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Why the Hezbollah Ceasefire Is a Strategic Gamble for Israel

Smoke billows after an Israeli Air Force air strike in southern Lebanon village, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, Oct. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jim Urquhar

One key aspect of the Israeli gamble on a ceasefire arrangement with Hezbollah on the northern front seems to be a set of significant imminent improvements of its air defense systems. The arrival of the Iron Beam laser system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems together with Elbit, marks a revolutionary advancement in Israel’s defensive arsenal. Integrated directly into the existing Iron Dome batteries, which have been operational since 2011, the Iron Beam uses a 100-kilowatt laser to intercept rockets, mortar shells, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and missiles — at the speed of light.

One of the most compelling advantages of the Iron Beam is its cost-effectiveness. Each laser shot costs only a few dollars — the price of the electricity required — compared to approximately $50,000 for each Tamir interceptor missile used by the Iron Dome. This economic efficiency disrupts the financial advantage previously held by terrorists firing rockets and UAVs. The Iron Beam not only reduces operational costs but also does not require ammunition replenishment, ensuring continuous protection.

Furthermore, the laser system offers rapid response capabilities, striking targets within seconds – much faster than kinetic interceptors. If it can be established that the Iron Beam destroys incoming threats before they cross into Israeli air space, this could enable the Israeli Air Force and IDF Home Front Command to decrease the number of disruptive rocket alerts in the future.

While the Iron Beam has a range of about eight to ten kilometers and can engage only one threat at a time, it complements the Iron Dome, which can intercept multiple threats simultaneously over longer distances. The combination of these systems enhances Israel’s layered defense strategy.

This advancement has opened the door for future developments, including mobile ground-based lasers to protect maneuvering military units and airborne systems capable of intercepting threats above cloud cover over enemy territory. An aerial laser system being developed by Elbit has already demonstrated success. In 2021, this system downed UAVs while flying at an altitude of 3,000 feet. If development goes according to plan, the airborne laser is expected to have an interception range of approximately 20 kilometers.

In addition to the Iron Beam, the Israel Defense Forces has been testing radar-guided Vulcan cannons. The M61 Vulcan cannon, capable of firing around 6,000 rounds per minute and mounted on armored personnel carriers, aims to counter the growing threat of UAVs. Hezbollah has been leveraging its proximity to Israel to exploit detection loopholes, flying UAVs at low altitudes from southern Lebanese valleys to evade existing interception systems like the Iron Dome. The Vulcan cannons are expected to bolster Israel’s short-range air defense, protecting sensitive locations and filling gaps in current capabilities.

On the offensive front, Israel is determined to capitalize on its recent achievements against Hezbollah by preserving the new security reality in northern Israel. This involves an active policy of precise airstrikes and targeted ground operations designed to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing a foothold in southern Lebanon, including preventing Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons from trying to rebuild invasion bases in southern Lebanese Shiite villages and replenishing its rocket arsenal. By continuously disrupting Iranian supply routes to Hezbollah — be they land corridors, air smuggling operations, or maritime channels from Syria and Lebanese ports—Israel aims to hinder Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its arsenal and terror infrastructure.

A critical aspect of this strategy is American recognition of Israel’s right to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which effectively gives the resolution “teeth” for the first time. Recognizing that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been totally unable to implement the resolution, Israel is committed to take unilateral action to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence if necessary — and reserve its right to operational freedom.

Adapting tactics from other arenas, the IDF would aim, under this scenario, to “mow the lawn” — meaning periodic, intelligence-driven operations to disrupt hostile activities and prevent force build-up.

However, this proactive stance, while welcome, presents a paradox. While Israel’s enforcement actions would be designed to prevent long-term security threats from reappearing, they may also lead Hezbollah to retaliate, potentially leading to escalation and renewed rocket fire in the north within a short time. Hezbollah still retains residual firepower capabilities, despite an assessment that more than 80% of its arsenal has been destroyed. Assertive future Israeli operations could trigger attacks on northern Israeli communities.

This conundrum necessitates careful consideration by the Israeli cabinet and IDF leadership. Should future critical action to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament instigate the very hostilities it aims to avoid, it will likely be necessary to return to higher intensity conflict. However, this is not an inevitable scenario in the near term.

By decisively weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities and preventing its return to southern Lebanon, Israel can reshape the security landscape in its favor. This will require not only military action but also the leveraging of technological defensive advancements to maintain a strategic edge. The successful integration of systems like the Iron Beam and Vulcan cannons represents a significant step toward neutralizing emerging threats such as UAVs, which Hezbollah employed over the course of the past year to target sensitive locations in attacks that led to painful casualties.

Israel’s strategic “bet” on establishing a new reality in Lebanon will likely evolve into a complex and multifaceted endeavor. By enhancing its defensive capabilities with cutting-edge technologies, and by adopting proactive offensive measures to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence, Israel aims to secure its northern border and protect its citizens. Yet this strategy must navigate the paradox of enforcement potentially leading to escalation. Future attempts by Hezbollah and Iran to rebuild are a certainty so long as the radical Shiite Islamic Republic is led by its current jihadist regime.

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane’s Defense Weekly and JNS.org. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.

The post Why the Hezbollah Ceasefire Is a Strategic Gamble for Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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After False Dawns, Gazans Hope Trump Will Force End to Two-Year-Old War

Palestinians walk past a residential building destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, after Hamas agreed to release hostages and accept some other terms in a US plan to end the war, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa

Exhausted Palestinians in Gaza clung to hopes on Saturday that US President Donald Trump would keep up pressure on Israel to end a two-year-old war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced the entire population of more than two million.

Hamas’ declaration that it was ready to hand over hostages and accept some terms of Trump’s plan to end the conflict while calling for more talks on several key issues was greeted with relief in the enclave, where most homes are now in ruins.

“It’s happy news, it saves those who are still alive,” said 32-year-old Saoud Qarneyta, reacting to Hamas’ response and Trump’s intervention. “This is enough. Houses have been damaged, everything has been damaged, what is left? Nothing.”

GAZAN RESIDENT HOPES ‘WE WILL BE DONE WITH WARS’

Ismail Zayda, 40, a father of three, displaced from a suburb in northern Gaza City where Israel launched a full-scale ground operation last month, said: “We want President Trump to keep pushing for an end to the war, if this chance is lost, it means that Gaza City will be destroyed by Israel and we might not survive.

“Enough, two years of bombardment, death and starvation. Enough,” he told Reuters on a social media chat.

“God willing this will be the last war. We will hopefully be done with the wars,” said 59-year-old Ali Ahmad, speaking in one of the tented camps where most Palestinians now live.

“We urge all sides not to backtrack. Every day of delay costs lives in Gaza, it is not just time wasted, lives get wasted too,” said Tamer Al-Burai, a Gaza City businessman displaced with members of his family in central Gaza Strip.

After two previous ceasefires — one near the start of the war and another earlier this year — lasted only a few weeks, he said; “I am very optimistic this time, maybe Trump’s seeking to be remembered as a man of peace, will bring us real peace this time.”

RESIDENT WORRIES THAT NETANYAHU WILL ‘SABOTAGE’ DEAL

Some voiced hopes of returning to their homes, but the Israeli military issued a fresh warning to Gazans on Saturday to stay out of Gaza City, describing it as a “dangerous combat zone.”

Gazans have faced previous false dawns during the past two years, when Trump and others declared at several points during on-off negotiations between Hamas, Israel and Arab and US mediators that a deal was close, only for war to rage on.

“Will it happen? Can we trust Trump? Maybe we trust Trump, but will Netanyahu abide this time? He has always sabotaged everything and continued the war. I hope he ends it now,” said Aya, 31, who was displaced with her family to Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip.

She added: “Maybe there is a chance the war ends at October 7, two years after it began.”

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Mass Rally in Rome on Fourth Day of Italy’s Pro-Palestinian Protests

A Pro-Palestinian demonstrator waves a Palestinian flag during a national protest for Gaza in Rome, Italy, October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Claudia Greco

Large crowds assembled in central Rome on Saturday for the fourth straight day of protests in Italy since Israel intercepted an international flotilla trying to deliver aid to Gaza, and detained its activists.

People holding banners and Palestinian flags, chanting “Free Palestine” and other slogans, filed past the Colosseum, taking part in a march that organizers hoped would attract at least 1 million people.

“I’m here with a lot of other friends because I think it is important for us all to mobilize individually,” Francesco Galtieri, a 65-year-old musician from Rome, said. “If we don’t all mobilize, then nothing will change.”

Since Israel started blocking the flotilla late on Wednesday, protests have sprung up across Europe and in other parts of the world, but in Italy they have been a daily occurrence, in multiple cities.

On Friday, unions called a general strike in support of the flotilla, with demonstrations across the country that attracted more than 2 million, according to organizers. The interior ministry estimated attendance at around 400,000.

Italy’s right-wing government has been critical of the protests, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggesting that people would skip work for Gaza just as an excuse for a longer weekend break.

On Saturday, Meloni blamed protesters for insulting graffiti that appeared on a statue of the late Pope John Paul II outside Rome’s main train station, where Pro-Palestinian groups have been holding a protest picket.

“They say they are taking to the streets for peace, but then they insult the memory of a man who was a true defender and builder of peace. A shameful act committed by people blinded by ideology,” she said in a statement.

Israel launched its Gaza offensive after Hamas terrorists staged a cross border attack on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 people hostage.

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Hamas Says It Agrees to Release All Israeli Hostages Under Trump Gaza Plan

Smoke rises during an Israeli military operation in Gaza City, as seen from the central Gaza Strip, October 2, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas

Hamas said on Friday it had agreed to release all Israeli hostages, alive or dead, under the terms of US President Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal, and signaled readiness to immediately enter mediated negotiations to discuss the details.

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