RSS
The Future of Syria Is Uncertain; Here’s What Israel Should Be Doing (PART TWO)
Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, waits to welcome the senior Ukrainian delegation led by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, after the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 30, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi
Part One of this article appeared here.
Former UK Chief Rabbi Jonathan Sachs referred in one of his articles to the book Radical Uncertainty by British economists John Kay and Mervin King. The book makes a distinction between risk and uncertainty. Risk can be calculated, but uncertainty cannot. Therefore, in situations of uncertainty, the authors recommend focusing on understanding the situation. This should be accomplished not by calculating probabilities but by observing what is actually happening on the ground with eyes that are open to new perspectives and new threats.
This approach should apply to the current shake-up of the regional system in the Middle East.
The Turkish orientation towards the leadership of al-Julani, leader of the rebels, warrants great concern. Turkish President Erdogan has never hid his ambition to renew the Ottoman Empire. The prospect of an occupation of Damascus by Sunni Muslim forces has an exciting power that could reunify radical Islamic forces to the point of reestablishing an al-Qaeda state in Syria. The third purpose of the IDF’s operations in the region is to focus on these concerns.
Meanwhile, under Erdogan’s leadership, the Kurdish region east of the Euphrates River is under threat of a military attack meant to eliminate it. This will test the ability of the American administration to stand up for its Kurdish allies.
With the collapse of the state order built with the Sykes-Picot Agreements at the end of World War I, an opportunity has arisen to correct an injustice. The international community’s concern for the right to self-determination of minorities has focused over the past century mainly on the Palestinians — but some 30 million Kurds have been trapped for a century without any possibility of a state.
The United States, as a superpower, is facing an unprecedented challenge to its ability to influence emerging trends in the regional chaos that has arisen in Syria.
In all of Israel’s past wars, including the War of Independence, the end of the war was determined by agreements with countries with a recognized identity that existed before the war and continued to exist after it. Now, for the first time, the State of Israel is facing an unknown reality.
Israeli disillusionment in Syria
The collapse of the Assad regime and the trends emerging in Syria in recent weeks required the State of Israel to respond immediately, which entailed abandoning its longstanding security perception of the “villa in the jungle.” In addition to needing to defensively penetrate the expanses of the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, Israel had to assign a special strategic purpose to the effort to maintain Israeli control of the Syrian space in front of the border: to project Israeli military power onto the trends developing in Syria.
This expressed the understanding that if Israel were to take a passive position of simple observation in defending the Golan Heights border line without daring to go beyond the “walls of the villa,” it would not have the appropriate levers to create a position of influence and bargaining to secure Israeli security interests in the emerging system in Syria and Lebanon. Miraculously, the developments in Syria forced Israeli security policy to shatter the barriers of the “villa” perception that had bound it.
A controversy from the beginning
From the beginning of the Zionist enterprise, the Jewish community both openly and covertly struggled with the tension between the two trends — convergence to the borders of the “villa” or integration into the Arab space. This tension was also expressed architecturally. While the settlements of the first aliyah were built along a main axis, such as Kfar Tavor and Yavne’al, in a way that allowed the movement of Arabs and Jews through the colony, the settlements built in the third aliyah and onwards were built off the main road in the form of a closed camp. As a result, with the confrontation of events (especially those of 1936-39, and the activity of Yitzhak Sadeh and Orde Wingate’s field companies), a dispute arose over the question of exiting the fence into the space.
In her book The Sword of the Dove, Anita Shapira describes the way in which Wingate tried to lead his men into active defense activities outside the fence. Wingate’s approach provoked resistance among the kibbutzim of the Jezreel Valley, stemming from this question: where is the line along which it is clear to everyone that they are defending their existence? Is it the fence line or is it beyond it? This debate was not only conducted in the moral dimension. It began as an operational issue. Sadeh’s and Wingate’s concept of defense required engaging in friction in the space outside the fences of the settlements. This was the concept of the guards at the beginning of the formation of the Hebrew defense force. For them, free movement in the space outside the settlements was not only a necessity to fulfill the defense mission but an expression of their desire to integrate into the space in the cultural dimension as well.
Recognizing the need for active regional integration, the State of Israel, under Ben-Gurion’s leadership, turned to proactive activity in areas outside the country’s borders in its early years. While Israel was still under a regime of economic austerity, Israeli delegations operated in African countries in the fields of agriculture and security. In the 1960s, Israeli paratroopers assisted the Iraqi Kurds in fighting against the Iraqi army.
The essence of the perceptual gap
Between the approach that confines itself within the borders of the “villa” and the approach that requires active involvement in the space beyond the borders, there is a deep gap in the perception of reality. The aspiration for confinement is based on the assumption that a country’s security situation can be stabilized by creating a status quo of borders, with each country limiting itself to activity within those borders. Switzerland, for example, succeeded in maintaining a status quo that is perceived as final and permanent within European historical circumstances.
The second approach does not hold with the assumption of the ability to preserve one’s existence in a stable and final status quo. Human reality, certainly in terms of the system of ties between countries, is subject to change and unexpected upheaval. The strategic position of a country is examined in this approach not only by what it manages to stabilize within its sovereign territory, but also by the alliances it maintains with entities in the space and its ability to actively engage in spheres of influence that shape regional trends. This is how Turkey operates in Libya and the Horn of Africa and is the thinking behind its current moves to establish military bases in the heart of Syria. Egypt has recently been involved militarily in Somalia, and Qatar, through its financial capabilities, is operating both in the region and far across the ocean.
The Mossad and its agents have operated and continue to operate with distinction in both close and distant circles outside the State of Israel. However, an overt presence is also required. The trend of Israeli confinement within the borders of the “villa” — with its security and cultural implication — has been revealed as a failure. In this dimension as in others, the Israeli national security concept requires a fundamental update.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen is a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. He served in the IDF for 42 years. He commanded troops in battles with Egypt and Syria. He was formerly a corps commander and commander of the IDF Military Colleges. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post The Future of Syria Is Uncertain; Here’s What Israel Should Be Doing (PART TWO) first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
Belgian Premier Rejects Genocide Allegations Against Israel, Says Not the Time for ‘Palestinian State’ Recognition
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever speaks at a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (not pictured) in Kyiv, Ukraine, April 8, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever rejected a journalist’s claim that Israel is committing “genocide” in Gaza and argued it is premature to recognize a “Palestinian state” at this time, marking a notable departure from the previous administration’s anti-Israel stance.
During an interview on Wednesday with VRT, the Flemish public broadcaster, journalist Goedele Devroy questioned the Belgian leader about the parliament’s position on the ongoing war in Gaza and a possible shift in its approach toward Israel, following his assertions that the Jewish state is committing genocide in the war-torn enclave.
“On recognizing Palestine, I hear that the majority [in parliament] is working on a resolution to sharpen the tone against the genocide that’s happening there by Israel,” Devroy said.
De Wever rejected the premise of the question, which dismissed Israel’s defensive actions against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.
“Your line of questioning is extremely dubious,” the Belgian premier said. “You’re already operating under the assumption of genocide — that is something for the International Court of Justice to determine.”
Lady, not so fast 🫸
Belgian Prime Minister rebukes journalist over ‘genocide’ claim and says that before recognising #Palestine, several issues must be resolved. Thank you Prime Minister @Bart_DeWever for your clear message on this day, the 77th anniversary of Israel.Video by… pic.twitter.com/WbqWPDpsmt
— EJA – EIPA (@EJAssociation) May 1, 2025
When asked about the possibility of recognizing a “Palestinian state,” De Wever dismissed the idea, stating that it is not the right time, as there are still many unresolved issues that need to be addressed.
“What territory are we recognizing? Which authority? Is it democratic, legitimate? Is it committed to recognizing Israel, to the demilitarization of Hamas and to providing security guarantees, with broader implications for the Arab world?” the Belgian leader said.
Under Belgium’s previous Socialist-led government, the country had been one of Israel’s most vocal critics within the European Union.
For example, Belgium joined South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Since December 2023, South Africa has been pursuing its case at the ICJ, accusing Jerusalem of committing “state-led genocide” in its defensive military campaign that followed the Hamas-led invasion of and massacre across southern Israel.
The previous government also committed to honoring an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza.
In November, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, and now-deceased Hamas terror leader Ibrahim al-Masri (better known as Mohammed Deif) for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza war.
The ICC said there were reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant were criminally responsible for starvation in Gaza and the persecution of Palestinians — charges vehemently denied by Israel, which until a recently imposed blockade had provided significant humanitarian aid into the enclave throughout the war.
Israel also says it has gone to unprecedented lengths to try and avoid civilian casualties, despite Hamas’s widely acknowledged military strategy of embedding its terrorists within Gaza’s civilian population and commandeering civilian facilities like hospitals, schools, and mosques to run operations and direct attacks.
However, since taking office, De Wever has shifted Belgium’s foreign policy toward a more pro-Israel stance. His center-right government, led by the National Flemish Alliance party, took power this year after winning the largest share of votes in Belgium’s 2024 general election.
Last month, De Wever said that Belgium would not enforce the ICC arrest warrant against Netanyahu if he were to visit the country.
“There is such a thing as realpolitik,” he said in an interview with VRT. “I don’t think any European country would arrest Netanyahu if he were on their territory. France wouldn’t do it, and I don’t think we would either.”
The post Belgian Premier Rejects Genocide Allegations Against Israel, Says Not the Time for ‘Palestinian State’ Recognition first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
Trump Says Fewer Than 24 Hostages Still Alive in Gaza, Offers Sympathies to Family of Edan Alexander
US President Donald Trump speaks at the White House, in Washington, DC, Feb. 3, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he has become aware that fewer than 24 hostages are still alive in Gaza, heightening urgency to rescue the remaining survivors in the war-torn enclave.
“Out of 59, you had 24 that were living, and now I understand that it’s not even that number,” Trump said during a National Day of Prayer event at the White House.
For several months, Israeli officials have stated that 24 of the 59 hostages who remain in captivity were believed to still be alive in Gaza. However, during a public appearance earlier this week, Sara Netanyahu, wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, claimed the actual number was lower than the official count.
During his remarks on the White House lawn acknowledging the National Day of Prayer, Trump extended sympathies to the family of Edan Alexander, the final American hostage still believed to be alive in Gaza. Alexander’s parents, Adi and Yael, were seated in the audience during Trump’s speech.
“We don’t know how he’s doing, really…. We think we know, and hopefully [it’s] positive,” Trump said, referencing Alexander’s uncertain condition. “Two months ago, we were pretty sure. It looked like he was getting out. But they’ve toughened up a little bit. And it’s a terrible thing, I know, what you’re going through.”
Trump expressed support for the families of the remaining hostages still in Gaza, acknowledging their emotional turmoil.
“We’re working very, very hard to save your son,” he continues. “We have news coming out — both good and bad.”
Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native and soldier in the Israeli army, was taken hostage by Hamas during the Palestinian terrorist group’s Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. More than 250 people were kidnapped as hostages during the onslaught.
Alexander’s unknown fate has drawn a great deal of attention in both the US and Israel due to his American citizenship.
In April, Hamas released a video of Alexander showing the IDF solider alive. However, days later, the terrorist group claimed to lack knowledge of Alexander’s fate, saying that they lost contact with the guards holding him hostage after the location was allegedly hit in an Israeli airstrike.
The post Trump Says Fewer Than 24 Hostages Still Alive in Gaza, Offers Sympathies to Family of Edan Alexander first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed Amid Rising Tensions
USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, Sept. 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
The fourth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, which were set to take place in Rome this weekend, have been postponed, with a new date yet to be announced amid rising tensions between Washington and Tehran.
On Thursday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei announced that the fourth round of indirect nuclear talks with US officials, originally scheduled for May 3, had been postponed at the suggestion of the Omani Foreign Minister, who mediated previous negotiations between the two adversaries.
In a post on X, the top Omani diplomat, Badr Albusaidi, confirmed that the upcoming talks had been delayed, stating that new dates will be announced once both sides reach a mutual agreement.
“For logistical reasons, we are rescheduling the US-Iran meeting provisionally planned for Saturday, May 3rd,” Albusaidi said.
For logistical reasons we are rescheduling the US Iran meeting provisionally planned for Saturday May 3rd. New dates will be announced when mutually agreed.
— Badr Albusaidi – بدر البوسعيدي (@badralbusaidi) May 1, 2025
Earlier on Thursday, Iran accused Washington of “contradictory behavior and provocative statements” following remarks by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who warned Tehran of severe consequences for supporting Yemen’s Houthi militia, an internationally designated terrorist group.
The Iran-backed group, which controls northern Yemen, has been targeting ships in the Red Sea since November 2023, disrupting global trade, while justifying the attacks as acts of solidarity with the Palestinians.
Iran’s accusation against Washington also comes after the US imposed new oil-related sanctions on Tehran this week, as US President Donald Trump continued pursing negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program.
As part of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran — which aims to cut the country’s crude exports to zero and prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon — Washington has been targeting Tehran’s oil industry with mounting sanctions.
“US sanctions on Iran during the nuclear talks are not helping the sides to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomacy,” a senior Iranian official told Reuters. “Depending on the US approach, the date of the next round of talks will be announced.”
Last month, the two adversaries held their first official nuclear negotiation since the US withdrew from a now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal that had imposed temporary limits on Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief.
The first and third rounds of talks were held in Oman, while the second round took place in Rome at the residence of the Omani ambassador.
Tehran has previously rejected halting its uranium enrichment program, insisting that the country’s right to enrich uranium is non-negotiable, despite Washington’s threats of military action, additional sanctions, and tariffs if an agreement is not reached to curb Iran’s nuclear activities.
However, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said that any deal with Iran must require the complete dismantling of its “nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.” Witkoff’s comments came after he received criticism for suggesting the Islamic Republic would be allowed to maintain its nuclear program in a limited capacity.
Despite Iran’s claims that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes rather than weapon development, Western states have said there is no “credible civilian justification” for the country’s recent nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”
The post US-Iran Nuclear Talks Postponed Amid Rising Tensions first appeared on Algemeiner.com.