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WIll Israel-Iran Conflict Spiral Out of Control — or Will Both Sides Play It Safe?
Iranians attend an anti-Israel rally in Tehran, Iran, April 19, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
The geopolitical tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the State of Israel have long been a focal point of Middle Eastern politics, drawing global attention due to their potential implications for regional stability and international security.
This article examines the recent developments in Iran-Israel relations by analyzing Iran’s military capabilities, its nuclear ambitions, the rhetoric of the conflict, and the implications of Iranian terrorism. The discussion navigates through these elements to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strategic postures and potential scenarios that might unfold in the future.
Military Capabilities and Deficiencies
Recent confrontations between Iran and Israel have shed light on critical vulnerabilities within Iran’s military infrastructure, particularly in air defense and deterrence mechanisms. The effectiveness of Iran’s air defenses was questioned critically following Israel’s successful penetration of Iranian airspace, which revealed not only technical deficiencies, but also strategic shortcomings in Iran’s approach to regional security. These incidents have led to an evaluation of Iran’s military posture as potentially more symbolic than pragmatic, challenging the perceived robustness of its defense strategy.
Nuclear Ambitions and International Treaties
One of the most contentious issues in Iran-Israel relations is Iran’s nuclear program. There is growing concern that Iran might withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and openly pursue nuclear weapons. This potential shift is alarming for global security architectures, and reflects Iran’s frustration with international constraints that have not led to economic or political gains promised by global powers at various junctures.
Just this week, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Mariano Grossi said that Iran’s recent nuclear activity “raises eyebrows” — which is an extremely worrying sign.
The possibility of Iran declaring its intention to develop a nuclear bomb — or just to do so without announcing this to the world — would escalate tensions significantly, prompting a reevaluation of security strategies by multiple states, particularly Israel and the United States.
Perception vs. Reality of Military Strength
Despite its assertive rhetoric and occasional show of military force, Iran has often been described as a “paper tiger,” a term that implies its actual capabilities do not match its portrayed strength. This analysis suggests that while Iran has made significant strides in military technology and capabilities since the Cold War, its actual ability to project power and sustain prolonged military engagements is limited, when paired with Israeli and American countermeasures.
But those countermeasures certainly aren’t exhaustive or unlimited, and it’s unknown what power Iran might possess in a full-blown conflict. Still, this discrepancy between perception and reality affects Iran’s strategic calculations and its interactions with neighboring countries and the international community. The international response to Iran’s attack on Israel demonstrates that Iran has a number of countries that are trying to thwart its malicious activities.
Avoidance of Full-Scale Warfare
Given its strategic limitations, Iran is likely to avoid full-scale warfare. For Iran, the cost of such conflict would be catastrophic, particularly considering the potential for international isolation and the probable direct confrontations with technologically superior forces like those of the United States and Israel. Instead, Iran might continue to leverage asymmetric warfare tactics, including proxy wars, terrorism, and using political influence in neighboring regions, as a means to extend its influence without engaging in direct, conventional warfare.
Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare
The increase in activity of Iran’s terrorist cells in regions like the Northern Hemisphere and the Middle East suggests a strategic pivot towards asymmetric warfare. This form of engagement allows Iran to exert influence and retaliate against adversaries without direct military confrontations, which could lead to rapid escalation and uncontrollable consequences. The intensification of such activities has implications for regional security, necessitating a coordinated response from affected states to address the root causes and manifestations of state-sponsored terrorism.
The Nature of the Iran-Israel Conflict
Despite the severe rhetoric and military posturing, the Iran-Israel conflict exhibits a pattern of controlled escalation. Both nations are aware of the potential for a full-scale conflict to spiral out of control, suggesting a mutual, albeit unspoken, understanding that limits the scope of their engagements. This tacit acknowledgment dictates much of the strategic interaction between the two, with both sides aiming to manage the conflict within certain boundaries, avoiding actions that could trigger an all-out war.
The Iran-Israel dynamic is a complex interplay of military strategy, political survival, and regional influence. While Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear ambitions pose significant challenges, its strategic behavior suggests a preference for indirect engagement over direct conflict. The state’s use of terrorism as a tool of foreign policy is particularly concerning and highlights the broader implications of Iran’s regional strategy. Understanding these elements is crucial for policymakers and analysts working to mitigate risks and foster stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
Erfan Fard is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. Twitter@EQFARD
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Hamas Says No Interim Hostage Deal Possible Without Work Toward Permanent Ceasefire
Explosions send smoke into the air in Gaza, as seen from the Israeli side of the border, July 17, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
The spokesperson for Hamas’s armed wing said on Friday that while the Palestinian terrorist group favors reaching an interim truce in the Gaza war, if such an agreement is not reached in current negotiations it could revert to insisting on a full package deal to end the conflict.
Hamas has previously offered to release all the hostages held in Gaza and conclude a permanent ceasefire agreement, and Israel has refused, Abu Ubaida added in a televised speech.
Arab mediators Qatar and Egypt, backed by the United States, have hosted more than 10 days of talks on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day truce in the war.
Israeli officials were not immediately available for comment on the eve of the Jewish Sabbath.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on a call he had with Pope Leo on Friday that Israel‘s efforts to secure a hostage release deal and 60-day ceasefire “have so far not been reciprocated by Hamas.”
As part of the potential deal, 10 hostages held in Gaza would be returned along with the bodies of 18 others, spread out over 60 days. In exchange, Israel would release a number of detained Palestinians.
“If the enemy remains obstinate and evades this round as it has done every time before, we cannot guarantee a return to partial deals or the proposal of the 10 captives,” said Abu Ubaida.
Disputes remain over maps of Israeli army withdrawals, aid delivery mechanisms into Gaza, and guarantees that any eventual truce would lead to ending the war, said two Hamas officials who spoke to Reuters on Friday.
The officials said the talks have not reached a breakthrough on the issues under discussion.
Hamas says any agreement must lead to ending the war, while Netanyahu says the war will only end once Hamas is disarmed and its leaders expelled from Gaza.
Almost 1,650 Israelis and foreign nationals have been killed as a result of the conflict, including 1,200 killed in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel, according to Israeli tallies. Over 250 hostages were kidnapped during Hamas’s Oct. 7 onslaught.
Israel responded with an ongoing military campaign aimed at freeing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities in neighboring Gaza.
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Iran Marks 31st Anniversary of AMIA Bombing by Slamming Argentina’s ‘Baseless’ Accusations, Blaming Israel
People hold images of the victims of the 1994 bombing attack on the Argentine Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA) community center, marking the 30th anniversary of the attack, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, July 18, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Irina Dambrauskas
Iran on Friday marked the 31st anniversary of the 1994 bombing of the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish community center in Buenos Aires by slamming Argentina for what it called “baseless” accusations over Tehran’s alleged role in the terrorist attack and accusing Israel of politicizing the atrocity to influence the investigation and judicial process.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the anniversary of Argentina’s deadliest terrorist attack, which killed 85 people and wounded more than 300.
“While completely rejecting the accusations against Iranian citizens, the Islamic Republic of Iran condemns attempts by certain Argentine factions to pressure the judiciary into issuing baseless charges and politically motivated rulings,” the statement read.
“Reaffirming that the charges against its citizens are unfounded, the Islamic Republic of Iran insists on restoring their reputation and calls for an end to this staged legal proceeding,” it continued.
Last month, a federal judge in Argentina ordered the trial in absentia of 10 Iranian and Lebanese nationals suspected of orchestrating the attack in Buenos Aires.
The ten suspects set to stand trial include former Iranian and Lebanese ministers and diplomats, all of whom are subject to international arrest warrants issued by Argentina for their alleged roles in the terrorist attack.
In its statement on Friday, Iran also accused Israel of influencing the investigation to advance a political campaign against the Islamist regime in Tehran, claiming the case has been used to serve Israeli interests and hinder efforts to uncover the truth.
“From the outset, elements and entities linked to the Zionist regime [Israel] exploited this suspicious explosion, pushing the investigation down a false and misleading path, among whose consequences was to disrupt the long‑standing relations between the people of Iran and Argentina,” the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
“Clear, undeniable evidence now shows the Zionist regime and its affiliates exerting influence on the Argentine judiciary to frame Iranian nationals,” the statement continued.
In April, lead prosecutor Sebastián Basso — who took over the case after the 2015 murder of his predecessor, Alberto Nisman — requested that federal Judge Daniel Rafecas issue national and international arrest warrants for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over his alleged involvement in the attack.
Since 2006, Argentine authorities have sought the arrest of eight Iranians — including former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who died in 2017 — yet more than three decades after the deadly bombing, all suspects remain still at large.
In a post on X, the Delegation of Argentine Israelite Associations (DAIA), the country’s Jewish umbrella organization, released a statement commemorating the 31st anniversary of the bombing.
“It was a brutal attack on Argentina, its democracy, and its rule of law,” the group said. “At DAIA, we continue to demand truth and justice — because impunity is painful, and memory is a commitment to both the present and the future.”
31 años del atentado a la AMIA – DAIA. 31 años sin justicia.
El 18 de julio de 1994, un atentado terrorista dejó 85 personas muertas y más de 300 heridas. Fue un ataque brutal contra la Argentina, su democracia y su Estado de derecho.
Desde la DAIA, seguimos exigiendo verdad y… pic.twitter.com/kV2ReGNTIk
— DAIA (@DAIAArgentina) July 18, 2025
Despite Argentina’s longstanding belief that Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah terrorist group carried out the devastating attack at Iran’s request, the 1994 bombing has never been claimed or officially solved.
Meanwhile, Tehran has consistently denied any involvement and refused to arrest or extradite any suspects.
To this day, the decades-long investigation into the terrorist attack has been plagued by allegations of witness tampering, evidence manipulation, cover-ups, and annulled trials.
In 2006, former prosecutor Nisman formally charged Iran for orchestrating the attack and Hezbollah for carrying it out.
Nine years later, he accused former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner — currently under house arrest on corruption charges — of attempting to cover up the crime and block efforts to extradite the suspects behind the AMIA atrocity in return for Iranian oil.
Nisman was killed later that year, and to this day, both his case and murder remain unresolved and under ongoing investigation.
The alleged cover-up was reportedly formalized through the memorandum of understanding signed in 2013 between Kirchner’s government and Iranian authorities, with the stated goal of cooperating to investigate the AMIA bombing.
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Jordan Reveals Muslim Brotherhood Operating Vast Illegal Funding Network Tied to Gaza Donations, Political Campaigns
Murad Adailah, the head of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood, attends an interview with Reuters in Amman, Jordan, Sept. 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jehad Shelbak
The Muslim Brotherhood, one of the Arab world’s oldest and most influential Islamist movements, has been implicated in a wide-ranging network of illegal financial activities in Jordan and abroad, according to a new investigative report.
Investigations conducted by Jordanian authorities — along with evidence gathered from seized materials — revealed that the Muslim Brotherhood raised tens of millions of Jordanian dinars through various illegal activities, the Jordan news agency (Petra) reported this week.
With operations intensifying over the past eight years, the report showed that the group’s complex financial network was funded through various sources, including illegal donations, profits from investments in Jordan and abroad, and monthly fees paid by members inside and outside the country.
The report also indicated that the Muslim Brotherhood has taken advantage of the war in Gaza to raise donations illegally.
Out of all donations meant for Gaza, the group provided no information on where the funds came from, how much was collected, or how they were distributed, and failed to work with any international or relief organizations to manage the transfers properly.
Rather, the investigations revealed that the Islamist network used illicit financial mechanisms to transfer funds abroad.
According to Jordanian authorities, the group gathered more than JD 30 million (around $42 million) over recent years.
With funds transferred to several Arab, regional, and foreign countries, part of the money was allegedly used to finance domestic political campaigns in 2024, as well as illegal activities and cells.
In April, Jordan outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, the country’s most vocal opposition group, and confiscated its assets after members of the Islamist movement were found to be linked to a sabotage plot.
The movement’s political arm in Jordan, the Islamic Action Front, became the largest political grouping in parliament after elections last September, although most seats are still held by supporters of the government.
Opponents of the group, which is banned in most Arab countries, label it a terrorist organization. However, the movement claims it renounced violence decades ago and now promotes its Islamist agenda through peaceful means.
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