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Why the Hezbollah Ceasefire Is a Strategic Gamble for Israel
Smoke billows after an Israeli Air Force air strike in southern Lebanon village, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, Oct. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jim Urquhar
One key aspect of the Israeli gamble on a ceasefire arrangement with Hezbollah on the northern front seems to be a set of significant imminent improvements of its air defense systems. The arrival of the Iron Beam laser system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems together with Elbit, marks a revolutionary advancement in Israel’s defensive arsenal. Integrated directly into the existing Iron Dome batteries, which have been operational since 2011, the Iron Beam uses a 100-kilowatt laser to intercept rockets, mortar shells, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and missiles — at the speed of light.
One of the most compelling advantages of the Iron Beam is its cost-effectiveness. Each laser shot costs only a few dollars — the price of the electricity required — compared to approximately $50,000 for each Tamir interceptor missile used by the Iron Dome. This economic efficiency disrupts the financial advantage previously held by terrorists firing rockets and UAVs. The Iron Beam not only reduces operational costs but also does not require ammunition replenishment, ensuring continuous protection.
Furthermore, the laser system offers rapid response capabilities, striking targets within seconds – much faster than kinetic interceptors. If it can be established that the Iron Beam destroys incoming threats before they cross into Israeli air space, this could enable the Israeli Air Force and IDF Home Front Command to decrease the number of disruptive rocket alerts in the future.
While the Iron Beam has a range of about eight to ten kilometers and can engage only one threat at a time, it complements the Iron Dome, which can intercept multiple threats simultaneously over longer distances. The combination of these systems enhances Israel’s layered defense strategy.
This advancement has opened the door for future developments, including mobile ground-based lasers to protect maneuvering military units and airborne systems capable of intercepting threats above cloud cover over enemy territory. An aerial laser system being developed by Elbit has already demonstrated success. In 2021, this system downed UAVs while flying at an altitude of 3,000 feet. If development goes according to plan, the airborne laser is expected to have an interception range of approximately 20 kilometers.
In addition to the Iron Beam, the Israel Defense Forces has been testing radar-guided Vulcan cannons. The M61 Vulcan cannon, capable of firing around 6,000 rounds per minute and mounted on armored personnel carriers, aims to counter the growing threat of UAVs. Hezbollah has been leveraging its proximity to Israel to exploit detection loopholes, flying UAVs at low altitudes from southern Lebanese valleys to evade existing interception systems like the Iron Dome. The Vulcan cannons are expected to bolster Israel’s short-range air defense, protecting sensitive locations and filling gaps in current capabilities.
On the offensive front, Israel is determined to capitalize on its recent achievements against Hezbollah by preserving the new security reality in northern Israel. This involves an active policy of precise airstrikes and targeted ground operations designed to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing a foothold in southern Lebanon, including preventing Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons from trying to rebuild invasion bases in southern Lebanese Shiite villages and replenishing its rocket arsenal. By continuously disrupting Iranian supply routes to Hezbollah — be they land corridors, air smuggling operations, or maritime channels from Syria and Lebanese ports—Israel aims to hinder Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its arsenal and terror infrastructure.
A critical aspect of this strategy is American recognition of Israel’s right to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which effectively gives the resolution “teeth” for the first time. Recognizing that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been totally unable to implement the resolution, Israel is committed to take unilateral action to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence if necessary — and reserve its right to operational freedom.
Adapting tactics from other arenas, the IDF would aim, under this scenario, to “mow the lawn” — meaning periodic, intelligence-driven operations to disrupt hostile activities and prevent force build-up.
However, this proactive stance, while welcome, presents a paradox. While Israel’s enforcement actions would be designed to prevent long-term security threats from reappearing, they may also lead Hezbollah to retaliate, potentially leading to escalation and renewed rocket fire in the north within a short time. Hezbollah still retains residual firepower capabilities, despite an assessment that more than 80% of its arsenal has been destroyed. Assertive future Israeli operations could trigger attacks on northern Israeli communities.
This conundrum necessitates careful consideration by the Israeli cabinet and IDF leadership. Should future critical action to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament instigate the very hostilities it aims to avoid, it will likely be necessary to return to higher intensity conflict. However, this is not an inevitable scenario in the near term.
By decisively weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities and preventing its return to southern Lebanon, Israel can reshape the security landscape in its favor. This will require not only military action but also the leveraging of technological defensive advancements to maintain a strategic edge. The successful integration of systems like the Iron Beam and Vulcan cannons represents a significant step toward neutralizing emerging threats such as UAVs, which Hezbollah employed over the course of the past year to target sensitive locations in attacks that led to painful casualties.
Israel’s strategic “bet” on establishing a new reality in Lebanon will likely evolve into a complex and multifaceted endeavor. By enhancing its defensive capabilities with cutting-edge technologies, and by adopting proactive offensive measures to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence, Israel aims to secure its northern border and protect its citizens. Yet this strategy must navigate the paradox of enforcement potentially leading to escalation. Future attempts by Hezbollah and Iran to rebuild are a certainty so long as the radical Shiite Islamic Republic is led by its current jihadist regime.
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane’s Defense Weekly and JNS.org. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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US Immigration Judge Rules Palestinian Columbia Student Khalil Can Be Deported
Mahmoud Khalil speaks to members of media about the Revolt for Rafah encampment at Columbia University during the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza, in New York City, US, June 1, 2024. Photo: Jeenah Moon via Reuters Connect
A US immigration judge ruled on Friday that Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil can be deported, allowing President Donald Trump’s administration to proceed with its effort to remove the Columbia University student from the United States a month after his arrest in New York City.
The ruling by Judge Jamee Comans of the LaSalle Immigration Court in Louisiana was not a final determination of Khalil’s fate. But it represented a significant victory for the Republican president in his efforts to deport foreign pro-Palestinian students who are in the United States legally and, like Khalil, have not been charged with any crime.
Citing the 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act, Trump-appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio determined last month that Khalil could harm American foreign policy interests and should be deported for his “otherwise lawful” speech and activism.
Comans said that she did not have the authority to overrule a secretary of state. The judge denied a motion by Khalil’s lawyers to subpoena Rubio and question him about the “reasonable grounds” he had for his determination under the 1952 law.
The judge’s decision came after a combative 90-minute hearing held in a court located inside a jail complex for immigrants surrounded by double-fenced razor wire run by private government contractors in rural Louisiana.
Khalil, a prominent figure in the anti-Israel student protest movement that has roiled Columbia’s New York City campus, was born in a Palestinian refugee camp in Syria, holds Algerian citizenship and became a US lawful permanent resident last year. Khalil’s wife is a US citizen.
For now, Khalil remains in the Louisiana jail where federal authorities transferred him after his March 8 arrest at his Columbia University apartment building some 1,200 miles (1,930 km) away. Comans gave Khalil’s lawyers until April 23 to apply for relief before she considers whether to issue a deportation order. An immigration judge can rule that a migrant cannot be deported because of possible persecution in a home country, among other limited grounds.
In a separate case in New Jersey, US District Judge Michael Farbiarz has blocked deportation while he considers Khalil’s claim that his arrest was made in violation of the US Constitution’s First Amendment protections for freedom of speech.
KHALIL ADDRESSES THE JUDGE
As Comans adjourned, Khalil leaned forward, asking to address the court. Comans hesitated, then agreed.
Khalil quoted her remarks at his hearing on Tuesday that nothing was more important to the court than “due process rights and fundamental fairness.”
“Clearly what we witnessed today, neither of these principles were present today or in this whole process,” Khalil said. “This is exactly why the Trump administration has sent me to this court, a thousand miles away from my family.”
The judge said her ruling turned on an undated, two-page letter signed by Rubio and submitted to the court and to Khalil’s counsel.
Khalil’s lawyers, appearing via a video link, complained they were given less than 48 hours to review Rubio’s letter and evidence submitted by the Trump administration to Comans this week. Marc Van Der Hout, Khalil’s lead immigration attorney, repeatedly asked for the hearing to be delayed. Comans reprimanded him for what the judge said was straying from the hearing’s purpose, twice saying he had “an agenda.”
Comans said that the 1952 immigration law gave the secretary of state “unilateral judgment” to make his determination about Khalil.
Khalil should be removed, Rubio wrote, for his role in “antisemitic protests and disruptive activities, which fosters a hostile environment for Jewish students in the United States.”
Rubio’s letter did not accuse Khalil of breaking any laws, but said the State Department can revoke the legal status of immigrants who could harm US foreign policy interests even when their beliefs, associations or statements are “otherwise lawful.”
After Comans ended the hearing, several of Khalil’s supporters wept as they left the courtroom. Khalil stood and smiled at them, making a heart shape with his hands.
Khalil has said criticism of the US government’s support of Israel is being wrongly conflated with antisemitism. His lawyers told the court they were submitting into evidence Khalil’s interviews last year with CNN and other news outlets in which he denounces antisemitism and other prejudice.
His lawyers have said the Trump administration was targeting him for protected speech including the right to criticize American foreign policy.
“Mahmoud was subject to a charade of due process, a flagrant violation of his right to a fair hearing and a weaponization of immigration law to suppress dissent,” Van Der Hout said in a statement after the hearing.
The American immigration court system is run and its judges are appointed by the US Justice Department, separate from the government’s judicial branch.
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Hamas Releases Video of Israeli-American Hostage Held in Gaza
FILE PHOTO: Yael, Adi and Mika Alexander, the family of Edan Alexander, the American-Israeli and Israel Defense Forces soldier taken hostage during the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, pose for a photograph during an interview with Reuters at the Alexander’s home in Tenafly, New Jersey, U.S., December 14, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Stephani Spindel/File Photo
Hamas on Saturday released a video purportedly of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, who has been held in Gaza since he was captured by Palestinian terrorists on October 7, 2023.
In the undated video, the man who introduces himself as Edan Alexander states he has been held in Gaza for 551 days. The man questions why he is still being held and pleads for his release.
Alexander is a soldier serving in the Israeli military.
The edited video was released as Jews began to mark Passover, a weeklong holiday that celebrates freedom. Alexander’s family released a statement acknowledging the video that said the holiday would not be one of freedom as long as Edan and the 58 other hostages in Gaza remained in captivity.
Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda that is designed to put pressure on the government. The war is in its eighteenth month.
Hamas released 38 hostages under a ceasefire that began on January 19. In March, Israel’s military resumed its ground and aerial campaign on Gaza, abandoning the ceasefire after Hamas rejected proposals to extend the truce without ending the war.
Israeli officials say that campaign will continue until the remaining 59 hostages are freed and Gaza is demilitarized. Hamas insists it will free hostages only as part of a deal to end the war and has rejected demands to lay down its arms.
The US, Qatar and Egypt are mediating between Hamas and Israel.
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Some Progress in Hostage Talks But Major Issues Remain, Source tells i24NEWS
Demonstrators hold signs and pictures of hostages, as relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages kidnapped during the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas protest demanding the release of all hostages in Tel Aviv, Israel, Feb. 13, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Itai Ron
i24 News – A source familiar with the ongoing negotiations for a hostage deal confirmed to i24NEWS on Friday that some progress has been made in talks, currently taking place with Egypt, including the exchange of draft proposals. However, it remains unclear whether Hamas will ultimately accept the emerging framework. According to the source, discussions are presently focused on reaching a cohesive outline with Cairo.
A delegation of senior Hamas officials is expected to arrive in Cairo tomorrow. While there is still no finalized draft, even Arab sources acknowledge revisions to Egypt’s original proposal, reportedly including a degree of flexibility in the number of hostages Hamas is willing to release.
The source noted that Hamas’ latest proposal to release five living hostages is unacceptable to Israel, which continues to adhere to the “Witkoff framework.” At the core of this framework is the release of a significant number of hostages, alongside a prolonged ceasefire period—Israel insists on 40 days, while Hamas is demanding more. The plan avoids intermittent pauses or distractions, aiming instead for uninterrupted discussions on post-war arrangements.
As previously reported, Israel is also demanding comprehensive medical and nutritional reports on all living hostages as an early condition of the deal.
“For now,” the source told i24NEWS, “Hamas is still putting up obstacles. We are not at the point of a done deal.” Israeli officials emphasize that sustained military and logistical pressure on Hamas is yielding results, pointing to Hamas’ shift from offering one hostage to five in its most recent agreement.
Negotiators also assert that Israel’s demands are fully backed by the United States. Ultimately, Israeli officials are adamant: no negotiations on the “day after” will take place until the hostage issue is resolved—a message directed not only at Hamas, but also at mediators.
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