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The Fall of Assad: Israel’s Fragile Advantage

An Israeli tank crosses the ceasefire line between Syria and the Israeli Golan Heights, Dec. 11, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Avi Ohayon

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a turning point in the decades-long Syrian civil war, has set the stage for a drastically different Middle East. While many see Assad’s defeat as a blow to Iranian influence and a big win for Israel, the reality is far more complex and disheartening.

For years, Assad’s regime was a predictable enemy of Israel. While it engaged in occasional attacks and supported groups like Hezbollah, Assad carefully avoided provoking full-scale conflict with the Jewish State. His regime maintained a level of control over Syrian territory, limiting the ability of extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda to operate freely. This control allowed for relative stability on Israel’s northern border.

The rebel group now dominating Syria risks replacing the predictable relationships under Assad with widespread chaos. This shift introduces not just unpredictability but also direct security threats for Israel, undermining the assumption that Assad’s downfall is a victory for the Jewish State.

With Assad’s downfall, the country is no longer a singular nation but a fractured region with competing Islamist groups, many of which harbor deep animosity toward Israel. The most prominent group to emerge is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), currently designated as a terrorist organization, rooted in Al-Qaeda’s ideology.

HTS, founded initially as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2012, became Al-Qaeda’s official partner in Syria before later distancing itself from the group to broaden its appeal. Many argue, however, that its leadership and ideology remain firmly tied to Al-Qaeda’s global jihadist movement.

By 2022, HTS had control over significant parts of Syria’s northwest, particularly in the Idlib province, with a fighting force estimated at over 30,000.

HTS has made no secret of its hostility toward Israel. Recently, its leadership has issued repeated threats, calling for the liberation of Jerusalem and vowing to target Israeli territory. While the group’s primary focus remains on consolidating power in Syria, its anti-Israel rhetoric raises concerns about future confrontations, significantly as the group expands its presence near the Golan Heights.

Under Assad, terrorist activity from Syria into Israel was minimal due to the regime’s tight border control. However, the current disorganization in Syria has opened opportunities for groups like Al-Qaeda to exploit the instability.

In 2023 alone, Israeli forces intercepted at least two smuggling attempts involving weapons and explosives along the Syrian border, underscoring the growing threat.

HTS’ takeover of Syria raises the likelihood of increased cross-border violence.

The Jordanian military, which has successfully conducted counterterrorism operations against ISIS and other extremist factions, now faces the challenge of monitoring an increasingly unstable border with Syria. A 2022 report by the Jordanian Armed Forces highlighted a surge in smuggling incidents along the Syrian border, many involving drugs and weapons trafficked by groups like the HTS.

For Israel, a destabilized Jordan is a matter of significant concern. Jordan remains one of Israel’s most cooperative neighbors, with both nations sharing a peace treaty since 1994. If HTS succeeds in undermining Jordan’s security, it could disrupt this vital alliance and force Israel to reallocate military resources, further straining its defense capabilities amid rising threats on other fronts.

The United States has adopted a cautious approach to Syria. The absence of the US has left Israel alone in managing the results of Syria’s collapse, forcing it to rely on military actions like airstrikes against military targets within Syria. These strikes, while effective in the short term, risk escalating tensions and drawing Israel into broader conflicts.

Despite the challenges, the fragmentation of Syria does offer some short-term advantages for Israel. Traditional adversaries, like Hezbollah, have been weakened. Yet, these gains are unlikely to last; the rise of extremist groups like HTS poses a long-term danger that could surpass the challenges presented by Assad’s regime.

The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the end of an era but does not guarantee stability or security for Israel. Instead, it brings in a period of heightened uncertainty, where new threats emerge. While Israel may not face immediate danger from the new Syrian regime, there is a serious potential for future conflict.

Israel’s challenge is to adapt swiftly to this new reality, reorganizing its military and diplomatic strategies to address both immediate risks and long-term threats. As the region reshapes itself, support for Israel will be crucial in ensuring its security and maintaining this pillar of democracy in an increasingly radicalized Middle East.

Gregory Lyakhov has written for The Algemeiner and The Times of Israel, and is a passionate advocate for Israel. He runs a political blog focusing on elections, law, and Israel.

The post The Fall of Assad: Israel’s Fragile Advantage first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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French Foreign Minister Says Recognizing Palestinian State Defies Hamas, Despite Terror Group’s Praise

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot speaks to the media on the day he attends the European Union Foreign Ministers council in Brussels, Belgium, July 15, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot insisted on Friday that President Emmanuel Macron’s push to recognize a Palestinian state defies Hamas’s interests — even as the terrorist group welcomed the decision.

“Hamas has consistently rejected the two-state solution. By recognizing Palestine, France is rejecting the stance of this terrorist organization and affirming its support for peace over war,” the top French diplomat said in a post on X.

However, Hamas praised France’s latest announcement, calling it “a positive step in the right direction.”

France’s initiative is part of “a political development that reflects growing international conviction in the justice of the Palestinian cause and the failure of the Israeli occupation to distort facts or suppress the will of free nations,” said the Palestinian terrorist group, which has ruled Gaza for nearly two decades.

Hamas also said that such international steps “represent political and moral pressure” on Israel.

On Thursday, Macron announced that France will recognize a Palestinian state and issue a formal statement at the United Nations General Assembly in September as part of its “commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East.”

“The urgent priority today is to end the war in Gaza and to bring relief to the civilian population,” the French leader said in a post on X.

Macron called for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages still held by Hamas, and increased humanitarian aid for Gaza.

He also stressed the need to demilitarize the Iran-backed terrorist group, rebuild the war-torn enclave, and create a Palestinian state that recognizes Israel and ensures regional security.

“The French people want peace in the Middle East. It is our responsibility — as French citizens, alongside Israelis, Palestinians, and our European and international partners — to prove that peace is possible,” the French leader wrote.

However, despite Macron’s continued efforts, his controversial diplomatic initiative to recognize a Palestinian state faces widespread public opposition, with nearly 80 percent of French citizens rejecting the move.

A recent survey conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) on behalf of the Representative Council of Jewish Institutions of France (CRIF) — the main representative body of French Jews — found that 78 percent of respondents opposed a “hasty, immediate, and unconditional recognition of a Palestinian state.”

According to IFOP’s survey, nearly half of French people (47 percent) believe that recognition of a Palestinian state should only be considered after the release of the remaining hostages captured by Hamas during the group’s invasion of southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

The survey also revealed deep concerns about the consequences of such a premature recognition, with 51 percent of respondents fearing a resurgence of antisemitism in France and 50 percent believing it could strengthen Hamas’s position in the Middle East.

France’s policy move comes after Spain, Norway, Ireland, and Slovenia officially recognized a Palestinian state last year, claiming that such a move would contribute to fostering a two-state solution and promote lasting peace in the region.

On Friday, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas praised France’s decision, calling it a “victory for the Palestinian cause.”

“This reflects France’s commitment to supporting the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights to their land and their homeland,” Abbas said.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned France’s announcement, describing it as a “reward for terrorism.”

“Such a move … risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became,” the Israeli leader said in a post on X.

“A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel. They seek a state instead of Israel,” he continued.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also denounced the move, calling it “reckless” and saying it “only serves Hamas propaganda.”

The post French Foreign Minister Says Recognizing Palestinian State Defies Hamas, Despite Terror Group’s Praise first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Costa Rica Adopts IHRA Definition of Antisemitism, Joining Latin America’s Fight Against Rising Jew-Hatred

Part of an exhibit on the Holocaust supported by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA). Photo: courtesy of IHRA.

Costa Rica has formally adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s (IHRA) working definition of antisemitism, becoming the sixth country in Latin America to do so as antisemitic rhetoric and anti-Jewish hatred continue to rise across the region.

Local authorities announced the decision following meetings with a delegation from the American Jewish Committee’s (AJC) Arthur and Rochelle Belfer Institute for Latino and Latin American Affairs.

Among the Latin American countries that have already endorsed the IHRA definition are Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Uruguay.

An intergovernmental organization comprising dozens of countries, including the United States and Israel, IHRA adopted the “working definition” of antisemitism in 2016.

Since its adoption, the definition has gained widespread support from Jewish organizations and lawmakers around the world, and is now used by hundreds of governmental bodies, including the European Union and the United Nations.

According to the definition, antisemitism “is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.”

Beyond traditional antisemitic acts associated with the medieval period and Nazi Germany, the definition provides contemporary examples of antisemitism found in public life, media, education, workplaces, and religious settings — including Holocaust denial and modern forms targeting Israel, such as demonizing the Jewish state and denying its right to exist.

Jewish organizations hailed Costa Rica’s recent decision as a significant milestone in the global fight against Jew-hatred, amid a worldwide surge in antisemitism following the Hamas-led invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

“We are grateful that Costa Rica has joined the growing number of nations that view the IHRA definition as an essential guidepost to recognize antisemitism in its various forms so it can be properly addressed,” Dina Siegel Vann, director of AJC’s Institute for Latin American Affairs, said in a statement.

“We urge all nations to take this important step to protect their Jewish communities and uphold their Democratic values,” she continued.

Gilbert Meltzer, president of Costa Rica’s Jewish Community, commended the government’s decision to “support morality and combat discrimination.”

“The increase of hate speech and attacks on Jews all over the world, especially after Oct. 7, demands ethical decisions and firm actions as this one,” Meltzer said in a statement.

The European Jewish Congress also praised Costa Rica’s latest move, describing it as “a timely and courageous step” amid a rising climate of hostility against Jews.

“Defining hate is the first step to combating it. A principled move that must inspire others,” the statement read.

The post Costa Rica Adopts IHRA Definition of Antisemitism, Joining Latin America’s Fight Against Rising Jew-Hatred first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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‘Reckless Decision’: US Officials Blast France for Recognizing Palestinian State

US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron react on the day of a press conference, at the White House in Washington, DC, US, Feb. 24, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

US officials were quick to castigate France for its intention to recognize a Palestinian state in September at the United Nations General Assembly, describing the policy as “reckless” and a move that undermines efforts to end the ongoing war in Gaza.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who announced the decision on X, published a letter sent to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas confirming France’s intention to press ahead with Palestinian recognition.

“True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognize the State of Palestine,” Macron said. “I will make this solemn announcement at the United Nations General Assembly next September.”

France, home to the third largest Jewish community in the world, will become the first major Western country to recognize a Palestinian state, after smaller nations more generally more critical of Israel did so last year.

Washington lambasted France’s announcement.

“The United States strongly rejects Emmanuel Macron’s plan to recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on the X social media platform. “This reckless decision only serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace. It is a slap in the face to the victims of October 7th.”

Likewise, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee slammed France for moving to recognize a Palestinian state.

“How clever! If Macron can just ‘declare’ the existence of a state perhaps the UK can ‘declare’ France a British colony!” he said on X. “Macron’s unilateral ‘declaration’ of a ‘Palestinian’ state didn’t say WHERE it would be. I can now exclusively disclose that France will offer the French Riviera & the new nation will be called ‘Franc-en-Stine.’”

Huckabee has long opposed the recognition of a Palestinian state. In June, the ambassador said that he did not think that an independent Palestinian state remains a goal of US foreign policy.

US President Donald Trump on Friday dismissed Macron’s plan, saying it won’t make a difference.

“What he says doesn’t matter,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “He’s a very good guy. I like him, but that statement doesn’t carry weight.”

Trump added, “”Look, he’s a different kind of a guy. He’s okay. He’s a team player, pretty much. But here’s the good news: What he says doesn’t matter. It’s not going to change anything.”

Israeli officials lambasted France’s plan as a “reward for terrorism,” arguing a Palestinian state at this time would become a hub for terrorism and likely a proxy of Iran, which has long backed the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.

“A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel; they seek a state instead of Israel,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a post on X.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar condemned Macron’s “absurd and unserious” decision that Paris will formally recognize a Palestinian state.

“A Palestinian state would be a Hamas state — just as the [Israeli] withdrawal from the Gaza Strip 20 years ago led to Hamas’s takeover there,” he said in a statement posted on X.

“Israel’s attempt to base its security on Palestinian promises to fight terror failed entirely in the Oslo process,” he continued, referring to the 1990s peace initiative between Israel and the Palestinians that sought a two-state solution. “Israel will no longer gamble with its security and its future.”

Israel maintains that Palestinian statehood should only come as the result of a negotiated peace agreement that ensures Israel’s security and recognition as a Jewish state.

The French announcement comes amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza, where Israeli military operations continue following Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel.

Macron defended the decision to recognize a Palestinian state in a statement, saying that the proclamation underscores that France is “true to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East.”

“We must finally build the State of Palestine, ensure its viability and enable it, by accepting its demilitarization and fully recognizing Israel, to contribute to the security of all in the Middle East,” he added.

The post ‘Reckless Decision’: US Officials Blast France for Recognizing Palestinian State first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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