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Hezbollah Has Secretly Been Preparing for All-Out War; Is Israel in Danger?
Smoke rises from Kfar Kila, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, Lebanon, Aug. 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Karamallah Daher
On May 15, 2024, the IDF announced that a Hezbollah unmanned aircraft had hit the Israel Air Force facility that operated the Tal-Shamaim observation balloon. This strike was unusual, in that it took place deep in Israel. It drew Israel’s attention, and not only because it represented a gradual escalation in the reaction equation.
The fact that the aircraft accurately hit its target was not, in itself, the worst aspect of the incident. Hezbollah’s precision strike capabilities, including the killing of two reserve soldiers in Metula, are unfortunately not new. The new information was that the war of attrition in the north, as well as the Iranian attack on the night of April 14, serve another purpose. Those who follow the skirmishes between Hezbollah and the IDF can see patterns that indicate that the enemy is taking advantage of these exchanges of fire to study the performance of our air defense system and find its weaknesses.
Hezbollah’s favorite target is the air control base on Mount Meron, an essential facility and part of Israel’s air defense system. The enemy has attacked it dozens of times and with varied methods. The IDF has focused thus far on the limited scope of the damage and Israel’s relative success at intercepting the rockets and protecting the facility. However, it is quite possible that for the enemy, these attacks are part of a broader ongoing experiment designed to test the performance of Iron Dome. The strikes are also enabling Hezbollah to practice complex attack patterns to overcome our defenses that include coordinated UAVs, rockets, and anti-tank weapons. There is no doubt that the enemy is perfecting this technique and will use it to attack other vital targets.
For weeks there has been a trend of increasing rocket barrages on the north, many of which have hit Kiryat Shmonah and other areas. Hezbollah is undoubtedly closely monitoring the results and analyzing the capacity of Israel’s defense system to withstand large barrages for a long period. It could be that here too, the rocket barrages are intended not only to empty the Iron Dome launchers but also to serve as a diversion from the penetration of aircraft and anti-tank missiles.
The phenomenon of enemy aircraft appearing in the northern skies, some activating warnings and others not, is not accidental either. Nor are these aircraft being sent solely to conduct reconnaissance missions and detect new Israeli targets. It can be assumed that the flight paths of these aircraft are chosen to test our detection systems as well. According to reports, two aircraft participated in the attack on the Air Force facility at the Golani junction, only one of which was detected and shot down. It is possible that the downed aircraft was used as a diversion for the air defense formation while the other aircraft took a more secretive route that was analyzed by the enemy based on accumulated experience.
Hezbollah is suffering serious injuries in the war, but Israel’s intelligence and air superiority in the skies of Lebanon, however painful and harmful they may be to the enemy, are not a surprise. Hezbollah has prepared itself for war fully aware that Israel monitors southern Lebanon, mainly from the air, and will be able to locate and attack valuable targets and senior activists.
However, the importance of the weaknesses the enemy is gradually revealing in the Israeli air defense system cannot be overstated. This dangerous reality remains hidden from the Israeli eye, except perhaps for a very limited circle of air defense experts. As long as the war in the north remains an attrition campaign within a framework of reaction equations, attention is given primarily to those equations.
The IDF is not ignoring this entirely, of course. The IDF spokesman announced that in response to the attack on the Air Force facility at the Golani junction, Air Force planes had attacked a facility in the Lebanese Bekaa that is linked to Hezbollah’s precision missile program. From the report it is possible to learn not only the development of the reaction equations (a target deep in Lebanon against a target deep in Israel), but also that Israeli anxiety is growing over the precise and complex attack capability displayed by the enemy. The IDF had earlier publicized the existence of precision missile factories deep in Lebanon, but refrained from attacking them for seven months into the war. At that point, apparently, the IDF’s assessment of the situation changed. The reaction equations allowed, and the enemy’s audacity required, the attack on the precision missile factories at that time, but this was a case of shutting the stable door after the horse had bolted.
Over the months of war, the enemy has expanded not only the scope of its precise armaments and deepened its capabilities, but also – and most importantly – developed an advanced understanding of the Israeli air defense system and the operational techniques that could overcome it. If we return to the Tal-Shamaim balloon attack at the Golani junction, we can assume that the choice of target was not accidental. Anyone who studies air defense understands that such a detection balloon has one purpose: to detect cruising targets from relatively low-flying levels. The balloon’s location deep in Israel, on a plateau overlooking the Sea of Galilee, could indicate that it was intended to detect targets approaching from the east no less than those approaching from the north.
What can be learned from all this?
First, Hezbollah is building up for an all-out war. In this scenario, the first effort will be to neutralize critical components of Israeli air defenses. Such a neutralization would allow not only a free and effective attack on essential facilities in Israel, but also the paralysis of elements of the command and control system of the ground defense battle on the northern border. The results of such a paralysis, which we saw on October 7, 2023, are well remembered by every Israeli.
Second, even if it were to be an attack by fire alone, the destruction of critical components of the Israeli air defense system would leave the country’s home front exposed to continued critical attacks. A situation in which the northern cities are exposed to intense barrages without protection and civilian infrastructure is sustaining serious damage would make it very difficult for Israel to continue the war. Another version of an all-out war scenario – a significant neutralization of the Israeli air defense system – would turn the Israeli home front into a collective hostage of Hezbollah. No need to take actual prisoners.
Third, the damage to the facility at the Golani intersection could indicate Hezbollah’s intention to neutralize those elements in Israel that are intended, perhaps only in its own eyes, to serve as protection against the Iranian threat. Was this an Iranian signal?
Fourth, while it seems that there is great satisfaction in Israel about the success of our defenses at stopping the Iranian attack of April 14, the enemy might view the event quite differently. The supreme concentration of effort that night on the part of countries of the region, the United States, and all the IDF’s air and intelligence assets might have taught the enemy that our defense capacity was stretched to the limit. If that was the conclusion, the enemy might be tempted to repeat such an attack but from Lebanon, with thousands more missiles, and for a longer duration.
Both sides understand that the current attrition is the prelude to an inevitable war between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran. It is not clear whether we will escalate to this war out of the current attrition or in the medium term. Either way, those who assume the quality of defense we have experienced in the war thus far can be maintained are making dangerous assumptions. Our air defense has not only been eroded by the continuation of the war, but has been studied by the enemy. Both sides can learn, of course, but in the equation of defender and attacker, the advantage of flexibility and surprise is on the attacker’s side. This is a perilous starting point for the next war.
What can be done?
First, after the October 7 massacre, it seems that among the general public and even among the decision makers, sensitivity to the strategic and tactical meanings of the threat of fire has decreased. This needs to be fixed.
Second, the assessment of the situation in preparation for the possibility of war in the north must bring to light the erosion of the effectiveness of our defenses under current conditions. One can understand the voices calling for an immediate military solution in the north, but the severe plight of the displaced is only one variable in the assessment.
Third, the ability in principle to mount an attack on the sources of fire must be built. Even under the laboratory conditions afforded by the current exhaustion of the IDF on the northern border, the enemy is mostly succeeding at combining different attack methods into one complex attack barrage without being detected while creating an operational redundancy that ensures that some of its armaments will overcome our defenses. The terrain in the north enables the establishment of immediate attack detection and interception capabilities that will destroy at least some enemy launchers as they are firing and intercept at least some missiles as they are taking off. Such a concept would not only serve as an additional front layer for the defense of the country but would also make the launching of missiles and rockets from Lebanon much more dangerous for Hezbollah. It would turn the attacker into the defender, the defender into the attacker, and transfer some of the attacker’s advantages to the IDF.
In light of October 7, it is essential that we maintain critical vigilance about our hidden assumptions. The focus on ground attack scenarios only, a misunderstanding of the connection between the fire threat and the ground threat, and the assumption that the Israeli defense system has passed the test and will continue to do so are all assumptions that require careful review under current circumstances.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal recently retired from military service as commander of the Dado Center for Multidisciplinary Military Thinking. He is a well-known military thinker both in Israel and abroad. His works have been published in The Military Review, War on the Rocks, Small Wars Journal, at the Hoover Institution, at Stanford, and elsewhere. His book The Battle Before the War (MOD 2022, in Hebrew) dealt with the IDF’s need to change, innovate and renew a decisive war approach. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Argentine Jews Express Outrage After Venezuela’s Maduro Blasts Argentina Government as ‘Nazi and Zionist’
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro speaks during a march amid the disputed presidential election, in Caracas, Venezuela, Aug. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Maxwell Briceno
The Jewish community in Argentina lambasted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro this week after he described Argentina’s government as “Nazi and Zionist” while addressing on ongoing dispute between the two countries over the arrest of an Argentine military officer in Venezuela.
“A terrorist like this famous Argentine has been captured. The Nazi and Zionist government of Argentina wants us to award him a decoration,” Maduro said during an event on Wednesday in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital.
Maduro was addressing the situation of Nahuel Gallo, a corporal in Argentina’s Gendarmería security force who was arrested in Venezuela last month and charged with terrorism. The socialist Venezuelan government accused Gallo of “being part of a group of people who tried to commit destabilizing and terrorist acts [in Venezuela] with the support of international far-right groups.”
Argentina is currently governed by the right-wing administration of President Javier Milei, whose security minister, Patricia Bullrich, described the charges as “another lie” by Venezuela’s government and said that Gallo should be returned to Argentina “immediately.”
Gallo’s relatives said that he had traveled to Venezuela to visit his wife, who is Venezuelan and was reportedly in the country to spend time with her mother.
Venezuela broke diplomatic relations with Argentina in August after Milei and several other Latin American leaders refused to recognize Maduro’s reelection in July. While Argentina’s diplomats were expelled, some Venezuelan opposition activists, who had sought refuge at the ambassador’s residence to avoid arrest, have since then remained in the building, having been denied safe passage in Venezuela and seeking political asylum in Argentina.
On Monday, Maduro accused Gallo of being part of a plot to assassinate his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. The next day, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said that Gallo is being held “hostage” by Maduro’s government.
Against this backdrop, Argentina’s Jewish umbrella organization, the Delegation of Argentine Israelite Associations (DAIA), on Thursday released a statement slamming Maduro for using the term “Nazi and Zionist” to describe their government.
“In the context of the conflict with Argentina over the gendarme Nahuel Gallo detained in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro called the government of our country ‘Nazi and Zionist.’ The phrase not only trivializes the tragedy of the Holocaust, diminishing its importance and impact, but also refers to Zionism as a disqualifying insult, even though it represents the legitimate existence of the State of Israel,” the DAIA said in its statement.
“At the same time,” the group continued, “it reveals the violent characteristics of the dictatorial regime that has subjected the Venezuelan people to slavery for years. It does so by exercising terror and oppression on those who fight to reestablish the path of democracy. DAIA condemns Maduro’s violent expressions and expresses its support for those who seek to live in a free and pluralistic society in which human rights are respected.”
Maduro has regularly used antisemitic rhetoric during his time in power in Venezuela. In August, for example, he blamed “international Zionism” for the protests against his reign following the country’s July 28 elections after which he claimed victory despite widespread suspicions of foul play.
The “extremist right,” referring to his opposition, “is supported by international Zionism,” Maduro claimed in an address at the time. “All the communication power of Zionism, who controls all social networks, the satellites, and all the power behind this coup d’état.”
Deborah Lipstadt, the US special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, called Maduro’s claims “absurd,” “antisemitic,” and “unacceptable.”
Maduro has been in power since 2013 and has overseen a dramatic economic decline in Venezuela. Redirecting personal failures as the fault of Jews, or, in this case, “international Zionism,” has long been a tactic of antisemites looking for a scapegoat.
Protests and unrest erupted in Venezuela after the presidential election in July, when Maduro’s government was accused by his political opposition, outside observers, and foreign governments of committing fraud to secure a victory.
Nonetheless, Maduro on Friday began his third term as Venezuela’s president, despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken referring to his “illegitimate presidential inauguration in Venezuela” as a “desperate attempt” to seize power.
“The Venezuelan people and world know the truth — Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency,” Blinken said in a statement. “The United States rejects the National Electoral Council’s fraudulent announcement that Maduro won the presidential election and does not recognize Nicolás Maduro as the president of Venezuela.”
Edmundo González Urrutia should have been sworn in as the Venezuelan president, according to the US State Department.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar agreed, posting on X/Twitter that the Jewish state “expresses concern over the political persecution and arbitrary arrests by the regime and joins the call of many in the international community to restore freedom and democracy in Venezuela.”
“Today, Jan. 10, Edmundo González Urrutia, the elected president of Venezuela, who won the presidential elections by a significant majority, was supposed to be inaugurated,” Sa’ar added. “However, the election results are not being respected, and his inauguration is not taking place. The ruler, Nicolás Maduro, an ally of Iran, must honor the will of the people in his country.”
In Argentina, meanwhile, Milei has expressed admiration for Judaism and support for Israel. He appointed Rabbi Axel Wahnish, who has served as his spiritual advisor for the last two years, as Argentina’s ambassador to Israel and has studied Torah and other Jewish texts. The Catholic Milei has previously said that were it not for the duties of his office, which require him to work on the Sabbath and on Jewish holidays, he would convert to Judaism.
Argentina has become a key player in organizing efforts to combat antisemitism in recent months. In July, for example, more than 30 countries led by the United States adopted “global guidelines for countering antisemitism” during a gathering of special envoys and other representatives from around the globe in Argentina.
The gathering came one day before Argentina’s Jewish community commemorated the 30th anniversary of the 1994 targeted bombing of the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Milei promised to right decades of inaction and inconsistencies in the investigations into the attack.
In April, Argentina’s top criminal court blamed Iran for the attack, saying it was carried out by Hezbollah terrorists responding to “a political and strategic design” by Iran.
Iran is the chief international sponsor of Hamas, providing the terror group with weapons, funding, and training.
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Tlaib Sports Palestinian Keffiyeh at Carter Funeral, Thanks Late President for ‘Speaking Out Against Apartheid’
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) addresses attendees as she takes part in a protest calling for a ceasefire in Gaza outside the US Capitol, in Washington, DC, US, Oct. 18, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Leah Millis
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), one of the most strident opponents of Israel in Congress, wore a Palestinian keffiyeh to the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter, commemorating the late American leader’s advocacy against so-called “apartheid” in the Jewish state.
“Rest in peace, President Jimmy Carter. It was an honor to be there with your family. I wore my Palestinian keffiyeh to show my gratitude for your courageous stance in speaking out against apartheid and standing up for peace,” Tlaib posted on X/Twitter, along with a picture of her keffyeh.
Rest in peace, President Jimmy Carter. It was an honor to be there with your family. I wore my Palestinian keffiyeh to show my gratitude for your courageous stance in speaking out against apartheid and standing up for peace. pic.twitter.com/Vf0XLN2BtJ
— Rashida Tlaib (@RashidaTlaib) January 9, 2025
The keffiyeh, a traditional Arab headscarf, has become known as a symbol of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and opposition to Israel since the outbreak of the war in Gaza in October 2023.
High-profile politicians, including all five living US presidents, attended Carter’s funeral at the National Cathedral in Washington, DC on Thursday. The former president died on Dec. 29, 2024 at 100 years old due to heart failure.
Over the past couple of decades, Carter’s public commentary on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has ruffled feathers among supporters of the Jewish state. In 2006, Carter raised eyebrows after publishing a book titled, Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid, which condemned Israel for constructing settlements in the West Bank and accused the Jewish state of constructing a racially-discriminatory political regime.
In 2009, Carter traveled to the Middle East and held meetings with leaders of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. Critics noted that he did not criticize Hamas leadership during his meeting and praised the terrorists as being “frank and honest.”
In 2015, Carter further incensed proponents of the Jewish state when he seemingly defended senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal and argued that the terrorist group was not an obstacle to peace in the region.
“I don’t believe that [Mashal’s] a terrorist. He’s strongly in favor of the peace process,” Carter said at the time.
“I don’t see that deep commitment on the part of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to make concessions which [former Prime Minister] Menachem Begin did to find peace with his potential enemies,” Carter continued.
Since entering Congress, Tlaib has positioned herself as one of the most vocal anti-Israel critics in US politics. Tlaib, the first Palestinian American woman to serve in the House of Representatives, has repeatedly used her platform to lodge condemnations against Israel.
The congresswoman has accused Israel of committing “apartheid” against Palestinians. In the year following Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, Tlaib has smeared the Jewish state’s defensive military operations as a “genocide,” calling on US President Joe Biden to force a “ceasefire” between Israel and the terrorist group and implement an “arms embargo” against the Jewish state.
On Thursday, Tlaib slammed the House for passing a bill which would sanction members of the International Criminal Court (ICC) over its issuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant
“What’s their top priority the first week of the new Congress? Lowering costs? Addressing the housing crisis? No, it’s sanctioning the International Criminal Court to protect genocidal maniac Netanyahu so he can continue the genocide in Gaza,” Tlaib wrote on social media.
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Sydney Synagogue Daubed in Antisemitic Graffiti in Latest Attack on Australian Jews
Southern Sydney Synagogue in the suburb of Allawah, Australia, was vandalized with antisemitic graffiti on Jan. 10, 2024. Photo: Screenshot
A synagogue in Sydney was daubed in antisemitic graffiti on Friday, police said, the latest in a spate of incidents targeting Jews in Australia.
Police will deploy a special task force to investigate the attack on the Southern Sydney Synagogue in the suburb of Allawah that happened in the early hours of Friday morning, New South Wales state Police Assistant Commissioner Peter McKenna told a news conference.
“The people who do the sort of thing should realize we will be out in force to look for them; we will catch them and prosecute them,” he said.
Television footage showed multiple swastikas painted on the building, along with a message reading “Hitler on top.”
“[There is] no place in Australia, our tolerant multicultural community, for this sort of criminal activity,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told a news conference.
The incident is the latest in a series of antisemitic incidents in Australia in the last year, including multiple incidents of graffiti on buildings and cars in Sydney, as well as arson attack on a synagogue in Melbourne that police have ruled as terrorism.
Australia has seen an increase in antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023 and Israel launched its war against the Palestinian terrorist group in Gaza. Some Jewish organizations have said the government has not taken sufficient action in response.
The country launched a task force last month following the Melbourne synagogue blaze, focusing on threats, violence, and hatred towards the Australian Jewish community.
Australia’s ice hockey federation said on Tuesday it had cancelled a planned international qualifying tournament due to safety concerns, with local media reporting the decision was linked to the participation of the Israeli national team.
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