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Why the Hezbollah Ceasefire Is a Strategic Gamble for Israel
Smoke billows after an Israeli Air Force air strike in southern Lebanon village, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, Oct. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jim Urquhar
One key aspect of the Israeli gamble on a ceasefire arrangement with Hezbollah on the northern front seems to be a set of significant imminent improvements of its air defense systems. The arrival of the Iron Beam laser system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems together with Elbit, marks a revolutionary advancement in Israel’s defensive arsenal. Integrated directly into the existing Iron Dome batteries, which have been operational since 2011, the Iron Beam uses a 100-kilowatt laser to intercept rockets, mortar shells, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and missiles — at the speed of light.
One of the most compelling advantages of the Iron Beam is its cost-effectiveness. Each laser shot costs only a few dollars — the price of the electricity required — compared to approximately $50,000 for each Tamir interceptor missile used by the Iron Dome. This economic efficiency disrupts the financial advantage previously held by terrorists firing rockets and UAVs. The Iron Beam not only reduces operational costs but also does not require ammunition replenishment, ensuring continuous protection.
Furthermore, the laser system offers rapid response capabilities, striking targets within seconds – much faster than kinetic interceptors. If it can be established that the Iron Beam destroys incoming threats before they cross into Israeli air space, this could enable the Israeli Air Force and IDF Home Front Command to decrease the number of disruptive rocket alerts in the future.
While the Iron Beam has a range of about eight to ten kilometers and can engage only one threat at a time, it complements the Iron Dome, which can intercept multiple threats simultaneously over longer distances. The combination of these systems enhances Israel’s layered defense strategy.
This advancement has opened the door for future developments, including mobile ground-based lasers to protect maneuvering military units and airborne systems capable of intercepting threats above cloud cover over enemy territory. An aerial laser system being developed by Elbit has already demonstrated success. In 2021, this system downed UAVs while flying at an altitude of 3,000 feet. If development goes according to plan, the airborne laser is expected to have an interception range of approximately 20 kilometers.
In addition to the Iron Beam, the Israel Defense Forces has been testing radar-guided Vulcan cannons. The M61 Vulcan cannon, capable of firing around 6,000 rounds per minute and mounted on armored personnel carriers, aims to counter the growing threat of UAVs. Hezbollah has been leveraging its proximity to Israel to exploit detection loopholes, flying UAVs at low altitudes from southern Lebanese valleys to evade existing interception systems like the Iron Dome. The Vulcan cannons are expected to bolster Israel’s short-range air defense, protecting sensitive locations and filling gaps in current capabilities.
On the offensive front, Israel is determined to capitalize on its recent achievements against Hezbollah by preserving the new security reality in northern Israel. This involves an active policy of precise airstrikes and targeted ground operations designed to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing a foothold in southern Lebanon, including preventing Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons from trying to rebuild invasion bases in southern Lebanese Shiite villages and replenishing its rocket arsenal. By continuously disrupting Iranian supply routes to Hezbollah — be they land corridors, air smuggling operations, or maritime channels from Syria and Lebanese ports—Israel aims to hinder Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its arsenal and terror infrastructure.
A critical aspect of this strategy is American recognition of Israel’s right to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which effectively gives the resolution “teeth” for the first time. Recognizing that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been totally unable to implement the resolution, Israel is committed to take unilateral action to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence if necessary — and reserve its right to operational freedom.
Adapting tactics from other arenas, the IDF would aim, under this scenario, to “mow the lawn” — meaning periodic, intelligence-driven operations to disrupt hostile activities and prevent force build-up.
However, this proactive stance, while welcome, presents a paradox. While Israel’s enforcement actions would be designed to prevent long-term security threats from reappearing, they may also lead Hezbollah to retaliate, potentially leading to escalation and renewed rocket fire in the north within a short time. Hezbollah still retains residual firepower capabilities, despite an assessment that more than 80% of its arsenal has been destroyed. Assertive future Israeli operations could trigger attacks on northern Israeli communities.
This conundrum necessitates careful consideration by the Israeli cabinet and IDF leadership. Should future critical action to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament instigate the very hostilities it aims to avoid, it will likely be necessary to return to higher intensity conflict. However, this is not an inevitable scenario in the near term.
By decisively weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities and preventing its return to southern Lebanon, Israel can reshape the security landscape in its favor. This will require not only military action but also the leveraging of technological defensive advancements to maintain a strategic edge. The successful integration of systems like the Iron Beam and Vulcan cannons represents a significant step toward neutralizing emerging threats such as UAVs, which Hezbollah employed over the course of the past year to target sensitive locations in attacks that led to painful casualties.
Israel’s strategic “bet” on establishing a new reality in Lebanon will likely evolve into a complex and multifaceted endeavor. By enhancing its defensive capabilities with cutting-edge technologies, and by adopting proactive offensive measures to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence, Israel aims to secure its northern border and protect its citizens. Yet this strategy must navigate the paradox of enforcement potentially leading to escalation. Future attempts by Hezbollah and Iran to rebuild are a certainty so long as the radical Shiite Islamic Republic is led by its current jihadist regime.
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane’s Defense Weekly and JNS.org. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Keith Siegel, Yarden Bibas, Ofer Kalderon set to be released Saturday from Gaza
Philissa Cramer reports for JTA. Look for more updates from The CJN after Shabbat.
An American Israeli and a high-profile young father are among the latest hostages set to be freed from Gaza, in what will be the fourth release during the current Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
Keith Siegel, Yarden Bibas and Ofer Kalderon will be released on Saturday, Hamas told Israel on Friday. The three men are among 33 hostages whose release was required under the current deal, out of 98 held before the deal’s start earlier this month.
Siegel, 65, is the oldest American-Israeli hostage. A North Carolina native who moved to Israel as a young adult, he was abducted in his own car from Kibbutz Kfar Aza with his wife Aviva during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Aviva was released after 51 days in a temporary ceasefire in November 2023 and has advocated for him since, wearing a T-shirt daily with a photo of him on it.
“Dad is coming!” Aviva Siegel shouts in a video the family posted on Friday after hearing the news that her husband was on the list for release. Siegel’s mother died during his captivity.
Bibas, 38, is the father of the only children who remain in Gaza and appeared in a hostage video in November 2023 that showed him responding to being told that his wife, Shiri, and sons Ariel and Kfir had been killed. Israel has never confirmed Hamas’ allegation that the mother and young children were dead, but has said there are “grave concerns” about them and did not insist on their release prior to that of living men.
This week, Israel demanded that Hamas “clarify” the status of Shiri, Ariel and Kfir, who were abducted separately from Yarden and have become global symbols of the crisis; it is not clear whether that has happened or will before his release.
Kalderon, 51, was abducted with his two children from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Sahar, 17, and Erez, 12, were released during the November 2023 ceasefire after 52 days in captivity. Their mother, Hadas, was a prominent voice for mothers of the children abducted on Oct. 7 and has continued to advocate for her ex-husband, a dual French-Israeli citizen.
After the three men are released, there will be 79 hostages remaining in Gaza, of whom at least 44 are confirmed to be dead—36 whose deaths were announced before the current ceasefire, and eight who are among the 33 whose release was negotiated as part of the current deal.
The post Keith Siegel, Yarden Bibas, Ofer Kalderon set to be released Saturday from Gaza appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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Hamas Confirms Death of Terror Chief Mohammed Deif Months After Israeli Strike
Picture said to show leader of Hamas’s military wing, known as Al-Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif in a location given as Gaza Strip in this handout picture released on Jan. 7, 2024. Photo: Israel Defense Forces/Handout via REUTERS
The Palestinian terrorist group Hamas officially confirmed on Thursday that its military chief, Mohammed Deif, was killed during the Gaza war, almost six months after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported his death.
Deif, the architect of Hamas’s military capabilities, is believed to have been one of the masterminds behind the terrorist group’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 — which sparked the Gaza war.
Abu Ubaida, a Hamas spokesperson, also reported the deaths of Deif’s deputy, Khan Younis Brigade commander Rafa Salama, as well as senior operatives Marwan Issa, Ghazi Abu Tama’a, Raad Thabet, Ahmed Ghandour, and Ayman Nofal.
According to the IDF, Deif was killed in an airstrike in Khan Younis in southern Gaza on July 13 of last year.
Following weeks of intelligence assessments, Israeli authorities gathered evidence to confirm Deif’s death before publicly announcing it in early August.
“IDF fighter jets struck in the area of Khan Yunis, and … it can be confirmed that Mohammed Deif was eliminated in the strike,” the military said. “His elimination serves the objectives of the war and demonstrates Israel’s ability to carry out targeted strikes with precision.”
At the time, Hamas neither confirmed nor denied Deif’s death, but one official, Ezzat Rashaq, stated that any announcements regarding the deaths of its leaders would be made solely by the organization.
“Unless either of them [the Hamas political and military leadership] announces it, no news published in the media or by any other parties can be confirmed,” Rashaq said.
In November, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Deif, as well as for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza.
Deif is believed to have collaborated closely with the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, managing military operations and coordinating with the group’s top commanders throughout the conflict.
After Deif’s assassination, then-defense minister Gallant posted an image on social media praising the Israeli military’s accomplishment.
“The assassination of mass murderer Mohammed Deif — ‘Gaza’s Bin Laden’ — is a major step toward dismantling Hamas as a military and governing entity, and achieving the war’s objectives,” he said.
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‘A Bad but Necessary Deal’: Five Members of His Family Were Murdered — Today, Their Killer Walks Free
Oran Almog, right, addressing the UN Security Council next to Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon on July 25, 2017. Photo: Screenshot
While the release of three Israeli hostages on Thursday brought relief and elation across Israel, it also triggered a wave of mixed emotions, especially among victims who saw the terrorists responsible for their suffering set free. One of them is Oran Almog, who was just ten years old when a Palestinian terrorist disguised as a pregnant woman blew up the restaurant he was in, killing five members of his family and leaving him blind.
Yet, while Thursday’s release of Sami Jaradat — the mastermind behind the October 2003 massacre of Almog’s family — was a deeply personal blow, the return of hostages remained a necessary step, he said.
“That the terrorist who killed my family will find himself free is deeply painful, heartbreaking even,” he told The Algemeiner. “But at the same time, I know that even today — especially today — I must set aside my personal pain and focus on the significance of this deal. And the significance is clear. We are getting our hostages home, and that is the only thing that matters.”
Almog’s father, Moshe Almog, his younger brother, Tomer, his grandparents Admiral (res.) Ze’ev and Ruth Almog, and his cousin, Asaf, were murdered when the suicide bomber, Hanadi Jaradat, a 29-year-old lawyer from Jenin, managed to get past the security guard of the Maxim restaurant — jointly owned by a Jewish Israeli and an Arab Israeli — and blow herself up. Sixteen other people were also murdered in the attack, among them four children. Almog lost his eyesight, and his mother, sister, and aunt were among the 60 injured Israelis.
“Sami Jaradat’s continued imprisonment will never bring my family back, but his release can bring the hostages back home alive,” Almog explained.
Emotional meeting between Agam Berger and her family at Beilinson Hospital in Israel. Photo: Haim Zach (GPO)
Almog knows firsthand what it means to be on the receiving end of a hostage-prisoner exchange.
Just two weeks after marking the 20th anniversary of the Maxim restaurant attack, another tragedy struck his family. On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorists brutally murdered Nadav and Yam and abducted Chen, Agam, Gal, and Tal from the Almog-Goldstein family in Kfar Azza.
Fifty-one days later, in November 2023, they were released from Hamas captivity in a temporary ceasefire deal.
Under the current ceasefire agreement reached earlier this month, Hamas will release a total 33 Israeli hostages, eight of whom are deceased, according to the terrorist group. In exchange, Israel will free over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners, many of whom were serving multiple life sentences on terrorism offenses. Thursday saw the release of three Israelis — including IDF surveillance soldier Agam Berger, 20, and civilians Arbel Yehoud, 29, and Gadi Mozes, 80 — and five Thai nationals, who were working in Israeli kibbutzim when they were abducted.
“This is a bad deal, very bad, but the alternative is that much worse,” Almog said. “We must look ahead, put today aside, and recognize that releasing prisoners serves a greater purpose.”
However, Almog expressed hope that Israel would move toward a more decisive and uncompromising approach in its fight against terrorism.
“I sincerely hope that as a country, we will have the wisdom to decisively thwart terrorism,” he said, emphasizing the need to break free from the ongoing cycle of prisoner exchanges.
“I don’t want us to find ourselves trapped in a cycle of releasing terrorists, only for them to return to terror, and then repeat the process again and again,” he added.
Almog has previously addressed the UN Security Council, urging action against the so-called “pay-for-slay” scheme, in which terrorists and their families receive monthly stipends from the Palestinian Authority. The terrorist behind the murder of Almog’s family received $3,000 a month while behind bars, making him almost a millionaire by the time of his release.
Still, Almog concluded with a deeply uplifting message for the returning hostages, confident that they would have a chance at a good life, drawing from his own experiences since the terror attack.
Oran Almog. Photo: Facebook
After his release from the hospital, he began a long rehabilitation process, culminating in third place at the World Blind Sailing Championship with Etgarim, a nonprofit founded by disabled veterans and rehabilitation experts, and supported by the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews (IFCJ). He was chosen to light a torch at Israel’s Independence Day ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the state and, despite his disability, insisted on enlisting in the IDF, serving in an elite unit. Today, he is a managing partner at a financial technology fund, works with Etgarim, and shares his story globally through lectures.
“I know the hostages will be able to return, to live, and to live well. With enough support — and a great deal of willpower — it is truly possible to rebuild life, even after the deepest catastrophes,” he said.
The post ‘A Bad but Necessary Deal’: Five Members of His Family Were Murdered — Today, Their Killer Walks Free first appeared on Algemeiner.com.