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The Gaza War Has No Good Solutions, and Israel Remains Perilously at Risk

A child walks at the site of an Israeli air strike on a house, as the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem

Ten months after Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, it is possible to evaluate the achievements of the war’s two parties. Unlike the State of Israel, which officially declares its war aims, we can only estimate what Hamas’ war aims were before the October 7 attack.

Contrary to the opinions of several commentators who claimed that the goal of the war was to release Palestinian prisoners, it can be assumed that Hamas’ war goals were much broader and more ambitious, and some of them were even achieved.

In addition to the immediate goals of war, wars create wider circles of influence. War is like a stone that is thrown into a lake and creates ripples that reach areas far from the spot where the stone hit the water. The effect of war on events and processes is sometimes uncontrollable, not always predictable, and can last a long time. Sometimes the indirect effects are more significant than the goals defined by the combatants as their war aims. There are many examples: The United States overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq, but did not expect its victory to result in Iran’s taking advantage of the opportunity to become a regional power. Israel did not define a peace deal for Sinai as one of the goals of the Yom Kippur War, but that is what the war eventually led to. Israel succeeded in realizing its main war objective when it went into Lebanon in 1982, which was to remove the Arafat-led Fatah organization from Lebanon — but it did not take into account that that war would lead to the rise of the Shiite element in Lebanon led by Hezbollah.

In view of all this, the balance of achievements and failures of each side in the current war must be looked at with caution. Another difficulty in evaluation is the matter of quantifying achievements — that is, how to determine the “value” or strategic weight of each achievement compared to the failures or achievements of the other side. Without the ability to give such a value or weight it is difficult to make an overall assessment. Nevertheless, it is advisable to conduct an examination of the balance of achievements. Let’s start with Hamas and its allies — Iran and its proxies.

The achievements of Hamas and the resistance axis

Hamas managed to take advantage of the crisis in Israeli society in the months before the war to prepare and carry out a surprise attack that shocked and traumatized Israeli society to a degree comparable to the Yom Kippur War. Some believe that due to the massacre of civilians and the taking of the abductees, the trauma is even deeper.

As a result of the Hamas attack, the towns around the Gaza Strip were evacuated. Fear of a Hezbollah ground attack in the north led to the decision to evacuate the northern border towns as well, resulting in the total evacuation of about 200,000 people. A small number of residents of the south have been able to return and a slow reconstruction process has begun, but in the north, not only are the residents unable to return to their homes, but Hezbollah has spent the months of the war systematically destroying Israeli homes and property through precise shooting. It is difficult to exaggerate the magnitude of the achievement of the axis of resistance in forcing the evacuation of entire swaths of land and shrinking sovereign Israel, something that has not happened since the declaration of the state.

The fact that the army was caught by complete surprise resulted in many casualties on October 7. The hard fighting to occupy the Gaza Strip and destroy Hamas caused fewer casualties than estimated, but still, the number of casualties Israel has suffered is high. Since October 7, the IDF has lost the equivalent of an entire brigade in casualties and wounded, among them skilled special unit fighters and prominent field commanders.

The Hamas attack succeeded in mobilizing a broad and diverse international anti-Israel and indeed openly antisemitic front. The fight against Israel is being waged by states, NGOs, and international institutions such as the United Nations and the Human Rights Council. Huge demonstrations against Israel and supporting Hamas have been organized in major capitals throughout the free world.

Another campaign being waged against Israel is the legal campaign being conducted in the courts of international law, the ICC and the ICJ at The Hague, where lawsuits against Israel and its leaders are pending. These measures are damaging and have long-term consequences for Israel’s position. Another arm of this campaign is the mobilization of students in the United States and Europe for anti-Israel protests the likes of which have not been seen since the protests against the Vietnam War in the 1960s. At the same time, there is a strengthening of BDS organizations and a rising economic boycott of Israel by countries and companies. Various countries have banned military aid or even the transfer of aid as a stopover, as did Spain, which refused to allow an Indian ship loaded with military equipment destined for Israel to dock in its territory.

As an immediate result of the war and the many expenses that accompany it, Israel’s economy is facing difficult challenges. This was reflected by the leading rating agencies’ downward revision of Israel’s economic strength and growth forecast. The downgrade not only reflects the difficulties caused to Israel’s economy by the war but also makes it harder for Israel to raise cheap loans to finance war-created deficits.

The Hamas attack brought the Palestinian issue back to center stage. It is no longer possible to talk about progress toward a regional settlement without addressing the Palestinian issue, which means Israeli concessions. As part of the global support for the Palestinian cause, several countries have announced their recognition of a Palestinian state.

The Hamas attack mobilized several Iranian proxies to attack Israel. These attacks are primarily by Hezbollah on the northern border and by Yemen’s Houthis, who attack ships in the Red Sea and have fired missiles and anti-aircraft missiles at Eilat. Iraqi Shia militias also occasionally shoot at Israel. While it chose to conduct a limited campaign, Hezbollah has nevertheless caused a great deal of damage to Israel by exposing its weaknesses and inability to effectively stop Hezbollah fire.

The Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the massive Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of one of its senior officials in Syria drew relatively weak responses from the free world. This is worrying in and of itself and has consequences for the free world’s deterrence. This weakness of Israel’s allies reflects back on Israel.

The continuous attacks by Iran and its proxies on Israel expose a state of erosion of Israeli deterrence since October 7. Despite the success of the military operation in Gaza, Israel has not restored its regional deterrence.

Nine months after the attack, the internal divisions and struggles in Israeli society are reemerging around issues that create a fault line between supporters of the coalition and the government and the opposition and its various groups. To the previous issues of controversy has been added the issue of the hostages and the cessation of the war against continuation of the war and military pressure. These issues are being argued in an atmosphere of acute crisis of confidence among large contingents of citizens who do not believe the existing leadership is doing enough to free the hostages.

Hamas, even if greatly weakened and without its grip on parts of the Gaza Strip, remains the only ruler in the Strip. They are still in control, and they are holding dozens of hostages alive.

Israel’s main achievements

Despite a high price in casualties (albeit much lower than early estimates), Israel’s main achievement in the campaign is the destruction of Hamas’ military capabilities. Hamas as a significant military system no longer poses a threat to Israel. Israel took away its rocket capabilities and the ability to carry out a large ground raid across the border. The broader meaning is the termination of a central arm of the Iranian “ring of fire” plan around Israel. In the next confrontation against the “axis of resistance”, Israel will have one less front to be worried about and will be able to focus its efforts on the remaining theaters of operations.

Another important Israeli achievement that should not be underestimated is the breaking of the psychological barrier of the IDF commanders and the political echelon against a ground maneuver and the use of ground forces. At least since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, there has been a reluctance to use the maneuver as a decisive tool due to considerations of casualties and international pressure. As a result, Israel lost an important tool in its military arsenal and essentially gave up decisiveness, thus damaging Israeli deterrence. In this context, it is important to mention the role of the reserve forces and their return as a central force in the IDF, without which a major operation cannot be carried out.

The invasion of Gaza and accompanying destruction in the Strip created a severe trauma for Palestinian society that will undoubtedly reverberate in the Palestinian and regional consciousness for many years to come. The Palestinians as well as other parties in the region understand the price they may pay if they repeat a brutal attack and murder hundreds of Israeli civilians.

Israeli society has proven once again that it has healthy foundations and is committed to life. The widespread recruitment into the reserves, the return of many Israelis from abroad expressly to enlist, and the mobilization of civil organizations for the war effort once again proved the resilience and solidarity of Israeli society, which enable it to face difficult challenges.

The subject of the hostages is sensitive and painful. Many people see the half-empty glass – the dozens of hostages still being held alive in Gaza. But it should also be noted that about half the hostages, most of them women, children and the elderly, were released during the military operation at a relatively low price.

Another significant achievement is the coalition led by the United States and specifically by American Central Command to thwart the massive Iranian missile attack on Israel. Israel trained for several years and prepared with its partners for such a scenario, but until it is faced in reality, it is hard to know whether and how such a coalition would be activated on Israel’s side. Stopping the Iranian attack was a major success and proof of the existence of a coalition that knows how to function together on the operational level. In addition, Israel proved that its Arrow system is capable of intercepting dozens of ballistic missiles and that Israel is equipped with a unique global capability in this regard.

American backing, and the standing of the United States on Israel’s side, is a critical asset for Israeli national strength. However, the sending of aircraft carriers signaled Israeli weakness. Also, the uneven messages of the Americans over the past months, such as the pressure not to enter Rafah, the halting of arms shipments and other statements, did not add to and even weakened Israeli strength. The United States supports Israel, but with many reservations and limitations.

The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, Jordan, and even Saudi Arabia also participated in repelling the Iranian attack. This marked the peak of another Israeli achievement: the maintaining of the Abraham Accords and the potential for a settlement with Saudi Arabia, which is still on the table. The importance of this development should not be underestimated.

At the same time, Israel achieved another achievement: curbing the outbreak of additional arenas that Hamas hoped would be dragged into the conflict. Following the October 7 attack, Hamas hoped the West Bank as well as the Arab-Israeli sector would join the riots, as happened during Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021. In fact, the opposite happened. For the most part, the Arab-Israeli public was shocked by the barbarity of the attack (in which quite a few Arabs were also murdered) and expressed solidarity and a shared fate with the Jewish public.

What’s next

Israel is in a continuous and difficult campaign, the end of which is hard to discern. The Israeli success story of projecting regional, military, economic, and political power suffered a severe blow on October 7. The “axis of resistance” recognizes this weakness and is looking for another opportunity to strike Israel and weaken it further. In the background is Iranian nuclearization, which adds another dramatic dimension to the regional conflict centered on Iran, Israel, and the Sunni-Shia struggle.

Israel is faced with a dilemma. It has two alternatives. The first is talks to end the war and withdraw from Gaza, as demanded by Hamas. In exchange for this and the release of all Palestinian prisoners, Hamas says it will release the hostages. Taking this option would make it possible to reach a settlement in the north, because Nasrallah has said he will stop Hezbollah from firing if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel would be free to rehabilitate itself internally and improve its international position, and would also be able to prepare for the next campaign after a thorough learning of lessons and re-equipping. Israel would be able to resume the promotion of normalization with Saudi Arabia, which would open the door to a security and economic partnership and a regional alliance that would stop Iran and its proxies. Some believe the main purpose of the Hamas attack was to prevent just such an alliance, which would be a regional game-changer.

On the face of it, this alternative has many advantages. It is a tempting idea and many support it. But it has many risks. The withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip and the release of thousands of terrorists would in fact be an Israeli surrender and a relinquishment of most of the gains of the war. It would represent a tremendous victory for Hamas and the resistance front. It is not at all certain that Hamas would in fact release all the hostages it holds.

An Israeli withdrawal (including from the Philadephi axis) would mean a rapid restoration of Hamas’ military capabilities, with Iranian help. Israel, whose deterrence has been severely damaged, would find it difficult to gather legitimacy and support either domestically or internationally for a ground campaign aimed at destroying Hamas. It would be difficult to convince evacuated Israelis to return to their homes under Hezbollah’s umbrella. Israel may find itself losing in every direction.

In the second alternative, Israel continues to “mow the grass” in Gaza while putting pressure on Hamas and trying to reach a hostage deal. At the same time, Israel is building a governmental alternative to Hamas. Israel would be forced to reach a settlement in the north, and if this does not succeed, it would have no choice but to launch a limited attack to drive Hezbollah away from the border. This alternative is also full of risks and is far from simple. It has no clear end, and Israel could find itself in a regional war while it is immersed in a long-standing guerrilla war in Gaza. Its advantage would be the extinction of Hamas in Gaza and the guarantee of its non-return to power.

Both alternatives indicate that Israel will not return to the reality of October 6. It is facing difficult years of a prolonged existential struggle. To this end, it is imperative for Israel to be led by a leadership that enjoys the broad trust of the public.

One more thing to remember: History is full of unexpected turns and twists. The impact of events far from the Middle East, such as the selection of the next American president, can affect Israel’s ability to operate in Gaza and Lebanon and can greatly affect deterrence against Iran. Regarding Iran, a development that leads to regime change there could be a game-changing turn. A change in other areas of crisis in the world, such as around Taiwan and the South China Sea or continued Russian advances on the Ukraine front, could change the picture dramatically. In those cases, we are likely to see a shift in global attention toward those crisis centers and a tightening of ranks among the countries of the free world, and as a result, more significant support for Israel and its policies.

Prof. Eitan Shamir serves as the head of the BESA Center and as a faculty member in the Department of Political Science at Bar-Ilan University. His latest book is The Art of Military Innovation: Lessons from the IDF, Harvard University Press, 2023 (with Edward Luttwak). A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.

The post The Gaza War Has No Good Solutions, and Israel Remains Perilously at Risk first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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As Gaza War Continues, Hamas Calls for Global Protests While Israel Marks Breakthroughs in Medical Innovation

A pro-Hamas march in London, United Kingdom, Feb. 17, 2024. Photo: Chrissa Giannakoudi via Reuters Connect

As the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas calls for global protests amid stalled Gaza ceasefire talks, Israel has broken new ground despite the ongoing conflict, achieving a major medical breakthrough in synthetic human kidney development.

The contrast illustrates a stark contrast between the priorities of Hamas, an international designated terrorist group that has ruled Gaza for nearly two decades, and Israel, the lone democracy in the Middle East that has long been a leader in tech and medical innovation.

On Wednesday, Hamas urged worldwide protests in support of Palestinians, calling on the international community “to denounce Israel’s genocidal war and starvation policy in Gaza.”

“We call for continuing and escalating the popular pressure in all cities and squares on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday … through rallies, demonstrations and sit-ins outside the embassies of the Israeli regime and its allies, particularly in the US,” the statement read.

The Palestinian terrorist group also called to expose what it described as “the terrorism of the Zio-Nazi occupation against defenseless civilians.”

Hamas’s latest move against Israel comes amid stalled indirect negotiations over a proposed 60-day ceasefire and hostage release deal, which collapsed last month after the group vowed it would not disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established — rejecting a key Israeli demand to end the war in Gaza.

In its statement, Hamas demanded the opening of all border crossings to allow immediate aid into the war-torn enclave and urged a global condemnation of “the international community’s inaction on the Israeli crimes.”

Amid mounting international pressure to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Israel announced new measures to facilitate the delivery of aid, including temporary pauses in fighting in certain areas and the creation of protected routes for aid convoys.

Israeli officials have previously accused Hamas of diverting aid for terrorist activities and selling supplies at inflated prices to civilians, while also blaming the United Nations and other foreign organizations for enabling this diversion.

Hamas’s statement also emphasized that the “global resistance movement must continue until Israeli aggression on Gaza ends and the siege on the coastal strip is lifted.”

Meanwhile, as Israel faces escalating hostilities and the heavy toll of war, the Jewish state continues to push the boundaries of innovation and resilience, achieving new medical breakthroughs while confronting ongoing challenges.

In a major medical breakthrough, scientists at Sheba Medical Center and Tel Aviv University have successfully grown a synthetic 3D miniature human kidney in a lab using specialized stem cells derived from kidney tissue — one of the most promising advances in regenerative medicine.

Dr. Dror Harats, chairman of Sheba’s Research Authority, described this achievement as a reflection of Israel’s leading role in global medical innovation.

“Despite growing efforts to isolate Israel from international science, breakthroughs like this prove our impact is both lasting and essential,” he said.

In a landmark study, a team from Sheba’s Safra Children’s Hospital and Tel Aviv University’s Sagol Center for Regenerative Medicine created synthetic kidney organs that matured and remained stable for 34 weeks — the longest-lasting and most refined kidney organoids developed to date.

Nearly a decade ago, the research team became the first to successfully isolate human kidney tissue stem cells — the cells responsible for the organ’s development and growth.

Previous attempts to grow kidneys in a lab using general-purpose stem cells were short-lived, typically lasting only a few weeks and often producing unwanted cell types that compromised research accuracy.

However, this Israeli research team used stem cells taken directly from kidney tissue — cells that naturally develop into kidney parts — allowing them to create a much purer and more stable model with key features found in real kidneys.

This medical breakthrough could have far-reaching implications, redefining the current understanding of kidney diseases and advancing the development of innovative treatments.

Researchers believe the model could help assess how medications impact fetal kidneys during pregnancy and move science closer to repairing or replacing damaged kidney tissue with lab-grown cells.

The discovery came days after researchers from Hebrew University of Jerusalem and international partners discovered a way to boost the immune system’s cancer-fighting ability by reprogramming how T cells, which are white blood cells critical to the immune system, produce energy.

The researchers explained in a study published in the peer-reviewed Nature Communications that disabling a protein known as Ant2 in T cells greatly enhances their effectiveness against tumors.

“By disabling Ant2, we triggered a complete shift in how T cells produce and use energy,” Prof. Michael Berger of Hebrew University’s Faculty of Medicine, who co-led the study with doctorate student Omri Yosef, told the Tazpit Press Service. “This reprogramming made them significantly better at recognizing and killing cancer cells.”

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Netherlands to Push EU to Suspend Israel Trade Deal but Won’t Recognize Palestinian State ‘At This Time’

Netherlands Foreign Affairs Minister Caspar Veldkamp addresses a press conference, in New Delhi on April 1, 2025. Photo: ANI Photo/Sanjay Sharma via Reuters Connect

The Netherlands is spearheading efforts to suspend the European Union-Israel trade agreement amid rising EU criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, while simultaneously refusing to recognize a Palestinian state, contrasting with other member states as international pressure mounts.

On Thursday, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp announced that the Netherlands will push the EU to suspend the trade component of the EU-Israel Association Agreement — a pact governing the EU’s political and economic ties with the Jewish state.

This latest anti-Israel initiative follows a recent EU-commissioned report accusing Israel of committing “indiscriminate attacks … starvation … torture … [and] apartheid” against Palestinians in Gaza during its military campaign against Hamas, an internationally designated terrorist group.

Following calls from a majority of EU member states for a formal investigation, this report built on Belgium’s recent decision to review Israel’s compliance with the trade agreement, a process initiated by the Netherlands and led by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

According to the report, “there are indications that Israel would be in breach of its human rights obligations” under the 25-year-old EU-Israel Association Agreement.

While the document acknowledges the reality of violence by Hamas, it states that this issue lies outside its scope — failing to address the Palestinian terrorist group’s role in sparking the current war with its bloody rampage across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Israeli officials have slammed the report as factually incorrect and morally flawed, noting that Hamas embeds its military infrastructure within civilian targets and Israel’s army takes extensive precautions to try and avoid civilian casualties.

In a Dutch parliamentary debate on Gaza on Thursday, Veldkamp also announced that the government would not recognize a Palestinian state for now — a position that stands in sharp contrast to the recent moves by several other EU member states to extend recognition.

“The Netherlands is not planning to recognize a Palestinian state at this time,” the Dutch diplomat said.

“This war has ceased to be a just war and is now leading to the erosion of Israel’s own security and identity,” he continued.

This latest decision goes against the position of several EU member states, including France, which has committed to recognizing Palestinian statehood in September.

The United Kingdom has likewise indicated it will do so unless Israel acts to ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and agrees to a ceasefire.

For its part, Germany said it was not planning to recognize a Palestinian state in the short term, and Italy argued that recognition must occur simultaneously with the recognition of Israel by the new entity.

Spain, Norway, Ireland, and Slovenia all recognized a Palestinian state last year.

Israel has been facing growing pressure from several EU member states seeking to undermine its defensive campaign against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.

On Thursday, European Commission Vice President Teresa Ribera strongly condemned Israel’s actions in the war-torn enclave, describing the situation as a “grave violation of human dignity.”

“What we are seeing is a concrete population being targeted, killed and condemned to starve to death,” Ribera told Politico. “If it is not genocide, it looks very much like the definition used to express its meaning.”

Until now, the European Commission has refrained from accusing Israel of genocide, but Ribera’s comments mark one of the strongest European condemnations since the outbreak of the war in Gaza.

She also called on the EU to take decisive action by considering the suspension of its trade agreement with Israel and the implementation of sanctions, while emphasizing that such measures would require unanimous approval from all member states.

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Graduate Student Unions Promoting Antisemitism, Reform Group Says

Students listen to a speech at a protest encampment at Stanford University in Stanford, California US, on April 26, 2024. Photo: Carlos Barria via Reuters Connect.

Higher-education-based unions controlled by United Electrical, Radio, and Machine Workers of America (UE) are rife with antisemitism and anti-Zionist discrimination, according to a new letter imploring the US Congress’s House Committee on Education and the Workforce to address the matter.

“Tracing its roots to communism in the 1930s, the UE is a radical, pro-Hamas labor union that has a long history of antisemitism,” the National Right to Work Foundation (NRTW), one of the US’s leading labor reform groups, wrote on July 30 in a message obtained by The Algemeiner. “The UE openly supports the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement, which is designed to cripple and destroy Israel economically. Today, the UE furthers its antisemitic agenda by unionizing graduate students on college campuses and using its exclusive representation powers to create a hostile environment for Jewish students. The hostile environment includes demanding compulsory dues to fund the UE’s abhorrent activities.”

NRTW went on to describe a litany of alleged injustices to which UE members subject Jewish student-employees in the US’s most prestigious institutions of higher education, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) to Cornell University. At MIT, the letter said, “union officers” aided a riotous group which illegally occupied a section of campus with a “Gaza Solidarity Encampment,” participating in the demonstration and even denying access to campus buildings. UE members at Stanford University, meanwhile, allegedly denied religious accommodations to Jewish students who requested exemption from union dues over that branch’s supporting the BDS movement. And Cornell University UE was accused of denying religious exemptions in several cases as well and followed up the rejection with an intrusive “questionnaire” which probed Jewish students for “legally-irrelevant information.”

The situation requires federal oversight and intervention, NRTW said, including Congress’s possibly clarifying that student-employees are not traditional employees and are therefore afforded protections under sections of the Civil Rights Act which apply to the campus.

“These continuing patterns of antisemitism are illegal, immoral, and must be stopped,” the letter continued. “We encourage you to do all that is in your power to investigate and help bring an end to the UE and its affiliates’ nonstop harassment and intimidation of Jewish students … The Trump administration can also use tools available to it under Title VI and Title VI of the Civil Rights Act against colleges who work with unions to create a hostile environment for Jewish students.”

July’s letter is not the first time NRTW has publicized alleged antisemitic abuse in unions representing higher education employees.

In 2024, it represented a group of six City University of New York (CUNY) professors, five of whom are Jewish, who sued to be “freed” from CUNY’s Professional Staff Congress (PSC-CUNY) over its passing a resolution during Israel’s May 2021 war with Hamas which declared solidarity with Palestinians and accused the Jewish state of ethnic cleansing, apartheid, and crimes against humanity. The group contested New York State’s “Taylor Law,” which it said chained the professors to the union’s “bargaining unit” and denied their right to freedom of speech and association by forcing them to be represented in negotiations by an organization they claim holds antisemitic views.

That same year, NRTW prevailed in a discrimination suit filed to exempt another cohort of Jewish MIT students from paying dues to the Graduate Student Union (GSU). The students had attempted to resist financially supporting GSU’s anti-Zionism, but the union bosses attempted to coerce their compliance, telling them that “no principles, teachings, or tenets of Judaism prohibit membership in or the payment of dues or fees” to the union.

“All Americans should have a right to protect their money from going to union bosses they don’t support, whether those objections are based on religion, politics, or any other reason,” NRTW said at the time.

Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.

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