Andrew Cuomo is entering the final stretch of the New York City mayoral race with high expectations. After a bitter defeat in the Democratic primary to Zohran Mamdani in June, the political scion and former governor is betting that a different and more motivated electorate will give him a second chance.

Cuomo, who is running in the general election as an independent, is buoyed by signs that the city’s older, more moderate voters, and Jewish voters, are turning out in greater numbers than the progressive, younger bloc that powered Mamdani’s primary victory.

Early voting data show a notable surge in turnout from heavily Jewish and Black neighborhoods during the first few days, a shift that could narrow the gap in a race that polls show is tightening.

For Cuomo, that’s a reason for optimism. “I’m working 24/7, and there’s much more information out there now about Mamdani,” he said in a recent interview. “And the more they know, the more frightened they are.”

Mamdani’s positions on Israel have roiled New York’s Jewish community — the largest outside of Israel — despite an increased effort to court them.

The growing awareness of Mamdani’s rhetoric and positions has sparked voter registration drives across Brooklyn’s Orthodox community, early voting mobilization efforts, and an unprecedented wave of prominent rabbis publicly urging support for Cuomo as the only viable candidate to defeat Mamdani. Some Orthodox voting blocs, who supported Cuomo in the primary and were influential in Eric Adams’ victory in 2021, have reissued their endorsements in recent days.

Dov Hikind, a former Democratic assemblyman who became a Republican and initially backed Curtis Sliwa before switching his support to Cuomo earlier this week, said the current level of engagement in the community rivals the intense voter turnout of 1993, when Rudy Giuliani defeated incumbent Mayor David Dinkins by a little more than 40,000 votes. Dinkins was accused of restraining the police and allowing rioters to harm the Jewish community during the 1991 riots in Crown Heights. Exit polls showed that Giuliani received 67% of the Jewish vote, including nearly 100% in Orthodox neighborhoods.

“I have never seen anything like it, never in my life,” Hikind said. “People are truly concerned about Mamdani getting elected.”

Still, the math is daunting. Mamdani continues to hold a double-digit lead over Cuomo, while Sliwa has vowed to remain in the race despite Republican pleas for him to step aside.

Jews make up an estimated 10% of the general election electorate, and their strong backing for Cuomo in the primary was too little to overcome the city’s shifting political landscape. More than a third of Jewish voters support Mamdani, according to recent polls, and several liberal Jewish election officials are backing him.

“I think our community can help to make a difference and to stop the normalization of casual antisemitism in New York’s political environment,” said Sara Forman, executive director of the New York Solidarity Network, a pro-Israel political organization. A post-primary survey sponsored by the group found that 58% of Jewish voters believe Mamdani’s leadership would make the city less safe for Jews.

To pull off an upset, Cuomo will need not only strong margins in Jewish and Black precincts but also undecided moderates to rally around him, accompanied by a diminished youth turnout. Voters over 55 accounted for more than half of those who cast ballots during the first two days of early voting, while youth turnout was notably lower.

What Jewish leaders are saying 

Mamdani’s victory in June marked a watershed moment in New York politics — the first time a self-described democratic socialist and outspoken critic of Israel became the Democratic Party’s nominee and the favorite to govern the city. Some Jewish leaders gave the 33-year-old candidate a chance to reach out and clarify his past statements.

Professor Ester Fuchs, director of the urban and social policy program at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, said Mamdani had an opportunity “to demonstrate that Muslims and Jews can work together constructively to make our city a better place for everyone.” Fuchs, who worked with the Dinkins and in the Michael Bloomberg administration, said after the primary that Mamdani would first need to build trust with the Jewish community. “He needs to demonstrate and he needs to make clear that he understands how we need to protect every community in the city,” she said.

While he did outline his plan to fight antisemitism and commit to protecting Jews in private meetings with rabbis and Jewish political leaders, the Democratic nominee didn’t do much to assuage those concerns.

He faced scrutiny for: refusing to outright condemn the slogan “globalize the intifada;” holding back from celebrating the ceasefire in Gaza — which he had called for since the start of the war — and the release of the last living hostages; repeating his pledge to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits the city; and saying he doesn’t recognize Israel as a Jewish state. He is the first major party nominee to pledge to publicly back the movement to boycott Israel as mayor. On Tuesday, Mamdani declined to say whether he stands by comments made in a newly surfaced 2023 video in which he said that the New York Police Department’s boots are “laced by the IDF.” A recent poll showed that 75% of Jewish voters hold an unfavorable view of Mamdani.

Forman said Mamdani had a chance to sway opinion about him after his victory by toning down the rhetoric and walking back some of his statements. She said that those people “who were resolved to just hang their heads after the primary have started to hold their heads up a little higher” in recent weeks and go public with their opposition, as a reaction to the idea that New York City could elect a mayor who is not very supportive of the Jewish community writ large.

That shift led to a split among rabbis, many breaking tradition to issue political endorsements. Rabbi Elliot Cosgrove of Park Avenue Synagogue openly urged congregants to back Cuomo, calling Mamdani a threat to Jewish security. Rabbi Chaim Steinmetz of Manhattan’s Kehilath Jeshurun wrote in an open letter that Mamdani “represents a genuine threat to our city and way of life.” And more than 1,100 rabbis from across the nation have signed a statement opposing Mamdani.

Meanwhile, Rabbi Angela Buchdahl of Central Synagogue reaffirmed her congregation’s stance against endorsements. Rabbi Rick Jacobs, president of the Union for Reform Judaism and head of the largest Jewish movement in the U.S., wrote that crossing the line into electioneering is the wrong approach. “Keeping partisan politics out of our politically diverse congregations feels more essential than ever in today’s polarized climate,” he said.

Cuomo backed out Tuesday, at the last minute, from speaking to 210 members of Congregation Beth Elohim in Brooklyn, in a town hall series for the mayoral candidates, which Mamdani addressed earlier this month.

Hikind, who caused an uproar by wearing blackface for Purim in 2013, didn’t mince words about what’s at stake for Jewish voters in this election. “Look, Mamdani wins, Hamas in Gaza will celebrate because it will be their victory,” Hikind said. ”He’s one of their boys. I am not saying he indulged in terror. But they will celebrate, no question. Our enemies all over the world will see this as a great victory.”

Mamdani accused his opponents of targeting him because he’s the first Muslim favored to become mayor of New York. His campaign did not provide details about its outreach to Jewish voters despite multiple requests. Several progressive Jewish groups — The Jewish Vote, affiliated with Jews For Racial & Economic Justice, Bend the Arc and Jewish Voice for Peace Action — are actively campaigning for Mamdani.

On Tuesday, Mamdani posted a video with famed Jewish actor Mandy Patinkin and his wife, actress Kathryn Grody, urging voters to elect “this extraordinary human being who’s going to lead our city.”

Phylisa Wisdom, the executive director of the liberal New York Jewish Agenda, said the Jewish community is very diverse in its attitude towards Mamdani. “I think there are some Jewish New Yorkers for whom total agreement on Israel is required in their mayor,” she said. “And there are many Jewish New Yorkers who acknowledge that they don’t agree with him on Israel, and that’s not a barrier to voting for someone in a municipal election in the way that it may be for Congress or for president.”

Whether or not Jews will be the tipping point, the surge in turnout could definitely help fuel Cuomo’s comeback, Forman said. “I’d like to be optimistic and say the turnout that we’re seeing right now will continue through the end of the election, and this is going to be a very close election,” she said.

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