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A Threat From Russia: The Wounded Maestro of Chaos May Strike Back
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visit the Hmeymim air base in Latakia Province, Syria, Dec. 11, 2017. Photo: Special Report RUSSIA-FLIGHTS/ Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/ via REUTERS
Russia is wounded. It is bleeding and embarrassed. For a country with a history of asserting and reasserting its pride, a diminished standing is not what Vladimir Putin had in mind.
Russia’s strategy in confronting the unipolar world presided over by the United States and replacing it with a new world order where old rules no longer apply can succinctly be described as chaos. That approach has worked and delivered spectacular victories for Russia, which has been expanding its influence in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and South America.
The last four American presidents have been unable and at times unwilling to stop the pace of Russia’s expansion. It looked like in the fight for world order, the West stood no chance.
Then came the quagmire in Ukraine, which Russia spun as another form of chaos, and finally the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria, the pillar of Russia’s expansion in the Middle East. Suddenly, it turns out, nobody, not even Russia, controls chaos and the fires started by the Kremlin may actually burn the arsonist.
The loss of Syria came, to repeat the words of Ernest Hemingway, “gradually and then suddenly.” The civil war in Syria started in 2011. In 2015, when it looked like the regime of Bashar al-Assad may not survive, Vladimir Putin saw an opportunity to reinsert Russia back into the Middle East. Russia intervened and saved the regime in Damascus.
The latest bout of instability began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas stormed and massacred communities in the south of Israel. It is unclear if Russia had its hand in planning any part of the attack, but it definitely encouraged Hamas’ behavior by supporting Hamas in international forums, giving its full support to Iran, and openly welcoming Hamas’ leadership in Moscow. Given the Kremlin’s close relationship with Hamas and Russia’s intelligence connections with Iran and Hezbollah, it is difficult to assume Russia had no idea about Hamas’ plans.
After October 7, Russia did everything in its power to prolong and escalate the conflict. It sided with the critics of Israel in international forums. It condemned every action Israel has taken in self defense. It supported Hezbollah and Iran militarily.
Given the vast quantities of modern Russian weapons found by the Israel Defense Forces in Lebanon, Russian support was not relegated to warm words and propaganda only. Russia’s plan was to inflame the Middle East even further. It wanted to draw Israel and the United States into direct conflict with terror proxies and Iran. Absolute chaos in the Middle East served Russia’s interest to divert American resources elsewhere from Europe, and to gain maximum freedom of action in Ukraine. And it almost achieved that goal — until the chaos came for Moscow.
From Stalin onward, Soviet and then Russia’s foreign policy is the reflection of its domestic struggles. Vladimir Putin, like most of his predecessors, spent too much time dealing with domestic “enemies.” Like Stalin, he succeeded in crushing all domestic dissent. That achievement, however, accustomed him to the environment where he, as the only real player, controls the time and rules.
Putin lost any respect for or fear of the United States, he believed Israel to be nothing more than America’s puppet, and stopped paying attention to “small” pieces of the puzzle, such as Syria. His view of America, at least its current administration, was not completely wrong.
However, Israel’s willingness to fight for its survival even against American wishes likely surprised Putin. Perhaps old Soviet condescension towards the Jewish State played a role. Pushed too far by the threats from all sides, Israel, in a series of masterful blows, eliminated Hezbollah as a military force (at least for the moment). Back in 2015, Hezbollah saved Assad from defeat. It provided the boots on the ground — fighters willing to die to save the regime. Now that force was demoralized, fighting for its own survival. The rebels sensed that weakness and with Turkey’s help and encouragement, sent Assad packing for his “dacha” in Moscow.
It is unclear if Russia’s bases will remain in Syria. They may — as whoever will control Syria in the near future may find it useful to play Russia against the US and Iran. However, Russia’s status in Syria will diminish significantly. The very same chaos that brought Russia back to the Middle East seems to have expelled it as suddenly, a mere decade later.
Putin was looking forward to the “reset” provided by Donald Trump and his desire to negotiate some agreement over Ukraine. Russia was approaching the future negotiations from a position of growing strength. That was only a month ago. Vladimir Putin feels personally humiliated by Assad’s collapse. Betraying allies was exclusively an American thing. That is not the case anymore. Putin will try to improve his world position before the talks over Ukraine commence. He is angry and may become reckless. Georgia and Moldova provide two immediate opportunities to re-asset Russia’s standing. The outgoing and new administrations must be vigilant and ready for Russia, the wounded maestro of the chaos, to strike back.
The author lives and works in Silicon Valley, California. He is a founding member of San Francisco Voice for Israel.
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Trump Says Iran Must Give Up Dream of Nuclear Weapon or Face Harsh Response
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
President Donald Trump said on Monday he believes Iran is intentionally delaying a nuclear deal with the United States and that it must abandon any drive for a nuclear weapon or face a possible military strike on Tehran’s atomic facilities.
“I think they’re tapping us along,” Trump told reporters after US special envoy Steve Witkoff met in Oman on Saturday with a senior Iranian official.
Both Iran and the United States said on Saturday that they held “positive” and “constructive” talks in Oman. A second round is scheduled for Saturday, and a source briefed on the planning said the meeting was likely to be held in Rome.
The source, speaking to Reuters on the condition of anonymity, said the discussions are aimed at exploring what is possible, including a broad framework of what a potential deal would look like.
“Iran has to get rid of the concept of a nuclear weapon. They cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
Asked if US options for a response include a military strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, Trump said: “Of course it does.”
Trump said the Iranians need to move fast to avoid a harsh response because “they’re fairly close” to developing a nuclear weapon.
The US and Iran held indirect talks during former President Joe Biden’s term but they made little, if any progress. The last known direct negotiations between the two governments were under then-President Barack Obama, who spearheaded the 2015 international nuclear deal that Trump later abandoned.
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No Breakthrough in Gaza Talks, Egyptian and Palestinian Sources Say
Families and supporters of Israeli hostages kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas gather to demand a deal that will bring back all the hostages held in Gaza, outside a meeting between hostage representatives and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in Jerusalem, Jan. 14, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
The latest round of talks in Cairo to restore the defunct Gaza ceasefire and free Israeli hostages ended with no apparent breakthrough, Palestinian and Egyptian sources said on Monday.
The sources said Hamas had stuck to its position that any agreement must lead to an end to the war in Gaza.
Israel, which restarted its military campaign in Gaza last month after a ceasefire agreed in January unraveled, has said it will not end the war until Hamas is stamped out. The terrorist group has ruled out any proposal that it lay down its arms.
But despite that fundamental disagreement, the sources said a Hamas delegation led by the group’s Gaza Chief Khalil Al-Hayya had shown some flexibility over how many hostages it could free in return for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel should a truce be extended.
An Egyptian source told Reuters the latest proposal to extend the truce would see Hamas free an increased number of hostages. Israeli minister Zeev Elkin, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet, told Army Radio on Monday that Israel was seeking the release of around 10 hostages, raised from previous Hamas consent to free five.
Hamas has asked for more time to respond to the latest proposal, the Egyptian source said.
“Hamas has no problem, but it wants guarantees Israel agrees to begin the talks on the second phase of the ceasefire agreement” leading to an end to the war, the Egyptian source said.
AIRSTRIKES
Hamas terrorists freed 33 Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian detainees during the six-week first phase of the ceasefire which began in January. But the second phase, which was meant to begin at the start of March and lead to the end of the war, was never launched.
Meanwhile, 59 Israeli hostages remain in the hands of the terrorists. Israel believes up to 24 of them are alive.
Palestinians say the wave of Israeli attacks since the collapse of the ceasefire has been among the deadliest and most intense of the war, hitting an exhausted population surviving in the enclave’s ruins.
In Jabalia, a community on Gaza’s northern edge, rescue workers in orange vests were trying to smash through concrete with a sledgehammer to recover bodies buried underneath a building that collapsed in an Israeli strike.
Feet and a hand of one person could be seen under a concrete slab. Men carried a body wrapped in a blanket. Workers at the scene said as many as 25 people had been killed.
The Israeli military said it had struck there against terrorists planning an ambush.
In Khan Younis in the south, a camp of makeshift tents had been shredded into piles of debris by an airstrike. Families had returned to poke through the rubbish in search of belongings.
“We used to live in houses. They were destroyed. Now, our tents have been destroyed too. We don’t know where to stay,” said Ismail al-Raqab, who returned to the area after his family fled the raid before dawn.
EGYPT’S SISI MEETS QATARI EMIR
The leaders of the two Arab countries that have led the ceasefire mediation efforts, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, met in Doha on Sunday. The Egyptian source said Sisi had called for additional international guarantees for a truce agreement, beyond those provided by Egypt and Qatar themselves.
US President Donald Trump, who has backed Israel’s decision to resume its campaign and called for the Palestinian population of Gaza to leave the territory, said last week that progress was being made in returning the hostages.
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Iranian Foreign Minister to Visit Moscow Ahead of Second Iran-US Meeting
FILE PHOTO: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi speaks as he meets with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein, in Baghdad, Iraq October 13, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ahmed Saad/File Photo
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Russia this week ahead of a planned second round of talks between Tehran and Washington aimed at resolving Iran’s decades-long nuclear stand-off with the West.
Araqchi and US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held talks in Oman on Saturday, during which Omani envoy Badr al-Busaidi shuttled between the two delegations sitting in different rooms at his palace in Muscat.
Both sides described the talks in Oman as “positive,” although a senior Iranian official told Reuters the meeting “was only aimed at setting the terms of possible future negotiations.”
Italian news agency ANSA reported that Italy had agreed to host the talks’ second round, and Iraq’s state news agency said Araqchi told his Iraqi counterpart that talks would be held “soon” in the Italian capital under Omani mediation.
Tehran has approached the talks warily, doubting the likelihood of an agreement and suspicious of Trump, who has threatened to bomb Iran if there is no deal.
Washington aims to halt Tehran’s sensitive uranium enrichment work – regarded by the United States, Israel and European powers as a path to nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is solely for civilian energy production.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Araqchi will “discuss the latest developments related to the Muscat talks” with Russian officials.
Moscow, a party to Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact, has supported Tehran’s right to have a civilian nuclear program.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on vital state matters, distrusts the United States, and Trump in particular.
But Khamenei has been forced to engage with Washington in search of a nuclear deal due to fears that public anger at home over economic hardship could erupt into mass protests and endanger the existence of the clerical establishment, four Iranian officials told Reuters in March.
Tehran’s concerns were exacerbated by Trump’s speedy revival of his “maximum pressure” campaign when he returned to the White House in January.
During his first term, Trump ditched Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on the Islamic regime.
Since 2019, Iran has far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on uranium enrichment, producing stocks at a high level of fissile purity, well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy program and close to that required for nuclear warheads.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised the alarm regarding Iran’s growing stock of 60% enriched uranium, and reported no real progress on resolving long-running issues, including the unexplained presence of uranium traces at undeclared sites.
IAEA head Rafael Grossi will visit Tehran on Wednesday, Iranian media reported, in an attempt to narrow gaps between Tehran and the agency over unresolved issues.
“Continued engagement and cooperation with the agency is essential at a time when diplomatic solutions are urgently needed,” Grossi said on X on Monday.
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