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A Black writer explores how Germany remembers its ‘unthinkable’ past

(JTA) — For his 2021 book “How the Word Is Passed,” winner of the National Book Critics Circle Award for Nonfiction, poet and journalist Clint Smith explored the landscape of American memory — specifically how the history of slavery is explained, commemorated, distorted and desecrated in sites across the United States.

While on tour promoting the book, he explained in an interview Tuesday, he’d often be asked if any country had gotten it right when it came to memorializing its own dark past. “I kept invoking the memorials in Germany, but I had never been to the memorials in Germany,” Smith said. “As a scholar, as a journalist, I felt like I had to do my due diligence and excavate the complexity and the nuance, and the emotional and human texture, that undergirds so many of these places and spaces.”

The result is December’s cover story in the Atlantic, “Monuments to the Unthinkable.” Smith traveled to Germany twice over the past two years, visiting Berlin’s Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe, its Topography of Terror Museum, the museum in Wannsee where the Nazis plotted the Final Solution, and the concentration camp at Dachau, talking to historians and curators along the way. As a Black man wrestling with how America accounts for the crimes of its past, he went to learn from the experience of the Germans, who “are still trying to figure out how to tell the story of what their country did, and simultaneously trying to figure out who should tell it.” 

In an interview, Smith talked about the inevitable differences between the Holocaust and the Atlantic slave trade, the similarities in how two countries — and communities — experience their histories, and how his article could serve as a bridge between African-Americans and Jews in a time of increasing tension between them. 

Smith spoke to JTA from his parents’ home in his native New Orleans. 

This interview was edited for length and clarity.

Jewish Telegraphic Agency: Your book is about the ways America succeeds and fails to come to terms with slavery, and your article is about the ways Germany is, in your phrase, “constructing public memory.” I was struck by someone who warned you, “Don’t go to Auschwitz.” What were they saying? 

Clint Smith: It was Frederick Brenner, a Jewish man and a remarkable photographer who has photographed the Jewish Diaspora across the world for the past several decades, who said that, because people are standing [at Dachau] and they’re taking selfies, and it’s like “me in front of the crematorium” and “me in front of the barracks.” That was deeply unsettling to him, especially as someone whose family was largely killed in the Holocaust. 

I don’t want to be reductive about it and say that you don’t want people to go to these spaces and take pictures. I think it’s all about the sort of disposition and sensibilities one brings to a space. If someone went to the Whitney Plantation in Louisiana, I don’t necessarily want them doing puckered-lip selfies in front of a slave cabin. I can understand why people wouldn’t want those places engaged with in that way, but you do want tourists to come, right? I mean, before the pandemic, 900,000 people visited Dachau every year, and part of what brings people to Dachau is seeing and taking a picture of the crematorium, taking a picture of themselves on this land in that space where history happened, and posting it online. And maybe that serves as a catalyst for somebody else to make that journey for themselves.

You did go to Dachau, which you call a “memorial to the evil that once transpired there.”

I am a huge believer in putting your body in the place where history happened. I stood in many places that carry the history of violence: plantations, execution chambers, death row. But I’ve never experienced the feeling in my body that I felt when I stood in the gas chamber at Dachau. And you just see the way that this space was constructed, with the sort of intentional, mechanized slaughter that it was meant to enact on people. The industrialized nature of it was something unlike anything I’d ever experienced before and it made me feel so much more proximate to that history in ways that I don’t think I would have ever experienced otherwise. 

Physically standing in a concentration camp and physically standing and putting my body in the gas chamber fundamentally changed my understanding of the emotional texture and the human and psychological implications of it. Because when you’re in those spaces you’re able to more fully imagine what it might have been like to be in that space. And then you can imagine these people, these families, these women, these children who were marched into camps throughout Europe. You can never fully imagine the fear, that sense of desperation that one would have felt, but in some ways, it’s the closest we can get to it if you are someone who did not have family who lived through or survived the Holocaust. It provided me with a radical sense of empathy. And that’s why I took the trip in the first place.

A tourist takes a selfie inside the Memorial to the Murdered Jews Of Europe in Berlin, Sept. 25, 2019. (Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

By contrast, there are the memorials that are not historical sites, but either sculptural or architectural, like Berlin’s Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe, nearly five acres of concrete slabs. What do you think makes an effective memorial that isn’t necessarily the historical place itself, but a specifically memorial project? 

Well, for example, the big one in Berlin. It’s just so enormous. The scale and scope of it was unlike anything I’d ever seen before. I tried to imagine what an American analog would be like. What if in the middle of downtown Manhattan there was a 200,000-square-foot memorial, with thousands of stone columns, dedicated to commemorating the lives of indigenous people who were killed in the early Americas? Or a 200,000-square-foot memorial in the middle of downtown D.C., not far from the White House, to the lives of enslaved people?

With that said, what I found really valuable were the people I spoke to, who had very different relationships to that space. Some thought of that memorial as something that was so meaningful because of its size and because of its scope, and because it was a massive state-sanctioned project. And then there were others who thought that it was too abstract, that it was too passive, even in its name, right, the “Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe,” which sounds as if something happened to people without naming the people who enacted the harm and who committed the crime. Those are the sort of nuances and complexities that I wanted to spend more time with, and found really valuable because, in the same way, descendants of enslaved people here in the United States have many different conceptions of what the iconography of slavery should look like or what repair and reparations to slavery should be made.

You write about the “stumbling stones” or “Stolpersteine”: Those are the small brass plaques placed in the streets, inscribed with the names of Holocaust victims and placed in front of their last known residence. The stones are exactly the opposite scale of the Berlin memorial.

Right. I think that is the memorial that I was most struck by: the largest decentralized memorial in the world, with 90,000 stones across 30 different European countries. I remember the moment I was walking down the street looking for landmarks and saw my first Stolpersteine, and I only saw it because at that moment the clouds moved and the sun shone off the brass stone. You see the name, the birth date, the deportation date, the death date, the place where the person was killed. You walk past another home, you see seven; you walk past another home, you see 12. You begin to imagine entire lives based on the names and information that exist on these stones. It creates this profound sense of intimacy, this profound sense of closeness to the history and it’s so human, because it’s individual people and individual names.

One of the most valuable things about the stumbling stone project, I think, is all the work that precedes it. It’s the school students who are doing research to find out about the lives of the people who were taken from the home across the street from their school. It’s the people in the apartment complex, who come together and decide that they’re going to figure out who were the Jewish families who lived in that apartment complex before them. And sometimes it’s really remarkable, granular details about people’s lives: what their favorite food was, what their favorite flavor of ice cream was, what the child liked. 

Artist Gunter Demnig lays “stumbling stones” that memorialize persecuted or murdered Jews on the streets of Frankfurt. (Boris Roessler/picture alliance via Getty Images)

As Gunter Demnig, the originator of the project, says, 6 million people is a huge abstraction, and now it becomes about one man, one woman, one child, and [people] realize that it truly was not that long ago. There are so many survivors of the Holocaust who are still with us. Gunter Demnig, his father fought for the German army. He represents this generation of people who are engaging in a sort of contrition for the acts of their parents and their grandparents. 

You ask in the piece what it would look like for a similar project to be created in the United States as a memorial to enslaved people.

I’m from New Orleans, and the descendant of enslaved people in New Orleans, which was at one point the busiest slave market in the country. And as Barbara Steiner, a Jewish historian, said to me in Germany, entire streets [of New Orleans] would be covered in brass stones! That was such a striking moment for me. That helped me more fully realize the profound lack of markers and iconography and documentation that we have to enslaved people in our landscape here in the United States relative to that of Germany.

Why are physical monuments important? I have sometimes wondered why we spend so much money on the infrastructure of memory — statues, museums, memorials — and if that money could be better used for living memorials, like scholarships for the descendants of victims, say, or programs that study or archive evidence of genocide. Why is it important to see a statue or a museum or even a plaque?

First off, museums and statues and memorials and monuments are by no means a panacea. It is not the case that you put up some memorials or you lay down some Stolpersteine and suddenly antisemitism is gone. Obviously, Germany is a case study and is experiencing its own rise in antisemitism. And that’s something that’s deeply unsettling, and is not going to singularly be solved by memorials and monuments. 

With that said, I think there is something to be said to regularly encounter physical markers and manifestations of the violence that has been enacted and crimes that have been done in your name, or to the people that you are the descendant of. I try to imagine Germany without any of these memorials and I think it would just be so much easier for antisemitism to become far more pervasive. Because when your landscape is ornamented by things that are outlining the history that happened there, it is much more difficult to deny its significance, it is much more difficult to deny that it happened, it is much more difficult not to have it shape the way you think about public policy. I do believe that if we had these sorts of markers in the United States, it wouldn’t solve the racial wealth gap, it wouldn’t solve racism, it wouldn’t solve discrimination. It wouldn’t eradicate white nationalism or white supremacy. But I do think it would play some role in recalibrating and reshaping our collective public consciousness, our collective sense of history in ways that would not be insignificant. 

And to your point, my hope is that those things are never mutually exclusive. It’s a conversation that’s happening here in the United States with regard to how different institutions are accounting for their relationship to slavery. Universities are coming up with reports, presentations, panels and conferences that outline their relationship to the history of slavery, especially since the murder of George Floyd [in 2020]. Activists and descendants have pushed them to not just put out a report, or put up a plaque or make a monument. It’s also about, well, what are you going to do for the descendants of those people? Harvard, where I went to grad school, put $100 million aside specifically for those sorts of interventions. Places like Georgetown have made it so that people who were the descendants of those who are enslaved have specific opportunities to come to the school without paying. And people of good faith can disagree over whether those initiatives are commensurate with or enough to atone for that past, and I think the answer is almost inevitably no.

Certainly people on what we like to think of as the wrong side of history understood the importance of physical monuments in creating memory.

The origin story of my own book was that I watched the monuments come down in 2017, in my hometown in New Orleans, of Jefferson Davis, Robert E. Lee. I was thinking about what it meant that I grew up in a majority Black city, and there were more homages to enslavers than there were to enslaved people. What does it mean that to get to school I had to go down Robert E. Lee Boulevard? That to get to the grocery store, I had to go down Jefferson Davis Parkway? That my middle school was named after a leader of the Confederacy? And that my parents still live on a street today named after someone who owned 115 enslaved people? The names and iconography are reflective of the stories that people tell and those stories shaped the narratives that communities carry. And those narratives shape public policy and public policy is what shapes the material conditions of people’s lives.

One thing about Germany is that its national project of memory and repentance has been accompanied by a vast reparations program — for Israel, Jewish survivors, their families and programs to propagate Jewish culture. I wonder if you think Germany could have moved ahead without reparations? And can America ever fully grapple with the legacy of slavery without its own reparations?

The short answer is no. America cannot fully move forward from its past without reparations. The important thing is not to be limited and reductive in the way that we conceive of what reparations are or should look like. In some ways, I’m as interested if not more interested in what specific cities and states are doing in order to account for those histories and those crimes. For example, in Evanston, Illinois, they created a specific program to give reparations to Black families who experienced housing segregation, in a certain period of time, given how prevalent redlining was in and around Chicago in the mid-20th century. I know in Asheville, North Carolina, there’s a similar program that’s thinking about how to meaningfully engage in repair to the descendants of communities that were harmed from some of the policies that existed there. This is not to say that those programs themselves are perfect. But I think we sometimes talk about it so much on a federal level, that we forget the local opportunities that exist.

West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer signs the reparations agreement between his country and Israel, Sept. 10, 1952. (United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, courtesy of Benjamin Ferencz, from “Reckonings”)

Many people who were redlined or experienced housing covenants — all the sort of insidious manifestations of wealth extraction that were part of Jim Crow — are still alive today. So sometimes it’s not even a question of what you have to give the descendants. Sometimes it’s like, what do you give the actual people who are still here? 

That’s an important distinction you make in your article, about the difference between grappling with the past in Germany and the United States. In Germany, there are so few Jews, while in the U.S. we see the living evidence of slavery, not the evidence of absence.

That’s perhaps the greatest difference that allows for both a landscape of memory to be created in Germany, and also allows for Germany to pay reparations in ways that the United States is reluctant to do: Jewish people in Germany represent less than one quarter of one percent of the population of Germany. One of the folks I spoke to told me that Jewish people in Germany are a historical abstraction. Because there’s so few Jewish people left, because of the slaughter of the Holocaust. I think about the reparations that were given to Japanese Americans who were held in incarceration camps during World War II. They got $20,000 checks, which is not commensurate with what it means to be held in a prison camp for multiple years, and cannot totally atone for that. But part of the reason that can be enacted is that there’s a limited amount of people. There are 40 million black people in this country. So the economic implications of reparations are something fundamentally different here in the United States. 

So let me ask you if there’s anything else you wanted to mention that we haven’t talked about.

I want to name specifically for your readers that I’m not and would never intend to conflate slavery and the Holocaust. They are qualitatively different historical phenomena that have their own specific complexities and should be understood on their own terms. With that said, I do think it can be helpful to put the two in conversation with one another, specifically in the profound ways that these two monumental periods of world history have shaped the modern world and how they are remembered in fundamentally different ways. 

And there are similarities as well, which you write about.

I did find so many parallels. The Jewish people I spent time with in Germany explained that some of the manifestations of racism and anti-Blackness in the United States are not so different from the sort of manifestations of antisemitism that exist in Germany, especially as it relates to public memory. When I was at the museum devoted to the Wannsee conference, the executive director, Deborah Hartmann, told me that she and Deidre Berger [the chair of the executive board of the Jewish Digital Cultural Recovery Project Foundation] were talking about how Jewish people did not always have a seat at the table when these monuments and memorials were being built. Jewish people were not allowed to participate beyond a certain extent, because many Germans felt that Jewish people were not objective. Jewish historians couldn’t be taken seriously because they were too close to the history.

That just echoes so much of what Black scholars and historians have been told about their ability, or the lack thereof, to study the history of Black life. The godfather of African-American scholarship, W.E.B. Du Bois, was told by white scholars that he couldn’t be taken seriously because he was too close to the history of slavery.

Meanwhile, Deborah Hartmann talked about how so many of the historians and scholars who played a role in shaping the landscape of memory in Germany were themselves “close to the history,” including former members of the Hitler Youth.

Somebody sent me a message that really meant a lot to me this past week, basically saying that my essay is an exercise in “solidarity via remembrance” — in a moment where, unfortunately, there have been a lot of public manifestations of ideas and antisemitic remarks that might threaten to rupture a relationship between Black and Jewish people. Obviously, we didn’t time it this way: I worked on this piece for a year. But it’s my hope that as someone who is a Black American, who is the descendant of enslaved people, who is not himself Jewish — that my respectful, empathic, curious, journey reflects the long history of solidarity that has existed across Black and Jewish communities and that that I hope we never lose sight of.


The post A Black writer explores how Germany remembers its ‘unthinkable’ past appeared first on Jewish Telegraphic Agency.

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Iran Rounds Up Thousands in Mass Arrest Campaign After Crushing Unrest

A billboard with a picture of Iran’s flag, on a building in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 24, 2026. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Plainclothes Iranian security forces have rounded up thousands of people in a campaign of mass arrests and intimidation to deter further protests after crushing the bloodiest unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, sources told Reuters.

Modest protests that began last month in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over economic hardship unleashed long-suppressed wider grievances and swiftly escalated into the gravest existential threat to Iran‘s Shi’ite theocracy in nearly five decades, with protesters commonly calling for ruling clerics to step down.

Authorities cut internet access and stifled the unrest with overwhelming force that killed thousands, according to rights groups. Tehran blames “armed terrorists” linked to Israel and the United States for the violence.

Within days, plainclothes security forces launched a campaign of widespread arrests accompanied by an intensified street presence based around checkpoints, according to five activists who spoke on condition of anonymity from inside Iran.

They said detainees had been placed in secret lockups.

“They are arresting everyone,” one of the activists said. “No one knows where they are being taken or where they are being held. With these arrests and threats, they are trying to inject fear into society.”

Similar accounts were given to Reuters by lawyers, medics, witnesses, and two Iranian officials speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid retribution by security services.

They said the roundups appeared aimed at preventing any serious revival of protests by spreading fear just as the clerical establishment faces rising external pressure.

Uncertainty over the possibility of military action against the Islamic Republic has lingered since US President Donald Trump said last week that an “armada” was heading toward the country but that he hoped he would not have to use it.

On Wednesday, however, he doubled down on his threats by demanding Iran negotiate curbs on its nuclear program, warning that any future US attack would be “far worse” than one day of airstrikes last June on three nuclear sites.

Multiple Western and Middle Eastern sources told Reuters this week that Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, although Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical establishment.

ROUNDED UP FOR PROTESTS IN PREVIOUS YEARS

One of the activists said security forces were detaining not only people accused of involvement in the latest unrest but also those arrested during protests in previous years, “even if they had not participated this time, plus members of their families.”

The latest death toll compiled by the US-based HRANA rights group stands at 6,373 – 5,993 protesters, 214 security personnel, 113 under-18s, and 53 bystanders. Arrests stand at 42,486, according to HRANA, which is investigating an additional nearly 20,000 possible deaths.

Several media outlets have reported the death toll could exceed 30,000 citing sources inside Iran.

Judiciary officials have warned that “those committing sabotage, burning public property, and involved in armed clashes with security forces” could face death sentences.

The UN human rights office told Reuters on Thursday it understood that the number of detainees was very high and they were at risk of torture and unfair trials. Mai Soto, the UN Special Rapporteur on Iran, said the thousands of detainees included doctors and health-care workers.

UNOFFICIAL DETENTION CENTERS, THOUSANDS OF ARRESTS

Two Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed to Reuters that thousands of arrests had been carried out in the past few days.

They said many detainees were being held in unofficial detention sites, “including warehouses and other improvised locations,” and the judiciary was acting quickly to process cases.

Iranian authorities declined to comment publicly on the number of arrests, or say where the detainees were being held. Authorities said on Jan. 21 that 3,117 were killed in the unrest, including 2,427 civilians and security personnel.

Amnesty International reported on Jan. 23 that “sweeping arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, bans on gatherings, and attacks to silence families of victims mark the suffocating militarization imposed in Iran by the Islamic Republic’s authorities in the aftermath of protest massacres.”

Arrests are continuing across the sprawling country, from small towns to the capital, witnesses and activists said.

“They arrested my brother and my cousin a few days ago,” said a resident of northwestern Iran who asked not to be named.

“They stormed our home in plainclothes, searched the entire house, and took all the laptops and mobile phones. They warned us that if we make this public, they will arrest all of us.”

FAMILIES FRANTIC OVER MISSING YOUNG PEOPLE

More than 60% of Iran‘s 92 million people are under the age of 30. Although the latest protests were snuffed out, clerical rulers will eventually risk more demonstrations if the heavy repression persists, according to rights activists.

Three Iranian lawyers told Reuters that dozens of families had approached them in recent days seeking help for relatives who had been detained.

“Many families are coming to us asking for legal assistance for their detained children,” one lawyer said. “Some of those arrested are under 18 – boys and girls.”

Human rights groups have long said Iranian security organs use informal detention sites during periods of serious unrest, holding detainees without access to lawyers or family members for extended periods.

Five doctors told Reuters that protesters wounded during protests had been removed from hospitals by security forces and dozens of doctors had been summoned by authorities or warned against helping injured demonstrators.

Prison authorities denied holding wounded protesters.

Families of five detainees said the lack of information about their whereabouts itself had become a form of punishment.

“We don’t know where they are, whether they are still alive, or when we’ll see them,” said an Iranian man whose daughter was rounded up. “They took my child as if they were arresting a terrorist.”

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Israeli Parliament Gives Initial Approval for 2026 Budget, Averting Snap Election for Now

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a session of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem, Jan. 26, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

Israel‘s parliament gave initial approval to the 2026 state budget draft on Thursday, handing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a temporary political reprieve by averting the immediate prospect of an early election.

Lawmakers voted 62-55 in favor of the spending plan, which totals 662 billion shekels ($214.43 billion), excluding debt servicing, and sets a budget deficit ceiling of 3.9% of gross domestic product this year.

The budget, as well as an accompanying economic plan, still faces a difficult path to final approval amid deepening polarization within Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Under Israeli law, the budget must be passed by the end of March or parliament would automatically dissolve, triggering a snap election.

Tensions inside the coalition have simmered for more than two years, fueled by disagreements over the war in Gaza, the ceasefire reached in October that halted the fighting, and demands by ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties for legislation exempting religious seminary students from mandatory military service.

Some ultra-Orthodox lawmakers did not vote in favor of the budget since a military conscription bill has not yet been approved.

Netanyahu’s other right-wing coalition partners – as well as opposition parties – argue that ultra-Orthodox men must share the burden of military service, particularly after two years of fighting in Gaza and Lebanon in which nearly 1,000 Israeli soldiers were killed.

($1 = 3.0872 shekels)

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Trump Weighs Iran Strikes to Inspire Renewed Protests, Sources Say

US President Donald Trump delivers a speech on energy and the economy, in Clive, Iowa, US, Jan. 27, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

US President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers.

Two US sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.

To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said. Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path, one of the sources and a US official said.

The second US source said the options being discussed by Trump‘s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach US allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programs. Iran has been unwilling to negotiate restrictions on the missiles, which it sees as its only deterrence against Israel, the first source said.

The arrival of a US aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump‘s capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran‘s crackdown.

The US Navy sent an additional warship to the Middle East, a US official told Reuters on Thursday. The official, who was speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the USS Delbert D. Black had entered the region in the past 48 hours. This brings the number of destroyers in the Middle East to six, along with the aircraft carrier and three other littoral combat ships. The additional warship in the region was first reported by CBS News.

Reuters spoke to more than a dozen people for this account of the high-stakes deliberations over Washington’s next moves regarding Iran. Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats, and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, US strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran‘s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”

The sources in this story requested anonymity to talk about sensitive matters. Iran‘s foreign office, the US Department of Defense, and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office declined to comment.

Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future US attack would be “far worse” than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” sailing to Iran.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said. The US official said the current weakness of the regime encouraged Trump to apply pressure and seek a deal on denuclearization.

Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if pushed, Iran‘s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.

Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s already-weakened network of armed proxies in the Middle East.

LIMITS OF AIR POWER

A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States said Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.

“If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he told Reuters, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would “have a new leader that will replace him.”

Only a combination of external pressure and an organized domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.

The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.

Multiple US intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.

The Western source said they believed Trump‘s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the regime,” an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where US intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government. During a US Senate hearing about Venezuela on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “the hope” was for a similar transition if Khamenei were to fall, although he recognized that the situation in Iran was far more complex. The US official said it was unclear who would take over if Khamenei were out of power.

Israel’s military intelligence chief, General Shlomi Binder, held talks on Iran with senior officials at the Pentagon, the CIA, and the White House on Tuesday and Wednesday, a source familiar with the matter said. Axios reported that he shared intelligence on possible Iranian targets.

Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called “seditionists.”

U.S.-based rights group HRANA has put the unrest-related death toll at 5,937, including 214 security personnel, while official figures put the death toll at 3,117. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the numbers.

Several media outlets have reported the death toll could exceed 30,000 citing sources inside Iran.

KHAMENEI RETAINS CONTROL BUT LESS VISIBLE

At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances, and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.

Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran‘s security network and big parts of the economy.

However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession, and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran‘s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.

In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.

But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hardline rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.

Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken the IRGC, the official said.

Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favor containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran‘s borders.

A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy, and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.

The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.

REGIONAL BLOWBACK

Gulf states – long‑time US allies and hosts to major American bases – fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.

“The United States may pull the trigger,” one of the Arab sources said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman was in Washington this week for meetings with US officials focused on Iran, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

A batch of 1,000 drones was received by the various branches of the Iranian army, semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday, amid growing tensions.

“In accordance with the threats ahead, the army maintains and enhances its strategic advantages for rapid combat and imposing a crushing response against any aggressor,” the army‘s Commander-in-Chief Amir Hatami said.

Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the US deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponize its enriched uranium.

The most likely outcome is a “grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession – that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.

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