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WIll Israel-Iran Conflict Spiral Out of Control — or Will Both Sides Play It Safe?

Iranians attend an anti-Israel rally in Tehran, Iran, April 19, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

The geopolitical tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the State of Israel have long been a focal point of Middle Eastern politics, drawing global attention due to their potential implications for regional stability and international security.

This article examines the recent developments in Iran-Israel relations by analyzing Iran’s military capabilities, its nuclear ambitions, the rhetoric of the conflict, and the implications of Iranian terrorism. The discussion navigates through these elements to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strategic postures and potential scenarios that might unfold in the future.

Military Capabilities and Deficiencies

Recent confrontations between Iran and Israel have shed light on critical vulnerabilities within Iran’s military infrastructure, particularly in air defense and deterrence mechanisms. The effectiveness of Iran’s air defenses was questioned critically following Israel’s successful penetration of Iranian airspace, which revealed not only technical deficiencies, but also strategic shortcomings in Iran’s approach to regional security. These incidents have led to an evaluation of Iran’s military posture as potentially more symbolic than pragmatic, challenging the perceived robustness of its defense strategy.

Nuclear Ambitions and International Treaties

One of the most contentious issues in Iran-Israel relations is Iran’s nuclear program. There is growing concern that Iran might withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and openly pursue nuclear weapons. This potential shift is alarming for global security architectures, and reflects Iran’s frustration with international constraints that have not led to economic or political gains promised by global powers at various junctures.

Just this week, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Mariano Grossi said that Iran’s recent nuclear activity “raises eyebrows” — which is an extremely worrying sign.

The possibility of Iran declaring its intention to develop a nuclear bomb — or just to do so without announcing this to the world — would escalate tensions significantly, prompting a reevaluation of security strategies by multiple states, particularly Israel and the United States.

Perception vs. Reality of Military Strength

Despite its assertive rhetoric and occasional show of military force, Iran has often been described as a “paper tiger,” a term that implies its actual capabilities do not match its portrayed strength. This analysis suggests that while Iran has made significant strides in military technology and capabilities since the Cold War, its actual ability to project power and sustain prolonged military engagements is limited, when paired with Israeli and American countermeasures.

But those countermeasures certainly aren’t exhaustive or unlimited, and it’s unknown what power Iran might possess in a full-blown conflict. Still, this discrepancy between perception and reality affects Iran’s strategic calculations and its interactions with neighboring countries and the international community. The international response to Iran’s attack on Israel demonstrates that Iran has a number of countries that are trying to thwart its malicious activities.

Avoidance of Full-Scale Warfare

Given its strategic limitations, Iran is likely to avoid full-scale warfare. For Iran, the cost of such conflict would be catastrophic, particularly considering the potential for international isolation and the probable direct confrontations with technologically superior forces like those of the United States and Israel. Instead, Iran might continue to leverage asymmetric warfare tactics, including proxy wars, terrorism, and using political influence in neighboring regions, as a means to extend its influence without engaging in direct, conventional warfare.

Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare

The increase in activity of Iran’s terrorist cells in regions like the Northern Hemisphere and the Middle East suggests a strategic pivot towards asymmetric warfare. This form of engagement allows Iran to exert influence and retaliate against adversaries without direct military confrontations, which could lead to rapid escalation and uncontrollable consequences. The intensification of such activities has implications for regional security, necessitating a coordinated response from affected states to address the root causes and manifestations of state-sponsored terrorism.

The Nature of the Iran-Israel Conflict

Despite the severe rhetoric and military posturing, the Iran-Israel conflict exhibits a pattern of controlled escalation. Both nations are aware of the potential for a full-scale conflict to spiral out of control, suggesting a mutual, albeit unspoken, understanding that limits the scope of their engagements. This tacit acknowledgment dictates much of the strategic interaction between the two, with both sides aiming to manage the conflict within certain boundaries, avoiding actions that could trigger an all-out war.

The Iran-Israel dynamic is a complex interplay of military strategy, political survival, and regional influence. While Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear ambitions pose significant challenges, its strategic behavior suggests a preference for indirect engagement over direct conflict. The state’s use of terrorism as a tool of foreign policy is particularly concerning and highlights the broader implications of Iran’s regional strategy. Understanding these elements is crucial for policymakers and analysts working to mitigate risks and foster stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

Erfan Fard is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. Twitter@EQFARD

The post WIll Israel-Iran Conflict Spiral Out of Control — or Will Both Sides Play It Safe? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Wikipedia’s Serious Problem: Bias Against Israel

An aerial view shows the bodies of victims of an attack following a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip lying on the ground in Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in southern Israel, Oct. 10, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Ilan Rosenberg

The report that Wikipedia’s volunteer editors are labeling the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) as an unreliable source of information on certain topics — including antisemitism related to Israel and Zionism — is a much more serious problem than an attack on a particular institution. Instead, it speaks to how much the bias against Israel and the indifference to antisemitism has spread to other organizations and informational platforms in this country.

There are those in the Jewish community who go so far as to claim that any criticism of Israel is really a cover for antisemitism. This is absurd. Israel is a country like any other, and its policies are subject to criticism, and even condemnation, as we see taking place within the country itself. Serious people, including those at ADL, reject outright the idea that Israel is beyond criticism, and that when criticism of Israel appears, it is a manifestation of antisemitism.

On the other hand, equally absurd — but much more dangerous because it is accepted in certain mainstream institutions — is the notion that any form of criticism of Israel can never be classified as antisemitism. This is a dangerous and misinformed idea, which underlies the spread of hate that we have witnessed since October 7. The most extreme manifestation of this was the rationalization or outright denial of the barbaric Hamas massacre of October 7.  This attack — the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust — was supposedly framed in terms of legitimate resistance to Israeli policies. In other words, nothing Israel could do to defend itself is defensible.

While the distortion embodied in these justifications for the murder of 1,200 Israelis, the rape of scores of women, the taking of more than 200 hostages is so obvious, it wasn’t the most perilous form. Even a person with hostile views toward the Jewish State could see through the immorality of justifying one of the worst acts of terrorism since 9/11.

Far more dangerous, because of its respectability, is the concept that no criticism of Israel can ever be antisemitism. This is often expressed with phrases like, “we don’t hate Jews, we hate Zionism.” And those sources — such as the ADL — which identify areas where hostility toward Israel can be a form of antisemitism and a generator of antisemitic incidents, are treated as biased and unreliable by Wikipedia and other groups and publications.

In fact, the manifestations of anti-Israel activity and the explosion of anti-Jewish behavior in a multitude of areas of society cannot be separated from classical antisemitism.

Jews were demonized for centuries — from being accused as “Christ killers,” to charges of blood libels and murders of children for ritual purposes, to sinister conspiracy theories as embodied in the fraudulent Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion document, which accuses Jewish leaders of plotting to take over the world.

All of this deeply embedded hatred culminated in the Holocaust, the Nazis’ systematic murder of two-thirds of the Jews of Europe.

After the horrors of the Nazi extermination of the Jewish people, outright Jew-hatred was stigmatized — but millennia of prejudice against the Jewish people did not suddenly disappear. Over time, it transformed itself into something more legitimate: hatred of the only Jewish state in the world.

To those who cared, like Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., it was obvious that delegitimizing the Jewish State was merely a post-Holocaust form of antisemitism.

While these ideas existed for decades, it was October 7 that gave them new life. Beyond the rationalization of the Hamas terrorism itself, the anti-Israel protests on campuses were characterized by classic demonization and delegitimization of the Jewish State and its Jewish supporters.

Denial of the fundamental right of the Jewish state to exist — as embodied in the popular protest phrase, “From the river to the sea” — is along the historic lines of delegitimizing Jews through conspiracy theories.

Demonization of the Jewish State through denying what Hamas did, or justifying or labeling Israel’s struggle to defend itself after the worst day since the Holocaust as genocide — or accusing Israel of deliberately targeting children, in the spirit of blood libel charges — are only some of the ways in which expressions have not been mere criticism of Israel.

And the effect of all this — the attacks on Jews on campuses and elsewhere — was highly predictable. Hate speech, whether from the right, the left, or Islamist, inevitably leads to hate incidents.

In deeming ADL reporting as “unreliable,” this subset of Wikipedia’s editors has ignored all these forms of antisemitism that have emerged over the last eight months. For us, we will continue to do our work, always recognizing the distinction between free speech and criticism of Israeli policies and the demonization and delegitimization of the Jewish state, which fits into the pattern of historic antisemitism.

It is important that leaders in society make clear that they know what’s going on here — that it’s exactly this kind of thinking that has produced the opportunity for antisemitism to openly raise its ugly head in a way that we haven’t seen for decades. If people don’t confront the reality, this hatred — legitimized by mainstream sources — will spread and create even greater dangers for American Jews and American society.

The first step in standing up against this spreading support for hate is to express support for the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s Working Definition of Antisemitism, which articulates when legitimate criticism of Israel becomes antisemitism.

Ken Jacobson is Associate National Director of ADL.

The post Wikipedia’s Serious Problem: Bias Against Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Members of Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah Party Say Jews Cannot Live in Israel

People hold Fatah flags during a protest in support of the people of Gaza, as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, in Hebron, in the West Bank, Oct. 27, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Mussa Qawasma

Whoever thinks the current war is an isolated conflict in the Gaza Strip — think again. The war is being cheered by members of Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas’ political party, Fatah, as leading to a “return to Acre, Jaffa, and Haifa.”

In other words, “from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.”

One Fatah member stated recently what Palestinian Media Watch (PMW) has documented for decades — that the conflict with Israel is not over land, but much more. It is “existential, not just a conflict over borders.”

Fatah Revolutionary Council member Muhammad Al-Lahham: “This is my opinion as [a member of] Fatah: That my conflict against this occupation [i.e., Israel] is an existential conflict, not just a conflict over borders. It’s either me or him on this land.”

[Al-Arabiya TV (Saudi Arabia), Facebook page, June 15, 2024]

Another top member and official of Fatah, Nablus Branch Secretary Muhammad Hamdan, said that Palestinians dying in the war in Gaza serve as “fuel” for the Palestinian “return,” and taking over of all of Israel. As he put it, Israel is “transient”:

Fatah Nablus Branch Secretary Muhammad Hamdan: “We say to the entire world that this blood that is being shed will be the fuel for our return to Acre, Jaffa, and Haifa, and certainly the Israeli occupation is transient and indeed the State of Palestine will be established, whether the occupation [i.e., Israel] and this world want it or not. All this national and mass activity emphasizes that we are returning, whether the occupation wants it or not.”

[Official PA TV, May 15, 2024]

The Palestinian Authority’s Ministry of Education showed a map and worded it as explicitly as possible on its Facebook page: “Palestine — the entire land is ours, from the [Mediterranean] Sea to the [Jordan] River”

Facebook, PA Ministry of Education, Nov. 16, 2021

This echoes many similar statements before it by other top Fatah and PA officials, such as Fatah Revolutionary Council Secretary Majed Al-Fatiani, who said that all the “transients” who came to “Palestine” must return “to where they came from,” and that only the Palestinians will have “sovereignty” over the land:

Fatah Revolutionary Council Secretary Majed Al-Fatiani: “There will be no sovereignty over this land except for the Palestinians … even if there is a foreign and transient case as the transients who came in the history of Palestine and returned to where they came from… [The Israelis] must understand that Palestine between the [Mediterranean] Sea and the [Jordan] River – every Palestinian man and woman has a right to it, and we will pursue them to take this right … Every year a generation arises among us that says: My home is in Jaffa, my home is in Tantura, my home is in the Upper Galilee, in Al-Bassa, in Lod, my home is in Ramle, Umm Al-Rashrash [i.e., Eilat; all the places are in Israel], and everywhere.”

[Fatah-run Awdah TV, Special Coverage, May 29, 2022]

The idea of Israel as a colonial “implant” and “a temporary ruler” is expressed in the following video, which was broadcast by official PA TV hundreds of times for almost a decade. It shows the rise and defeat of different rulers in “Palestine” over time. It ends with Israel’s defeat and the arrival of a “new” Muslim conqueror, Saladin, who defeated the Crusaders, thus representing the coming Muslim savior who will “liberate Palestine” from Jewish-Israeli rule:

The author is a senior analyst at Palestinian Media Watch, where a version of this article was originally published.

 

The post Members of Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah Party Say Jews Cannot Live in Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Did Jamaal Bowman Primary Bring AOC & Nick Fuentes Together?

US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) speaks during a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on March 21, 2024. Photo: Craig Hudson/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect

Far-right white supremacist Nick Fuentes recently found common ground with progressive New York Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), taunting her with their political and ideological “similarities.” And the Internet caught fire.

What started as Ocasio-Cortez’s distaste for “big money” election spending ended with an exchange that Fuentes created to match her with anti-Israel rhetoric.

While it is evident that both Fuentes and Ocasio-Cortez are clearly anti-Israel, one accepted definition of antisemitism would also indicate that their rhetoric and their actions in turn make them both antisemitic.

AOC is more America First than 99% of Republicans. https://t.co/VDgdMZr4N6

— Nicholas J. Fuentes (@NickJFuentes) June 19, 2024

No matter how hard she tries, AOC cannot separate herself from being associated with Jew-haters. Her standpoint appears to be mainly made of ignorance, angelic naïveté, and her alliance with two of the most antisemitic Congresswomen, Ilan Omar (D-MN) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI).

Now, Fuentes has managed to rile her up in one tweet and expose their similarities. Fuentes, of course, is an open antisemite and white supremacist.

You are a white supremacist and I want nothing to do with you nor the world you imagine. I believe in a multiracial democracy, one of economic rights, civil liberties, and that affirms the working class and the rights of women and LGBTQ+ people.

These are not small differences.…

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) June 20, 2024

But that is exactly the point, polar-opposites of the spectrum are supposedly adversaries in their values. Yet extremes on either side are like a horseshoe spectrum — they meet at the bottom where the ends almost touch.

As for the “most expensive primary” that AOC criticized, Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) suffered a resounding defeat. He also did so in a way that singled out the Jewish community. And despite critics’ claims, the results also proved what HonestReporting wrote: this primary race was about more than “the Benjamins.”

A beloved county-executive and more moderate Democrat, George Latimer won 58.6% of the vote, and his voters were motivated by many issues. However, The New York Times put out a disturbing headline, later changing it amid criticism.

Actually, @nytimes, there was far more to it than “the Benjamins,” as we made clear the day before Bowman’s defeat. https://t.co/rhyGHVDv94 https://t.co/sTdLl8aWNT

— HonestReporting (@HonestReporting) June 26, 2024

Hmmm seems @nytimes thought better of their headline placing the blame for Bowman’s loss on the Jews, oops I mean “pro-Israel money.” https://t.co/k5PvLFrvwi pic.twitter.com/DB4sc2YVGy

— Dr. Laura Shaw Frank (@shawfrank) June 26, 2024

Of course, the Jewish people will be blamed for this “upset.” And not just by AOC.

Many allies of Fuentes and KKK leader David Duke also blamed the result on Jews. One former UFC fighter took to X to blame “Israel” for meddling in elections. He made the mistake of retweeting a post referencing Jewish people.

Once again, we often see that anti-Zionism is antisemitism.

The author is a contributor to HonestReporting, a Jerusalem-based media watchdog with a focus on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias — where a version of this article first appeared.

The post Did Jamaal Bowman Primary Bring AOC & Nick Fuentes Together? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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