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A Ceasefire in Gaza Could Lead to an Even Greater Threat From Hezbollah
People rush to a soccer field hit by a Hezbollah rocket in the majority-Druze northern Israeli town Majdal Shams Photo: Via 924, from social media used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement on Friday, July 19, that Gaza ceasefire talks are “inside the 10-yard line” raised hope (again) for an end to the 9-month Israel-Hamas conflict.
Overlooked in the excitement about a possible ceasefire, however, is the impact that it will have on Israel’s other nine-month conflict. The achievement of a ceasefire in Gaza places Israel in a challenging predicament vis-à-vis its conflict with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, and creates other problems if the ceasefire allows Hamas to stay in power.
On October 8, Hezbollah launched an unprovoked attack on Israel. The attack started an almost daily cycle of violence. Hezbollah launches a barrage of rockets, missiles, or drones at northern Israel — the latest being the attack on Majdal Shams that claimed the lives of 12 children. Israel then responds by shooting them down, targeting the launch areas, and attempting to thwart future attacks by killing militia members and destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s unprovoked aggression is an attempt to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has linked their violence in northern Israel to the Israeli violence in Gaza. The militia declared their attacks to be an act of solidarity with Hamas, and the Palestinians of Gaza. Despite mounting casualties and the gradual degradation of its capabilities by Israel, the militia remains undeterred. Hezbollah’s leadership repeatedly vows to continue their attacks until Israel ends its operations in Gaza. In other words, northern Israel will not experience quiet until the people of Gaza experience quiet.
Although a ceasefire in Gaza would be a welcome development, it would produce a problematic outcome for Israel along its northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollah would be empowered. It would survive its assault on Israel just as Hamas presumably would. And a dangerous precedent would be created.
By virtue of a Gaza ceasefire, Hezbollah would suspend its operations against Israel. The suspension of aggression via the ceasefire allows Hezbollah to claim a victory of sorts. The militia did not succumb to Israeli attacks; rather, it maintained solidarity with Gaza until Israel was “forced” to agree to a ceasefire.
A Gaza ceasefire allows Hezbollah to go unpunished for attacking Israel. An unpunished Hezbollah is an undeterred Hezbollah. An undeterred Hezbollah believes in its actions from the last nine months — that they succeeded, and can and will work in the future. The militia will expand its weapons stockpiles, further entrench itself along the Israeli border, and continue to insert itself into future outbreaks of violence between Israel and Palestinians. And when conflict breaks out again between Israel and Palestinian factions in the West Bank or Gaza, Hezbollah will attack northern Israel again and declare it another act of solidarity.
A Gaza ceasefire enables Hezbollah to inform the future dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The militia can influence the scope and its intensity. Going forward, Israel can expect to fight on not one but two fronts (Palestinian areas and against Hezbollah). Israel will have to make additional calculations and preparations every time it engages Palestinian elements, because of Hezbollah’s linkage to the conflict.
A Gaza ceasefire also aids Hezbollah’s long-term objective.
The terrorist militia envisions a Middle East without Israel. The willingness of the militia to continue to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas is not just about ending the fighting and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinians. Hezbollah’s intervention is also about making Israel increasingly unlivable. Hezbollah wants to squeeze the life and prosperity out of Israel. And, of course, Hezbollah is funded by Iran, which makes Israel’s eradication one of its primary missions.
Hezbollah’s aggression is intended to make Israelis leave the area. They believe that over time, an atmosphere of insecurity and disruption will become more pronounced and affect a growing number of Israelis. As the quality of life in Israel suffers, intolerance for the status quo will grow. Slowly citizens might begin to abandon Israel. Eventually, parts of Israel could resemble little more than a military outpost manned by soldiers in a hostile environment.
The last nine months foreshadowed Hezbollah’s long-term objective. Tens of thousands of Israelis from northern Israel have endured extended displacement, and some residents have relocated. Displacement for some will endure after Israel announced on July 24 the postponement of the upcoming school year in areas located near the Israeli-Lebanese border. Businesses in northern Israel have slowed or closed due to a lack of labor, consumers, and insecurity. The circumstances have harmed the quality of life in northern Israel, and Israel’s overall economy.
And if Israel responds more forcefully to these rocket attacks and prevents Hezbollah from seeing the past nine months as a victory, that will be another public relations headache for Israel. Israel already encounters criticism and pressure for its alleged “transgressions” of international law in Gaza. The criticism and pressure will be compounded by taking offensive action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli relations with Europe, Canada, and elements of the US Democratic Party will experience further strain. Europe, Canada, and some Democrats view the absence of violence produced by a ceasefire as the forerunner to security and co-existence. But that is delusional thinking.
Hezbollah is not interested in recognizing Israel, and living side by side with it. The liberal and progressive elements in Europe, Canada, and the United States fail to take seriously the absolutist objectives espoused by Hezbollah, the militia’s ongoing actions, and the growing threat it poses to Israel.
It is in the interests of Israel to keep the Hamas-Palestinian conflict as separate as possible from its conflict with Hezbollah. Failure to do so complicates an already challenging situation. Under the current circumstances, the much-discussed and anticipated ceasefire in Gaza creates a catch 22 for Israel in its dealings with Hezbollah.
Eric Bordenkircher, Ph.D., is a research fellow at UCLA’s Center for Middle East Development. He tweets at @UCLA_Eagle. The views represented in this piece are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of UCLA or the Center for Middle East Development.
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Iranian Media Claims Obtaining ‘Sensitive’ Israeli Intelligence Materials
FILE PHOTO: The atomic symbol and the Iranian flag are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
i24 News – Iranian and Iran-affiliated media claimed on Saturday that the Islamic Republic had obtained a trove of “strategic and sensitive” Israeli intelligence materials related to Israel’s nuclear facilities and defense plans.
“Iran’s intelligence apparatus has obtained a vast quantity of strategic and sensitive information and documents belonging to the Zionist regime,” Iran’s state broadcaster said, referring to Israel in the manner accepted in those Muslim or Arab states that don’t recognize its legitimacy. The statement was also relayed by the Lebanese site Al-Mayadeen, affiliated with the Iran-backed jihadists of Hezbollah.
The reports did not include any details on the documents or how Iran had obtained them.
The intelligence reportedly included “thousands of documents related to that regime’s nuclear plans and facilities,” it added.
According to the reports, “the data haul was extracted during a covert operation and included a vast volume of materials including documents, images, and videos.”
The report comes amid high tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, over which it is in talks with the US administration of President Donald Trump.
Iranian-Israeli tensions reached an all-time high since the October 7 massacre and the subsequent Gaza war, including Iranian rocket fire on Israel and Israeli aerial raids in Iran that devastated much of the regime’s air defenses.
Israel, which regards the prospect of the antisemitic mullah regime obtaining a nuclear weapon as an existential threat, has indicated it could resort to a military strike against Iran’s installations should talks fail to curb uranium enrichment.
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Israel Retrieves Body of Thai Hostage from Gaza
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz looks on, amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, in Jerusalem, Nov. 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
The Israeli military has retrieved the body of a Thai hostage who had been held in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday.
Nattapong Pinta’s body was held by a Palestinian terrorist group called the Mujahedeen Brigades, and was recovered from the area of Rafah in southern Gaza, Katz said. His family in Thailand has been notified.
Pinta, an agricultural worker, was abducted from Kibbutz Nir Oz, a small Israeli community near the Gaza border where a quarter of the population was killed or taken hostage during the Hamas attack that triggered the devastating war in Gaza.
Israel’s military said Pinta had been abducted alive and killed by his captors, who had also killed and taken to Gaza the bodies of two more Israeli-American hostages that were retrieved earlier this week.
There was no immediate comment from the Mujahedeen Brigades, who have previously denied killing their captives, or from Hamas. The Israeli military said the Brigades were still holding the body of another foreign national. Only 20 of the 55 remaining hostages are believed to still be alive.
The Mujahedeen Brigades also held and killed Israeli hostage Shiri Bibas and her two young sons, according to Israeli authorities. Their bodies were returned during a two-month ceasefire, which collapsed in March after the two sides could not agree on terms for extending it to a second phase.
Israel has since expanded its offensive across the Gaza Strip as US, Qatari and Egyptian-led efforts to secure another ceasefire have faltered.
US-BACKED AID GROUP HALTS DISTRIBUTIONS
The United Nations has warned that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli blockade of the enclave, with the rate of young children suffering from acute malnutrition nearly tripling.
Aid distribution was halted on Friday after the US-and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said overcrowding had made it unsafe to continue operations. It was unclear whether aid had resumed on Saturday.
The GHF began distributing food packages in Gaza at the end of May, overseeing a new model of aid distribution which the United Nations says is neither impartial nor neutral. It says it has provided around 9 million meals so far.
The Israeli military said on Saturday that 350 trucks of humanitarian aid belonging to U.N. and other international relief groups were transferred this week via the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza.
The war erupted after Hamas-led terrorists took 251 hostages and killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, in the October 7, 2023 attack, Israel’s single deadliest day.
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US Mulls Giving Millions to Controversial Gaza Aid Foundation, Sources Say
Palestinians carry aid supplies which they received from the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in the central Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ramadan Abed/File Photo
The State Department is weighing giving $500 million to the new foundation providing aid to war-shattered Gaza, according to two knowledgeable sources and two former US officials, a move that would involve the US more deeply in a controversial aid effort that has been beset by violence and chaos.
The sources and former US officials, all of whom requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said that money for Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) would come from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is being folded into the US State Department.
The plan has met resistance from some US officials concerned with the deadly shootings of Palestinians near aid distribution sites and the competence of the GHF, the two sources said.
The GHF, which has been fiercely criticized by humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations, for an alleged lack of neutrality, began distributing aid last week amid warnings that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli aid blockade, which was lifted on May 19 when limited deliveries were allowed to resume.
The foundation has seen senior personnel quit and had to pause handouts twice this week after crowds overwhelmed its distribution hubs.
The State Department and GHF did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Reuters has been unable to establish who is currently funding the GHF operations, which began in Gaza last week. The GHF uses private US security and logistics companies to transport aid into Gaza for distribution at so-called secure distribution sites.
On Thursday, Reuters reported that a Chicago-based private equity firm, McNally Capital, has an “economic interest” in the for-profit US contractor overseeing the logistics and security of GHF’s aid distribution hubs in the enclave.
While US President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel say they don’t finance the GHF operation, both have been pressing the United Nations and international aid groups to work with it.
The US and Israel argue that aid distributed by a long-established U.N. aid network was diverted to Hamas. Hamas has denied that.
USAID has been all but dismantled. Some 80 percent of its programs have been canceled and its staff face termination as part of President Donald Trump’s drive to align US foreign policy with his “America First” agenda.
One source with knowledge of the matter and one former senior official said the proposal to give the $500 million to GHF has been championed by acting deputy USAID Administrator Ken Jackson, who has helped oversee the agency’s dismemberment.
The source said that Israel requested the funds to underwrite GHF’s operations for 180 days.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The two sources said that some US officials have concerns with the plan because of the overcrowding that has affected the aid distribution hubs run by GHF’s contractor, and violence nearby.
Those officials also want well-established non-governmental organizations experienced in running aid operations in Gaza and elsewhere to be involved in the operation if the State Department approves the funds for GHF, a position that Israel likely will oppose, the sources said.
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