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‘3,000 Rockets a Day, Hospitals Overwhelmed’: What Israel-Hezbollah War Would Look Like

Flames seen at the side of a road, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, close to the Israel border with Lebanon, in northern Israel, June 4, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ayal Margolin

A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah inched closer this week, as Hassan Nasrallah — the Shiite Lebanese terror group’s leader — threatened both Israel and Cyprus.

In a televised address on Wednesday, Nasrallah said, “There will be no place safe from our missiles and our drones should a larger conflagration erupt,” and that Hezbollah had “a bank of targets” it would aim for in precision strikes. He also urged the Cypriot government against opening airports and bases on the island for the “enemy” to operate from, although Israel is not known to have ever done this.

Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire since the October 7 Hamas attack, after the terrorist group fired rockets in support of Hamas, forcing tens of thousands of Israeli civilians to evacuate their homes in northern communities close to the border. Israeli military chiefs now think an all-out war is a real possibility.

In a statement, the military said “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field.”

But what would a war with Hezbollah look like? How would Israelis be affected by the war? And who would win?

“3,000 Rockets Launched Daily; Air Defenses Overwhelmed and Mass Casualties”

A three-year study by Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism, in which more than 100 senior military and government officials took part, forecasted devastation in Israel in the event of war.

The report, which was reportedly presented to Israeli government officials before the Hamas attack last year — and was seen by the Israeli publication Calcalist — predicted Hezbollah would fire between 2,500 to 3,000 rockets each day at Israel. These would range from accurate rockets to precision long-range missiles and would be interspersed with intense barrages aimed at specific targets for maximum destruction, such as densely populated civilian areas or military targets.

Iranian terror proxies in the region, including pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq; Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza; and Yemen’s Houthis, would also join the conflict. It is thought that a multi-pronged assault could destroy Israel’s air defense systems, specifically by using munitions and drones to target Iron Dome batteries, as well as cause thousands of civilian and military casualties.

There has also been speculation that Iran itself would join, attacking Israel, as it did on April 13.

Due to Hezbollah’s vast arsenal of rockets, Israel’s Iron Dome interceptors and David’s Sling missiles would run out just a few days into the conflict, leaving most of the country entirely exposed and unprotected.

It is thought that the daily rocket fire would last for weeks.

The group’s precision missiles would target Israeli military bases to hinder counterattacks and critical infrastructure such as power plants, water facilities, and electricity stations.

 

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The critical seaports of Haifa and Ashdod would buckle, and international trade would be severely impacted, while flights would be canceled and airspace closed. Israel’s health system would likely be overwhelmed by the sheer number of casualties, as well as by hospitals themselves becoming targets of suicide drone attacks.

Meanwhile, an assault would also be launched in the digital realm, with Israeli communications infrastructure and government websites subjected to cyberattacks designed to wreak further damage on the country’s economy. The group would try to capitalize on the chaos to send hundreds of Radwan commandos to infiltrate the border with the goal of seizing Israeli towns and villages, forcing Israel to launch ground operations within its own territory.

There could be widespread panic among the Israeli public amid extensive damage and large casualty numbers, as well as difficulty accessing essentials like food and medicine. Hezbollah would seek to provoke a psychological campaign of warfare against Israelis by flooding social media networks with disinformation, aiming to sow distrust in official government spokespeople.

Like Hamas, Hezbollah would encourage Palestinians to carry out attacks and pile pressure on Israeli police struggling to maintain control. The war would end after around three weeks as the sheer scale of damage done to both sides is too much to sustain, leading to a kind of stalemate.

The cost to Lebanon would be enormous. The 2006 Lebanon war was catastrophic for Lebanon’s economy, causing $3.5 billion in damage to infrastructure. A new war would be even worse for a country already facing a deep economic crisis.

However, Hezbollah is unlikely to be destroyed in a war, in part due to its deep integration into Lebanese society, including holding positions in the Lebanese government and controlling key institutions. Additionally, a war with Israel would likely serve as a propaganda victory for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s confrontation with Israel would help it drum up support in the Arab world, potentially leaving it in a strengthened domestic position.

War with Hezbollah would have a much wider regional impact, including galvanizing extremist actors in the region and ushering in further instability in the Middle East. We’ll have to wait and see what happens.

The author is a contributor to HonestReporting, a Jerusalem-based media watchdog with a focus on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias — where a version of this article first appeared.

The post ‘3,000 Rockets a Day, Hospitals Overwhelmed’: What Israel-Hezbollah War Would Look Like first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Robert Kraft’s Super Bowl LIX Commercial to Help Combat Hatred Features Snoop Dogg and Tom Brady

Snoop Dogg and Tom Brady in the new Super Bowl commercial from FCAS titled “No Reason to Hate.” Photo: Screenshot

The Foundation to Combat Antisemitism (FCAS), founded by New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, will air its second ever Super Bowl commercial on Sunday and the 30-second spot this year features rapper Snoop Dogg and former Patriots legend Tom Brady.

The ad is titled “No Reason to Hate” and will air during Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. In the clip, released on Monday, Brady and Snoop Dogg face each other while make spiteful digs and giving examples of the, often stupid, reasons why you might hate someone.

“I hate you because we’re from different neighborhoods,” Snoop Dogg says. “I hate you because you look different,” Brady replies.

“I hate you because I don’t understand you … because you talk different … Because you’re just different,” Snoop Dogg says. Brady responds by saying, “I hate you because people I know hate you … Because I need someone to blame … Because you act different.”

At the end of their face-off, a line appears on screen that says: “The reasons for hate are as stupid as they sound.” Snoop Dogg then concludes by saying, “Man, I hate that things are so bad, we have to do a commercial about it.” Brady replies, “Me, too.” The duo then walk out of frame and the final message on the screen says, “Stand up to all hate.”

Some Jewish activists criticized the commercial on social media for not mentioning antisemitism or Jews at all. Snoop Dogg’s involvement in the ad also received backlash in light of a hateful image he posted on Instagram in 2020 that compared America to the Nazis.

Kraft released a statement about FCAS’ decision to bring Snoop Dogg and Brady together for the commercial.

“Their shared commitment to this cause speaks to the strength of and amplifies the foundation’s continued message: no matter where we come from, there is no place for hate in our world,” Kraft explained. “Together, with their leadership, we’re reminding everyone that the fight against hate is a fight we can all win.”

“The Foundation to Combat Antisemitism is doing incredible work, and I’m honored to stand with them in the fight against hate,” Brady added. “This Super Bowl, football is on my mind, but so is something even bigger – building a world where hate has no place. The ‘No Reason to Hate’ campaign isn’t just a message; it’s a movement. I’m proud to be a part of it, and I hope you’ll join us.”

As part of its “No Reason to Hate” campaign, FCAS, which launched in 2019, will additionally host its first Unity Summit at the Xavier University of New Orleans, Louisiana, on Friday. As part of the foundation’s Unity Dinner series, and in partnership with United Negro College Fund (UNCF) and Hillel International, the event will bring together more than 100 Black and Jewish college students who want to combat hate.

FCAS debuted its first Super Bowl commercial last year and directly addressed hatred targeting the Jewish community. It starred Clarence B. Jones, a prominent civil rights leader who helped draft Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s iconic speech “I Have a Dream.” Last year’s commercial ended with the tagline: “Stand up to Jewish hate.”



The post Robert Kraft’s Super Bowl LIX Commercial to Help Combat Hatred Features Snoop Dogg and Tom Brady first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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US Imposes Sanctions on Individuals, Tankers Shipping Iranian Oil to China

US Department of Treasury headquarters in Washington, DC. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

The US Treasury said on Thursday it is imposing new sanctions on individuals and tankers helping to ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China.

The move comes after US President Donald Trump earlier this week vowed to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero as the US tries to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The Treasury said the oil was shipped on behalf of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff and its front company Sepehr Energy, which the US designated in late 2023. This sanctions target jurisdictions, including China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as several vessels.

Treasury said it imposed blocking sanctions on the Panama-flagged CH Billion tanker and the Hong Kong-flagged Star Forest tanker for their role in shipping Iranian oil to China.

The US said the tankers “onboarded” Iranian crude from storage in China as part of a scheme involving Iran’s military, which stands to profit from the sale of the oil.

The sanctions block access of the individuals and entities to any of their assets in the United States and prohibit US foreign assistance.

“We will use all tools at our disposal to hold the regime accountable for its destabilizing activities and pursuit of nuclear weapons that threaten the civilized world,” Tammy Bruce, a State Department spokesperson said about the sanctions.

The sanctions designated Iranian national Arash Lavian, which the US said helped support Sepehr.

The US also designated Marshal Ship Management Private Limited.

In addition, Young Folks International Trading Co and Limited and Lucky Ocean Shipping Limited were designated for operating in Iran’s petroleum sector.

The post US Imposes Sanctions on Individuals, Tankers Shipping Iranian Oil to China first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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The Future of Syria Is Uncertain; Here’s What Israel Should Be Doing (PART TWO)

Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, waits to welcome the senior Ukrainian delegation led by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, after the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 30, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi

Part One of this article appeared here.

Former UK Chief Rabbi Jonathan Sachs referred in one of his articles to the book Radical Uncertainty by British economists John Kay and Mervin King. The book makes a distinction between risk and uncertainty. Risk can be calculated, but uncertainty cannot. Therefore, in situations of uncertainty, the authors recommend focusing on understanding the situation. This should be accomplished not by calculating probabilities but by observing what is actually happening on the ground with eyes that are open to new perspectives and new threats.

This approach should apply to the current shake-up of the regional system in the Middle East.

The Turkish orientation towards the leadership of al-Julani, leader of the rebels, warrants great concern. Turkish President Erdogan has never hid his ambition to renew the Ottoman Empire. The prospect of an occupation of Damascus by Sunni Muslim forces has an exciting power that could reunify radical Islamic forces to the point of reestablishing an al-Qaeda state in Syria. The third purpose of the IDF’s operations in the region is to focus on these concerns.

Meanwhile, under Erdogan’s leadership, the Kurdish region east of the Euphrates River is under threat of a military attack meant to eliminate it. This will test the ability of the American administration to stand up for its Kurdish allies.

With the collapse of the state order built with the Sykes-Picot Agreements at the end of World War I, an opportunity has arisen to correct an injustice. The international community’s concern for the right to self-determination of minorities has focused over the past century mainly on the Palestinians — but some 30 million Kurds have been trapped for a century without any possibility of a state.

The United States, as a superpower, is facing an unprecedented challenge to its ability to influence emerging trends in the regional chaos that has arisen in Syria.

In all of Israel’s past wars, including the War of Independence, the end of the war was determined by agreements with countries with a recognized identity that existed before the war and continued to exist after it. Now, for the first time, the State of Israel is facing an unknown reality.

Israeli disillusionment in Syria

The collapse of the Assad regime and the trends emerging in Syria in recent weeks required the State of Israel to respond immediately, which entailed abandoning its longstanding security perception of the “villa in the jungle.” In addition to needing to defensively penetrate the expanses of the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, Israel had to assign a special strategic purpose to the effort to maintain Israeli control of the Syrian space in front of the border: to project Israeli military power onto the trends developing in Syria.

This expressed the understanding that if Israel were to take a passive position of simple observation in defending the Golan Heights border line without daring to go beyond the “walls of the villa,” it would not have the appropriate levers to create a position of influence and bargaining to secure Israeli security interests in the emerging system in Syria and Lebanon. Miraculously, the developments in Syria forced Israeli security policy to shatter the barriers of the “villa” perception that had bound it.

A controversy from the beginning

From the beginning of the Zionist enterprise, the Jewish community both openly and covertly struggled with the tension between the two trends — convergence to the borders of the “villa” or integration into the Arab space. This tension was also expressed architecturally. While the settlements of the first aliyah were built along a main axis, such as Kfar Tavor and Yavne’al, in a way that allowed the movement of Arabs and Jews through the colony, the settlements built in the third aliyah and onwards were built off the main road in the form of a closed camp. As a result, with the confrontation of events (especially those of 1936-39, and the activity of Yitzhak Sadeh and Orde Wingate’s field companies), a dispute arose over the question of exiting the fence into the space.

In her book The Sword of the Dove, Anita Shapira describes the way in which Wingate tried to lead his men into active defense activities outside the fence. Wingate’s approach provoked resistance among the kibbutzim of the Jezreel Valley, stemming from this question: where is the line along which it is clear to everyone that they are defending their existence? Is it the fence line or is it beyond it? This debate was not only conducted in the moral dimension. It began as an operational issue. Sadeh’s and Wingate’s concept of defense required engaging in friction in the space outside the fences of the settlements. This was the concept of the guards at the beginning of the formation of the Hebrew defense force. For them, free movement in the space outside the settlements was not only a necessity to fulfill the defense mission but an expression of their desire to integrate into the space in the cultural dimension as well.

Recognizing the need for active regional integration, the State of Israel, under Ben-Gurion’s leadership, turned to proactive activity in areas outside the country’s borders in its early years. While Israel was still under a regime of economic austerity, Israeli delegations operated in African countries in the fields of agriculture and security. In the 1960s, Israeli paratroopers assisted the Iraqi Kurds in fighting against the Iraqi army.

The essence of the perceptual gap

Between the approach that confines itself within the borders of the “villa” and the approach that requires active involvement in the space beyond the borders, there is a deep gap in the perception of reality. The aspiration for confinement is based on the assumption that a country’s security situation can be stabilized by creating a status quo of borders, with each country limiting itself to activity within those borders. Switzerland, for example, succeeded in maintaining a status quo that is perceived as final and permanent within European historical circumstances.

The second approach does not hold with the assumption of the ability to preserve one’s existence in a stable and final status quo. Human reality, certainly in terms of the system of ties between countries, is subject to change and unexpected upheaval. The strategic position of a country is examined in this approach not only by what it manages to stabilize within its sovereign territory, but also by the alliances it maintains with entities in the space and its ability to actively engage in spheres of influence that shape regional trends. This is how Turkey operates in Libya and the Horn of Africa and is the thinking behind its current moves to establish military bases in the heart of Syria. Egypt has recently been involved militarily in Somalia, and Qatar, through its financial capabilities, is operating both in the region and far across the ocean.

The Mossad and its agents have operated and continue to operate with distinction in both close and distant circles outside the State of Israel. However, an overt presence is also required. The trend of Israeli confinement within the borders of the “villa” — with its security and cultural implication — has been revealed as a failure. In this dimension as in others, the Israeli national security concept requires a fundamental update.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen is a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. He served in the IDF for 42 years. He commanded troops in battles with Egypt and Syria. He was formerly a corps commander and commander of the IDF Military Colleges. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.

The post The Future of Syria Is Uncertain; Here’s What Israel Should Be Doing (PART TWO) first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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