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Why IDF Intelligence Needs to Be Better — And How to Improve It
Troops from the IDF’s 98th Division operating in Jabalia, the northern Gaza Strip, May 2024. Photo: Israel Defense Forces.
The IDF’s current mechanism for determining and providing intelligence assessments rigidifies the thinking of intelligence analysts, and increases the risk that they will not recognize changes in the behavioral patterns of the adversary that affect the predictive ability and relevance of the forecast. Providing assessments should be the beginning of the process, not the end. A structured, open, and ongoing discussion of an assessment can make both the process and the product more dynamic in the face of changing conditions.
The current intelligence assessment process increases the risk of forecast error
At the core of intelligence assessment stands the forecast. If the adversary’s behavioral dynamics form a linear regression — that is, they adhere to familiar patterns — then it is possible to draw a straight line from the present to the future and score high prediction levels (90% or better). This applies to most current and tactical engagements of intelligence. Assessment based on familiar patterns, combined with reasonable risk analysis, makes intelligence an effective support tool for political and operational decision-making.
Difficulties arise when the adversary’s behavior diverges from the expected. In this situation, the ability to predict decreases significantly; and the risk grows that the intelligence forecast will lead to decisions that do not correspond to reality. In such a situation, decision-makers must rely to a greater degree on risk management.
It is a serious problem when familiar patterns are disrupted and can no longer serve as a basis for assessment. To make matters worse, limitations on human thinking make it difficult for analysts to identify this problem when it arises. This increases the risk that intelligence predictions will actually serve the enemy, because our side will make decisions based on those predictions that the enemy is prepared to disrupt, circumvent, or even exploit.
Once an intelligence assessment has been formulated, it becomes an inflexible entity. Predictions about the future become a fixed reality (a “concept”) about the present. After the assessment is given to the client (the decision-maker, the commander), it becomes even more fixed among intelligence analysts. This is in order to prevent situations that are perceived as unprofessional, including changing the assessment as a result of dynamics with the client or frequently updating the assessment in a way that makes it difficult for the decision-maker to form policy decisions.
Because intelligence assessments tend to set like concrete after they have been turned over to the client, intelligence analysts generally shift their focus to the implications of the assessment for intelligence gathering, assimilating the assessment among the clients, and providing recommendations for policy and action stemming from it. All this activity diverts focus away from the implications of the assessment for the intelligence assessment process itself.
The problem can be summarized as follows: The mechanism for determining and providing intelligence assessments rigidifies the thinking of intelligence analysts, and increases the risk that they will not recognize changes in the behavioral patterns of the adversary that affect the predictive ability and relevance of the forecast.
A solution: Assessment as an ongoing process
To overcome this problem, the providing of an assessment should be viewed as the beginning of the process, not the end. To paraphrase Eisenhower on military planning, “Assessment is everything and nothing”. Intelligence analysts should remain within the assessment process even after providing it to the client.
What would this mean in practice? It would mean examining the assessment against many parameters and continuing to do so systematically, even after the assessment has been submitted. Discussions about the assessment should be open, transparent, and structured for the participation of both the intelligence analysts and the clients so that gaps in the forecast can be identified early.
Parameters for the ongoing review of an assessment can include:
- Verification and validity: These are recognized existing parameters within which the analyst examines whether developments with the subject strengthen or weaken the assessment. As we have seen many times, these criteria are the first victims of cognitive biases that make it difficult for the analyst to detach himself from the assessment.
- Evaluation context: What circumstances underlying the prediction are connected not to the adversary but to other circles, like the adversary’s partners, regional factors, international factors, and the internal context? Variations in the broader circumstances can affect the validity of the evaluation, even if no apparent change is identified in the subject.
- Assessment levels: If a strategic early warning has been issued, what are its implications for operational and tactical early warnings, and how does the sequence of forecasting change between levels? Does a sequence of tactical early warnings indicate a strategic early warning? Are the actions of the adversary consistent with its policy? What is the meaning of continuity or lack of continuity in the approach between different levels?
- Projection: This refers to the projection of an assessment of a particular issue onto assessments of other issues and topics. For example, is the predicted behavior of an adversary likely to affect the behavior of one of his allies? Is the predicted weakening of an adversary likely to lead to a deeper and broader change in other circles?
- Impact of responding to opportunities and risks: If the assessment indicates an opportunity, what are the implications of acting or not acting in response to it? Does inaction in response to the opportunity influence the forecast? And conversely, with regard to risks: If the assessment indicates a risk, is it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In other words, would caution in the face of the risk lead to its realization?
- Meaning of continuity or change: If the forecast indicates continuity, what are the indications if change in fact occurs? If the forecast indicates change, what needs to happen so that change does not materialize?
- The price of error: How does the cost of a prediction error affect the validity of the assessment? Isn’t the validity of a prediction that excludes extreme scenarios (military attack, nuclear weapons proliferation, regime collapse) weakened by the heavy cost of an error?
- Use of the assessment: What is the intelligence assessment being used for? If it is not used, or if, in the intelligence analysts’ view, its use is contrary to its content, what does that say about the assessment itself and its logic and clarity?
- Realization: If the prediction comes to pass, why did it do so? Did this show that the estimate was correct, or was it merely a coincidence? Conversely, does the failure of a prediction necessarily indicate that the estimate was incorrect?
Continuous engagement in the assessment process will improve its quality
A structured, open, and ongoing discussion of an assessment during and after its construction can free intelligence analysts from fixations, create more dynamism in the process and product, and improve and refine the product over time and in the face of changing conditions. This takes broader contexts than the adversary himself into account. It is not about changing estimates due to external influences. Rather, it is about developing a more comprehensive, broad, and rich view of the act of intelligence assessment.
The products of such an improvement could be more accurate and nuanced assessments, constant examination of the validity of assessments, continuous engagement with lower probability scenarios and not neglecting them after an assessment has been submitted, and expanding the potential for identifying problems in assessments as a result of more time spent on them.
Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai is a senior researcher at the BESA Center and an expert in national security, strategic planning, and strategic communication. He is a cyber security strategist and a consultant to leading companies in Israel. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Kosher Restaurant in Madrid Targeted in Arson Attempt
People demonstrate in the city of Santander, Spain, under the motto ‘Let’s stop the genocide in Gaza,’ on Jan. 20, 2024. Photo: Joaquin Gomez Sastre/NurPhoto via Reuters Connect
A kosher restaurant in central Madrid was targeted in an attempted arson attack, prompting a police investigation, as Spain continues to face a rise in antisemitic incidents since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in 2023.
On Tuesday night, an unknown individual entered the Rimmon Kosher restaurant in the Spanish capital and “sprayed a liquid with a strong gasoline smell on the entrance, intending to set fire and burn down the premises,” according to a joint statement from the Jewish Community of Madrid (CJM) and the Federation of Jewish Communities of Spain (FCJE).
Before the police arrived, the attacker fled the scene. However, the restaurant staff’s quick response prevented the fire from being lit.
In a press release on Wednesday, CJM and FCJE condemned the foiled attack as “an antisemitic act aimed at causing harm, targeting public spaces frequented by the Jewish community, and terrorizing its members.”
“This is an act driven by hatred, with a vile and brutal intent, that threatens coexistence, freedom, and tolerance — values that have always defined the citizens of Madrid,” the statement continued.
Comunicado de la Comunidad Judía de Madrid ante el intento de incendio del restaurante Rimmon Kosher de Madrid. pic.twitter.com/SESEm9J8ay
— Comunidad Judía de Madrid (@cjm_es) March 5, 2025
As of now, a police investigation is underway, with authorities focused on tracking down the perpetrator and determining the motive behind their actions.
“We hope the perpetrator’s identity will be determined soon and that this person will be arrested quickly,” CJM and FCJE addedt. “In the meantime, we are ready to cooperate with the authorities and the restaurant owners in any way needed.”
The Israeli Embassy in Spain also condemned Tuesday’s attack on the kosher restaurant, near the main synagogue, and expressed full support for the staff, owners, and customers of the establishment, as well as solidarity with the Jewish community of Madrid.
“We are facing yet another case that shows how hate-inciting rhetoric leads to violence,” the embassy posted on X/Twitter. “We fully trust that the authorities will act decisively to prevent violent and antisemitic incidents from recurring in Spain.”
La Embajada de Israel en España condena enérgicamente el ataque perpetrado contra un restaurante casher en Madrid, próximo a la sinagoga principal.
Expresamos nuestro total apoyo al personal, propietarios y clientes del establecimiento, así como nuestra solidaridad con la… pic.twitter.com/4jTqZLq6CH
— Israel en España
(@IsraelinSpain) March 5, 2025
Since Hamas started the Gaza war with its invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Spain has been a fierce critic of the Jewish state.
In the aftermath of the Oct. 7 atrocities, Spain halted arms shipments from its own defense companies to Israel and launched a diplomatic campaign to curb the country’s military response. At the same time, several Spanish ministers in the country’s left-wing coalition government issued pro-Hamas statements and called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, with some falsely accusing Israel of “genocide.”
More recently, Spanish officials said they would not allow ships carrying arms for Israel to stop at its ports. In response, the US Federal Maritime Commission opened an investigation into whether Spain, a NATO ally, has been denying port entry to cargo vessels reportedly transporting US weapons to Jerusalem.
Additionally, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez urged other members of the European Union to suspend the bloc’s free trade agreement with Israel over its military campaigns against Hamas in Gaza and the terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In May, Spain officially recognized a Palestinian state, claiming the move was accelerated by the Israel-Hamas war and would help foster a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israeli officials described the decision as a “reward for terrorism.”
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‘Failure’: Larry Summers Slams Harvard University’s Response to Campus Antisemitism
Demonstrators take part in an “Emergency Rally: Stand With Palestinians Under Siege in Gaza,” amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, US, Oct. 14, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Brian Snyder
Former Harvard University president Larry Summers said on Monday that the administration’s response to campus antisemitism remains unsatisfactory, echoing the concerns of Jewish civil rights activists who continue to demand progress from the Ivy League institution.
“Harvard continues its failure to effectively address antisemitism,” Summers posted on the X/Twitter social media platform. “Despite [current Harvard president Alan Garber’s] clear and strong personal moral commitment, he has lacked the will and/or leverage to effect the necessary large-scale change, and the Corporation has been ineffectual.”
The Harvard Corporation is the university’s highest governing body.
Summers went on to list several outrages to which Harvard has subjected its Jewish and pro-Israel students and faculty during this academic year — including the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (CMES) holding a panel on Israel’s military actions against terrorist groups in Lebanon in which antisemitic tropes were promoted, Dean Marla Frederick’s denouncing Israel’s founding as the nakba, and the university’s antisemitism task force keeping a professor who has downplayed the severity of Jew-hatred on campus as one of its members.
Summers noted as well that Harvard’s antisemitism task force, which a US federal lawmaker accused of being a farce contrived to manipulate the public’s opinion of the university, has not yet issued a final report containing its findings or recommendations for new policies for dealing with the issue despite having convened over a year ago.
“It is by the way shocking, and I think outrageous, that months after Harvard’s abject failures after Oct. 7, the task force hasn’t even reached a conclusion,” Summers continued. “Nor is there yet a basis for confidence that disruptions will be met with disciplinary consequences, especially in a number of professional schools that are redoubts of the far left.”
Harvard continues its failure to effectively address antisemitism.
Despite President Garber’s clear and strong personal moral commitment, he has lacked the will and/or leverage to effect the necessary large scale change, and the Corporation has been ineffectual.
— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) March 4, 2025
Summers’ statements come amid a challenging moment in the history of Harvard University, America’s oldest and arguably most prestigous institution of higher education. Since Hamas’s invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Harvard has seen its law school student government issue a resolution which falsely accused Israel of genocide; its students quote terrorists during an “Apartheid Week” event held in April; and dozens of its students and faculty participated in an illegal pro-Hamas encampment attended by members of a group that had shared an antisemitic cartoon. Additionally, many Harvard students openly cheered Hamas’s Oct. 7 atrocities, which included sexual assault and child abduction, and a mob led by the president of the prestigious Harvard Law Review followed, surrounded, and intimidated a Jewish student, screaming “Shame! Shame! Shame!” into his ears.
After these incidents and more, Harvard fought tooth and nail to discredit lawsuits which alleged that its response to campus antisemitism amounted to the enabling of discriminatory behavior which violates federal civil rights law. Harvard eventually settled multiple complaints out of court, but at least one plaintiff, Harvard alumnus Shabbos Kestenbaum, refused to be a party to the agreements, arguing that they allowed the university to evade accountability for its alleged inaction.
Summers and Kestenbaum aren’t Harvard’s only critics in the Jewish community. On Monday, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) issued a “Campus Report Card” in which Harvard’s antisemitism policies were given a “C” grade. ADL chief executive officer Jonathan Greenblatt said in a statement accompanying the report that every school assessed by the organization should have received an “A.”
“I said it last year, and I’ll say it again: every single campus should get an ‘A.’ This isn’t a high bar — this should be standard,” Greenblatt explained. “While many campuses have improved in ways that are encouraging and commendable, Jewish students still do not feel safe or included on too many campuses. The progress we’ve seen is evidence that change is possible — all university leaders should focus on addressing these very real challenges with real action.”
US President Donald Trump’s administration has vowed to crack down on campus antisemitism and pro-Hamas activity across the US.
In January, he issued a highly anticipated executive order aimed at combating campus antisemitism and holding pro-terror extremists accountable for the harassment of Jewish students, fulfilling a promise he made while campaigning for a second term in office.
Continuing work started during his first administration — when Trump issued Executive Order 13899 to ensure that civil rights law apply equally Jews — the “Additional Measures to Combat Antisemitism” calls for “using all appropriate legal tools to prosecute, remove, or otherwise … hold to account perpetrators of unlawful antisemitic harassment and violence.” The order also requires each government agency to write a report explaining how it can be of help in carrying out its enforcement.
Additionally, it initiates a full review of the explosion of campus antisemitism on US colleges across the country after Oct. 7, 2023, a convulsive moment in American history to which the previous presidential administration struggled to respond during the final year and a half of its tenure.
On Tuesday, Trump vowed to suspend federal funding to any educational institution that refuses to quell riotous demonstrations, a punitive measure which would fulfill his administration’s pledge to crack down on campus antisemitism and the pro-Hamas activists fostering it.
“All federal funding will stop for any college, school, or university that allows illegal protests,” Trump said in a statement posted on Truth Social, the social media platform he founded in 2022. “Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on the crime, arrested.”
He continued, “No masks! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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Second Australian Nurse Charged Over Viral Video Threatening to Kill Israeli Patients
Members of the Jewish community and supporters gather for a protest rally against rising antisemitism at Martin Place in Sydney, Jan. 21, 2025. Photo: AAP Image/Steven Saphore via Reuters Connect
An Australian nurse working in a Sydney hospital has been arrested and charged after a viral video captured him making threats, stating he would refuse to treat Israeli patients and instead kill them.
This latest legal step comes as law enforcement works to combat a surge in antisemitic incidents across Australia, which the country’s spy chief has called his agency’s top priority.
After the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel, several Jewish sites in Australia have been relentlessly targeted with vandalism and even arson, especially in the past few months. In response, a New South Wales (NSW) police task force, Strike Force Pearl, was established to address the wave of hate crimes and rising antisemitism.
On Tuesday night, 27-year-old Ahmed Rashid Nadir was arrested and charged with federal offenses, including using a carriage service to menace, harass, or cause offense, as well as possession of a prohibited drug, NSW Police said in a statement.
The arrest follows an incident at Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital in Sydney, in which Nadir and his fellow nurse, Sarah Abu Lebdeh, were seen in an online video posing as doctors and making inflammatory statements during a night-shift discussion with Israeli influencer Max Veifer.
The footage, which circulated widely, showed Lebdeh stating she would refuse to treat an Israeli patient and instead kill them, while Nadir used a throat-slitting gesture and claimed to have already killed many.
“It’s Palestine’s country, not your country, you piece of s—t,” Lebdeh told Veifer.
“One day your time will come, and you will die the most disgusting death,” she added in a sentence riddled with obscenities.
Last week, 26-year-old Lebdeh was arrested and charged with similar federal offenses, including threatening violence against a group and using a carriage service to threaten, menace, and harass, with a conviction potentially leading to up to 22 years in prison.
After reviewing patient records, the hospital found no evidence that Lebdeh or Nadir had harmed patients.
NSW’s Health Minister Ryan Park confirmed that both nurses had been suspended and would be permanently barred from employment within the state’s health system.
According to the NSW Police statement, both Lebdeh and Nadir were released on bail and are set to appear in court on March 19. Lebdeh has been prohibited from leaving Australia and using social media while her case proceeds.
The incident is one of the latest in a surge of antisemitic acts across Australia since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza in October 2023, with Jewish institutions targeted in arson attacks and businesses defaced.
Law enforcement in Sydney and Melbourne, home to the majority of Australia’s Jewish population, is actively investigating hate crimes, including the recent discovery of a trailer containing explosives and a list of potential Jewish targets.
Since the formation of Strike Force Pearl, the task force to combat antisemitism, in December, NSW Police Commissioner Karen Webb reported that 15 people have been arrested, and 78 charges have been filed.
“I must commend the work Strike Force Pearl detectives are doing to investigate, charge, and put these individuals before the courts,” Webb said in a statement. “There is a tremendous amount of dedication and hard work going into all these investigations.”
Last month, dozens of Australia’s leading Muslim groups and individuals defended the two nurses, accusing their critics of “hypocrisy” and “double standards and moral manipulation” in an open letter.
“This statement is not about defending inappropriate remarks. It is about pushing back against the double standards and moral manipulation at play while the mass killing of our brothers and sisters in Gaza is met with silence, dismissal, or complicity,” the letter said.
In response to the ongoing spike in antisemitism, Australia passed a new slate of hate crime laws last month which would, among other measures, imprison those who make terror threats or perform Nazi salutes.
In a Senate committee hearing last week, Mike Burgess, the director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO), the country’s domestic intelligence agency, said that antisemitism is now the agency’s top priority.
“In terms of threats to life, [antisemitism is] my agency’s number one priority because of the weight of incidents we’re seeing play out in this country,” Burgess told the Senate. “Antisemitism and significant antisemitism acts are prominent in our investigation caseload at this point in time.”
In a recent 2025 threat assessment declassified by ASIO, Burgess warned that the surge in antisemitic attacks across Australia could escalate, as extremists are increasingly self-radicalizing and “choose their own adventure” toward potential terrorist activity.
“Threats transitioned from harassment and intimidation to specific targeting of Jewish communities, places of worship, and prominent figures,” he said. “I am concerned these attacks have not yet plateaued.”
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