of antisemitism in America. While 74 percent of those favorable to Israel saw domestic antisemitism as significant, only 57 percent of those with negative views of the Jewish state agreed.
Nearly a quarter of those polled—24 percent—expressed the conspiratorial view that some group had staged the attacks to provoke sympathy for Israel. A second report also released by the ADL on Friday showed the rise in discussions of “false flag” attacks on the Reddit website in response to the antisemitic violence.
The ADL warned that “these beliefs are especially dangerous because they justify holding Jewish Americans responsible for the actions of the State of Israel, effectively viewing them as collectively responsible for international politics—making them greater targets.”
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Sen. Bernie Sanders Calls on Democrats to Stop Accepting Money From AIPAC
US Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks to the media following a meeting with US President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, US, July 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), took to X/Twitter on Monday to call on all Democrats to stop accepting political donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the influential pro‑Israel lobbying entity.
In his tweet, Sanders wrote that AIPAC has aided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in waging an “illegal and immoral war being waged against the Palestinian people.” Sanders continued, claiming that “NO Democrat should accept money from AIPAC” while asserting that the organization helped “deliver the presidency to Donald Trump.”
Sanders’s post came in response to comments by former Obama administration foreign policy advisor Ben Rhodes, in which Rhodes urged Democrats to reject all future donations from AIPAC. Rhodes argued that AIPAC has influenced Democrats to take immoral stances on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
“AIPAC is part of the constellation of forces that has delivered this country into the hands of Donald Trump and Stephen Miller, and you cannot give them a carve out,” Rhodes said on an episode of the podcast Pod Save the World. “We need to have this fight as a party, because these are the wrong people to have under your tent.”
Tommy Vietor, another former Obama administration official and podcast co-host, agreed, accusing AIPAC of “funneling money to front organizations that primary progressive Democrats.”
AIPAC, the foremost pro-Israel lobbying firm in the US, has historically backed pro-Israel candidates from both parties. The organization does not specifically lobby against progressive candidates. AIPAC has aided the campaigns of pro-Israel progressives such as Ritchie Torres.
Sanders has long held an acrimonious relationship with AIPAC. In November 2023, he repudiated the group for supposedly having”supported dozens of GOP extremists who are undermining our democracy,” and urged his fellow Democrats to stand together in the fight for a world of peace, economic and social justice and climate sanity.”
Rhodes, a former deputy national security adviser under President Obama, has emerged as a vocal critic of Israeli policy, particularly under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His skepticism is rooted in years of diplomatic frustration during the Obama administration, especially surrounding failed peace negotiations and Israel’s settlement expansions in the West Bank. Rhodes has often framed Israel’s hardline stance as a major obstacle to a two-state solution, and he has been critical of what he sees as unconditional U.S. support that enables right-wing Israeli policies. His stance reflects a broader shift among some American progressives who advocate for a more balanced U.S. approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Sanders has long been a staunch critic of the Jewish state. Sanders has repeatedly accused Israel of committing “collective punishment” and “apartheid” against the Palestinian people. Although the senator initially condemned the Oct. 7 slaughters of roughly 1200 people throughout southern Israel by Hamas, he subsequently pushed for a “ceasefire” between the Jewish state and the terrorist group. Sanders also spearheaded an unsuccessful campaign to implement a partial arms embargo on Israel in 2024.
In the 20 months following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel, relations between the Democratic party and the Jewish state have deteriorated. Democratic lawmakers have grown more vocally critical of Israel’s military conduct in Gaza, sometimes arguing that the Jewish state has recklessly endangered lives of Palestinian civilians. Moreover, polls indicate that Democratic voters have largely turned against Israel, intensifying pressure on liberal lawmakers to shift their tone regarding the war in Gaza.
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Iranian National Charged in Plot to Subvert US Sanctions Against Islamic Republic
Iranians participating in a memorial ceremony for IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists in downtown Tehran, Iran, on July 2, 2025. Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl via Reuters Connect.
Federal law enforcement officials have arrested an Iranian national after uncovering his alleged conspiracy to export US technology to Tehran in violation of a slew of economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic, the US Department of Justice announced on Friday.
For May 2018 to July 2025, Bahram Mohammad Ostovari, 66, allegedly amassed “railway signaling and telecommunications systems” for transport to the Iranian government by using “two front companies” located in the United Arab Emirates. After filing fake orders for them with US vendors at Ostovari’s direction, the companies shipped the materials — which included “sophisticated computer processors” — to Tehran, having duped the US businesses into believing that they “were the end users.”
The Justice Department continued, “After he became a lawful permanent resident of the United States in May 2020, Ostovari continued to export, sell, and supply electronics and electrical components to [his company] in Iran,” noting that the technology became components of infrastructure projects commissioned by the Islamic Republic.
Ostovari has been charged with four criminal counts for allegedly violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations (ITSR), under which conducting business with Iran is proscribed due to the country’s human rights abuses, material support for terrorism, and efforts to build a larger-scale nuclear program in violation of international non-proliferation obligations. Each count carries a 20-year maximum sentence in federal prison.
Ostovari is one of several Iranian nationals to become the subject of criminal proceedings involving crimes against the US this year.
In April, a resident of Great Falls, Virginia — Abouzar Rahmati, 42 — pleaded guilty to collecting intelligence on US infrastructure and providing it to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
“From at least December 2017 through June 2024, Rahmati worked with Iranian government officials and intelligence operatives to act on their behalf in the United States, including by meeting with Iranian intelligence officers and government officials using a cover story to hide his conduct,” the Justice Department said at the time, noting that Rahmati even infiltrated a contractor for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that possesses “sensitive non-public information about the US aviation sector.”
Throughout the duration of his cover, Rahmati amassed “open-source and non-public materials about the US solar energy industry,” which he delivered to “Iranian intelligence officers.”
The government found that the operation began in August 2017, after Rahmati “offered his services” to a high-ranking Iranian government official who had once been employed by the country’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, according to the Justice Department. Months later, he traveled to Iran, where Iranian agents assigned to him the espionage activity to which he pleaded guilty to perpetrating.
“Rahmati sent additional material relating to solar energy, solar panels, the FAA, US airports, and US air traffic control towers to his brother, who lived in Iran, so that he would provide those files to Iranian intelligence on Rahmati’s behalf,” the Justice Department continued. Rahmati also, it said, delivered 172 gigabytes worth of information related to the National Aerospace System (NAS) — which monitors US airspace, ensuring its safety for aircraft — and NAS Airport Surveillance to Iran during a trip he took there.
Rahmati faces up to 10 years in prison. He will be sentenced in August.
In November, three Iranian intelligence assets were charged with contriving a conspiracy to assassinate critics of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as then US President-elect Donald Trump.
According to the Justice Department, Farhad Shakeri, 51; Carlisle Rivera, 49; and Jonathan Loadholt, 36, acted at the direction of and with help from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an internationally designated terrorist organization, to plot to murder a US citizen of Iranian origin in New York. Shakeri, who remains at large and is believed to reside in Iran, was allegedly the principal agent who managed the two other men, both residents of New York City who appeared in court.
Their broader purpose, prosecutors said, was to target nationals of the United States and its allies for attacks, including “assaults, kidnapping, and murder, both to repress and silence critical dissidents” and to exact revenge for the 2020 killing of then-IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike in Iraq. Trump was president of the US at the time of the operation.
All three men are now charged with murder-for-hire, conspiracy, and money laundering. Shakeri faces additional charges, including violating sanctions against Iran, providing support to a terrorist organization, and conspiring to violate the International Emergency Powers Act, offenses for which he could serve up to six decades in federal prison.
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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