On February 28, the world witnessed the commencement of Operation “Roaring Lion,” a watershed moment in Middle Eastern security. This strategic collaboration between the Israel Defense Forces and US forces represents a direct challenge to the Iranian-led radical Shia axis, which has long held the region in a stranglehold.

As Hezbollah joins the fray, indiscriminately expanding its rocket fire toward central and southern Israel, we are once again forced to confront a fateful, recurring question: How do we prevent the next inevitable ceasefire from becoming nothing more than the starting line for Hezbollah’s next rearmament?

The failure of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement serves as a grim reminder that diplomatic promises without enforcement are a death sentence. That agreement was systematically violated by Hezbollah, while the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), predictably, either could not or would not assert the state’s sovereignty.

This vacuum of authority necessitated hundreds of Israeli surgical strikes to thwart the reconstruction of terror infrastructure in South Lebanon. To ensure that the residents of Northern Israel can finally raise their children in long-term security, we must stop repeating the same failed patterns while expecting a different result. We require a holistic approach, one that doesn’t just clip Hezbollah’s wings, but dismantles its very foundation.

True victory requires the IDF to continue deepening its strikes against Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, but with a specific political end state in mind: enabling Lebanese sovereignty. This objective is not merely about removing an immediate tactical threat; it is about creating a power vacuum that necessitates action from the Lebanese state.

For too long, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the Lebanese government have remained weak and deterred, paralyzed by Hezbollah’s military dominance. However, following Operation “Northern Arrows” in late 2024 and the current pressures of 2026, we are witnessing the first genuine flickers of courage. Lebanese politicians and media figures are no longer whispering their dissent; they are acting on it.

A profound example of this shift is the recent detention of Ali Barrou, a prominent pro-Hezbollah journalist and mouthpiece for the organization’s propaganda, by state security forces. Even more significant is the extraordinary declaration by the Lebanese Foreign Minister, calling for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador from Beirut.

To the casual observer, these might seem like isolated diplomatic or legal maneuvers, but in the Lebanese context, they represent a tectonic shift in the internal balance of power. These actions signal that the paralyzing fear of Hezbollah is beginning to erode, and the state apparatus is finally attempting to reclaim its authority from its foreign-backed occupier.

Ending the organization’s military dominance is the essential fuel for this domestic defiance; without it, the Lebanese state will never find the spine to enforce its own laws, such as the constitutional ban on non-state actors holding weapons.

Yet, military pressure alone is insufficient because Hezbollah is not merely a militia; it is a “state within a state.” For decades, it has built a parallel civil society that is the secret to its endurance and the primary source of its grip on the Shia community.

Central to this is Al-Qard Al-Hasan, which functions as Hezbollah’s private, unregulated banking system. Because it operates outside the global banking network, it allows the organization to launder money and provide interest-free loans to its supporters, effectively bypassing international sanctions and “buying” the loyalty of the Shia street.

Similarly, the Jihad al-Bina construction wing serves as the organization’s shadow ministry of housing, rebuilding homes damaged in conflicts to ensure that supporters remain dependent on Hezbollah rather than the Lebanese government. These efforts are bolstered by welfare networks like Mu’asasat al-Shahid (The Martyr’s Foundation), which provides lifelong financial support to the families of fallen operatives.

By systematically targeting the financial and logistical pillars of these institutions, Israel can decouple the Shia population from Hezbollah’s influence. We are already seeing the cracks in this facade: the organization’s current inability to pay rent for displaced Shia supporters whose homes were destroyed has sparked unprecedented internal friction and public grumbling.

The opportunity to cut these lifelines has reached a critical, historical juncture. The geopolitical landscape of 2026 is vastly different from previous rounds of conflict. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the Maduro regime in Venezuela has shattered the “Narcoterror” routes that previously funneled billions of dollars into Hezbollah’s coffers via captagon and cocaine trafficking.

Combined with the domestic instability in Iran, which has forced Tehran to prioritize its own survival over its proxies, a rare window has opened to “dry up” Hezbollah’s resources. This shift is not a naive scenario; it is an attainable strategic goal.

If Israel does not succumb to international pressures for a premature ceasefire before these civil and military conditions are met, we can fundamentally change the regional equation. Only when Hezbollah loses its military assets and its ability to provide for the “Shia Street” can the Lebanese army be compelled to enforce true sovereignty. This is the only path toward a “New Lebanon” — a state that no longer poses an existential threat to its neighbors.

Only on that “clear day” can we begin to discuss diplomatic processes that lead to lasting peace rather than just a temporary pause in an endless war.

Lt. Col. (Res.) Eyal Dror served in the Israel Defense Forces for 31 years, specializing in civil-military coordination and humanitarian operations. He served as the Head of the Operations Branch for COGAT (Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories) and was the founding commander of “Operation Good Neighbor,” the IDF’s humanitarian mission to Syrian civilians. He is a resident of Kibbutz Dafna near the Lebanese border, and the author of Embracing the Enemy.