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WIll Israel-Iran Conflict Spiral Out of Control — or Will Both Sides Play It Safe?
Iranians attend an anti-Israel rally in Tehran, Iran, April 19, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
The geopolitical tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the State of Israel have long been a focal point of Middle Eastern politics, drawing global attention due to their potential implications for regional stability and international security.
This article examines the recent developments in Iran-Israel relations by analyzing Iran’s military capabilities, its nuclear ambitions, the rhetoric of the conflict, and the implications of Iranian terrorism. The discussion navigates through these elements to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strategic postures and potential scenarios that might unfold in the future.
Military Capabilities and Deficiencies
Recent confrontations between Iran and Israel have shed light on critical vulnerabilities within Iran’s military infrastructure, particularly in air defense and deterrence mechanisms. The effectiveness of Iran’s air defenses was questioned critically following Israel’s successful penetration of Iranian airspace, which revealed not only technical deficiencies, but also strategic shortcomings in Iran’s approach to regional security. These incidents have led to an evaluation of Iran’s military posture as potentially more symbolic than pragmatic, challenging the perceived robustness of its defense strategy.
Nuclear Ambitions and International Treaties
One of the most contentious issues in Iran-Israel relations is Iran’s nuclear program. There is growing concern that Iran might withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and openly pursue nuclear weapons. This potential shift is alarming for global security architectures, and reflects Iran’s frustration with international constraints that have not led to economic or political gains promised by global powers at various junctures.
Just this week, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Mariano Grossi said that Iran’s recent nuclear activity “raises eyebrows” — which is an extremely worrying sign.
The possibility of Iran declaring its intention to develop a nuclear bomb — or just to do so without announcing this to the world — would escalate tensions significantly, prompting a reevaluation of security strategies by multiple states, particularly Israel and the United States.
Perception vs. Reality of Military Strength
Despite its assertive rhetoric and occasional show of military force, Iran has often been described as a “paper tiger,” a term that implies its actual capabilities do not match its portrayed strength. This analysis suggests that while Iran has made significant strides in military technology and capabilities since the Cold War, its actual ability to project power and sustain prolonged military engagements is limited, when paired with Israeli and American countermeasures.
But those countermeasures certainly aren’t exhaustive or unlimited, and it’s unknown what power Iran might possess in a full-blown conflict. Still, this discrepancy between perception and reality affects Iran’s strategic calculations and its interactions with neighboring countries and the international community. The international response to Iran’s attack on Israel demonstrates that Iran has a number of countries that are trying to thwart its malicious activities.
Avoidance of Full-Scale Warfare
Given its strategic limitations, Iran is likely to avoid full-scale warfare. For Iran, the cost of such conflict would be catastrophic, particularly considering the potential for international isolation and the probable direct confrontations with technologically superior forces like those of the United States and Israel. Instead, Iran might continue to leverage asymmetric warfare tactics, including proxy wars, terrorism, and using political influence in neighboring regions, as a means to extend its influence without engaging in direct, conventional warfare.
Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare
The increase in activity of Iran’s terrorist cells in regions like the Northern Hemisphere and the Middle East suggests a strategic pivot towards asymmetric warfare. This form of engagement allows Iran to exert influence and retaliate against adversaries without direct military confrontations, which could lead to rapid escalation and uncontrollable consequences. The intensification of such activities has implications for regional security, necessitating a coordinated response from affected states to address the root causes and manifestations of state-sponsored terrorism.
The Nature of the Iran-Israel Conflict
Despite the severe rhetoric and military posturing, the Iran-Israel conflict exhibits a pattern of controlled escalation. Both nations are aware of the potential for a full-scale conflict to spiral out of control, suggesting a mutual, albeit unspoken, understanding that limits the scope of their engagements. This tacit acknowledgment dictates much of the strategic interaction between the two, with both sides aiming to manage the conflict within certain boundaries, avoiding actions that could trigger an all-out war.
The Iran-Israel dynamic is a complex interplay of military strategy, political survival, and regional influence. While Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear ambitions pose significant challenges, its strategic behavior suggests a preference for indirect engagement over direct conflict. The state’s use of terrorism as a tool of foreign policy is particularly concerning and highlights the broader implications of Iran’s regional strategy. Understanding these elements is crucial for policymakers and analysts working to mitigate risks and foster stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
Erfan Fard is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. Twitter@EQFARD
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Trump’s Travel Ban on 12 Countries Goes Into Effect Early Monday

US President Donald Trump attends the Saudi-US Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 13, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Brian Snyder
US President Donald Trump’s order banning citizens of 12 countries from entering the United States goes into effect at 12:01 am ET (0401 GMT) on Monday, a move the president promulgated to protect the country from “foreign terrorists.”
The countries affected by the latest travel ban are Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
The entry of people from seven other countries – Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela – will be partially restricted.
Trump, a Republican, said the countries subject to the most severe restrictions were determined to harbor a “large-scale presence of terrorists,” fail to cooperate on visa security, have an inability to verify travelers’ identities, as well as inadequate record-keeping of criminal histories and high rates of visa overstays in the United States.
He cited last Sunday’s incident in Boulder, Colorado, in which an Egyptian national tossed a gasoline bomb into a crowd of pro-Israel demonstrators as an example of why the new curbs are needed. But Egypt is not part of the travel ban.
The travel ban forms part of Trump’s policy to restrict immigration into the United States and is reminiscent of a similar move in his first term when he barred travelers from seven Muslim-majority nations.
Officials and residents in countries whose citizens will soon be banned expressed dismay and disbelief.
Chad President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno said he had instructed his government to stop granting visas to US citizens in response to Trump’s action.
“Chad has neither planes to offer nor billions of dollars to give, but Chad has its dignity and its pride,” he said in a Facebook post, referring to countries such as Qatar, which gifted the U.S. a luxury airplane for Trump’s use and promised to invest billions of dollars in the U.S.
Afghans who worked for the US or US-funded projects and were hoping to resettle in the US expressed fear that the travel ban would force them to return to their country, where they could face reprisal from the Taliban.
Democratic US lawmakers also voiced concern about the policies.
“Trump’s travel ban on citizens from over 12 countries is draconian and unconstitutional,” said US Representative Ro Khanna on social media late on Thursday. “People have a right to seek asylum.”
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Israeli Military Says It Struck Hamas Member in Southern Syria

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa speaks during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron after a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, May 7, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq/Pool
The Israeli military said on Sunday that it struck a member of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in southern Syria’s Mazraat Beit Jin, days after Israel carried out its first airstrikes in the country in nearly a month.
Hamas did not immediately comment on the strike.
Israel said on Tuesday it hit weapons belonging to the government in retaliation for the firing of two projectiles towards Israel for the first time under the country’s new leadership. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz held Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa accountable.
Damascus in response said reports of the shelling were unverified, reiterating that Syria does not pose a threat to any regional party.
A little known group named “Martyr Muhammad Deif Brigades,” an apparent reference to Hamas’ military leader who was killed in an Israeli strike in 2024, reportedly claimed responsibility for the shelling. Reuters, however, could not independently verify the claim.
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Israel Orders Military to Stop Gaza-Bound Yacht Carrying Greta Thunberg

FILE PHOTO: Activist Greta Thunberg sits aboard the aid ship Madleen, which left the Italian port of Catania on June 1 to travel to Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid, in this picture released on June 2, 2025 on social media. Photo: Freedom Flotilla Coalition/via REUTERS/File Photo
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz told the military on Sunday to stop a charity boat carrying activists including Sweden’s Greta Thunberg who are planning to defy an Israeli blockade and reach Gaza.
Operated by the pro-Palestinian Freedom Flotilla Coalition (FFC), the British-flagged Madleen yacht set sail from Sicily on June 6 and is currently off the Egyptian coast, heading slowly towards the Gaza Strip, which is besieged by Israel.
“I instructed the IDF to act so that the Madleen .. does not reach Gaza,” Katz said in a statement.
“To the antisemitic Greta and her Hamas-propaganda-spouting friends, I say clearly: You’d better turn back, because you will not reach Gaza.”
Climate activist Thunberg said she joined the Madleen crew to “challenge Israel’s illegal siege and escalating war crimes” in Gaza and highlight the urgent need for humanitarian aid. She has rejected previous Israeli accusations of antisemitism.
Israel went to war with Hamas in October 2023 after the Islamist terrorists launched a surprise attack on southern Israel, killing more 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages back to the enclave.
Katz said the blockade was essential to Israel’s national security as it seeks to eliminate Hamas.
“The State of Israel will not allow anyone to break the naval blockade on Gaza, whose primary purpose is to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hamas,” he said.
The Madleen is carrying a symbolic quantity of aid, including rice and baby formula, the FFC has said.
FFC press officer Hay Sha Wiya said on Sunday the boat was currently some 160 nautical miles (296 km) from Gaza. “We are preparing for the possibility of interception,” she said.
Besides Thunberg, there are 11 other crew members aboard, including Rima Hassan, a French member of the European Parliament.
Israeli media have reported that the military plans to intercept the yacht before it reaches Gaza and escort it to the Israeli port of Ashdod. The crew would then be deported.
In 2010, Israeli commandos killed 10 people when they boarded a Turkish ship, the Mavi Marmara, that was leading a small flotilla towards Gaza.
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