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October 7 Was an Intelligence Catastrophe; Humility Will Be Required to Repair It
An Israeli soldier stands guard at moshav Netiv HaAsara which borders the Gaza Strip, in the aftermath of the deadly October 7 attack by terrorists from Palestinian Islamist antisemitic terror group Hamas, in southern Israel, November 19, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israeli intelligence failures — particularly those leading to the failure to warn of a large-scale attack, as suffered by Israel in the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 — are typically followed by the creation of investigative committees that scrutinize intelligence processes, highlight gaps and vulnerabilities, and recommend mechanisms to prevent future failures.
But without a profound cultural shift within the intelligence organization and its personnel — specifically, the integration of humility into the organizational DNA — these mechanisms will not deliver the desired outcome.
Following the end of the current war, and after it receives its historical name (which probably will not be its current name, “Swords of Iron”), a State Commission of Inquiry will likely be established, and be tasked with providing accountability for the events leading up to the Hamas attack on the Jewish state on October 7, 2023.
One of the commission’s main areas of interest will be intelligence, which has been at the center of discussion in the weeks since the barbaric attack by Hamas. The Commission of Inquiry will investigate intelligence collection systems, research and analysis processes, the relationship between agencies in the Israeli intelligence community, the warning process and flow of information, the connection between the intelligence and political echelons, and more.
As always, after the committee examines the sequence of events, it will highlight positive aspects and strengths — but, as is often the more central aspect of such a commission’s work, it will primarily focus on the intelligence lapses that affected operational preparedness and contributed to the Israeli failure to anticipate and prepare for the Hamas attack.
The commission will make recommendations in various areas and address deficiencies in action that need to be overcome, as well as aspects related to responsibility and authority, organizational structure, and work processes among different apparatuses and units in the Israeli intelligence community. Some of the commission’s findings, it can be assumed, will concern the faulty “conception” or consensus within the intelligence community preceding the Hamas attack, similar to that found by its predecessor to have existed prior to the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago.
Within this framework, solutions and mechanisms challenging intelligence discourse will be offered. This occurred in the past with the establishment of the institutionalized “Red Team” (“Ipcha Mistabra“), which was tasked with generating alternative thinking to that of the consensus intelligence assessment; and the “Different Opinion” mechanism, which allowed any intelligence officer to present his or her assessment to the intelligence echelons regardless of rank or command hierarchy. However, none of these measures prevented the massive intelligence failures of October 7.
Research literature in the field of intelligence, both theoretical and empirical, is filled with learned and in-depth analyses of how intelligence agencies fail in their assessments. Sometimes there are gaps in collection and there are almost always gaps in analysis; together they adversely affect operational preparedness. Many have analyzed the cognitive biases leading to assessment failures. Some have focused on developing mechanisms to overcome these biases, such as structured analytical techniques, creating processes with built-in challenges to fundamental assumptions, diversifying those involved in intelligence work to present interpretations from different perspectives, and so on.
These ideas may be good, but none of them will lead to the necessary improvement without incorporating the fundamental component required by intelligence personnel and organizations: humility.
As long as the culture of the intelligence organization and the individuals who comprise it fail to internalize this characteristic into their professional DNA, the technical mechanisms designed to generate discourse challenging fundamental assumptions and prevailing interpretations — visible though they may be on the surface — will be limited in terms of their weight and influence on the final product of the assessment.
What does humility mean in this context? Maimonides defined humility as “the middle road between arrogance and self-abasement.” In other words, it does not require one to be hesitant or evade professional responsibility (self-abasement). For generations, intelligence personnel have been educated to express their opinions, innovate, and think, and rightly so. The role of intelligence is to generate statements that contribute to operational assessment and enable decision makers to prioritize, decide, and navigate at all levels, from the national level to the military tactical field level. Humility in this context does not mean creating an intelligence system that lacks backbone and self-confidence and hides behind convoluted and ambiguous formulations.
The reality is more complex. Humility means refraining from arrogance — that is, it is a constant conscious choice to enter into unsolved or dissonant areas despite the natural instinct to avoid such areas. Faced with the natural tendency of humans (including the author of this article) to gravitate towards harmonious places where one is on solid, familiar ground, intelligence humility requires, as expressed by an educational sage, “to agree to dwell in the realm of questioning.”
Former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke about the concept of the “unknown unknown.” In the realm of things that humans do not know, the simpler area is things we know we don’t know (the “known unknown”). In other words, we know there is a gap in information, so we understand that attention should be given to either fill the gap or at least be cautious in our decision-making due to incomplete information. These are areas where, from an intelligence perspective, there is often a high awareness, such as coverage gaps or accessibility gaps, and they are mostly an integral part of the intelligence assessment processes.
The more challenging problem is in areas where we don’t know what we don’t know (the “unknown unknown”). These are interpretations of existing pieces of information that might be considered peculiar or unusual. This also involves the consideration of scenarios that not only would not be defined as a possibly dangerous course of action in military assessment but would not even be considered scenarios to be evaluated. These are the “unknown unknowns” from which intelligence surprises often come.
In many cases throughout history, and apparently also with the recent Hamas attack, information was available, and there were even some who were willing to think in a dissonant way about it that contradicted the more comfortable interpretation. But in retrospect, the entire security sector and intelligence community failed to create a situation where the information received the correct interpretation and/or was translated into operational readiness in accordance with that interpretation.
As described above, in the Israeli intelligence community there are many mechanisms ostensibly designed to allow a variety of interpretations, and it is reasonable to assume that interpretations willing to accept existing information did arise. However, the results teach us that humility, the basic component that can provide the proper attention to conflicting interpretations, was lacking in the system. Humility is a fundamental characteristic that affords the willingness to break systemic thought patterns and be open to interpretations that are not the consensus and likely will require a profound change in perceptions and actions.
It should be emphasized that there is no intention of letting any hypothetical scenario divert military force employment and deployment from end to end. It is self-evident that these processes should be built and prioritized in the face of an assumed scenario, based to a large extent on intelligence and geo-strategic analysis. However, an organizational and personal spirit of humility will lead to a significant tuning of the development of these scenarios, their diversification, and the addition of shadings that the absence of humility prevents from appearing. Finally, it should always be remembered that intelligence cannot be a condition for operational preparedness but should support and assist it.
An examination of the lessons learned from the intelligence failures discussed by the Agranat Commission, which investigated the Yom Kippur War, reveals that two of the main factors that contributed to the failure in assessment were a lack of humility, as defined in this article, and an overinflated confidence in the assessment of our forces’ capability to stop the threat. There was also found to be conformism in intelligence assessment. Even though there was, on the surface, room for different opinions, they didn’t influence the final and official “Israeli Military Intelligence Corps position.” For all the mechanisms intended to “save” the organization from being captive to a conception, both existing and those to be established in the wake of the current war, the intelligence community needs to be trained and educated to approach intelligence assessments through a lens of humility.
Dr. Natanel Flamer is a senior lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern Studies at Bar-Ilan University and senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA Center). He is the author of “Hamas Intelligence Warfare Against Israel”, forthcoming from Cambridge University Press. Dr. Flamer specializes in intelligence, terrorism, and asymmetrical warfare in the Middle East. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Columbia University Newspaper Endorses Mamdani for New York City Mayor
Candidate Zohran Mamdani speaks during a Democratic New York City mayoral primary debate, June 4, 2025, in New York, US. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/Pool via REUTERS
Columbia University’s flagship newspaper, The Columbia Daily Spectator, has endorsed a far-left New York City mayoral candidate who has been accused of antisemitism and made anti-Israel activism a cornerstone of his political career.
The Spectator’s editorial board issued the endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, a representative in the New York State Assembly, in a rare moment of summer activity, as most of the university’s student body is on holiday. It comes as the university’s leadership is reportedly taking steps to deal with a surge of campus antisemitism that captured national attention and led the Trump administration to pull federal funding over the school’s alleged failure to combat the crisis.
“Our endorsements reflect the consensus opinion of the editorial board, but we recognize that voters may weigh these issues differently,” the paper said on Tuesday. “As Spectator‘s editorial board, we endorse Zohran Mamdani as our top choice for New York City Mayor. Currently ranked second in most polls, the New York State Assembly member and his campaign have resonated with New Yorkers who have been repeatedly disappointed by the current administration.”
It added, “The Democratic Socialist has grounded his campaign in bread-and-butter issues such as universal child care, free public transportation, and affordable housing, echoing Sen. Bernie Sanders’ brand of economic populism.”
The paper’s choice of Mamdani prompted a slew of responses on social media. A native of Uganda born to parents from India, one of whom is an Oscar nominated filmmaker, Mamdani has refused to recognize the Jewish state of Israel, advocated adoption of the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel, and suggested that New York City — home to the world’s largest Jewish community outside of Israel — will divest from the country if he is elected.
Earlier this month, he refused to distance himself from the phrase “globalize the intifada,” a slogan that is believed to have inspired a wave of anti-Jewish violence which culminated in the murder of two young Israeli diplomats outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, DC in May. The Democratic mayoral candidate went as far as comparing the phrase to the motivations behind the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, prompting a rebuke from the US Holocaust Memorial Museum.
“I think what’s difficult is that the very word has been used by the Holocaust Museum when translating the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising into Arabic, because it’s a word that means struggle,” Mamdani said on the Bulwark podcast. “And as a Muslim man who grew up post-9/11, I’m too familiar in the way in which Arabic words can be twisted, can be distorted, can be used to justify any kind of meaning.”
The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising was an effort by Jews in Nazi-occupied Poland to fight back as they were set to be deported to concentration camps and killed during the Holocaust. In contrast, the slogan “globalize the intifada” references previous periods of sustained Palestinian terrorism against Jews and Israels known as intifadas, or uprisings.
On another occasion, years before he emerged as a candidate for mayor, Mamdani appeared to threaten that a “third intifada” was forthcoming.
Following the Spectator’s declaration of support for his campaign, Columbia University professor Shai Davidai charged that the paper had violated laws which prevent nonprofit entities, such as the Spectator, from entering the fray of electoral politics.
“The Columbia Spectator has just breached its non-profit status by endorsing a political candidate,” Davidai said. “Please join me in filing a formal complaint with the IRS against the Spectator Publishing Company. It’s time to make our colleges a partisan-free space for education.”
Elisha Baker, who studies Middle East History at Columbia University, said in a statement shared with The Algemeiner and other outlets that the Spectator is essentially throwing its support behind a surge of antisemitic violence called for by anti-Zionists of Mamdani’s mold.
“Zohran Mamdani is a threat to Jews in NYC and Americans everywhere. He marches with the antisemitic and anti-American mob,” Baker said. “A vote for Mamdani is a vote for antisemitism and continued pro-terror chaos on our streets. Especially since the tragic attacks in DC and Boulder, a vote for Mamdani is nothing short of a vote for Jews to stay inside.”
New York City will ultimately determine the merit of the case against the mayoral candidate, who would be the favorite to win the November general election if he prevails over his Democratic opponents, including former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, during Tuesday’s primary.
During the campaign, Cuomo criticized Mamdani’s links to the anti-Zionist movement.
“Yesterday when Zohran Mamdani was asked a direct question about what he thought of the phrase ‘globalize the intifada,’ he dismissed it as ‘language’ ‘that is subject to interpretation,’ Cuomo said in a statement earlier this month. “That is not only wrong – it is dangerous. At a time when we are seeing antisemitism on the rise and in fact witnessing once again violence against Jews resulting in their deaths in Washington DC or their burning in Denver – we know all too well that words matter. They fuel hate. They fuel murder. As the US Holocaust Museum so aptly said, all leaders or those running for office must condemn the use of this battle cry. There are no two sides here.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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Gaza Humanitarian Foundation Calls for UN to Condemn Attacks on Aid Workers, Collaborate Amid Mass ‘Disinformation’
Palestinians collect aid supplies from the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, June 9, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has called on the United Nations to publicly condemn the killing of aid workers in Gaza and to collaborate in order to provide relief to the enclave’s population, accusing the UN of perpetuating a “vast disinformation campaign” aimed at tarnishing the US- and Israel-backed foundation’s image.
In a letter sent to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday, GHF executive chairman Rev. Johnnie Moore defended the foundation’s efforts to distribute aid to the civilians of Gaza, the Palestinian enclave that has been ruled by the Hamas terrorist group for nearly two decades.
“Nearly 40 million meals have been distributed in our first month of operations from our Secure Distribution Sites,” Moore wrote, adding that the program has successfully distributed emergency aid to Palestinians in “desperate need” despite constantly operating “under grave threat.”
Moore also criticized the UN, saying that the GHF has “shared our data and our logistical approach” with the global body in hopes of forging a collaboration effort between the two entities. He lamented that the UN has “neither partnered with GHF nor even acknowledged our operational successes.”
“Our work has continued with normal operations amidst an expanding regional conflict, and also a vast disinformation campaign which has sought to stop us from feeding people from the moment we started,” Moore continued. “We regret that your own office has been a victim of this disinformation campaign which has only threatened to further harm the Gazan people.”
The GHF was created because Hamas routinely steals humanitarian aid, leaving civilians facing severe shortages. Documents released by the Israeli military earlier this month showed that Hamas operatives violently took control of approximately 25 percent of incoming aid shipments, which they then resold to civilians at inflated prices.
The GHF operates independently from UN-backed mechanisms, which Hamas has sought to reinstate, arguing that these frameworks are more neutral. Israeli and American officials have rejected those calls, saying Hamas previously exploited UN-run systems to siphon aid for its war effort. The UN has denied those allegations while expressing concerns that the GHF’s approach forces civilians to risk their safety by traveling long distances across active conflict zones to reach food distribution points.
Since the GHF launched operations in late May, there have been reports of Palestinians being shot near distribution sites. In specific cases, Israel has acknowledged targeting what it believed to be armed Hamas operatives using civilians as cover.
In his letter, Moore also criticized the UN for staying “absolutely silent in the wake of a targeted killing of GHF personnel nearly two weeks ago.”
“Their murder was not only a violation of international law, it was an affront to the very principles the UN purports to defend,” the GHF chairman added. He called on the UN to “publicly condemn the targeting of humanitarian workers in Gaza, and to denounce the obstruction of aid by Hamas and other armed factions.”
Moore’s letter came about two weeks after the GHF said that, on the night of June 11, several of its aid workers were killed when Hamas gunmen attacked a bus transporting local staffers.
The group said the vehicle was targeted as it carried more than 20 workers to a distribution site near the city of Khan Younis. In a statement Thursday, GHF said that at least people people were killed and several more were injured.
The bus attack followed days of threats from Hamas directed at the foundation and its workers.
According to Moore, the UN can help the humanitarian crisis in Gaza by working directly with GHD to help distribute aid “at scale” to needy civilians while bypassing “intermediaries.”
“The only credible response to food insecurity is food delivery. Anything less is a deferral of responsibility. We are ready to work with other humanitarian providers to deliver food straight to the Palestinian people and restore order to a system plagued by desperation and disorder,” Moore wrote.
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Netanyahu Declares Historic Win, Says Israel Removed Iran’s Nuclear Threat in 12-Day War
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference, in Jerusalem, May 21, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/Pool
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel in its 12 days of war with Iran had removed the threat of nuclear annihilation and was determined to thwart any attempt by Tehran to revive its program.
“We have removed two immediate existential threats to us – the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles,” he said in video remarks issued by his office.
“If anyone in Iran tries to revive this project, we will work with the same determination and strength to thwart any such attempt. I repeat, Iran will not have nuclear weapons.”
Netanyahu called it a historic victory that would stand for generations.
He said Israel never had a better friend in the White House than President Donald Trump, whose US military had dropped massive bunker-buster bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear sites in an attack over the weekend.
“Our friend President Trump has rallied to our side in an unprecedented way. Under his direction, the United States military destroyed the underground enrichment site at Fordow,” Netanyahu said.
He spoke hours after Trump directed stinging criticism at Israel over the scale of strikes Trump said had violated a truce with Iran negotiated by Washington, Israel‘s closest ally.
Netanyahu said Israel‘s work was unfinished. He cited the war against Iran’s ally Hamas in Gaza, where 50 hostages remain in captivity since the Palestinian terrorist group carried out a surprise attack on October 7, 2023.
About 20 are believed to be alive.
“We must complete the campaign against the Iranian axis, defeat Hamas, and bring about the release of all the hostages, both living and dead,” he said.
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