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The Fall of Assad: Israel’s Fragile Advantage
An Israeli tank crosses the ceasefire line between Syria and the Israeli Golan Heights, Dec. 11, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Avi Ohayon
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a turning point in the decades-long Syrian civil war, has set the stage for a drastically different Middle East. While many see Assad’s defeat as a blow to Iranian influence and a big win for Israel, the reality is far more complex and disheartening.
For years, Assad’s regime was a predictable enemy of Israel. While it engaged in occasional attacks and supported groups like Hezbollah, Assad carefully avoided provoking full-scale conflict with the Jewish State. His regime maintained a level of control over Syrian territory, limiting the ability of extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda to operate freely. This control allowed for relative stability on Israel’s northern border.
The rebel group now dominating Syria risks replacing the predictable relationships under Assad with widespread chaos. This shift introduces not just unpredictability but also direct security threats for Israel, undermining the assumption that Assad’s downfall is a victory for the Jewish State.
With Assad’s downfall, the country is no longer a singular nation but a fractured region with competing Islamist groups, many of which harbor deep animosity toward Israel. The most prominent group to emerge is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), currently designated as a terrorist organization, rooted in Al-Qaeda’s ideology.
HTS, founded initially as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2012, became Al-Qaeda’s official partner in Syria before later distancing itself from the group to broaden its appeal. Many argue, however, that its leadership and ideology remain firmly tied to Al-Qaeda’s global jihadist movement.
By 2022, HTS had control over significant parts of Syria’s northwest, particularly in the Idlib province, with a fighting force estimated at over 30,000.
HTS has made no secret of its hostility toward Israel. Recently, its leadership has issued repeated threats, calling for the liberation of Jerusalem and vowing to target Israeli territory. While the group’s primary focus remains on consolidating power in Syria, its anti-Israel rhetoric raises concerns about future confrontations, significantly as the group expands its presence near the Golan Heights.
Under Assad, terrorist activity from Syria into Israel was minimal due to the regime’s tight border control. However, the current disorganization in Syria has opened opportunities for groups like Al-Qaeda to exploit the instability.
In 2023 alone, Israeli forces intercepted at least two smuggling attempts involving weapons and explosives along the Syrian border, underscoring the growing threat.
HTS’ takeover of Syria raises the likelihood of increased cross-border violence.
The Jordanian military, which has successfully conducted counterterrorism operations against ISIS and other extremist factions, now faces the challenge of monitoring an increasingly unstable border with Syria. A 2022 report by the Jordanian Armed Forces highlighted a surge in smuggling incidents along the Syrian border, many involving drugs and weapons trafficked by groups like the HTS.
For Israel, a destabilized Jordan is a matter of significant concern. Jordan remains one of Israel’s most cooperative neighbors, with both nations sharing a peace treaty since 1994. If HTS succeeds in undermining Jordan’s security, it could disrupt this vital alliance and force Israel to reallocate military resources, further straining its defense capabilities amid rising threats on other fronts.
The United States has adopted a cautious approach to Syria. The absence of the US has left Israel alone in managing the results of Syria’s collapse, forcing it to rely on military actions like airstrikes against military targets within Syria. These strikes, while effective in the short term, risk escalating tensions and drawing Israel into broader conflicts.
Despite the challenges, the fragmentation of Syria does offer some short-term advantages for Israel. Traditional adversaries, like Hezbollah, have been weakened. Yet, these gains are unlikely to last; the rise of extremist groups like HTS poses a long-term danger that could surpass the challenges presented by Assad’s regime.
The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the end of an era but does not guarantee stability or security for Israel. Instead, it brings in a period of heightened uncertainty, where new threats emerge. While Israel may not face immediate danger from the new Syrian regime, there is a serious potential for future conflict.
Israel’s challenge is to adapt swiftly to this new reality, reorganizing its military and diplomatic strategies to address both immediate risks and long-term threats. As the region reshapes itself, support for Israel will be crucial in ensuring its security and maintaining this pillar of democracy in an increasingly radicalized Middle East.
The post The Fall of Assad: Israel’s Fragile Advantage first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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US Lawmakers Urge Trump to Restrict Visas for Iran’s President, Other Regime Officials Ahead of UN General Assembly
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during a meeting in Ilam, Iran, June 12, 2025. Photo: Iran’s Presidential website/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
A bipartisan group of US lawmakers is urging President Donald Trump to block or sharply restrict visas for Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and other top Iranian officials traveling to New York this month for the United Nations General Assembly, warning that Tehran will use the global platform to disguise its escalating repression at home.
In a letter sent to Trump on Thursday, 40 members of Congress pointed to Iran’s recent human rights record, which includes nearly 1,500 executions in the past year, and accused Pezeshkian’s government of openly threatening to repeat the mass killings of dissidents that scarred the country in 1988.
“Immediately following the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the Iranian regime escalated its widespread internal crackdown, arbitrarily arresting hundreds of ethnic minorities, civil society leaders, women’s rights activists, and others,” the lawmakers wrote. They described Iran’s leaders as “criminals” who “support terrorism” and “sow hatred and instability across the Middle East.”
The letter was signed by an unusually broad coalition of Republicans and Democrats, including House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (NY), as well as Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), Deborah Ross (R-NC), and Val Hoyle (D-OR), underscoring how concern about Iran’s hostility toward the US and its allies continues to cut across party lines.
Drawing a distinction between the regime and the Iranian people who support democracy, the lawmakers asked Trump to make a strong statement against a country that US intelligence agencies have long labeled the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism.
“We respectfully urge you to restrict the Iranian delegation’s freedom of movement, and, to the extent possible, refrain from issuing visas to key delegation members, including for its President, Masoud Pezeshkian,” the letter stated.
It continued, “We urge you to take a strong stand against the Iranian regime’s ongoing support for terrorism and human rights abuses, in line with your dedication toward ‘Peace through Strength’ and the maximum pressure campaign against the regime. We look forward to working you to further
oppose the destructive and destabilizing influence of the government of Iran and support the
Iranian people on the world stage.”
The lawmakers’ request comes as the Trump administration weighs new restrictions on several UN delegations ahead of the annual gathering. According to a State Department memo obtained by the Associated Press, the US is considering limiting the movements of officials not just from Iran, but also from Sudan and Zimbabwe. The department is also considering limiting the movements of officials from Brazil, whose president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, traditionally opens the General Assembly.
The proposals also suggest that Iranian diplomats be barred from shopping at Costco or Sam’s Club without explicit permission from the State Department, according to the AP report. Diplomats from Iran have historically relied on those stores to buy affordable goods unavailable in their home country. By contrast, the memo indicates that delegates from Syria may be granted a waiver, reflecting shifting US priorities in the region.
Under the UN Headquarters Agreement, the US is obligated to grant visas to foreign officials attending UN functions. But successive administrations have imposed restrictions on the travel of adversarial delegations, typically confining them to Manhattan and surrounding boroughs. The latest proposals would go further, potentially requiring advance State Department approval for movements and limiting access to certain businesses.
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Lebanon Cabinet Welcomes Army Plan to Disarm Hezbollah, No Timeline Given
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and members of the Lebanese cabinet meet to discuss efforts to bring all weapons in the country under the control of the state, at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, Aug. 5, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Emilie Madi
Lebanon’s cabinet on Friday welcomed a plan by the army that would disarm Hezbollah and said the military would begin executing it, without setting a timeframe for implementation and cautioning that the army had limited capabilities.
A national divide over Hezbollah’s disarmament has taken center stage in Lebanon since last year’s devastating war with Israel, which upended a power balance long dominated by the Iran-backed Shi’ite Muslim terrorist group.
The US and Saudi Arabia, along with Hezbollah’s primarily Christian and Sunni opponents in Lebanon, have ramped up calls for the group to give up arms.
But Hezbollah has pushed back, saying it would be a serious misstep to even discuss disarmament while Israel continues its air strikes on Lebanon and occupies swathes of territory in the south. Four people were killed in Israeli strikes on Wednesday.
On Friday, Lebanon’s cabinet met for three hours, which included the plan’s presentation by army commander Rodolphe Haykal.
All five Shi’ite cabinet ministers left the session in protest once Haykal entered the room.
Lebanese information minister Paul Morcos told reporters after the session that the government welcomed the plan but stopped short of saying the cabinet had formally passed it.
He said the army would begin implementing the plan according to its logistical, material and personnel capabilities, which might require “additional time [and’ additional effort.”
Morcos said the plan’s details would remain secret.
Hezbollah-aligned Labor Minister Mohammad Haidar told local media before the cabinet’s session had concluded that any decision taken in the absence of Shi’ite ministers would be null and void as it would be considered in contravention of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system.
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UK Museum Criticized for Postponing Jewish Heritage Exhibit Due to Concerns of ‘Incidences of Hate Crime’
The front of the Russell-Cotes Art Gallery & Museum in Bournemouth, Dorset. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
An art gallery and museum in Bournemouth, England, has been accused of cowering to threats from an “antisemitic mob” following its decision to postpone an exhibition on Jewish heritage.
The Russell-Cotes Art Gallery & Museum was scheduled to host an exhibit from Nov. 25-March 15, 2026, about the history of the city’s Jewish community as part of a project funded by the National Heritage Lottery Fund and researched by the Jewish Communities in Bournemouth, according to the BBC.
The museum recently announced that it will reschedule the exhibit for a later, unconfirmed date because of the “potential risks at a sensitive time.”
“Russell-Cotes Art Gallery and Museum is an important heritage asset housing culturally significant art,” a spokesperson for the museum said in a statement cited by The Telegraph. “In planning all exhibitions, we carefully assess any potential risks. We recognize this is a sensitive time and due to requirements related to this event, the museum has decided to postpone the exhibition and is working with the organizers to reschedule it for a later date.”
In a statement, the museum also referred to concerns it has regarding unspecified “incidences of hate crime” in the area, according to the BBC.
In Bournemouth’s East Cliff area last month, a Jewish man was shot with an air rifle and there were several reports of swastika graffiti, including one painted on the side of a house owned by a rabbi.
The Campaign Against Antisemitism (CAA), a British charity, called the museum’s decision to postpone the exhibit “utterly shameful” and accused the institution of choosing to “extinguish Jewish culture in the face of threats from an antisemitic mob.”
“At a time when British Jews are facing unprecedented levels of antisemitism and families are hiding their identity for fear of abuse or even violence, British institutions should be standing firm in support of Jewish life, not silencing it,” the organization said.
Britain has experienced a historic surge in antisemitism in the wake of the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel, amid the ensuing war in Gaza. Last month, the Community Security Trust (CST), a nonprofit charity that advises Britain’s Jewish community on security matters, published a report showing there were 1,521 antisemitic incidents in the UK from January to June of this year. It marks the second-highest total of incidents ever recorded by CST in the first six months of any year, following the first half of 2024 in which 2,019 antisemitic incidents were recorded.
In total last year, CST recorded 3,528 antisemitic incidents for 2024, the country’s second worst year for antisemitism and an 18 percent drop from 2023’s record of 4,296.
“When British Jews cannot celebrate and share their history in peace, what does that say about Britain today?” CAA added. “When British institutions cower to threats from a mob over the rights of law-abiding communities to share their stories and celebrate their positive contribution to British life, what has happened to British values?”
The Russell-Cotes Art Gallery & Museum did not respond to The Algemeiner‘s request for comment about CAA’s accusations and the museum’s decision to postpone the exhibit.