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If Israel Is Forced to Continue War Alone, America Will Be the Loser
Superpowers like the United States often have difficulty comprehending the concept of “existential threat” — the reality that a country could actually be destroyed.
This danger, and the determination it produces, was eloquently expressed in Prime Minister Golda Meier’s famous quote during the Yom Kippur War, “We have a secret weapon here in Israel… we have nowhere else to go.”
Less well remembered is that at the time, she was speaking to a young Senator Joe Biden.
On Monday, the United States permitted the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to pass Resolution 2728, demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and return of all hostages. Yet international law and bodies have no impact on Hamas, so the demand to return the hostages has no real-world impact.
For Israel, the war in Gaza has two objectives: the rescue of 134 Israeli hostages and destruction of the Hamas terror organization, by far the most important goal.
Therefore, the demand for a ceasefire presents a powerful danger.
Monday’s resolution was passed under Chapter 6 of the UN Charter: a demand without an immediate enforcement mechanism. However, if Israel does not comply, the UNSC has the option to follow up with a Chapter 7 resolution, which would have the force of international law and may include crippling sanctions and even direct military action against Israel. (For example, a Chapter 7 resolution triggered the Gulf War against Iraq in 1991.)
If it does not exercise its veto, the United States would become the first nation in history to permit a Chapter 7 resolution against a close ally, which would produce untold consequences for America’s future.
Israel must enter Rafah, the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza, and the location of most of the remaining hostages, because the Jewish State believes it is the only way to ensure Israel’s safety.
The White House claims that “there are other ways,” to defeat Hamas, though the administration has not explained how.
If America reduces its military support at a critical time, or allows a Chapter 7 enforcement action at the UNSC, then Israel will face existential danger, both from its enemies and from international sanctions. Whether Israel then succeeds in spite of being abandoned — or fails because of it — American credibility will be demolished.
American allies, out of their own self interest, will likely seek alliances with other major powers, such as China and Russia. Meanwhile, America has no shortage of enemies, such as the Houthis in the Red Sea, Russia in Ukraine, Iran with its nuclear program, and the myriad of terror groups looking to attack the US at home. All such enemies will be emboldened, just at a time when America’s alliances are weakened.
Ironically, this UN action has already brought the Middle East farther away from peace rather than closer — because Hamas sees international pressure on Israel as a viable path to potential victory.
Case in point: on Sunday, Israel agreed to an international proposal for the release of some 800 Palestinian prisoners, including violent offenders, in exchange for 40 Israeli hostages, a six week truce, and steps toward a permanent ceasefire. Hamas, which has rejected dozens of ceasefire offers, appeared to be seriously considering the new proposal. Yet just hours after the UNSC resolution, Hamas rejected the proposal outright, dashing international hopes.
There are two possible explanations for this state of affairs between Israel and the US.
President Biden is facing a tough election fight, including a tidal wave of public pressure over civilian casualties in Gaza. This is a highly calculated component of Hamas’ strategy to defeat Israel through international pressure. While civilian casualties are disturbing, much of the accepted narrative is simply untrue.
Even at a risk to Israeli troops, the Jewish State has taken unprecedented measures to protect civilians, and the results speak for themselves: the civilian to combatant casualty ratio, at close to 1:1, is the lowest in history for a conflict of this type.
Furthermore, the total casualty count is orders of magnitude lower than other conflicts in the region, such as Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.
Numerous other conspiracy theories including that Israel shelled hospitals, have proven to be outright false. Nonetheless, Hamas’ war of propaganda has been effective, not just against Israel directly, but also as a factor in the US elections.
Another possibility is that the tension is personal: Prime Minister Netanyahu and Presidents Obama and Biden have long disagreed. Indeed, Monday’s resolution does seem reminiscent of the 2016 UNSC resolution 2334, widely seen in Israel as a “parting shot” by President Obama against Prime Minister Netanyahu. Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer also called for Israel to hold early elections and thereby oust its prime minister (a rare statement when speaking to a close and democratic ally), which further supports the idea that tensions may be personal.
Hamas’ continued existence is an existential threat to Israel — and its leaders have promised to carry out October 7 style massacres “again and again.” Yet the White House has underestimated just how powerful an existential threat can be. No amount of pressure or leverage, even from a powerful ally, can compete with the possibility of utter destruction.
Israel may be forced to go it alone, and America will lose either way.
Daniel Pomerantz is an expert in international law, an adjunct professor at Reichman and Bar Ilan Universities in Israel, and the CEO of RealityCheck, an nonprofit NGO dedicated to clarifying global conversations with verifiable data. Daniel lives in Tel Aviv, Israel and can be found on Instagram at @realitycheckresearch or at www.RealityCheckResearch.org.
The post If Israel Is Forced to Continue War Alone, America Will Be the Loser first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Germany: 5 Killed, Scores Wounded after Saudi Man Plows Car Into Christmas crowd
i24 News – A suspected terrorist plowed a vehicle into a crowd at a Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg, west of the capital Berlin, killing at least five and injuring dozens more.
Local police confirmed that the suspect was a Saudi national born in 1974 and acting alone.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed his concern about the incident, saying that “reports from Magdeburg suggest something bad. My thoughts are with the victims and their families.”
Police declined to give casualty numbers, confirming only a large-scale operation at the market, where people had gathered to celebrate in the days leading up to the Christmas holidays.
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Syria’s New Rulers Name HTS Commander as Defense Minister
Syria’s new rulers have appointed Murhaf Abu Qasra, a leading figure in the insurgency which toppled Bashar al-Assad, as defense minister in the interim government, an official source said on Saturday.
Abu Qasra, who is also known by the nom de guerre Abu Hassan 600, is a senior figure in the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group which led the campaign that ousted Assad this month. He led numerous military operations during Syria’s revolution, the source said.
Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa discussed “the form of the military institution in the new Syria” during a meeting with armed factions on Saturday, state news agency SANA reported.
Abu Qasra during the meeting sat next to Sharaa, also known by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani, photos published by SANA showed.
Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir said this week that the defense ministry would be restructured using former rebel factions and officers who defected from Assad’s army.
Bashir, who formerly led an HTS-affiliated administration in the northwestern province of Idlib, has said he will lead a three-month transitional government. The new administration has not declared plans for what will happen after that.
Earlier on Saturday, the ruling General Command named Asaad Hassan al-Shibani as foreign minister, SANA said. A source in the new administration told Reuters that this step “comes in response to the aspirations of the Syrian people to establish international relations that bring peace and stability.”
Shibani, a 37-year-old graduate of Damascus University, previously led the political department of the rebels’ Idlib government, the General Command said.
Sharaa’s group was part of al Qaeda until he broke ties in 2016. It had been confined to Idlib for years until going on the offensive in late November, sweeping through the cities of western Syria and into Damascus as the army melted away.
Sharaa has met with a number of international envoys this week. He has said his primary focus is on reconstruction and achieving economic development and that he is not interested in engaging in any new conflicts.
Syrian rebels seized control of Damascus on Dec. 8, forcing Assad to flee after more than 13 years of civil war and ending his family’s decades-long rule.
Washington designated Sharaa a terrorist in 2013, saying al Qaeda in Iraq had tasked him with overthrowing Assad’s rule and establishing Islamic sharia law in Syria. US officials said on Friday that Washington would remove a $10 million bounty on his head.
The war has killed hundreds of thousands of people, caused one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times and left cities bombed to rubble and the economy hollowed out by global sanctions.
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Sweden Ends Funding for UNRWA, Pledges to Seek Other Aid Channels
i24 News – Sweden will no longer fund the U.N. refugee agency for Palestinians (UNRWA) and will instead provide humanitarian assistance to Gaza via other channels, the Scandinavian country said on Friday.
The decision comes on the heels of multiple revelations regarding the agency’s employees’ involvement in the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led massacre in southern Israel that triggered the war in Gaza.
Sweden’s decision was in response to the Israeli ban, as it will make channeling aid via the agency more difficult, the country’s aid minister, Benjamin Dousa, said.
“Large parts of UNRWA’s operations in Gaza are either going to be severely weakened or completely impossible,” Dousa said. “For the government, the most important thing is that support gets through.”
The Palestinian embassy in Stockholm said in a statement: “We reject the idea of finding alternatives to UNRWA, which has a special mandate to provide services to Palestinian refugees.”
Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel thanked Dousa for a meeting they had this week and for Sweden’s decision to drop its support for UNRWA.
“There are worthy and viable alternatives for humanitarian aid, and I appreciate the willingness to listen and adopt a different approach,” she said.
The post Sweden Ends Funding for UNRWA, Pledges to Seek Other Aid Channels first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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