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Israel and the Middle East: Could There Be a Regional Nuclear War?

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi meets with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 14, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Current synergies between Palestinian statehood and regional nuclear war remain generally ignored. Once formally established, a Palestinian state could significantly impact the Israel-Iran balance of power, and also lead to the acceleration of competitive risk-taking in the region.

Though any impending war between Israel and Iran would be fought without a “Palestine” factor, one predictable outcome of such a conflict would be increased pressure on Israel to accept a dedicated enemy state. To be sure, Iran’s leaders are generally unconcerned about Palestinian well-being per se, but even a faux commitment in Tehran to Palestinian statehood could weaken Israel’s overall safety.

Any formal creation of “Palestine” would be viewed by Iran as favorable to its own regional power position. For Israel, a “Two-State Solution” would enlarge not “only” the jihadi terror threat to Israel (both conventional and unconventional), but also the prospects for a catastrophic regional war. Even if such a war were fought while Iran was still pre-nuclear, Tehran could use radiation dispersal weapons or electromagnetic pulse weapons (EMP) against Israel and/or target Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor with conventional rockets.

In one conspicuously ignored scenario, Iran’s North Korean nuclear ally would engage in direct belligerency against the Jewish State. Should that be allowed (and it would not be without historical precedent), a continuously ambiguous Israeli nuclear posture could fatally undermine Jerusalem’s nuclear deterrent.

In this connection, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations ought never be confined to “general principles.” Instead, specific issues will need to be addressed head-on: borders; Jerusalem; relations between Gaza and the “West Bank;” the Cairo Declaration of June 1974 (an annihilationist “phased plan”); the Arab “right of return” and cancellation of the “Palestine National Charter” (which calls unapologetically for eradication of Israel “in stages”).

Memory will be important. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), “parent” of the extant Palestine Authority (PA), was formed in 1964, three years before there were any “Israel Occupied Territories.” So what, it must be asked, was this terror group seeking to “liberate?”

For Israel, among other things, any justice-based plan for Palestinians would also need to acknowledge the historical and legal rights of the Jewish people in Judea and Samaria. Such an acknowledgment would represent an indispensable corrective to flagrantly lawless Hamas claims of resistance “by any means necessary” and to literally genocidal Palestinian calls for “liberation from the river to the sea.” On its face, the authentic Palestinian expectation is always that Israel become part of “Palestine.”

What about North Korea and future wars in the Middle East? Pyongyang has a documented history of active support for Iran and Syria. On ties with Damascus, it was Kim Jung Un who built the Al Kibar nuclear reactor for the Syrians at Deir al-Zor. This is the same facility that was preemptively destroyed by Israel in its “Operation Orchard” (also known in certain Israeli circles as “Operation Outside the Box”) on September 6, 2007. In the absence of “Orchard,” new post-Assad jihadists in Syria (primarily HTS) would have inherited an already-existing nuclear weapons option.

For Israel, nuclear weapons, doctrine and strategy remain essential to national survival. But the country’s traditional policy of “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” or “bomb in the basement” should immediately be updated.

The key objective of needed changes would be more credible Israeli nuclear deterrence, a goal that would correlate closely with “selective nuclear disclosure.” While counter-intuitive, Iran will need to be convinced that Israel’s nuclear arms are not too destructive for purposeful operational use. In what amounts to an arguably supreme irony, the credibility of Israel’s nuclear deterrent could sometime vary inversely with its presumed destructiveness.

For the moment, Iran should be considered as a rational foe. It remains conceivable, of course, that Iran could still act irrationally, perhaps in alliance with other more-or-less rational states and/or kindred jihadi terror groups, but such prospects ought to be anticipated as exceptional, episodic, or idiosyncratic.

What about non-Arab Pakistan? Unless Jerusalem were to consider Pakistan a genuine enemy, Israel has no present-day nuclear foes. Still, as an unstable Islamic state, Pakistan is continuously subject to coup d’état by jihadi elements and is aligned in various ways with both Saudi Arabia and China. At some point the Sunni Saudi kingdom could decide to “go nuclear” itself, largely because of Iran’s “Shiite” nuclear program.

Would such a consequential decision by Riyadh represent a net gain or net loss for Israel? It’s not too soon to ask this question. Derivatively, Jerusalem should consider potentially correlative decisions by Egypt and Turkey. Facing a nuclearizing Iran, might Israel actually be better off with a simultaneously nuclearizing Egypt and/or Turkey?

On elemental nuclear issues. truth may remain counter-intuitive. For Israeli nuclear deterrence to work longer-term, Iran will need to be told more rather than less about Israel’s nuclear targeting doctrine and the invulnerability of Israel’s nuclear forces/infrastructures.

In concert with such changes, Jerusalem should better clarify its presently too-opaque “Samson Option.” The key objective of such clarifications would not be to suggest Israel’s willingness to die with its belligerent Arab neighbors, but to enhance nuclear deterrence.

For Israel, the risks of Palestinian statehood could prove irreversible, irremediable, and existential. These risks would be enlarged if they were incurred simultaneously with an Israel-Iran war. It follows that Jerusalem’s most basic security obligation should be to keep Iran non–nuclear and to oppose Palestinian statehood in any form. On this obligation, the “whole” would assuredly be greater than the sum of its “parts.”

Long before the current Gaza War, a significant fraction of Palestinians wanted Jews “annihilated.” This unhidden exterminatory sentiment remains rooted in certain canonical hadith, and is specifically quoted in the Hamas Covenant. Regarding the Covenant’s explicit call for genocide of “The Jews”:

… the Islamic Resistance Movement aspires to realize the promise of Allah, no matter how long it takes. The Prophet, Allah’s prayer and peace be upon him, says: “The hour of judgment shall not come until the Muslims fight the Jews, and kill them, so that the Jews hide behind trees and stones, and each tree and stone will say: `Oh Muslim, oh servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him…” (Sahih Muslim, Book 41, Number 6985).

There is also an ideological role, as Palestinian and other Islamist terror groups and states use Martyrdom to convince their populations to die in the pursuit of killing Jews. To survive amid multiple synergies, Jerusalem must first learn how to transform an enemy presumption that links “martyrdom” to the conquest of time (and even death).

In Jerusalem and also in Washington, key decision-makers should finally realize that the Jihadist fighter sees himself or herself as a religious sacrifice. Here, each individual foe, whether Sunni or Shiite, aims to escape from profane time. By willfully abandoning the profane clock time that imprison ordinary mortals, the Jihadist slaughters “heathen” and “infidel” in an ecstatically grateful exchange for “immortality.”

In essence, the Jihadist terrorist kills and dies in order to end the sovereignty of unbelievers. When Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists raped, tortured, and murdered Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, their aim was lascivious and primal; it was not “Palestine.”

The barbarisms of October 7 were not merely sanctioned by several Palestinian authorities. They were undertaken in alleged fulfillment of a divine commandment: “Against them make ready your strength to the utmost of your power, including steeds of war, to strike terror into the hearts of the enemies of God and your enemies, and others besides, whom ye may not know, but whom God doth know.” (Koran 8:60) Also: “But when the forbidden months are past, then fight and slay the pagans wherever ye find them, and seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them in every stratagem of war…” (Koran 9:5)

Going forward on all security fronts, Israeli strategists should also draw systematically on modern lessons of asymmetric warfare. In The Quranic Concept of War (1979), Pakistani Brigadier General S. K. Malik observes: “Terror struck into the hearts of the enemies is not only a means, it is the end in itself. Once a condition of terror into the opponent’s heart is obtained, hardly anything is left to be achieved.”

Nonetheless, when understood in terms of the hazards of Palestinian statehood, the most genuinely overriding threat of jihadi terror would stem from force-multiplying interactions with Iranian nuclearization. It follows that Israeli strategic planners should always approach these threats as synergistic.

Prof. Louis René Beres was educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971) and is the author of many books and scholarly articles dealing with international law, nuclear strategy, nuclear war, and terrorism. In Israel, Prof. Beres was Chair of Project Daniel (PM Sharon). His 12th and latest book is Surviving Amid Chaos: Israel’s Nuclear Strategy (Rowman & Littlefield, 2016; 2nd ed., 2018). 

The post Israel and the Middle East: Could There Be a Regional Nuclear War? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Israel’s Supreme Court Orders Improved Food for Security Prisoners

Israel’s Supreme Court. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

i24 NewsIsrael’s Supreme Court on Sunday instructed the Prison Service (Shabas) to guarantee adequate food supplies for security prisoners, ruling that current conditions fall short of minimum legal standards. The decision followed an appeal filed by the Association for Civil Rights in Israel.

In a 2–1 ruling, the court found that the food situation posed “a risk of non-compliance with legal standards.” Justice Dafna Barak-Erez stressed that the matter concerned “basic conditions necessary for survival, as required by law,” not comfort or privilege. Justice Ofer Grosskopf agreed, noting the state had not shown the policy was consistently applied to all inmates.

Justice David Mintz dissented, maintaining that the existing policy already met legal requirements.

The court underscored that Israel’s legal obligations remain binding, even in light of the ongoing hostage crisis in Gaza and the fact that many of the prisoners include Hamas members involved in the October 7, 2023 attack.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir condemned the ruling, arguing that while hostages in Gaza lack protection, “terrorist murderers, kidnappers, and rapists in prison” benefit from the Court’s intervention. He added that prisoners would continue receiving only the minimum conditions required by law.

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Ukrainian Government Building Set Ablaze in Record Russian Airstrike

Illustrative. More damage caused by the Russian drone that hit the Perlina school in Kyiv, Ukraine, Oct. 30, 2024. Photo: Jewish community JCC in Kyiv, Kyiv municipality, and Yan Dobronosov

i24 NewsThe Ukrainian government’s main building in Kyiv was hit overnight Saturday by Russian airstrikes for the first time since the war, igniting a fire in the building, authorities said. Firefighters are working to put out the flames.

“The government building was damaged by an enemy attack — the roof and upper floors,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko said. The blaze is is burning in the area of the office of the prime minister.

Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched a total of 805 drones and 13 missiles overnight on Ukraine — a record number since the start of the war.

Also as a result of the strike, a baby and a young woman were killed after a nine-story residential building was hit in the Svyatoshynsky district, also in Kyiv. Rescuers are still looking for a third body, authorities said. A woman was also reported killed in the strike in Novopavlivka village.

“The world must respond to this destruction not only with words, but also with actions. We need to increase sanctions pressure – primarily against Russian oil and gas. We need new restrictions that will hit the Kremlin’s military machine. And most importantly, Ukraine needs weapons. Something that will stop the terror and prevent Russia from trying to kill Ukrainians every day,” wrote Sviridenko after the attack.

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‘Trump’s Legacy Crumbles’: Israelis Call on US President to End Gaza War

Israeli protestors take part in a rally demanding the immediate release of the hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, and the end of war in Gaza, in Jerusalem September 6, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

Thousands of Israelis rallied in Tel Aviv on Saturday night, issuing direct appeals to US President Donald Trump to force an end to the Gaza war and secure the release of the hostages.

Protesters packed a public square outside the military headquarters, waving Israeli flags and holding placards with images of the hostages. Some carried signs, including one that read: ‘Trump’s legacy crumbles as the Gaza war persists.’

Another said: “PRESIDENT TRUMP, SAVE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”

“We think that Trump is the only man in the world who has authority over Bibi, that can force Bibi to do this,” said Tel Aviv resident Boaz, 40, referring to the Israeli prime minister.

There is growing despair among many Israelis at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has ordered the military to capture a major urban center where hostages may be held.

Families of the hostages and their supporters fear the assault on Gaza City could endanger their loved ones, a concern the military leadership shares, according to Israeli officials.

Orna Neutra, the mother of an Israeli soldier who was killed on October 7, 2023 and whose body is being held in Gaza by militants, accused the government of abandoning its citizens.

“We truly hope that the United States will push both sides to finally reach a comprehensive deal that will bring them home,” she told the rally. Her son, Omer, is also American.

Tel Aviv has witnessed weekly demonstrations that have grown in size, with protesters demanding that the government secure a ceasefire with Hamas to obtain the release of hostages. Organizers said Saturday night’s rally was attended by tens of thousands. A large demonstration was also held in Jerusalem.

There are 48 hostages held in Gaza. Israeli officials believe that around 20 are still alive. Palestinian terrorists abducted 251 people from Israel on October 7, 2023, when Hamas led its attack. Most of the hostages who have been released were freed after indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

NO PURPOSE

Trump had pledged a swift end to the war in Gaza during his presidential campaign, but nearly eight months into his second term, a resolution has remained elusive. On Friday, he said that Washington was engaged in “very deep” negotiations with Hamas.

Israeli forces have carried out heavy strikes on the suburbs of Gaza City, where, according to a global hunger monitor, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are facing famine. Israeli officials acknowledge that hunger exists in Gaza but deny that the territory is facing famine. On Saturday, the military warned civilians in Gaza City to leave and move to southern Gaza.

There are hundreds of thousands of Palestinians sheltering in the city that was home to around a million before the war.

A video released by Hamas on Friday featured Israeli hostage Guy Gilboa-Dalal, 24, saying that he was being held in Gaza City and feared being killed by the military’s assault on the city. Rights groups have condemned such videos of hostages as inhumane. Israel says that it is psychological warfare.

The war has become unpopular among some segments of Israeli society, and opinion polls show that most Israelis want Netanyahu’s right-wing government to negotiate a permanent ceasefire with Hamas that secures the release of the hostages.

“The war has no purpose at all, except for violence and death,” said Boaz from Tel Aviv. Adam, 48, said it had become obvious that soldiers were being sent to war for “nothing.”

Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military since it launched its retaliatory war after Hamas fighters attacked Israel from Gaza in October 2023. Around 1,200 people were killed in that attack on southern Israel.

The terrorist group, which has ruled Gaza for nearly two decades but today controls only parts of the enclave, on Saturday once again said that it would release all hostages if Israel agreed to end the war and withdraw its forces from Gaza.

Netanyahu is pushing for an all-or-nothing deal that would see all of the hostages released at once and Hamas surrendering.

The prime minister has said Gaza City is a Hamas stronghold and capturing it is necessary to defeat the Palestinian militant group, whose October 2023 attack on Israel led to the war.

Hamas has acknowledged it would no longer govern Gaza once the war ends but has refused to discuss laying down its weapons.

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