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Thomas Friedman explains how devastating Israel’s attacks on Iran have been
By BERNIE BELLAN I’m not sure how many readers follow Thomas Friedman’s writing in the New York Times; after all, he’s been highly critical of Netanyahu for years, which probably makes him persona non grata for a lot of you.
But, on Tuesday, November 26, Friedman wrote a piece that was so particularly incisive – and came across as so laudatory of what Israel has been able to achieve in the past 13 months, that even diehard Friedman critics should be able to take some very meaningful lessons away from that column.
Toward the beginning of what he wrote, Friedman makes what, for most readers of his columns, would probably be perceived as a fairly shocking statement when he writes: “In just the last two months, the Israeli military has inflicted a defeat on Iran that approaches its 1967 Six-Day War defeat of Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Full stop.”
He goes on to describe what Israel has been able to do to Hezbollah in the past few months as so destructive of that terrorist organization’s abilities that “Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran have decided to delink themselves from Hamas in Gaza and stop the firing from Lebanon for the first time since Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas invaded Israel.”
Friedman then provides some very interesting information about how effective two attacks Israel launched against Iran – one in April and then one in October, were, both in inflicting tremendous damage to Iran’s capability to defend itself against a full scale Israeli attack – should one be launched, and in undermining Iran’s confidence that it can continue to arm Hezbollah without severe repercussions.
Here is what Friedman wrote:
“There is a reason for this (Hezbollah’s agreeing to a cease fire). Hezbollah’s mother ship has suffered a real blow. According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s April strike on Iran eliminated one of four Russian-supplied S-300 surface-to-air missile defense batteries around Tehran, and Israel destroyed the remaining three batteries on Oct. 26. Israel also damaged Iran’s ballistic missile production capabilities and its ability to produce the solid fuel used in long-range ballistic missiles. In addition, according to Axios, Israel’s Oct. 26 strike on Iran, which was a response to an earlier Iranian attack on Israel, also destroyed equipment used to create the explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device, setting back Iran’s efforts in nuclear weapons research.
“A senior Israeli defense official told me that the Oct. 26 attack on Iran ‘was lethal, precise and a surprise.’ And up to now, the Iranians ‘don’t know technologically how we hit them. So they are at the most vulnerable point they have been in this generation: Hamas is not there for them, Hezbollah is not there for them, their air defenses are not there anymore, their ability to retaliate is sharply diminished, and they are worried about Trump.’ “
Friedman’s column goes on to offer advice to President-elect Trump how to deal with other changing realities in the world, including the rapid pace of artificial intelligence development in which, Friedman points out, Israelis are playing a leading role. But one has to wonder whether anyone in Trump’s circle bothers to read anything written by Friedman. After all, he was very close to President Biden – which would certainly put him into Trump’s enemies’ camp, on top of which he writes for that most hated of all media: The New York Times.
Still, if someone who is as critical of Israel’s government as Friedman has been is capable of pointing out the vastly changed dynamic now permeating the entire Middle East as a result of the huge blows Israel has inflicted both on Iran’s number one proxy in the region – Hezbollah, and on Iran itself, once can more readily understand how Israel’s strategy of taking on different enemies all at the same time has paid off.
I, for one, will admit that I was quite surprised to read Friedman’s analysis – and it leads me to question my own thoughts as to what would happen when Israel opened up a new front in Lebanon at the same time as it was still engaged in Gaza. I had thought that it might lead to a repeat of the 2006 debacle, in which a ground invasion by Israel into Lebanon led to heavy Israeli losses and what was, in effect, a victory for Hezbollah – not by being able to defeat Israel, but simply by surviving that invasion.
This time around though – and we’ll have to wait for military analysts to tell us just how effective the heavy Israeli bombardment of Lebanese areas has been in terms of degrading Hezbollah’s military capabilities, Israel has managed to keep its own casualties relatively low by relying upon bombing of Hezbollah infrastructure. As has been the case in Gaza, however, it’s so difficult to tell what those devastating bombings have actually accomplished in specific terms beyond realizing that they have thoroughly degraded both Hamas’s and Hezbollah’s military capacities. It seems though that the aphorism that “the sum is greater than its parts” is particularly apt in describing what the Israel Air Force has been able to achieve.
While we have been witnessing the wholesale destruction of civilian areas – in both Gaza and Lebanon, it now seems evident that Israeli intelligence has been able to locate terrorist locations with tremendous accuracy. The fact that both Hamas and Hezbollah have been so thoroughly embedded within civilian population areas made it inevitable that, once the IAF embarked upon a relentless campaign to destroy terrorist infrastructure and locations where terrorists were embedded within the civilian population, there would be huge civilian casualties – but ultimately Israel would be able to degrade both Hamas and Hezbollah’s fighting abilities to the point where they have both been neutralized in large part.
The question, of course, is what will now happen as a result of Friedman himself describing Israel’s having forced Hezbollah and Iran to “delink” themselves from Hamas. Hamas is, in effect, nothing more than a mafia type organization, now terrorizing the Palestinian population in Gaza, with its own survival now being its purpose. The Israel Defence Forces seem content to let Hamas carry on its campaign of looting aid trucks and terrorizing the population for its own benefit.
But Hamas fighters, however many may remain, don’t have the same option as Hezbollah’s fighters – which is to retreat behind a defined line north of the Litani River in Lebanon. How many are in the tunnels? How many are embedded within the rest of the Gaza population? If the IDF has an idea what the answers to those questions are, I haven’t seen them.
So, the war in Gaza will likely carry on for some time. It appears that the bombing campaign has thoroughly reduced Hamas’s ability to carry on any effective strikes on Israeli targets, but it is not clear at what point the Israeli government might be willing to accept any sort of a ceasefire. The government’s position has been that a ceasefire can only be entered into when at least the majority of the hostages are released, but frankly, Israel is now operating from such a position of strength vis-a-vis Hamas, that the idea of accepting a ceasefire that would allow Hamas fighters to remain in place seems unconscionable to the vast majority of Israelis. It may seem perverse to think that the government has been willing to sacrifice hostages’ lives for the sake of dealing a final, crushing blow to Hamas, but that’s the sad reality.
Still, who would have thought that Israel would be able to wage successful wars on so many fronts? As Thomas Friedman has noted, Israel has upended the situation in the Middle East, albeit at a very heavy price. And even though I’ve been questioning from the outset the Israeli government’s strategy of seeking total victory over Hamas, given how thoroughly Israel has been able to undermine Hezbollah’s and Iran’s positions, perhaps I was wrong to question Netanyahu’s goal of thoroughly crushing Hamas. Credit has to be given though to the IDF and how much they learned from previous wars with Hamas and Hezbollah.
Amidst all this though, one has to feel great sympathy for the people of Gaza. They are being held to ransom by a gang of thugs and there does not appear to be any way out for them. For their sake, let’s hope that Israel can “finish the job” quickly, although how that can be done remains difficult to know. Perhaps Thomas Friedman, who is always so thoughtful and insightful, can shed some answers to that question as well.
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Amsterdam Police Probe New Blast Claimed by Same Group That Claimed Jewish School Explosion
Police officers stand outside a Jewish school following an explosion that caused minor damages, in Amsterdam, Netherlands, March 14, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw
Dutch police are investigating an explosion that damaged an office building in Amsterdam and was claimed by the same extremist organization which also claimed it was behind a recent blast at a Jewish school in the area, a police spokesperson said on Monday.
It was not immediately clear if the building has a link to Amsterdam‘s Jewish community.
Officers were investigating the explosion, which led to a small fire that was quickly extinguished by security guards and caused minor damage, the spokesperson said, adding that police were examining whether the two incidents were indeed linked.
Sienna Investment Managers, which manages the building, did not immediately reply to an emailed request for comment.
Saturday’s explosion, for which the same group claimed responsibility, caused minor damage to a Jewish school. Amsterdam Mayor Femke Halsema and Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten condemned the attack.
The group has also claimed earlier attacks on synagogues in Rotterdam and in neighboring Belgium’s Liege. The attacks had already triggered heightened security at Jewish sites in Amsterdam.
Justice Minister David van Weel said on Saturday that a link between the explosions in Amsterdam and Rotterdam could not be excluded, but did not confirm any claims made on social media by the group.
Concerns about possible attacks against Jewish communities around the world have risen following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and the subsequent response from Tehran.
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Israel Says Lebanese Displaced Won’t Return Until Its Own Citizens Are Safe
Israeli soldiers walk next to military vehicles on the Israeli side of the Israel-Lebanon border, amid escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, and amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in northern Israel, March 16, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Avi Ohayon
Israel on Monday warned that displaced Lebanese driven from their homes by its military campaign against the terrorist group Hezbollah would not be able to return until the safety of Israelis living near the border was ensured, as Israeli troops pushed into new parts of southern Lebanon.
In a briefing, Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters that soldiers were now conducting ground operations in “new locations,” describing the latest offensive as “limited and targeted.”
The extended operation began days after Defense Minister Israel Katz said the military had been ordered to expand its campaign. He later warned that the country could face territorial losses and damage to its infrastructure unless Hezbollah was disarmed.
Israel‘s military, which has occupied five positions in southern Lebanon since a November 2024 ceasefire with Hezbollah, sent additional forces into the country after Hezbollah fired a salvo of rockets on March 2, dragging Lebanon into an expanding regional war.
Hezbollah, a Shi’ite Muslim terrorist group backed by Iran, said its attack was in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader on Feb. 28, the first day of the US-Israeli war with Iran. Israel has responded with an intensive bombing campaign on Lebanon.
COMPARISON WITH GAZA
The military has framed the ground offensive, launched after March 2, as a defensive effort to protect northern Israel from Hezbollah attacks, which it says have averaged at least 100 rockets and drones a day and have reached as far as central Israel.
More than 880 people in Lebanon have been killed, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, and more than 800,000 have been driven from their homes, many from the south as well as from areas near the capital, Beirut.
On Monday, Katz linked the return of displaced Lebanese residents to the safety of Israelis living near the border.
“Hundreds of thousands of Shi’ite residents of southern Lebanon who have evacuated or are evacuating their homes in southern Lebanon and Beirut will not return to areas south of the Litani line until the safety of northern residents is ensured,” he said in a statement.
He said the military had been instructed to destroy “terrorist infrastructure” in villages in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel, drawing a comparison to operations in cities in the Gaza Strip that were largely destroyed by Israeli forces.
Katz also suggested that Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, could face a fate similar to that of his predecessor, and to Iran’s supreme leader, both of whom were killed in Israeli strikes. Qassem said last week threats against his life were “worthless.”
ISRAELI TROOPS ADVANCE WEST
Over the weekend, Israeli troops encircled the key southern Lebanese town of Khiyam and were advancing west toward the Litani River, a move that could leave large swathes of southern Lebanon under Israeli control, Lebanese security sources told Reuters.
Israeli troops battled Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon throughout the day on Monday, and advanced towards Bint Jbeil, a Lebanese village and Hezbollah stronghold located about 4 km from the border with Israel, the sources said.
Two Israeli officials said on Sunday that Israel and Lebanon were expected to hold talks in the coming days aimed at securing a durable ceasefire which would see Hezbollah disarmed.
A Lebanese source familiar with the matter said it didn’t seem talks with Israel would be taking place soon, though they would happen eventually.
Israel‘s Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon told reporters that a “few players were trying to mediate and host talks,” adding: “I believe the next step will be talks but first we have to degrade the capability of Hezbollah.”
Under the November 2024 ceasefire, Hezbollah was to pull back from southern Lebanon as the Lebanese military took over.
Israel said Lebanon never upheld its part of the deal, continuing near-daily air strikes against what it said were Hezbollah positions and weapons.
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Still Too Early To Silence the Lions Roaring Above Iran
The sky is illuminated as an Iranian missile lands in Israel, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, as seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, March 12, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Dylan Martinez
The Iran war is full of surprises. The United Nations Security Council, often a hostile arena for Israel, condemned Tehran — not Washington and Jerusalem — on March 11 for Iran’s war conduct, particularly its strikes on Gulf Arab countries uninvolved in the conflict.
The Gulf strikes are part of the Islamic Republic’s strategy to increase international pressure to force the war’s premature end. This is intended to prevent the United States and Israel from achieving their ideal scenario — the fall of the ayatollahs’ regime — or an acceptable outcome — stopping Iran’s offensive military capabilities.
Terrible as war is, this one should continue until more of its initial goals are achieved.
That’s not to say there haven’t been successes. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander in chief, the minister of defense, the head of the military council, the deputy intelligence minister, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, and other Iranian leaders met at Khamenei’s compound in Tehran on February 28. All of them died there.
In the devastating opening salvo, the Iranian leaders who had long called for Israel’s destruction and chanted “death to America” were instead killed by the countries they wished to harm.
Battle damage assessments can be difficult amid the fog of war, but some things are clear. The United States has struck approximately 6,000 targets, including more than 90 naval ships, and enjoys air superiority over large swaths of Iran. Iran’s drone and missile launches have declined by around 90 percent compared to the first day of the war. Israel assesses that 75 percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, and the United States and its partners have intercepted thousands of Iranian drones.
US and Israeli forces are fighting wingtip-to-wingtip in the skies over Iran, and the Gulf Arab states’ fury at Iran for attacking them may portend favorable developments in the regional defense architecture envisioned in the Abraham Accords.
But there’s more work to be done. The Islamic Republic has struck at least 12 countries in an attempt to create economic pressure for the war to end.
A de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is reducing global shipping and driving up commodity prices, especially oil and gas. And though he hasn’t been seen since being injured early on in the conflict, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has pledged to leverage the Strait’s closure to squeeze the global economy even further to try to get Gulf countries to pressure the United States to halt the operation.
With further damage to the world’s economy looming, the United States and its partners may eventually have to try reopening the Strait. But even without doing so, options exist to reduce the blockade’s impact. The International Energy Agency already released 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, and plans are reportedly being considered for US naval and other escorts through the narrow waterway.
There’s also the regime’s nuclear program to consider. While the damage done to nuclear facilities at Isfahan and Natanz remains largely unclear, satellite imagery indicates that they have been struck during the campaign. Israel did confirm on March 12 that it struck Taleghan 2, a site utilized by the Islamic Republic for explosives testing related to its nuclear program.
But with the regime’s highly enriched uranium supply reportedly buried deep under mountains in fortified Iranian facilities, air power can only do so much damage. It’s unclear if the US or Israel are considering special operations missions to try and make sure that uranium can’t be used in a future nuclear weapon.
Meanwhile, Israel has used its air power to weaken Iran’s tools of repression.
Since the beginning of the war, Iranians have reported that checkpoints run by the regime’s Basij forces have increased in cities around the country. The “religious” militia has also been running more patrols. The Basij seek to prevent a repeat of the massive anti-regime protests in January, in which more than 30,000 innocent Iranians were reportedly slaughtered.
Earlier this month, Iranian state media reported that at least 10 members of the Basij were killed in drone attacks at several checkpoints around the Iranian capital. Later, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed carrying out the precision strikes, pledging to “continue to strike at the mechanisms and operatives of the Iranian terror regime wherever they operate.”
The most optimistic forecast for this conflict is the eradication of the Islamic regime at the hands of historically oppressed Iranian civilians. For now, conditions on the streets are still far too volatile to resume protests.
Israeli eyes in the sky, combined with targeted strikes against Basij forces, can help tilt the odds in favor of the protesters seeking to take their country back from tyrants. A lesser success would be weakening the regime’s nuclear, ballistic, and drone capabilities to dramatically decrease the threat Iran poses to the United States and the world. The United States and Israel have already severely weakened the Islamic Republic, but the mission is far from over.
David May is the research manager and a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow David and Aaron on X @DavidSamuelMay and @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.