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Why the Hezbollah Ceasefire Is a Strategic Gamble for Israel
Smoke billows after an Israeli Air Force air strike in southern Lebanon village, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, Oct. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jim Urquhar
One key aspect of the Israeli gamble on a ceasefire arrangement with Hezbollah on the northern front seems to be a set of significant imminent improvements of its air defense systems. The arrival of the Iron Beam laser system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems together with Elbit, marks a revolutionary advancement in Israel’s defensive arsenal. Integrated directly into the existing Iron Dome batteries, which have been operational since 2011, the Iron Beam uses a 100-kilowatt laser to intercept rockets, mortar shells, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and missiles — at the speed of light.
One of the most compelling advantages of the Iron Beam is its cost-effectiveness. Each laser shot costs only a few dollars — the price of the electricity required — compared to approximately $50,000 for each Tamir interceptor missile used by the Iron Dome. This economic efficiency disrupts the financial advantage previously held by terrorists firing rockets and UAVs. The Iron Beam not only reduces operational costs but also does not require ammunition replenishment, ensuring continuous protection.
Furthermore, the laser system offers rapid response capabilities, striking targets within seconds – much faster than kinetic interceptors. If it can be established that the Iron Beam destroys incoming threats before they cross into Israeli air space, this could enable the Israeli Air Force and IDF Home Front Command to decrease the number of disruptive rocket alerts in the future.
While the Iron Beam has a range of about eight to ten kilometers and can engage only one threat at a time, it complements the Iron Dome, which can intercept multiple threats simultaneously over longer distances. The combination of these systems enhances Israel’s layered defense strategy.
This advancement has opened the door for future developments, including mobile ground-based lasers to protect maneuvering military units and airborne systems capable of intercepting threats above cloud cover over enemy territory. An aerial laser system being developed by Elbit has already demonstrated success. In 2021, this system downed UAVs while flying at an altitude of 3,000 feet. If development goes according to plan, the airborne laser is expected to have an interception range of approximately 20 kilometers.
In addition to the Iron Beam, the Israel Defense Forces has been testing radar-guided Vulcan cannons. The M61 Vulcan cannon, capable of firing around 6,000 rounds per minute and mounted on armored personnel carriers, aims to counter the growing threat of UAVs. Hezbollah has been leveraging its proximity to Israel to exploit detection loopholes, flying UAVs at low altitudes from southern Lebanese valleys to evade existing interception systems like the Iron Dome. The Vulcan cannons are expected to bolster Israel’s short-range air defense, protecting sensitive locations and filling gaps in current capabilities.
On the offensive front, Israel is determined to capitalize on its recent achievements against Hezbollah by preserving the new security reality in northern Israel. This involves an active policy of precise airstrikes and targeted ground operations designed to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing a foothold in southern Lebanon, including preventing Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons from trying to rebuild invasion bases in southern Lebanese Shiite villages and replenishing its rocket arsenal. By continuously disrupting Iranian supply routes to Hezbollah — be they land corridors, air smuggling operations, or maritime channels from Syria and Lebanese ports—Israel aims to hinder Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its arsenal and terror infrastructure.
A critical aspect of this strategy is American recognition of Israel’s right to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which effectively gives the resolution “teeth” for the first time. Recognizing that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been totally unable to implement the resolution, Israel is committed to take unilateral action to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence if necessary — and reserve its right to operational freedom.
Adapting tactics from other arenas, the IDF would aim, under this scenario, to “mow the lawn” — meaning periodic, intelligence-driven operations to disrupt hostile activities and prevent force build-up.
However, this proactive stance, while welcome, presents a paradox. While Israel’s enforcement actions would be designed to prevent long-term security threats from reappearing, they may also lead Hezbollah to retaliate, potentially leading to escalation and renewed rocket fire in the north within a short time. Hezbollah still retains residual firepower capabilities, despite an assessment that more than 80% of its arsenal has been destroyed. Assertive future Israeli operations could trigger attacks on northern Israeli communities.
This conundrum necessitates careful consideration by the Israeli cabinet and IDF leadership. Should future critical action to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament instigate the very hostilities it aims to avoid, it will likely be necessary to return to higher intensity conflict. However, this is not an inevitable scenario in the near term.
By decisively weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities and preventing its return to southern Lebanon, Israel can reshape the security landscape in its favor. This will require not only military action but also the leveraging of technological defensive advancements to maintain a strategic edge. The successful integration of systems like the Iron Beam and Vulcan cannons represents a significant step toward neutralizing emerging threats such as UAVs, which Hezbollah employed over the course of the past year to target sensitive locations in attacks that led to painful casualties.
Israel’s strategic “bet” on establishing a new reality in Lebanon will likely evolve into a complex and multifaceted endeavor. By enhancing its defensive capabilities with cutting-edge technologies, and by adopting proactive offensive measures to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence, Israel aims to secure its northern border and protect its citizens. Yet this strategy must navigate the paradox of enforcement potentially leading to escalation. Future attempts by Hezbollah and Iran to rebuild are a certainty so long as the radical Shiite Islamic Republic is led by its current jihadist regime.
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane’s Defense Weekly and JNS.org. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Iran Says It Has Replaced Air Defenses Damaged in Israel War
The S-300 missile system is seen during the National Army Day parade ceremony in Tehran, Iran, April 17, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Iran has replaced air defenses damaged during last month’s conflict with Israel, Iran’s Defah Press news agency reported on Sunday quoting Mahmoud Mousavi, the regular army’s deputy for operations.
During the conflict in June, Israel’s air force dominated Iran’s airspace and dealt a heavy blow to the country’s air defenses while Iranian armed forces launched successive barrages of missiles and drones on Israeli territory.
“Some of our air defenses were damaged, this is not something we can hide, but our colleagues have used domestic resources and replaced them with pre-arranged systems that were stored in suitable locations in order to keep the airspace secure,” Mousavi said.
Prior to the war, Iran had its own domestically-made long-range air defense system Bavar-373 in addition to the Russian-made S-300 system. The report by Defah Press did not mention any import of foreign-made air defense systems to Iran in past weeks.
Following limited Israeli strikes against Iranian missile factories last October, Iran later displayed Russian-made air defenses in a military exercise to show it recovered from the attack.
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Calm Reported in Syria’s Sweida, Damascus Says Truce Holding
Members of Internal Security Forces stand guard at an Internal Security Forces’ checkpoint working to prevent Bedouin fighters from advancing towards Sweida, following renewed fighting between Bedouin fighters and Druze gunmen, despite an announced truce, in Walgha, Sweida province, Syria, July 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
Residents reported calm in Syria’s Sweida on Sunday after the Islamist-led government announced that Bedouin fighters had withdrawn from the predominantly Druze city and a US envoy signaled that a deal to end days of fighting was being implemented.
With hundreds reported killed, the Sweida bloodshed is a major test for interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, prompting Israel to launch airstrikes against government forces last week as it declared support for the Druze. Fighting continued on Saturday despite a ceasefire call.
Interior Minister Anas Khattab said on Sunday that internal security forces had managed to calm the situation and enforce the ceasefire, “paving the way for a prisoner exchange and the gradual return of stability throughout the governorate.”
Reuters images showed interior ministry forces near the city, blocking the road in front of members of tribes congregated there. The Interior Ministry said late on Saturday that Bedouin fighters had left the city.
US envoy Tom Barrack said the sides had “navigated to a pause and cessation of hostilities”. “The next foundation stone on a path to inclusion, and lasting de-escalation, is a complete exchange of hostages and detainees, the logistics of which are in process,” he wrote on X.
Kenan Azzam, a dentist, said there was an uneasy calm but the city’s residents were struggling with a lack of water and electricity. “The hospitals are a disaster and out of service, and there are still so many dead and wounded,” he said by phone.
Another resident, Raed Khazaal, said aid was urgently needed. “Houses are destroyed … The smell of corpses is spread throughout the national hospital,” he said in a voice message to Reuters from Sweida.
The Syrian state news agency said an aid convoy sent to the city by the government was refused entry while aid organized by the Syrian Red Crescent was let in. A source familiar with the situation said local factions in Sweida had turned back the government convoy.
Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported on Sunday that Israel sent urgent medical aid to the Druze in Sweida and the step was coordinated with Washington and Syria. Spokespeople for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Foreign Ministry and the military did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Druze are a small but influential minority in Syria, Israel and Lebanon who follow a religion that is an offshoot of a branch of Shi’ite Islam. Some hardline Sunnis deem their beliefs heretical.
The fighting began a week ago with clashes between Bedouin and Druze fighters. Damascus sent troops to quell the fighting, but they were drawn into the violence and accused of widespread violations against the Druze.
Residents of the predominantly Druze city said friends and neighbours were shot at close range in their homes or in the streets by Syrian troops, identified by their fatigues and insignia.
Sharaa on Thursday promised to protect the rights of Druze and to hold to account those who committed violations against “our Druze people.”
He has blamed the violence on “outlaw groups.”
While Sharaa has won US backing since meeting President Donald Trump in May, the violence has underscored the challenge he faces stitching back together a country shattered by 14 years of conflict, and added to pressures on its mosaic of sectarian and ethnic groups.
COASTAL VIOLENCE
After Israel bombed Syrian government forces in Sweida and hit the defense ministry in Damascus last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had established a policy demanding the demilitarization of territory near the border, stretching from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights to the Druze Mountain, east of Sweida.
He also said Israel would protect the Druze.
The United States however said it did not support the Israeli strikes. On Friday, an Israeli official said Israel agreed to allow Syrian forces limited access to the Sweida area for two days.
A Syrian security source told Reuters that internal security forces had taken up positions near Sweida, establishing checkpoints in western and eastern parts of the province where retreating tribal fighters had gathered.
On Sunday, Sharaa received the report of an inquiry into violence in Syria’s coastal region in March, where Reuters reported in June that Syrian forces killed 1,500 members of the Alawite minority following attacks on security forces.
The presidency said it would review the inquiry’s conclusions and ensure steps to “bring about justice” and prevent the recurrence of “such violations.” It called on the inquiry to hold a news conference on its findings – if appropriate – as soon as possible.
The Syrian Network for Human Rights said on July 18 it had documented the deaths of at least 321 people in Sweida province since July 13. The preliminary toll included civilians, women, children, Bedouin fighters, members of local groups and members of the security forces, it said, and the dead included people killed in field executions by both sides.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, another monitoring group, has reported a death toll of at least 940 people.
Reuters could not independently verify the tolls.
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Pope Leo Calls for End to ‘Barbarity of War’ After Strike on Gaza Church
Pope Leo XIV leads the Angelus prayer in Castel Gandolfo, Italy, July 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Yara Nardi TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Pope Leo called for an end to the “barbarity of war” on Sunday as he spoke of his profound pain over an Israeli strike on the sole Catholic church in Gaza.
Three people died and several were injured, including the parish priest, in the strike on the Holy Family Church compound in Gaza City on Thursday. Photos show its roof has been hit close to the main cross, scorching the stone facade, and shattering windows.
Speaking after his Angelus prayer, Leo read out the names of those killed in the incident.
“I appeal to the international community to observe humanitarian law and respect the obligation to protect civilians as well as the prohibition of collective punishment, of indiscriminate use of force and forced displacement of the population,” he said.
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