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The Gaza War Has No Good Solutions, and Israel Remains Perilously at Risk
A child walks at the site of an Israeli air strike on a house, as the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem
Ten months after Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, it is possible to evaluate the achievements of the war’s two parties. Unlike the State of Israel, which officially declares its war aims, we can only estimate what Hamas’ war aims were before the October 7 attack.
Contrary to the opinions of several commentators who claimed that the goal of the war was to release Palestinian prisoners, it can be assumed that Hamas’ war goals were much broader and more ambitious, and some of them were even achieved.
In addition to the immediate goals of war, wars create wider circles of influence. War is like a stone that is thrown into a lake and creates ripples that reach areas far from the spot where the stone hit the water. The effect of war on events and processes is sometimes uncontrollable, not always predictable, and can last a long time. Sometimes the indirect effects are more significant than the goals defined by the combatants as their war aims. There are many examples: The United States overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq, but did not expect its victory to result in Iran’s taking advantage of the opportunity to become a regional power. Israel did not define a peace deal for Sinai as one of the goals of the Yom Kippur War, but that is what the war eventually led to. Israel succeeded in realizing its main war objective when it went into Lebanon in 1982, which was to remove the Arafat-led Fatah organization from Lebanon — but it did not take into account that that war would lead to the rise of the Shiite element in Lebanon led by Hezbollah.
In view of all this, the balance of achievements and failures of each side in the current war must be looked at with caution. Another difficulty in evaluation is the matter of quantifying achievements — that is, how to determine the “value” or strategic weight of each achievement compared to the failures or achievements of the other side. Without the ability to give such a value or weight it is difficult to make an overall assessment. Nevertheless, it is advisable to conduct an examination of the balance of achievements. Let’s start with Hamas and its allies — Iran and its proxies.
The achievements of Hamas and the resistance axis
Hamas managed to take advantage of the crisis in Israeli society in the months before the war to prepare and carry out a surprise attack that shocked and traumatized Israeli society to a degree comparable to the Yom Kippur War. Some believe that due to the massacre of civilians and the taking of the abductees, the trauma is even deeper.
As a result of the Hamas attack, the towns around the Gaza Strip were evacuated. Fear of a Hezbollah ground attack in the north led to the decision to evacuate the northern border towns as well, resulting in the total evacuation of about 200,000 people. A small number of residents of the south have been able to return and a slow reconstruction process has begun, but in the north, not only are the residents unable to return to their homes, but Hezbollah has spent the months of the war systematically destroying Israeli homes and property through precise shooting. It is difficult to exaggerate the magnitude of the achievement of the axis of resistance in forcing the evacuation of entire swaths of land and shrinking sovereign Israel, something that has not happened since the declaration of the state.
The fact that the army was caught by complete surprise resulted in many casualties on October 7. The hard fighting to occupy the Gaza Strip and destroy Hamas caused fewer casualties than estimated, but still, the number of casualties Israel has suffered is high. Since October 7, the IDF has lost the equivalent of an entire brigade in casualties and wounded, among them skilled special unit fighters and prominent field commanders.
The Hamas attack succeeded in mobilizing a broad and diverse international anti-Israel and indeed openly antisemitic front. The fight against Israel is being waged by states, NGOs, and international institutions such as the United Nations and the Human Rights Council. Huge demonstrations against Israel and supporting Hamas have been organized in major capitals throughout the free world.
Another campaign being waged against Israel is the legal campaign being conducted in the courts of international law, the ICC and the ICJ at The Hague, where lawsuits against Israel and its leaders are pending. These measures are damaging and have long-term consequences for Israel’s position. Another arm of this campaign is the mobilization of students in the United States and Europe for anti-Israel protests the likes of which have not been seen since the protests against the Vietnam War in the 1960s. At the same time, there is a strengthening of BDS organizations and a rising economic boycott of Israel by countries and companies. Various countries have banned military aid or even the transfer of aid as a stopover, as did Spain, which refused to allow an Indian ship loaded with military equipment destined for Israel to dock in its territory.
As an immediate result of the war and the many expenses that accompany it, Israel’s economy is facing difficult challenges. This was reflected by the leading rating agencies’ downward revision of Israel’s economic strength and growth forecast. The downgrade not only reflects the difficulties caused to Israel’s economy by the war but also makes it harder for Israel to raise cheap loans to finance war-created deficits.
The Hamas attack brought the Palestinian issue back to center stage. It is no longer possible to talk about progress toward a regional settlement without addressing the Palestinian issue, which means Israeli concessions. As part of the global support for the Palestinian cause, several countries have announced their recognition of a Palestinian state.
The Hamas attack mobilized several Iranian proxies to attack Israel. These attacks are primarily by Hezbollah on the northern border and by Yemen’s Houthis, who attack ships in the Red Sea and have fired missiles and anti-aircraft missiles at Eilat. Iraqi Shia militias also occasionally shoot at Israel. While it chose to conduct a limited campaign, Hezbollah has nevertheless caused a great deal of damage to Israel by exposing its weaknesses and inability to effectively stop Hezbollah fire.
The Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the massive Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of one of its senior officials in Syria drew relatively weak responses from the free world. This is worrying in and of itself and has consequences for the free world’s deterrence. This weakness of Israel’s allies reflects back on Israel.
The continuous attacks by Iran and its proxies on Israel expose a state of erosion of Israeli deterrence since October 7. Despite the success of the military operation in Gaza, Israel has not restored its regional deterrence.
Nine months after the attack, the internal divisions and struggles in Israeli society are reemerging around issues that create a fault line between supporters of the coalition and the government and the opposition and its various groups. To the previous issues of controversy has been added the issue of the hostages and the cessation of the war against continuation of the war and military pressure. These issues are being argued in an atmosphere of acute crisis of confidence among large contingents of citizens who do not believe the existing leadership is doing enough to free the hostages.
Hamas, even if greatly weakened and without its grip on parts of the Gaza Strip, remains the only ruler in the Strip. They are still in control, and they are holding dozens of hostages alive.
Israel’s main achievements
Despite a high price in casualties (albeit much lower than early estimates), Israel’s main achievement in the campaign is the destruction of Hamas’ military capabilities. Hamas as a significant military system no longer poses a threat to Israel. Israel took away its rocket capabilities and the ability to carry out a large ground raid across the border. The broader meaning is the termination of a central arm of the Iranian “ring of fire” plan around Israel. In the next confrontation against the “axis of resistance”, Israel will have one less front to be worried about and will be able to focus its efforts on the remaining theaters of operations.
Another important Israeli achievement that should not be underestimated is the breaking of the psychological barrier of the IDF commanders and the political echelon against a ground maneuver and the use of ground forces. At least since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, there has been a reluctance to use the maneuver as a decisive tool due to considerations of casualties and international pressure. As a result, Israel lost an important tool in its military arsenal and essentially gave up decisiveness, thus damaging Israeli deterrence. In this context, it is important to mention the role of the reserve forces and their return as a central force in the IDF, without which a major operation cannot be carried out.
The invasion of Gaza and accompanying destruction in the Strip created a severe trauma for Palestinian society that will undoubtedly reverberate in the Palestinian and regional consciousness for many years to come. The Palestinians as well as other parties in the region understand the price they may pay if they repeat a brutal attack and murder hundreds of Israeli civilians.
Israeli society has proven once again that it has healthy foundations and is committed to life. The widespread recruitment into the reserves, the return of many Israelis from abroad expressly to enlist, and the mobilization of civil organizations for the war effort once again proved the resilience and solidarity of Israeli society, which enable it to face difficult challenges.
The subject of the hostages is sensitive and painful. Many people see the half-empty glass – the dozens of hostages still being held alive in Gaza. But it should also be noted that about half the hostages, most of them women, children and the elderly, were released during the military operation at a relatively low price.
Another significant achievement is the coalition led by the United States and specifically by American Central Command to thwart the massive Iranian missile attack on Israel. Israel trained for several years and prepared with its partners for such a scenario, but until it is faced in reality, it is hard to know whether and how such a coalition would be activated on Israel’s side. Stopping the Iranian attack was a major success and proof of the existence of a coalition that knows how to function together on the operational level. In addition, Israel proved that its Arrow system is capable of intercepting dozens of ballistic missiles and that Israel is equipped with a unique global capability in this regard.
American backing, and the standing of the United States on Israel’s side, is a critical asset for Israeli national strength. However, the sending of aircraft carriers signaled Israeli weakness. Also, the uneven messages of the Americans over the past months, such as the pressure not to enter Rafah, the halting of arms shipments and other statements, did not add to and even weakened Israeli strength. The United States supports Israel, but with many reservations and limitations.
The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, Jordan, and even Saudi Arabia also participated in repelling the Iranian attack. This marked the peak of another Israeli achievement: the maintaining of the Abraham Accords and the potential for a settlement with Saudi Arabia, which is still on the table. The importance of this development should not be underestimated.
At the same time, Israel achieved another achievement: curbing the outbreak of additional arenas that Hamas hoped would be dragged into the conflict. Following the October 7 attack, Hamas hoped the West Bank as well as the Arab-Israeli sector would join the riots, as happened during Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021. In fact, the opposite happened. For the most part, the Arab-Israeli public was shocked by the barbarity of the attack (in which quite a few Arabs were also murdered) and expressed solidarity and a shared fate with the Jewish public.
What’s next
Israel is in a continuous and difficult campaign, the end of which is hard to discern. The Israeli success story of projecting regional, military, economic, and political power suffered a severe blow on October 7. The “axis of resistance” recognizes this weakness and is looking for another opportunity to strike Israel and weaken it further. In the background is Iranian nuclearization, which adds another dramatic dimension to the regional conflict centered on Iran, Israel, and the Sunni-Shia struggle.
Israel is faced with a dilemma. It has two alternatives. The first is talks to end the war and withdraw from Gaza, as demanded by Hamas. In exchange for this and the release of all Palestinian prisoners, Hamas says it will release the hostages. Taking this option would make it possible to reach a settlement in the north, because Nasrallah has said he will stop Hezbollah from firing if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel would be free to rehabilitate itself internally and improve its international position, and would also be able to prepare for the next campaign after a thorough learning of lessons and re-equipping. Israel would be able to resume the promotion of normalization with Saudi Arabia, which would open the door to a security and economic partnership and a regional alliance that would stop Iran and its proxies. Some believe the main purpose of the Hamas attack was to prevent just such an alliance, which would be a regional game-changer.
On the face of it, this alternative has many advantages. It is a tempting idea and many support it. But it has many risks. The withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip and the release of thousands of terrorists would in fact be an Israeli surrender and a relinquishment of most of the gains of the war. It would represent a tremendous victory for Hamas and the resistance front. It is not at all certain that Hamas would in fact release all the hostages it holds.
An Israeli withdrawal (including from the Philadephi axis) would mean a rapid restoration of Hamas’ military capabilities, with Iranian help. Israel, whose deterrence has been severely damaged, would find it difficult to gather legitimacy and support either domestically or internationally for a ground campaign aimed at destroying Hamas. It would be difficult to convince evacuated Israelis to return to their homes under Hezbollah’s umbrella. Israel may find itself losing in every direction.
In the second alternative, Israel continues to “mow the grass” in Gaza while putting pressure on Hamas and trying to reach a hostage deal. At the same time, Israel is building a governmental alternative to Hamas. Israel would be forced to reach a settlement in the north, and if this does not succeed, it would have no choice but to launch a limited attack to drive Hezbollah away from the border. This alternative is also full of risks and is far from simple. It has no clear end, and Israel could find itself in a regional war while it is immersed in a long-standing guerrilla war in Gaza. Its advantage would be the extinction of Hamas in Gaza and the guarantee of its non-return to power.
Both alternatives indicate that Israel will not return to the reality of October 6. It is facing difficult years of a prolonged existential struggle. To this end, it is imperative for Israel to be led by a leadership that enjoys the broad trust of the public.
One more thing to remember: History is full of unexpected turns and twists. The impact of events far from the Middle East, such as the selection of the next American president, can affect Israel’s ability to operate in Gaza and Lebanon and can greatly affect deterrence against Iran. Regarding Iran, a development that leads to regime change there could be a game-changing turn. A change in other areas of crisis in the world, such as around Taiwan and the South China Sea or continued Russian advances on the Ukraine front, could change the picture dramatically. In those cases, we are likely to see a shift in global attention toward those crisis centers and a tightening of ranks among the countries of the free world, and as a result, more significant support for Israel and its policies.
Prof. Eitan Shamir serves as the head of the BESA Center and as a faculty member in the Department of Political Science at Bar-Ilan University. His latest book is The Art of Military Innovation: Lessons from the IDF, Harvard University Press, 2023 (with Edward Luttwak). A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Columbia University Newspaper Endorses Mamdani for New York City Mayor
Candidate Zohran Mamdani speaks during a Democratic New York City mayoral primary debate, June 4, 2025, in New York, US. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/Pool via REUTERS
Columbia University’s flagship newspaper, The Columbia Daily Spectator, has endorsed a far-left New York City mayoral candidate who has been accused of antisemitism and made anti-Israel activism a cornerstone of his political career.
The Spectator’s editorial board issued the endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, a representative in the New York State Assembly, in a rare moment of summer activity, as most of the university’s student body is on holiday. It comes as the university’s leadership is reportedly taking steps to deal with a surge of campus antisemitism that captured national attention and led the Trump administration to pull federal funding over the school’s alleged failure to combat the crisis.
“Our endorsements reflect the consensus opinion of the editorial board, but we recognize that voters may weigh these issues differently,” the paper said on Tuesday. “As Spectator‘s editorial board, we endorse Zohran Mamdani as our top choice for New York City Mayor. Currently ranked second in most polls, the New York State Assembly member and his campaign have resonated with New Yorkers who have been repeatedly disappointed by the current administration.”
It added, “The Democratic Socialist has grounded his campaign in bread-and-butter issues such as universal child care, free public transportation, and affordable housing, echoing Sen. Bernie Sanders’ brand of economic populism.”
The paper’s choice of Mamdani prompted a slew of responses on social media. A native of Uganda born to parents from India, one of whom is an Oscar nominated filmmaker, Mamdani has refused to recognize the Jewish state of Israel, advocated adoption of the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel, and suggested that New York City — home to the world’s largest Jewish community outside of Israel — will divest from the country if he is elected.
Earlier this month, he refused to distance himself from the phrase “globalize the intifada,” a slogan that is believed to have inspired a wave of anti-Jewish violence which culminated in the murder of two young Israeli diplomats outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, DC in May. The Democratic mayoral candidate went as far as comparing the phrase to the motivations behind the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, prompting a rebuke from the US Holocaust Memorial Museum.
“I think what’s difficult is that the very word has been used by the Holocaust Museum when translating the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising into Arabic, because it’s a word that means struggle,” Mamdani said on the Bulwark podcast. “And as a Muslim man who grew up post-9/11, I’m too familiar in the way in which Arabic words can be twisted, can be distorted, can be used to justify any kind of meaning.”
The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising was an effort by Jews in Nazi-occupied Poland to fight back as they were set to be deported to concentration camps and killed during the Holocaust. In contrast, the slogan “globalize the intifada” references previous periods of sustained Palestinian terrorism against Jews and Israels known as intifadas, or uprisings.
On another occasion, years before he emerged as a candidate for mayor, Mamdani appeared to threaten that a “third intifada” was forthcoming.
Following the Spectator’s declaration of support for his campaign, Columbia University professor Shai Davidai charged that the paper had violated laws which prevent nonprofit entities, such as the Spectator, from entering the fray of electoral politics.
“The Columbia Spectator has just breached its non-profit status by endorsing a political candidate,” Davidai said. “Please join me in filing a formal complaint with the IRS against the Spectator Publishing Company. It’s time to make our colleges a partisan-free space for education.”
Elisha Baker, who studies Middle East History at Columbia University, said in a statement shared with The Algemeiner and other outlets that the Spectator is essentially throwing its support behind a surge of antisemitic violence called for by anti-Zionists of Mamdani’s mold.
“Zohran Mamdani is a threat to Jews in NYC and Americans everywhere. He marches with the antisemitic and anti-American mob,” Baker said. “A vote for Mamdani is a vote for antisemitism and continued pro-terror chaos on our streets. Especially since the tragic attacks in DC and Boulder, a vote for Mamdani is nothing short of a vote for Jews to stay inside.”
New York City will ultimately determine the merit of the case against the mayoral candidate, who would be the favorite to win the November general election if he prevails over his Democratic opponents, including former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, during Tuesday’s primary.
During the campaign, Cuomo criticized Mamdani’s links to the anti-Zionist movement.
“Yesterday when Zohran Mamdani was asked a direct question about what he thought of the phrase ‘globalize the intifada,’ he dismissed it as ‘language’ ‘that is subject to interpretation,’ Cuomo said in a statement earlier this month. “That is not only wrong – it is dangerous. At a time when we are seeing antisemitism on the rise and in fact witnessing once again violence against Jews resulting in their deaths in Washington DC or their burning in Denver – we know all too well that words matter. They fuel hate. They fuel murder. As the US Holocaust Museum so aptly said, all leaders or those running for office must condemn the use of this battle cry. There are no two sides here.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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Gaza Humanitarian Foundation Calls for UN to Condemn Attacks on Aid Workers, Collaborate Amid Mass ‘Disinformation’
Palestinians collect aid supplies from the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, June 9, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has called on the United Nations to publicly condemn the killing of aid workers in Gaza and to collaborate in order to provide relief to the enclave’s population, accusing the UN of perpetuating a “vast disinformation campaign” aimed at tarnishing the US- and Israel-backed foundation’s image.
In a letter sent to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday, GHF executive chairman Rev. Johnnie Moore defended the foundation’s efforts to distribute aid to the civilians of Gaza, the Palestinian enclave that has been ruled by the Hamas terrorist group for nearly two decades.
“Nearly 40 million meals have been distributed in our first month of operations from our Secure Distribution Sites,” Moore wrote, adding that the program has successfully distributed emergency aid to Palestinians in “desperate need” despite constantly operating “under grave threat.”
Moore also criticized the UN, saying that the GHF has “shared our data and our logistical approach” with the global body in hopes of forging a collaboration effort between the two entities. He lamented that the UN has “neither partnered with GHF nor even acknowledged our operational successes.”
“Our work has continued with normal operations amidst an expanding regional conflict, and also a vast disinformation campaign which has sought to stop us from feeding people from the moment we started,” Moore continued. “We regret that your own office has been a victim of this disinformation campaign which has only threatened to further harm the Gazan people.”
The GHF was created because Hamas routinely steals humanitarian aid, leaving civilians facing severe shortages. Documents released by the Israeli military earlier this month showed that Hamas operatives violently took control of approximately 25 percent of incoming aid shipments, which they then resold to civilians at inflated prices.
The GHF operates independently from UN-backed mechanisms, which Hamas has sought to reinstate, arguing that these frameworks are more neutral. Israeli and American officials have rejected those calls, saying Hamas previously exploited UN-run systems to siphon aid for its war effort. The UN has denied those allegations while expressing concerns that the GHF’s approach forces civilians to risk their safety by traveling long distances across active conflict zones to reach food distribution points.
Since the GHF launched operations in late May, there have been reports of Palestinians being shot near distribution sites. In specific cases, Israel has acknowledged targeting what it believed to be armed Hamas operatives using civilians as cover.
In his letter, Moore also criticized the UN for staying “absolutely silent in the wake of a targeted killing of GHF personnel nearly two weeks ago.”
“Their murder was not only a violation of international law, it was an affront to the very principles the UN purports to defend,” the GHF chairman added. He called on the UN to “publicly condemn the targeting of humanitarian workers in Gaza, and to denounce the obstruction of aid by Hamas and other armed factions.”
Moore’s letter came about two weeks after the GHF said that, on the night of June 11, several of its aid workers were killed when Hamas gunmen attacked a bus transporting local staffers.
The group said the vehicle was targeted as it carried more than 20 workers to a distribution site near the city of Khan Younis. In a statement Thursday, GHF said that at least people people were killed and several more were injured.
The bus attack followed days of threats from Hamas directed at the foundation and its workers.
According to Moore, the UN can help the humanitarian crisis in Gaza by working directly with GHD to help distribute aid “at scale” to needy civilians while bypassing “intermediaries.”
“The only credible response to food insecurity is food delivery. Anything less is a deferral of responsibility. We are ready to work with other humanitarian providers to deliver food straight to the Palestinian people and restore order to a system plagued by desperation and disorder,” Moore wrote.
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Netanyahu Declares Historic Win, Says Israel Removed Iran’s Nuclear Threat in 12-Day War
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference, in Jerusalem, May 21, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/Pool
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel in its 12 days of war with Iran had removed the threat of nuclear annihilation and was determined to thwart any attempt by Tehran to revive its program.
“We have removed two immediate existential threats to us – the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles,” he said in video remarks issued by his office.
“If anyone in Iran tries to revive this project, we will work with the same determination and strength to thwart any such attempt. I repeat, Iran will not have nuclear weapons.”
Netanyahu called it a historic victory that would stand for generations.
He said Israel never had a better friend in the White House than President Donald Trump, whose US military had dropped massive bunker-buster bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear sites in an attack over the weekend.
“Our friend President Trump has rallied to our side in an unprecedented way. Under his direction, the United States military destroyed the underground enrichment site at Fordow,” Netanyahu said.
He spoke hours after Trump directed stinging criticism at Israel over the scale of strikes Trump said had violated a truce with Iran negotiated by Washington, Israel‘s closest ally.
Netanyahu said Israel‘s work was unfinished. He cited the war against Iran’s ally Hamas in Gaza, where 50 hostages remain in captivity since the Palestinian terrorist group carried out a surprise attack on October 7, 2023.
About 20 are believed to be alive.
“We must complete the campaign against the Iranian axis, defeat Hamas, and bring about the release of all the hostages, both living and dead,” he said.
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