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Trump’s Iran dithering puts Israel in an unprecedented position
Israel today finds itself in an unusual strategic position: It’s fighting a war that could last for weeks — or end almost instantly. And someone else will decide which way things go.
Down one path lies a prolonged campaign against Iran, with the possibility of regime change. Israel’s leaders openly hope that the campaign will enable the Iranian people to overthrow their rulers. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently put it bluntly: “Our aspiration is to enable the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny.”
Down the other is a rapid cessation of the conflict, with incomplete results. President Donald Trump has already suggested that the conflict may be nearing completion. In a Monday interview with CBS News, Trump said bluntly: “The war is very complete, pretty much.”
Yet in the very same news cycle, Trump offered a strikingly different message. When asked whether the war was essentially over or just beginning, he replied: “I think you could say both.” He suggested he was considering the possibility of taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical global oil chokepoint, and warned on social media that if Iran interfered with shipping there, the United States would strike it “20 times harder than they have been hit thus far.”
Those contradictory statements capture the extraordinary ambiguity surrounding the conflict. And that ambiguity has left Israel in a profoundly complicated position. Now, it must be prepared simultaneously for two radically different scenarios: a prolonged war whose outcome could reshape the Middle East, or a sudden declaration that the conflict is over.
A successful start, and mixed outlook
So far, Israeli and American forces have struck deep inside Iran, decapitating the regime and crippling major parts of military infrastructure. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks against Israel, most of which have been intercepted by Israel’s air defenses, but some of which have brought tragedy.
In recent days, Tehran has picked a new supreme leader: Mojtaba Khamenei, a hardliner and the son of the longtime despot killed on the first day of the war.
If the conflict continues on this trajectory, the implications could be enormous. Sustained pressure on Iran could destabilize the regime. Even without that best-case scenario outcome, a prolonged campaign could dramatically weaken the Islamic Republic.
But a long war carries real dangers. Iran still possesses missiles capable of reaching Israel, and has been firing them daily. Israel’s multilayered defense system intercepts most of them, but not all. A cluster missile strike on Monday killed two; if the war continues, more deaths are likely to follow. And the longer the war lasts, the greater the statistical likelihood that one missile will slip through and cause a true catastrophe.
Even without a disaster, the cumulative strain on Israeli society is unmistakable. The acquisition of weapons and callup of reserve troops is further disrupting an economy that has been in various states of disruption since Oct. 7, 2023. It is also measured in the unquantifiable damage that the stress is causing pretty much every person in the country.
Many businesses are closed, and public life is minimal. Missile alerts — often in the middle of the night — repeatedly send millions of civilians into shelters (and, for a privileged minority, reinforced “safe rooms” in their home). Many offices are half empty. Parents struggle to work while caring for children who are afraid to leave the house.
With ordinary life on hold, a prolonged war could therefore become a grinding economic and psychological burden, even if Israel continues to win militarily.
Yet Israelis broadly support the war. A poll last week found that 93% of the populace backs the operation.
How will they respond if Trump abruptly pulls the plug?
War by whim
To a degree that is profoundly unusual in the history of democratic countries, the trajectory of the war depends largely on one person.
Trump has shown himself to be prone to making unilateral decisions with enormous consequences for the international order without undergoing any of the standard processes.
He launched sweeping tariff wars that upended decades of bipartisan policy on the benefits of relatively free trade. He revived the idea that the U.S. should acquire Greenland — and for weeks refused to rule out using force against Denmark, a NATO ally, to achieve that end. Earlier this year, American forces kidnapped Venezuela’s president, after which Trump openly stated that the U.S. needs “access” to the country’s oil resources.
Even the rhetoric surrounding the Iran campaign is sui generis. In recounting why American forces had sunk Iranian naval vessels rather than capturing them, he approvingly relayed that he was supposedly told by commanders that it was simply “more fun to sink them.”
If Trump decides he is done, and the Islamic Republic limps on, Israelis will be left with the frustrating sense of having missed a huge opportunity to fundamentally alter an unacceptable situation in which Iran is constantly scheming to cause harm.
Iran has been, essentially, a fly the size of an elephant buzzing in Israel’s ear. Yes, the war will be spun as victory either way — but if it ends tomorrow, it will end without achieving all it could. And the current state of affairs, in which Israel effectively has a green light from a U.S. president as indifferent to convention as Trump, may not return.
A reopened Lebanon front
One complication that could outlast either of these scenarios is Hezbollah. The Lebanon-based militia, a regional proxy for Iran, joined the fighting almost immediately, launching rockets and drones toward northern Israel. That intervention may give Israel a strategic opportunity to address a problem that has festered since post-Oct. 7 fighting ended on the Lebanon front in November, 2024.
When that conflict concluded, the Lebanese government pledged that it would dismantle and disarm Hezbollah, finally restoring the state’s monopoly on force. In practice, little changed. Hezbollah remained entrenched in parts of central Lebanon, albeit no longer along Israel’s border.
Israeli patience with this renewed status quo has steadily eroded. But the devastation of the Gaza war had badly damaged Israel’s international standing, making Jerusalem see a renewed Lebanon campaign as diplomatically difficult.
Now, the regional picture has shifted. Lebanese officials — including the country’s president — have increasingly signaled that Hezbollah’s continued militarization is unsustainable. Beirut has in recent days already taken steps to curb Iranian influence, including by restricting activity by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Senior figures have made clear that Hezbollah’s role as an armed “state within a state” cannot continue indefinitely.
Elements of Lebanon’s government clearly hope Israel might finish a task they cannot accomplish themselves — the decisive debilitation of Hezbollah — though preferably without bringing another devastating war onto Lebanese soil.
What this means: Israel is likely to be at war, in some way or another, for some time to come. Trump may call time on the war with Iran; he has no such power when it comes to Israel’s own border conflicts.
But the biggest challenges, and biggest changes, facing Israel belong with the Iran war, which has the potential to truly redefine the region. Netanyahu may wield some influence over Trump, but the decision rests with the White House.
This is an unprecedented state of affairs in Israel’s history: A perilous war of aggression, conducted without real Israeli control. The cost of this is whiplash, as the country has no choice but to live with both possibilities at once: a long war that could reshape the region — or a sudden declaration that the war has been won. Netanyahu may be able to influence Trump one way or the other — but he won’t make the call.
For Israelis, that is the rub in the hyper-alliance with Trump’s U.S. Next month, as Israel celebrates its 78th Independence Day, that independence will feel a tad fictitious. An extreme dependency lies bare for all to see, and it will outlive Trump. His successor may not be as munificent.
The post Trump’s Iran dithering puts Israel in an unprecedented position appeared first on The Forward.
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Iran Says It Has Sent Response to US Peace Proposal
People walk past a billboard with a graphic design about the Strait of Hormuz on a building, in Tehran, Iran, May 4, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Iran has sent its response to a US proposal for peace talks to end the war, Iranian state media reported on Sunday, as two ships were allowed to pass through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
The response focused on ending the war on all fronts, especially Lebanon, and on the safety of shipping through the strait, Iranian state TV said, without indicating how or when the vital waterway might reopen.
It followed a US proposal to end fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.
Pakistan, which has been mediating talks over the war, forwarded the Iranian response to the US, a Pakistani official said. There was no immediate US comment.
Despite a month-old ceasefire in the conflict and after some 48 hours of relative calm, hostile drones were detected over several Gulf countries on Sunday, underlining the threat still facing the region.
Still, the QatarEnergy-operated carrier Al Kharaitiyat passed safely through the strait and was heading for Pakistan’s Port Qasim, according to data from shipping analytics firm Kpler, the first Qatari vessel carrying liquefied natural gas to cross the strait since the US and Israel started the war on February 28.
Sources said earlier the transfer, which offered a modicum of relief to Pakistan after a wave of power blackouts caused by a halt to gas imports, had been approved by Iran to build confidence with Pakistan and with Qatar, another mediator.
In addition, a Panama-flagged bulk carrier bound for Brazil that had previously attempted to transit the strait on May 4 passed through, using a route designated by Iran’s armed forces, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday.
TRUMP UNDER PRESSURE TO END WAR AHEAD OF CHINA VISIT
With US President Donald Trump due to visit China this week, there has been mounting pressure to draw a line under the war, which has ignited a global energy crisis and poses a growing threat to the world economy.
Tehran has largely blocked non-Iranian shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and has emerged as one of the central pressure points in the war.
Addressing whether combat operations against Iran were over, Trump said in remarks aired on Sunday: “They are defeated, but that doesn’t mean they’re done.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war was not over because there was “more work to be done” to remove enriched uranium from Iran, dismantle enrichment sites and address Iran’s proxies and ballistic missile capabilities.
The best way to remove the enriched uranium would be through diplomacy, Netanyahu said in an interview with CBS News’ “60 Minutes,” without ruling out removing it by force.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a social media post that Iran would “never bow down to the enemy” and would “defend national interests with strength”.
Despite diplomatic efforts to break a deadlock, the threat to shipping lanes and the economies of the region remained high.
On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates said it intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar condemned a drone attack that hit a cargo ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters. Kuwait said its air defences had dealt with hostile drones that entered its airspace.
Recent days have seen the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the strait since a ceasefire began: the UAE came under renewed attack on Friday and sporadic clashes were reported between Iranian forces and US vessels in the strait.
Clashes have also continued in southern Lebanon between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced on April 16.
Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reignited on March 2 when the Lebanese group opened fire after Tehran came under US-Israeli attack. The latest talks between Israel and Lebanon are due to start in Washington on May 14.
INTERNATIONAL MISSION PREPARATIONS DRAW IRANIAN WARNING
Though Washington imposed its own blockade on Iranian vessels last month, Tehran has taken its time before responding to calls to end a war that surveys show is unpopular with US voters facing ever-higher gasoline prices.
The US has also found little international support, with NATO allies refusing calls to send ships to open the Strait of Hormuz without a full peace deal and an internationally mandated mission.
Britain, which has been working with France on a proposal to ensure safe transit through the strait once the situation stabilizes, said on Saturday it was deploying a warship to the Middle East in preparation for such a mission, following a similar move by France.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on social media that any stationing of British, French or other warships around the Strait of Hormuz under the pretext of “protecting shipping” would be an escalation and would be met by force.
In response, French President Emmanuel Macron said France was standing ready to help the international mission, but “we have never envisaged a military deployment to re-open Hormuz.”
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Jonathan Pollard Tells i24news: US-Israel Alliance Is ‘Finished’; He Is Entering Israeli Politics
Jonathan Pollard, a former US Navy intelligence officer convicted of spying for Israel, exits following a hearing at the Manhattan Federal Courthouse, in New York City, May 17, 2017. Photo: Reuters / Brendan McDermid / File.
i24 News – Jonathan Pollard, the former US Navy intelligence analyst who served 30 years in an American prison for spying for Israel, told i24NEWS in an exclusive interview Saturday that he is entering Israeli politics, declaring that every party currently sitting in the Knesset has “blood on its hands” from the October 7 massacre and that the US-Israel alliance is “finished.”
Speaking via Zoom on Sunday with i24NEWS Senior Correspondent Owen Alterman, Pollard announced he would run with a small party that has yet to clear the electoral threshold, saying he could not in good conscience join any existing Knesset party. “Every single legacy party that is in this Knesset bears a responsibility for the disaster that occurred on October 7,” he said. “The misconception started long before. And it was the mismanagement and the lack of oversight by the civilian governments that allowed them to get away with this disaster.”
Pollard was pointed in his criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, dismissing suggestions that he owed the premier gratitude for his release. “God brought me home because it was a miracle,” he said, crediting his late wife Esther, Ron Dermer, and Sheldon and Miriam Adelson for fighting for his freedom. “Bibi, you know, he let my wife almost starve to death on the streets of Jerusalem before he deigned to see her.” He also rejected Netanyahu’s claim that Israel had achieved a “war of rebirth,” saying, “We haven’t defeated our enemies. There isn’t one enemy, one of the fronts, of the multi-fronts, that has been decisively defeated.”
Pollard reserved some of his sharpest words for Israel’s ultra-Orthodox political parties, describing Shas as “a criminal enterprise” and United Torah Judaism as “a shakedown operation.” “The problem with the Haredim is that they haven’t gotten out of the ghetto, the shtetl,” he said, directing his criticism at the leadership rather than the community. “They don’t seem to understand that when you live in this country as a citizen, when you take money from the government, you owe the government something.” He called IDF soldiers serving hundreds of days in combat “sacred heroes” and said it was “disgusting” and “insulting” for Haredi leadership to equate military service with serving in a foreign army.
On the United States, Pollard was equally blunt, calling President Donald Trump “very dangerous” and saying he did not know what Trump’s “North Star” or values were. When Alterman noted Trump was widely popular in Israel, Pollard replied, “That just shows you how stupid a lot of people in this country really are.” He said Trump was “pro-money” rather than antisemitic and accused Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, whom he called “Tweedledum and Tweedledee,” of being “only interested in one thing, and that’s their bank account.” He also accused the Trump administration of deliberately preventing Israel from achieving decisive victories against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran. “They don’t want us to win anything decisively,” he said.
Pollard said the US-Israel alliance had fundamentally broken down, predicting that the next American election would offer Israel “a very bad choice between bad and worse.” “This alliance is finished,” he said flatly. When asked whether his entry into politics was more about speaking truth to power than actually seeking office, Pollard said he was prepared to serve “in whatever capacity is appropriate,” and left voters with a direct message: “If they want to make sure that there is never again an October 7, you better vote for someone like me rather than Bibi Netanyahu or Naftali Bennett or Gadi Eisenkot.”
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UAE Says Air Defenses Dealt with Two Drones Coming from Iran
Drones are seen at a site at an undisclosed location in Iran, in this handout image obtained on April 20, 2023. Photo: Iranian Army/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
The United Arab Emirates’ air defenses dealt with two drones coming from Iran on Sunday, the Defense Ministry said, the latest in renewed attacks on the oil-rich Gulf country.
The UAE has reported being attacked in the past days by Iran after four weeks of relative calm since a ceasefire in the Iran war was announced by the United States.
Iran has denied carrying out operations against the UAE in recent days, yet it warned of a “crushing response” if any actions were launched from the UAE against it.
The attacks prompted the UAE to shift to remote learning for schools last week, but authorities said on Sunday that in-person learning would resume from Monday.