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What Would ‘Total Victory’ Mean in Gaza?
Hamas leader and Oct. 7 pogrom mastermind Yahya Sinwar addressing a rally in Gaza. Photo: Reuters/braheem Abu Mustafa
In recent years, the concept of decisive victory has eroded in Israel, but October 7 brought it forcefully back to the center of the national security process. There are four types of victory: tactical (the ability of the IDF to negate the enemy’s fighting ability); operational (the ability of the operative echelon to dismantle the fighting system facing it, which is currently happening in Gaza); military strategic (the ability to remove the military threat posed by the enemy for many years to come); and grand, or national, strategic (military victory leads to a fundamental change in the geopolitical situation, like a peace treaty or the establishment of a new regime).
It seems that the “total victory” that is spoken about in the context of Gaza is a strategic victory, which, given the right interfaces among military, civil, and economic moves, can bring about a relatively calm security situation for a decade or more.
Victory and decision are one and the same. Over the years, attempts have been made to distinguish between them: for example, victory is tactical and decision is operational or strategic; or victory is the result and decision is the process. The word “victory” is more popular than the more professional word “decision,” but the two concepts overlap. The words used depend on the user’s needs and image.
Decision/victory is one of four elements of Israeli national security doctrine (along with early warning, deterrence, and defense), but in fact, it is the most important, because it is the only optimal outcome of a military campaign. In the last three decades, ever since Operation Accountability against Hezbollah in 1993, the theoretical discussion about the use of force in military operations has gone awry: deterrence has become the desired outcome of a military campaign, while decision/victory has essentially disappeared as the primary goal.
This pushing aside of victory and centralization of deterrence was largely due to the limitations the State of Israel and the IDF placed on themselves regarding the use of force. The goals of these limitations were to reduce casualties among IDF soldiers and avoid ground maneuvering as much as possible; reduce civilian losses as a result of missiles and rockets hitting the home front; rely on active defense to postpone a long-term solution to challenges; reduce enemy collateral damage by avoiding war-fighting within dense urban spaces; reduce international criticism of Israel over its military conduct; resist holding onto territories that are not part of the State of Israel (a lesson from the long stay in Lebanon); avoid the need to provide a civil response to the needs of a local enemy population and to incur the cost in terms of resources and attention that such an effort would entail; and more.
The IDF’s use of the term “victory” in recent years has not been aimed at victory/decision, which will be defined below, but at a significant improvement of deterrence.
Israel’s belief that it can rely on intermittent deterrence operations (“rounds”) and does not need a victory/decision was painfully shattered on October 7, 2023. It took a severe blow to national security to force a review of the security doctrine, and a rediscovery of the concept of victory/decision. While it was quickly understood that victory/decision is required in the current campaign and probably also in future campaigns, the need arose to define what a “victory” is.
Tactical victory is the ability of IDF units to annihilate enemy forces in battle and control territory in a way that negates the enemy’s ability to continue to fight in that area in a military framework. This kind of victory is the achievement towards which fighting is directed. This is not about the killing of all opposing military soldiers or terrorist operatives, but about breaking their ability to fight as an organization or a combatant framework. A tactical victory is a military action that is a means to achieving broader goals. It does not mean that all threats to our forces or to the home front have disappeared from the area where victory was achieved.
Operational victory is the ability of the IDF’s operative echelon, usually the regional command operating in the operational arena or front, to dismantle the fighting system facing it. In a cluster of battles (usually many dozens are required) in which tactical victories and control of terrain are achieved, the combined fighting force of the IDF manages to render the enemy’s military system dysfunctional — i.e., unable to achieve military strategic goals or to deny the IDF’s ability to achieve such goals.
The operational victory achieved in the Six-Day War forced Egypt and Syria into a military reconstruction process that led them to embark on another war — with improved opening conditions for a military surprise — six years later. In the current war, operational victory does not mean the threat of guerrilla warfare and terrorism has been removed from the Gaza Strip, but that Hamas’ ability to cause damage, especially to the Israeli civilian home front, is declining dramatically. It can be said that in most areas of the Gaza Strip, the IDF has already achieved an operational victory. Its completion depends on Israel’s decision to fight in the limited remaining areas (Rafah, some of the center camps).
Strategic victory is the removal of the enemy’s ability to pose a military threat in the operational arena for many years to come. This kind of victory is achieved by continuing military operations after the operational victory is achieved in order to weaken the enemy’s guerrilla warfare and terrorism capabilities until they either stop completely or are reduced to the scale of individual events. Strategic victory requires fundamental changes in the situation on the ground: the loss by guerrilla and terrorist operatives of the support of their population; isolation of the arena to prevent the insertion of new weapons and funding in a way that could allow guerrilla and terrorist operatives to recover; and a distancing of junior operatives or supporters from leading terrorist operatives that significantly impairs those leaders’ ability to command their juniors.
Such a change in the situation on the ground requires steps that go beyond military combat. These include rehabilitating the economic and civilian infrastructure for the population that is not engaged in terrorism; gaining the consent of neighboring countries and other partners to block weapons smuggling routes and money transfer channels into the territory; and the regulation of local government such that it can satisfy and develop the civilian and economic needs of the population. Such a strategic victory was achieved in 2004 at the end of the Second Intifada, and it resulted in relative quiet for about a decade.
The Grand Strategy victory, or victory on the level of national security strategy, is when a military victory leads to a fundamental change in the strategic posture of the State of Israel. This can stem from a desire among enemy leadership to fundamentally change its hostile attitude toward Israel and sign peace agreements with it that end the military conflict. Such a great victory — some would call it a mutual victory — was achieved with Egypt about five years after the Yom Kippur War.
Another type of grand victory is a situation in which the IDF controls territory following a military victory, and the failure of the previous regime in the war leads to regime change of a kind that creates fundamentally different national conduct. The classic historical examples of such a change are Germany and Japan after World War II. Israel won this kind of victory in the Golan Heights when it applied sovereignty over the territory in 1981.
Another form of grand victory stems from the complete dissolution of terrorist elements and the integration of their political movement into national mechanisms, as occurred in Malaya (part of Malaysia) in the 1950s, and with the Tamil rebels in Sri Lanka in 2009.
Grand victory cannot be achieved only by military means. It requires dialogue with local forces, deep and ongoing economic and civil rehabilitation, and permanent security control and policing mechanisms that create law and order and are acceptable to the population.
So what would “total victory” mean in the current Gaza conflict?
Tactical victory alone, as it is defined above, cannot lead to total victory.
Nor can an operational victory be “total.” While such a victory does mean a fundamental weakening of the enemy’s military capacity to do harm, it will, over time, be able to continue to fight guerrilla or terror warfare. The State of Israel strives to return all residents to the Gaza envelope region and create a situation of “absolute” security for them. This goal cannot be fulfilled solely by an operational victory.
Grand victory in Gaza would mean a years’ long process until the creation of fundamental change. During that period, the IDF would continue to eliminate guerrilla and terrorist operatives until they are completely subdued. A civilian authority would be established with an effective police force and the capacity for civil, economic, and law enforcement governance. The population would implement a basic approach of coexistence with Israel. Actions taken by the civilian authority toward this end, and its delicate coordination with Israel’s military activity, would receive international and regional support.
Such a process does not yet appear practical or feasible in Gaza, and even if it were, it is highly complex. It will be even more complex to connect Gaza to the civil and political processes in the West Bank, and ultimately to a political peace agreement that would lead to the establishment of a single Palestinian state entity in both areas simultaneously.
In light of all this, it seems that “total victory” in the Gaza conflict is most likely to come in the form of a strategic victory. This means the Israeli military will continue to fight guerrilla and terrorist operatives in the Strip alongside extensive activity by a local civilian government with an effective police force and international and regional economic and civil backing. This should lead in the coming years to the stabilization of the Gaza Strip without Hamas control over it.
In such a scenario, it will be possible to ensure relative quiet for a decade or more. However, it will not be possible to ensure quiet beyond that, since the absence of a fundamental change in the situation on the ground is likely to lead to a long-term erosion of security quiet and the re-creation of challenges to Israel. This is what happened in the West Bank after a decade of relative quiet, and in relatively stable Iraq after the withdrawal of the United States at the end of 2011.
Col. (Res.) Shai Shabtai is a senior researcher at the BESA Center and an expert in national security, strategic planning, and strategic communication. He is a strategist in the field of cyber security and a consultant to leading companies in Israel. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post What Would ‘Total Victory’ Mean in Gaza? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Jewish leaders welcome Canada’s decision to convene a second national antisemitism forum
Just one day after Israel’s president Isaac Herzog called on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to take “firm and decisive action” to combat the “intolerable wave of antisemitic attacks against the Canadian Jewish community”, the federal government announced on Dec. 20 it is convening a national forum on combating antisemitism.
Details are scarce, but the forum will take place in Ottawa in February 2025, under the direction of the justice department and the department of public safety. Political leaders from all three levels of government will be invited to discuss how to better coordinate the justice system and law enforcement and focus specifically on “the growing public safety threat of antisemitism,” according to a media release from the Department of Justice on Dec. 20.
“Canada has seen a troubling rise in antisemitic incidents, threats, and hate crimes,” the release stated. “The Government of Canada recognizes the urgent need for national leadership to ensure Jewish Canadians feel safe in their synagogues, schools, and communities.”
This announcement comes at the end of a turbulent week that saw Congregation Beth Tikvah Ahavat Shalom Nusach Hoari, west of Montreal, firebombed overnight on Dec. 18. It marked the second time since Oct. 7, 2023, that the Dollard-des-Ormeaux shul and adjacent Jewish school were targeted, as well as the West Island office of Montreal’s Federation CJA.
Then, on Dec. 20, in Toronto, the Bais Chaya Mushka girls’ school was attacked by unknown gunmen who opened fire at 2:30 a.m. into the front of the building. It was the third time this year that the school has come under fire. No one was injured in either incident.
Jewish leaders have been pressing Ottawa to do more than issue sympathetic statements condemning antisemitism. They want to address meaningful gaps in policing across jurisdictions, and to press police to better enforce existing laws. In 2023, there were 900 hate crimes against Jews reported to Canadian police; Jews were the target of 70 percent of all religion-motivated hate crimes.
However, many community leaders point out that there have been few prosecutions, and are decrying that many of the charges eventually get dropped. Weekly antisemitic and anti-Israel street protests continue in many Canadian cities. Canadian and U.S. federal authorities have recently foiled several terrorist plots involving suspects who were charged with planning attacks on Jews in Ottawa, New York and Richmond Hill, Ont.
Second antisemitism summit since 2021
The February forum is being convened less than three years after the first antisemitism summit was held in July 2021, in the wake of the brief Hamas-Israel war earlier that year. Canada’s first special envoy on antisemitism, Irwin Cotler, helped steer that day-long event, which was held virtually due to the COVID pandemic. The guest list was restricted at first to Liberal ministers and lawmakers.
Following that first summit, the Canadian heritage ministry promised a series of actions to combat antisemitism, and, as The CJN has reported, some of these have come into being:
- Boosting financial help for Jewish communities in the government’s next anti-racism action plan, which was launched earlier this year
- Adjustment of the Security Infrastructure Program, announced this year, to help Jewish places of worship, camps, schools and offices more easily afford to hire security guards, and fortify their security equipment
- Introduced an online hate bill, aimed at tackling hate speech on social media. It has not been adopted yet, due to concerns about infringement on free speech
- More money and staff for the work of the office of the special envoy to preserve Holocaust remembrance and combat antisemitism, including a new handbook on antisemitism, issued Oct. 31
- Funding to revamp the national Holocaust monument signage in Ottawa
- Hearings into antisemitism held on Parliament Hill, specifically looking at campus antisemitism
However, it has been more than a year since domestic antisemitism exploded in the wake of Oct. 7. The violence has cost the lives of more than 800 Israeli soldiers and thousands of Palestinians, including Hamas terrorists, in Gaza.
As of now, it appears that a Jewish Liberal MP from Montreal could play a key role in the summit. Rachel Bendayan, a lawyer who has represented the riding of Outremont since 2019, was named to the federal cabinet on Dec. 20. Aside from her new duties as minister of official languages, Bendayan was named associate minister of public safety.
While Bendayan’s office did not reply to The CJN by publication time, she said she was “honoured and humbled to be sworn in as Minister of Official Languages and Associate Minister of Public Safety,” in a post on social media. “Grateful to share this moment with my family. Ready to get to work.”
Her colleague Anthony Housefather took it as an important signal that Bendayan’s nomination came on the same day as the antisemitism forum announcement.
In July, Housefather, who has since repeatedly called for the Prime Minister to resign, was named special advisor to Trudeau on matters concerning the Jewish community and antisemitism. Housefather has been lobbying for this new summit, behind the scenes and publicly, for months.
“I will work very hard at this forum to push for immediate action and solutions across the levels of government and am gratified that my friend and colleague Rachel Bendayan is the new Associate Minister of Public Safety as her position will allow the Jewish community voice to be even more prominent in giving priority to the issue of anti-Jewish hate,” Housefather said in a statement to The CJN.
Housefather and the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs have been working with Special Envoy Deborah Lyons to get this new summit approved. As The CJN reported on Dec. 11, calls for the summit were growing louder in recent weeks.
However, according to Richard Marceau, a CIJA vice-president, a summit of words was meaningless unless such a forum focused specifically on policing, law enforcement and prosecutions.
“The forum’s ultimate value will be determined only by the concrete results that come from it,” said Marceau, adding that the values of all Canadians are at stake, not just for Jewish Canadians.
“Police need more resources and specialized training. Laws need to be enforced, charges need to be laid, and perpetrators must be fully prosecuted to end the domination of our streets by extremists,” he said. “And the glorification of terrorism must finally be made a criminal offence in this country. Through the Forum, we will push for these and other concrete measures—but what we won’t accept are photo ops and platitudes. Action to protect our community and all Canadians is long overdue.”
Ahead of Friday’s summit announcement, the other Canadian Jewish member of the federal cabinet, Ya’ara Saks, the minister of mental health and addictions, stood in solidarity outside the site of the Bais Chaya Mushka school in North York after it was shot at.
Saks told a media conference that no Jewish girl, including her own daughters, should have to wake up every morning and ask whether it is safe to go to school—although she didn’t give away any hints that such a summit announcement was imminent.
“The community has been very clear in what needs to be done,” Saks said. “We need all hands on deck, all heads coming together to navigate forward collectively, collaboratively and with one unified voice to ensure that the Jewish community stays safe.
“I am hopeful that we will all get together and do the right thing on behalf of the Jewish community.”
While full details of the new summit have not been released, its fate could be in jeopardy even before it begins.
Although Bendayan and the other cabinet ministers were sworn in officially on Friday, it is unclear how long the Liberal government will remain in power. Efforts are underway by the Opposition Conservatives and New Democrats to topple the government soon, either through a non-confidence motion when Parliament reconvenes on Jan. 27 or sooner. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is asking the governor general to force Parliament to come back before sooner than Jan. 27.
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UN Extends Peacekeeping Mission Between Syria and Golan Heights
Fences are seen on the ceasefire line between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights, March 25, 2019. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
The United Nations Security Council on Friday extended a long-running peacekeeping mission between Syria and the Israeli Golan Heights for six months and expressed concern that military activities in the area could escalate tensions.
Since a lightning rebel offensive ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad earlier this month, Israeli troops have moved into the demilitarised zone – created after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war – that is patrolled by the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).
Israeli officials have described the move as a limited and temporary measure to ensure the security of Israel‘s borders but have given no indication of when the troops might be withdrawn.
In the resolution adopted on Friday, the Security Council stressed “that both parties must abide by the terms of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement between Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic and scrupulously observe the ceasefire.”
It expressed concern that “the ongoing military activities conducted by any actor in the area of separation continue to have the potential to escalate tensions between Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic, jeopardize the ceasefire between the two countries, and pose a risk to the local civilian population and United Nations personnel on the ground.”
Armed forces from Israel and Syria are not allowed in the demilitarized zone – a 400-square-km (155-square-mile) “Area of Separation” – under the ceasefire arrangement.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday: “Let me be clear: There should be no military forces in the area of separation other than U.N. peacekeepers – period.” He also said Israeli airstrikes on Syria were violations of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and “must stop.”
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Shots fired at Bais Chaya Mushka girls school for the third time this year
Bais Chaya Mushka, an elementary girls’ school in Toronto, was shot at early in the morning on Dec. 20, the third time the school has been targeted in the past seven months.
Shots were fired at the school in May and then again in October, on Yom Kippur.
Officers from Toronto Police Service’s 32 Division responded to reports of gunfire to discover six bullet holes in the building’s exterior. No one was inside the school at the time and no injuries were reported.
“It’s incredibly unfortunate that I stand here to discuss yet another shooting at this school,” Supt. Paul MacIntyre of the Organized Crime Enforcement Unit said during a press conference outside the school Friday morning.
Police have made progress in previous incidents at the school, MacIntyre said, stating that two people, a man and a youth, were arrested in connection with the October shooting, and a firearm was recovered. Investigators are now working to determine whether the latest attack is connected to those earlier cases.
“We’ve solved the second case, and the same teams are now working on this investigation,” he said. “With just a few days before Hanukkah, we know how deeply disturbing this is to the Jewish community. We will leave no stone unturned.”
Insp. Roger Desrochers of the Hate Crime Unit said hate crimes require “careful investigation” to determine whether they meet the threshold for charges under the Criminal Code.
“These matters are challenging. Not all offensive actions meet the threshold for criminal charges, and each case must be weighed carefully,” Desrochers said during the presser on Friday afternoon.
Rabbi Yaakov Vidal, principal of the school, said it was challenging to inform parents about the third shooting this year.
“It’s very, very difficult. It’s very, very hard to be woken up in the middle of the night with such news—and it’s now the third time,” Rabbi Vidal said at a press conference outside the school.
“We were not sure if we were able to have school here, due to the police investigation, then we were told it was possible to have school here. I was actually looking for a different location… Parents are very, very frustrated, very afraid to send their kids to school. I am aware of a few that did not send their kids to school today. We hope they once again feel safe to do so every single day, as they deserve.
The school had full-time security during the day when students were present, but overnight security was too expensive, Rabbi Vidal said. “We may have to do this at this point. We’ll have to see what our next step is.”
The recent violence has raised questions about police efforts to protect Jewish institutions. MacIntyre said police have ramped up patrols in recent months under initiatives like Project Resolute but emphasized that officers are also working to balance broader community safety concerns.
When asked whether Jewish institutions should consider armed private security, MacIntyre said he does not support the idea, adding, “We are here to support the community and will continue providing all available resources to ensure their safety.”
Parents picking up their daughters at school expressed both their concern and their determination as the school dealt with a third shooting.
One mother was on the verge of tears as she discussed her decision to send her child to school this morning.
“I don’t even know what to think anymore. It’s the third time. The cops are here, so I feel safe today, but the rest of the time I don’t feel safe,” she said. “These are little girls they’re trying to scare. These idiots should be thrown in jail, but they can’t seem to catch them.”
Her daughter, who suffers from anxiety now, made a grim joke about how easy it is to attack her school, the mother said. “This is my eight year old thinking this. She doesn’t watch violent things.”
Rabbi Yosef Hecht, a Chabad rabbi in Aurora, said he dropped off his two daughters at school this morning “with a very heavy heart,” especially since it was the third shooting.
“Did they catch the people? Do they know who’s behind this? Is it larger than what they are really telling us, is there something larger that we’re not aware of yet?” he asked.
But despite his concerns, he didn’t hesitate to send his children to school. “I felt the school did a good job repairing it temporarily. It shows that, no matter what, we are going to be resolute, strong, and this will just make us stronger and more proud.”
Local leaders call for action
At a press conference earlier in the day, politicians and leaders of the Jewish community were on hand to condemn the shooting and press all levels of government for more action.
The shooting came two days after a Montreal synagogue was firebombed for the second time since Oct. 7, 2023, the date of the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel and the start of the war in Gaza.
“There are common-sense things that our leaders can do to deal with this problem right away. We need funding for police to get the job done and we need to put a stop to the extremism in our streets that’s inciting this violence. The time for our leaders to speak, to tweet, is over. Now it’s time for them to take action,” said Noah Shack, interim president of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs.
“The fact is, this isn’t an isolated activity, whether it’s a synagogue being firebombed in Montreal or this school here that continues to suffer from gunfire in an effort to intimidate the girls that are here. There should be no daylight between the mayor of this city, the police of this city and the community that is facing this kind of threat day in and day out,” Shack said.
City councillor James Pasternak said Toronto police are stretched thin and need support from provincial police forces and the RCMP, and called for closer ties between elected officials and police forces.
“The police act forbids elected officials from directing police operations but the police act doesn’t stop us from nuance. We have to back up our police services, give them the political will to stop these roving mobs… that are inciting some of the violence that we are seeing in this neighbourhood and across the land,” he said.
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow, who said in a statement that the shooting was “unacceptable,” was criticized by some Jewish community leaders for her weak stance on the antisemitism that has escalated in the city.
“Mayor Olivia Chow’s continued platitudes in response to antisemitic hate in Toronto ring hollow in the face of her permissive approach to this growing problem,” B’nai Brith Canada stated on social media.
“She has enabled an environment where such acts are allowed to flourish. Banal condemnations without concrete actions leave the Jewish community vulnerable and unsafe.”
Enough is enough. Antisemitism and antisemitic attacks have no place in Toronto.
The latest shooting at the Bais Chaya Mushka Elementary School is unacceptable. Once again students, families, and neighbours are waking up to safety concerns.
My office has been in contact with…
— Mayor Olivia Chow (@MayorOliviaChow) December 20, 2024
Michael Levitt, a former Liberal MP and now the president of the Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center, who attended the press conference, also laid responsibility on Chow.
“We have not seen the mayor of the city draw a line through this type of activity and come out and be strong enough,” he said. “Sure, when shots are fired, but what about when all the other incidents have gone on? We need our mayor take a stand with the Jewish community and make it clear that keeping the Jewish community safe is a priority.”
MP Ya’ara Saks appeared at the press conference to expressed her support for the Jewish community. She pushed back on the suggestion that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had not taken the issue seriously enough, pointing to increased funding for federal infrastructure grants, which can now be used for a wider variety of security resources.
This afternoon, the federal government also announced that a second national summit on antisemitism would be convened in February.
The post Shots fired at Bais Chaya Mushka girls school for the third time this year appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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