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Hezbollah Unlikely to Attack Cyprus and East Med
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is seen addressing supporters, in Beirut, Lebanon. Photo: Reuters.
JNS.org – Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech in June with threats aimed at the East Mediterranean, causing concern in Israel that the Iran-backed terror group based in Lebanon could try and copy Houthi tactics in the Red Sea.
Nasrallah emphasized potential attacks on Israeli assets in the Mediterranean, highlighting the vulnerability of military and commercial shipping, as well as offshore gas facilities.
Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), told JNS that if Hezbollah shuts down the Eastern Mediterranean to ship traffic, it could impact Israel’s trade and the economy “almost as negatively as attacks on Haifa itself, since this port is a major Israeli lifeline and hub.”
Ruhe said it would “impose yet more strains on the U.S. Navy, which is already extending its deployments and burning through costly, precious munitions as it tries to maintain freedom of navigation across the region.”
“More broadly,” he added, “it could scare off much-needed energy production and exploration in the East Med that benefits the U.S., Israel and their European partners.”
In his speech, Nasrallah referenced past conflicts where Hezbollah surprised Israel with naval strikes, suggesting similar tactics could be employed again.
During the 2006 Second War in Lebanon, Hezbollah damaged the INS Hanit, a Sa’ar 5-class corvette of the Israeli Navy’s 3rd Flotilla, after attacking it with a C-701 anti-ship missile.
Israel apparently did not have the appropriate defensive systems activated at the time.
Hezbollah is believed to have an arsenal of more than 150,000 missiles, including long-range and precision-guided ones that could reach anywhere in Israel and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, dismissed the idea that Hezbollah could block naval traffic in the Eastern Mediterranean.
“I’m not sure Hezbollah has the capability,” he said, unless it coordinates with the Turks.
He suggested that Hezbollah could try to use precision-guided munitions against ships, but pointed out that Israel has defensive capabilities against such threats.
At the end of the day, according to Inbar, Israel isn’t worried that Hezbollah can achieve this.
Nasrallah also warned that Hezbollah would target Cyprus if it allows Israel to utilize its military facilities in any future conflict with Lebanon.
Hanin Ghaddar, Farzin Nadimi and David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote in June that Nasrallah’s threat toward Cyprus was not arbitrary, but rooted in longstanding ties between Nicosia and Jerusalem, which have included joint military exercises focused on countering threats from Hezbollah and Iran.
Cyprus has affirmed its neutrality despite hosting British military bases, including RAF Akrotiri, which contribute to regional security. The 1960 Treaty of Establishment grants Britain sovereignty over these bases, with obligations for Cyprus and cooperation mandates for Greece and Turkey in its defense. Cyprus’s E.U. membership could potentially trigger collective defense measures if Hezbollah attacks the island.
Currently, Cyprus lacks a robust air and missile defense network, although plans to acquire Israeli Iron Dome systems have been discussed.
The vulnerability of the island to Hezbollah missile attacks underscores concerns, particularly given its significant allied military presence, including British and U.S. forces and logistical support during regional conflicts.
If Israel lost access to its runways due to Hezbollah bombing and were to launch attacks out of RAF Akrotiri, for example, then it would essentially be launching from British soil, and this would apply if Hezbollah attacked that base, as well.
But according to Inbar, the U.K.—certainly under the current government led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer—would not allow Israel to use its bases in Cyprus, and Hezbollah would not target its bases.
Ruhe agreed, though he cautioned “Never say never about anything after October 7, but likely never.”
Ruhe said the British “have been admirably ready to use their Cyprus bases to help defend the region against missiles and drones, and to resupply Israel.”
But, he noted, these are “indirect moves” and “can be framed as defensive, unlike letting Israel use those same bases for offensive operations against Hezbollah, even if Hezbollah fires the first shots in that larger war.”
Israel has no real alternative options if its airfields are neutralized in a Hezbollah strike, and for this reason, according to Ruhe, “the IDF is expected to prioritize its air defenses to protect its airbases in a major war with Hezbollah, even at the cost of leaving much of the rest of country exposed.”
Even if Israel wanted to use Cyprus to attack Hezbollah, Ruhe said, there are complications involved.
“There’s the potential diplomatic blowback of risking a conflict that the E.U., and even NATO via the British bases, want no part of,” he said. “This would be especially true if it looks like Israel launches ‘unprovoked’ attacks from the island, given the world’s eagerness to unfairly and prematurely condemn anything Israel does at this point.”
Ruhe also said that using Cyprus “complicates the Israeli Air Force’s ability to generate the massive number of sorties it’d have to conduct in a big war with Hezbollah, given that the island is farther from Lebanon and wouldn’t have the logistical setup, amenities, etc., of IAF bases at home.”
Ruhe said that if Hezbollah did attack Royal Air Force bases in Cyprus, “it would mean bringing a NATO member into the mix, and threatening an E.U. member, as well.”
He noted that it could “quickly widen a conflict that Hezbollah (and Iran) would rather wage against an Israel that is isolated diplomatically and encircled militarily.”
In addition, Ruhe said, attacking Cyprus “would pose a tradeoff for Hezbollah.”
“Every long-range missile and drone they send toward Cyprus is one less they can use to threaten catastrophic damage on Israel, which is the force-planning construct around which Iran assiduously built Hezbollah into the world’s best-armed non-state actor,” he said.
Ruhe stated that Nasrallah’s threat against Cyprus “underscores two big priorities.”
The first, he said, is that the U.S. “needs to be urgent and serious when it comes to ensuring Israel can wage a major conflict as decisively and swiftly as possible.”
The second, and in tandem, is that “the U.S. needs to clearly warn Tehran and its proxies against trying to broaden any conflict with Israel.”
There are reports that U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein is close to brokering a deal between Israel and Lebanon.
According to Ruhe, the British, like the Americans, “don’t want to assume any more risk in the Middle East, and currently their thinking appears to be that they could still avert, or at least avoid, a major Israel-Hezbollah war.”
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Canadian Attempts Knife Attack on Israel Security Unit, Is Shot Dead, Authorities Say
Israeli officials work at the scene of an attempted stabbing attack that Israeli police say was carried out by a Canadian citizen, at Netiv Haasara, Israel, July 22, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
A Canadian citizen attempted to attack an armed civilian security unit with a knife in southern Israel near the Gaza border and was shot dead, Israeli authorities said on Monday.
The incident took place at the entrance of Netiv HaAsara, a town where security has been intensified since Hamas-led terrorists killed around 20 people there during the Oct. 7 rampage in southern Israel that triggered the Gaza war.
The Israeli military said the suspect “exited his vehicle and threatened with a knife members of the community’s rapid response team operating in the area.”
“The rapid response team responded with fire and neutralized the suspect. No injuries to the security forces were reported,” the military said.
A police spokesperson said the attacker was a Canadian citizen.
Reuters television footage showed a dead body, apparently of the suspected attacker, being taken to an ambulance.
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IDF Confirms Deaths of Two More Israeli Hostages in Hamas Captivity in Gaza
A woman holds a photo of Israeli hostage Yagev Buchshtab as people hold up pictures of other hostages while attending a protest calling for a ceasefire and hostage deal to halt the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, outside the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem, April 9, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Monday that it confirmed the deaths of two more Israeli hostages being held in captivity by the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.
Alex Dancyg, 75, and Yagev Buchshtav, 35, were abducted from their homes in kibbutzim near the border with Gaza during Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre across southern Israel. According to the Israeli military, the two were believed to have been held together by Hamas in Khan Younis, where they died some months ago while the IDF was operating there.
The military is still investigating their deaths and did not release further details on the exact circumstances surrounding them. According to Israeli media reports, the investigation is looking into the possibility that they were killed accidentally by Israeli fire.
“Yagev and Alex were taken alive and should have returned alive to their families and to their country,” the Hostage Families Forum said in a statement. “Their death in captivity is a tragic reflection of the consequences of foot-dragging in negotiations.”
The IDF’s announcement came as Egypt, Qatar, and the US continued to broker ongoing talks between Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire to halt fighting in Gaza, the Palestinian enclave ruled by Hamas, and release at least some of the hostages.
Dancyg, a historian, and Buchshtav, a sound technician, were among the approximately 250 people kidnapped as hostages and brought back to Gaza by Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists during their Oct. 7 invasion of the Jewish state. About 1,200 people were murdered during the onslaught.
Mounting evidence has revealed that the terrorists perpetrated systematic sexual violence, including torture and gang-rape, during their rampage across southern Israel. Meanwhile, released hostages have recounted suffering sexual assault and abuse during their time in captivity.
The International March of the Living, an annual Holocaust education program founded in 1988, released a statement mourning the death of Dancyg, who was one of the founders of youth trips to Poland and a person “who promoted Israeli-Polish dialogue and educated generations of teachers and students about Holocaust remembrance.”
The March of the Living brings people from around the world to Poland each year for Israel’s Holocaust Remembrance Day — known as Yom HaShoah — to march on the path leading from Auschwitz I to Auschwitz II-Birkenau, visiting the site of the infamous Nazi concentration camp to commemorate the six million Jews killed in the Holocaust by the Nazis.
“In the 2024 March of the Living, his [Dancyg’s] son Yuval participated in the delegation of victims of Oct. 7, alongside Holocaust survivors, released hostages, and family members of hostages still in captivity,” the organization said in a statement. “During the march, we prayed for his return and the return of all the hostages. On this difficult day, we wish to share in the deep sorrow of the family, who moved mountains to bring Alex home alive. May his memory be blessed.”
Dancyg also had Polish citizenship, and Poland’s foreign ministry commented on his death.
“Poland will continue to demand the unconditional release of all the abductees from Gaza,” the ministry said.
The IDF has now confirmed the deaths of 44 of the roughly 120 remaining hostages in Gaza. Over 100 of the hostages were released as part of a temporary truce in November. Others have been freed during Israeli rescue operations, some dead and others alive.
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Biden Ends Faltering Reelection Campaign, Backs Harris as Nominee
Former Vice President Joe Biden talks with Senator Kamala Harris after the conclusion of the 2020 Democratic US presidential debate in Houston, Texas, Sept. 12, 2019. Photo: Reuters / Mike Blake.
U.S. President Joe Biden dropped his faltering reelection bid on Sunday, amid intensifying opposition within his own Democratic Party, and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him as the party’s candidate against Republican Donald Trump.
Biden, 81, in a post on X, said he will remain in his role as president and commander-in-chief until his term ends in January 2025 and will address the nation this week. He has not been seen in public since testing positive for COVID-19 last week and isolating at his home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.
“While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote.
Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison said the American people will hear from the party on next steps and the path forward for the nomination process soon. It was the first time in more than a half-century that an incumbent U.S. president gave up his party’s nomination.
Biden‘s campaign had been on the ropes since a halting June 27 debate against former President Trump, 78, in which the incumbent at times struggled to finish his thoughts.
Opposition from within his party gained steam over the past week with 36 congressional Democrats – more than one in eight – publicly calling on him to end his campaign.
Lawmakers said they feared he could cost them not only the White House but also the chance to control either chamber of Congress next year, which would leave Democrats with no meaningful grasp on power in Washington.
That stood in sharp contrast to what played out in the Republican Party last week, when members united around Trump and his running mate U.S. Senator J.D. Vance, 39.
Harris, 59, would become the first Black woman to run at the top of a major-party ticket in the country’s history.
Trump told CNN on Sunday that he believed Harris would be easier to defeat.
Biden had a last-minute change of heart, said a source familiar with the matter. The president told allies that as of Saturday night he planned to stay in the race before changing his mind on Sunday afternoon.
“Last night the message was proceed with everything, full speed ahead,” the source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. “At around 1:45 p.m. today: the president told his senior team that he had changed his mind.”
Biden announced his decision on social media within minutes.
It was unclear whether other senior Democrats would challenge Harris for the party’s nomination – she was widely seen as the pick for many party officials – or whether the party itself would choose to open the field for nominations.
Public opinion polling shows that Harris performs no worse than Biden against Trump.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Harris and Trump were tied with 44% support each in a July 15-16 Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted immediately after the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump. Trump led Biden 43% to 41% in that same poll, though the 2 percentage point difference was not meaningful considering the poll’s 3-point margin of error.
REPUBLICANS QUESTION BIDEN CAPACITY TO STAY IN POWER
Congressional Republicans argued that Biden should resign the office immediately, which would turn the White House over to Harris and put House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, next in line in succession.
“If he’s incapable of running for president, how is he capable of governing right now? I mean, there is five months left in this administration. It’s a real concern, and it’s a danger to the country,” Johnson told CNN on Sunday before Biden‘s announcement.
Johnson in a separate interview on ABC signaled that Republicans would likely try to mount legal challenges to Democrats’ move to replace Biden on the ballot.
Biden‘s announcement follows a wave of public and private pressure from Democratic lawmakers and party officials to quit the race after his shockingly poor debate.
His troubles took the public spotlight away from Trump’s performance, in which he made a string of false statements, and trained it instead on questions surrounding Biden‘s fitness for another four-year term.
His gaffes at a NATO summit – invoking Russian President Vladimir Putin’s name when he meant Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and calling Harris “Vice President Trump” -further stoked anxieties.
FIRST SINCE LBJ
Biden‘s historic move – the first sitting president to give up his party’s nomination for reelection since President Lyndon B. Johnson during the Vietnam War in March 1968 – leaves his replacement with less than four months to wage a campaign.
If Harris emerges as the nominee, the move would represent an unprecedented gamble by the Democratic Party: its first Black and Asian American woman to run for the White House in a country that has elected one Black president and never a woman president in more than two centuries.
Biden was the oldest U.S. president ever elected when he beat Trump in 2020. During that campaign, Biden described himself as a bridge to the next generation of Democratic leaders. Some interpreted that to mean he would serve one term, a transitional figure who beat Trump and brought his party back to power.
But he set his sights on a second term in the belief that he was the only Democrat who could beat Trump again amid questions about Harris’s experience and popularity. In recent times, though, his advanced age began to show through more. His gait became stilted and his childhood stutter occasionally returned.
His team had hoped a strong performance at the June 27 debate would ease concerns over his age. It did the opposite: a Reuters/Ipsos poll after the debate showed that about 40% of Democrats thought he should quit the race.
Donors began to revolt and supporters of Harris began to coalesce around her. Top Democrats, including former House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a longtime ally, told Biden he cannot win the election.
Biden‘s departure sets up a stark new contrast, between the Democrats’ presumptive new nominee, Harris, a former prosecutor, and Trump who is two decades her senior and faces two outstanding criminal prosecutions related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election result. He is due to be sentenced in New York in September on a conviction for trying to cover up a hush-money payment to a porn star.
BIDEN STRUGGLED BEFORE DEBATE
Earlier this year, facing little opposition, Biden easily won the Democratic primary race to pick its presidential candidate, despite voter concerns about his age and health.
His staunch support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza eroded support among some in his own party, particularly young, progressive Democrats and voters of color, who make up an essential part of the Democratic base.
Many Black voters say Biden has not done enough for them, and enthusiasm among Democrats overall for a second Biden term had been low. Even before the debate with Trump, Biden was trailing the Republican in some national polls and in the battleground states he would have needed to win to prevail on Nov. 5.
Harris was tasked with reaching out to those voters in recent months.
During the primary race, Biden accumulated more than 3,600 delegates to the Democratic National Convention to be held in Chicago in August. That was almost double the 1,976 needed to win the party’s nomination.
Unless the Democratic Party changes the rules, delegates pledged to Biden would enter the convention “uncommitted,” leaving them to vote on his successor.
Democrats also have a system of “superdelegates,” unpledged senior party officials and elected leaders whose support is limited on the first ballot but who could play a decisive role in subsequent rounds.
Biden beat Trump in 2020 by winning in the key battleground states, including tight races in Pennsylvania and Georgia. At a national level, he bested Trump by more than 7 million votes, capturing 51.3% of the popular vote to Trump’s 46.8%.
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