Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a joint statement to the media in Baghdad, Iraq, April 22, 2024. Photo: AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/Pool via REUTERS

JNS.org – After more than a year of bloody conflict in the Middle East sparked by the Hamas pogrom in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, it’s becoming clearer as to which of the multiple parties involved have registered net gains and which net losses.

Let’s start with the Palestinians. The enduring achievement of the Hamas rapists and murderers has been to thrust the Palestinian question back into the heart of the world’s consciousness. For at least 10 years prior, the civil war in Syria, the war against ISIS, the failure of the “Arab Spring” to introduce stable and lasting democracy in the region, and the normalization treaties between Israel and a cluster of highly conservative Arab monarchies displaced the Palestinians from their jealously guarded position as the region’s overarching, unresolved question.

Oct. 7 changed all that by turning the Palestinian issue into a domestic concern in a range of countries—a status that typically eludes the myriad other conflicts around the world. “Palestine” has been an issue in elections in Ireland, France, the United Kingdom and, of course, the United States. It has been an issue for law enforcement, as police departments in cities around the world have struggled to deal with mass demonstrations and campus encampments, too often resulting in police officers looking the other way as screaming mobs have openly supported terror organizations, recycled the crudest antisemitic tropes, engaged in vandalism and assault, and disrupted sporting and cultural events. And, let’s face it, the war in Gaza has given the lives of millions of restive, poorly informed people a sense of meaning and purpose as they face down the Zionist war machine they believe is at the root of the Palestinians’ travails—and therefore at the root of theirs as well.

Yet actual Palestinians, particularly Palestinians in Gaza, might question whether any of these outcomes were worth a year of bombardment that has wrecked their coastal enclave and placed them at the mercy of outside states when it comes to reconstruction and post-war governance. Hamas has been decimated, and it remains unclear who will rule Gaza going forward and how they will do so. The price of the aforementioned political victories for the Palestinians has been military disaster and long-term uncertainty.

For Israel, that effect has essentially been reversed. Militarily, thanks to the discipline and courage of the Israel Defense Forces, the Jewish state is in a much more commanding position than it was before Oct. 7 on both the Gaza and Lebanon fronts (meaning, its southern and northern borders). As well as delivering powerful blows against Hamas, Israel has fundamentally weakened Iran’s other proxy, Hezbollah, to the point that it cannot muster fighters to defend the tottering regime of Bashar Assad in Syria, as it did a decade ago.

Yet in political and diplomatic terms, the past 14 months have seen Israel’s global position significantly undermined by repeated accusations of “genocide.” Its prime minister and former defense minister cannot travel to much of the rest of the world, including most of the European Union, for fear that they will be arrested under the warrants issued last month by the International Criminal Court in The Hague. From literary festivals to soccer matches, Israelis are feeling the kind of opprobrium once reserved for apartheid South Africa, albeit with much deadlier violence involved. Relatedly, Jewish communities in the Diaspora are experiencing a wave of antisemitic intimidation unseen since the 1930s. The imminent arrival of a new administration in the White House may, as many hopefully expect, shift these fortunes, especially when it comes to the crucial issues of the plight of the remaining hostages in Gaza and the return of thousands of Israelis displaced from their homes in the north by Hezbollah’s attacks. Nothing, however, is guaranteed.

Dealing with the Iranian regime, whose machinations lie at the core of this conflict, will be a major focus of the next Trump administration’s foreign policy. Yet even before Donald Trump enters the Oval Office (again), Iran is already looking damaged and weaker now when compared with Oct. 7. While its missile attacks on Israel failed to dent either the IDF or the Israeli population’s resolve, Jerusalem’s responses have badly frayed Iran’s air defenses and highlighted the vulnerability of its nuclear program. As well as seeing its Hamas and Hezbollah proxies degraded, Iran is now watching as the Assad regime in Syria clings to survival. Iran still retains its proxies in Iraq and Yemen, but these, too, may also find themselves in the firing line with a new administration in Washington. “Although today’s Iran is confident that it can fight to defend itself, it wants peace,” wrote its former foreign minister in a frankly ludicrous article for Foreign Affairs. That sounds suspiciously like a plea to the regime’s adversaries to hold off because the reality is that the regime cannot defend itself from Israel—not to mention the Iranian people, growing swaths of whom truly loathe the Islamic Republic and are determined to get rid of it.

For two states in the region, the outlook is unfortunately rosier. One is Turkey, whose membership of the NATO Alliance remains undisturbed despite the increasingly unhinged attacks on Israel leveled by its autocratic president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and its open support of Hamas. Ironically, Israel’s punishing of Hezbollah has helped Erdoğan in Syria, where Turkey is backing anti-Assad forces in the north of the country, though don’t expect him to acknowledge that.

Secondly, there is Qatar, an emirate grounded in Sharia law, where a little more than 10% of the population enjoy full citizenship while the vast majority—mainly migrant workers toiling in slave-like conditions—live under a form of real apartheid. The Biden administration’s faith that Qatar—a financial and diplomatic backer of Hamas whose capital hosted the terror organization’s leaders—could act as an honest broker in negotiations to release the hostages was spectacularly misplaced, with more than a year dragging by since the one-and-only prisoner exchange that compelled Israel to release Palestinians convicted of terrorism and violence. Despite this dismal failure and its two-faced stance on terrorism, Qatar’s ruling family continues to be feted by international leaders, most recently in London, where the British Royal Family dutifully trooped to The Mall for a parade welcoming the visiting emir. For the foreseeable future, Qatar’s astonishing wealth, coupled with its financial hold over many of the world’s capitals, is a guarantee of immunity from criticism, let alone actual sanctions.

For Turkey and Qatar, then, net gains. For Iran and its Palestinian and Lebanese proxies, net losses. For Israel, the jury is out. The first year of Trump’s term in office will doubtless tell us more.

The post Winners and Losers in the Middle East: The Story So Far first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

UN peacekeeper (UNIFIL) vehicle drives in Bent Jbeil, after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, southern Lebanon, Nov. 27, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Aziz Taher

JNS.org – The U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has one job: to ensure that no armed groups, including Hezbollah terrorists, operate in a restricted area of Southern Lebanon. Not only did UNIFIL fail to do this job—it facilitated Hezbollah’s rearming of the region by ignoring them and failing to raise red flags.

Indeed, when Hezbollah began attacking Israel from this restricted territory in October 2023, UNIFIL did nothing to stop them—nor did its bosses at the United Nations—for 13 long months. This failure is rivaled in dishonor and damage only by the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).

Now, instead of being condemned for its despicable performance, UNIFIL has been assigned an integral role in the new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Its “new” job will be to coordinate and monitor Hezbollah’s compliance in vacating Southern Lebanon, plus help dismantle any unauthorized military infrastructure and ensure that only Lebanese security forces operate in designated zones.

Sound familiar? That’s exactly what UNIFIL has proved incapable of doing. Instead of disarming Hezbollah, UNIFIL allowed it to build a massive terrorist infrastructure in Lebanon’s south.

Scandalously, the media seldom report on UNIFIL’s failures, preferring instead to cover Israel’s “attacks” on UNIFIL installations or otherwise threatening or displacing “innocent” Lebanese villagers. As does Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah terrorists quarter their military operations in towns and cities, often in the shadow of UNIFIL bases. This true story, of course, doesn’t match the media’s narrative of Israel being the bad actor.

In fact, when the Israel Defense Forces entered Southern Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure—intending to ensure the safe return of 70,000 Israeli residents to their homes in Israel’s north—UNIFIL stood in the way, refusing to withdraw, despite pleas from Israeli leaders. Yet the media and U.N. members blamed Israel whenever UNIFIL sites or personnel were struck.

Given UNIFIL’s shameful failure to prevent Hezbollah from arming and occupying Southern Lebanon, plus UNIFIL’s renewed responsibility to rein in Hezbollah, last week’s ceasefire seems bound to collapse.

In short, UNIFIL is simply another multimillion-dollar boondoggle, like UNRWA, that needs dismantling … one more reason for a dramatic cut in U.N. funding by the United States.

Like other U.N. organizations, UNIFIL is well-financed and staffed but ineffective. Initially set up in 1978 to monitor Israel’s withdrawal from Southern Lebanon following an attack by the PLO, UNIFIL’s mandate was expanded following the 2006 Second Lebanon War, which Hezbollah began by invading Israel, killing eight soldiers and taking two hostages. Per U.N. Resolution 1701 in 2006, UNIFIL was to ensure that Southern Lebanon would be “an area free of any armed personnel, assets, and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and of UNIFIL.”

Today, UNIFIL has 10,000 soldiers and a budget of $550 million, of which the United States pays one-third. Many of its soldiers come from hostile Muslim countries that have no relations with Israel. Others come from China, Ireland and Spain, which practice anti-Israel policies—hardly forces motivated to protect Jews from Muslim terrorists.

UNIFIL allowed Hezbollah to arm itself to the teeth—amassing a huge arsenal of more than 200,000 rockets and missiles. The Iranian-backed terrorist group planned to use Southern Lebanon as a base from which to launch an Oct. 7-style attack on Israel. Hezbollah placed its armed positions within sight of UNIFIL observation posts, yet the U.N. peacekeepers did nothing to stop them. UNIFIL failed to investigate even one of the more than 3,000 Hezbollah arms depots and other military sites targeted by Israel since October 2023.

UNIFIL served at Hezbollah’s pleasure. The terrorist group prohibited UNIFIL from patrolling broad swaths of territory and routinely harassed, assaulted, and even killed the force’s personnel. In an interview with a Danish news site, a former, unnamed U.N. soldier said UNIFIL was “completely at Hezbollah’s mercy” and that their ability to report anything was extremely limited because Hezbollah terrorists would confiscate their devices if they attempted to collect evidence.

But UNIFIL is not only incompetent, it is also corrupt. Captured Hezbollah terrorists recently testified that their group paid UNIFIL operatives for their cooperation, including the use of their outposts and security cameras to observe Israel’s military movements.

Hezbollah uses UNIFIL as human shields. The IDF recounted multiple incidents when Hezbollah’s fire came from areas next to UNIFIL posts, including one that killed two IDF soldiers. Israeli forces also discovered Hezbollah tunnel entrances adjacent to UNIFIL posts.

Mainstream media won’t report these travesties. Indeed, an NPR article titled “What is the U.N. peacekeeping force stationed in Lebanon?” fails to mention Hezbollah’s bribery of UNIFIL or its use of peacekeepers as human shields.

Israel tried to protect UNIFIL, only to be condemned. Israel’s leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, implored UNIFIL to leave their positions for their own safety, but these appeals fell on deaf ears. It was also the IDF’s policy during the war always to warn UNIFIL whenever Israel operated in their vicinity so they had the chance to move out of harm’s way.

Instead of praising Israel, however, for trying to protect UNIFIL, world leaders condemned it. Italy and France, for example, denounced Israel for firing on UNIFIL positions, calling its actions outrageous.

Originally published by Facts and Logic About the Middle East (FLAME).

The post Reward UNIFIL’s Epic Failure and Corruption in Lebanon by Shutting it Down first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

Smoke billows near residential buildings in a picture taken from a drone in Aleppo, Syria, Dec. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano

JNS.org – Since Nov. 27, the Syrian civil war has seen a resurgence of hostilities that directly threatens the stability of President Bashar Assad’s regime, following an offensive launched by Sunni rebels from Idlib in northwestern Syria.

The renewed fighting has seen the rebels quickly take Aleppo and advance further south, and is being closely monitored by Israel. It is already drawing in Russia, which is conducting airstrikes on the Sunni forces, while unconfirmed reports of strikes by an unidentified air force targeted positions of Iran-backed militias in Deir Ezzor, northeastern Syria, an area used by Shi’ite militias to cross into Syria from Iraq.

At the forefront of the renewed offensive against Assad’s forces is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist organization led by the 43-year-old Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda in Syria and known as Jabhat al-Nusra before breaking ties with al-Qaeda, HTS has become the primary umbrella force challenging the Syrian government in the Idlib region.

Israel remains cautious about taking sides publicly, while preparing itself for a range of scenarios.

Lt. Col. (res.) Marco Moreno, a former senior officer in the IDF’s Human Intelligence Unit 504 who was responsible for the Lebanon and Syria arenas, and the founder and commander of “Operation Good Neighbor” from 2012 to 2016, which provided humanitarian aid to Syrians during the civil war, directly linked current events in that country with the hammer blows sustained by Hezbollah and the Shi’ite axis in neighboring Lebanon.

“The rebels have been waiting with plans for a long time, and once they saw that we weakened and harmed Hezbollah in Lebanon—and in Syria—they took advantage of the opportunity to attack,” Moreno told JNS on Sunday.

Moreno noted that the direct impact on Israel at this stage is minor, since the fighting is not occurring close to the border in southern Syria.

‘Syria’s Philadelphi Corridor’

He also noted that the Assad regime has played a highly destructive and dangerous role for Israel’s security over the years, supplying highly advanced, strategic weaponry to Hezbollah.

“The Assad regime allowed Syria to be the Philadelphi Corridor [the Gazan area bordering Sinai used to smuggle weapons] on steroids,” said Moreno.

Many of the weapons Hezbollah used against Israel in the recent war came from Syria, he said. “When I say strategic weaponry was smuggled from Syria, I mean strategic, without going into further details,” he added.

The rebels, he said, are an assortment of groups including extremist jihadists. “As someone who ran ‘Operation Good Neighbor’ in the Golan Heights, I know the rebels well—the good and the less good. I think that when the rebellion reaches southern Syria, the Golan Heights, it could create a security challenge on the border. The Israel Defense Forces will have the needed skills, acquired from the past, to deal with this event,” Moreno said.

Israel will likely be able to set up arrangements, not all of them necessarily public, with rebel groups, he assessed.

“Once Syria is removed from the Shi’ite axis, the Iranian axis will be severely harmed. The next step will be the Iranian axis itself,” he said. “This is something that will project on all of the arenas, including Hamas and Hezbollah.”

Regarding concerns that sites belonging to the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, which, in cooperation with Iran develops precise missiles, and according to reports, chemical weapons, could fall into the hands of jihadists, Moreno said, “Israeli intelligence agencies would have to monitor this, and if needed, act in this scenario.”

He added that if rebels destroy sites used to supply Hezbollah with weapons, this could also benefit Israel.

Israeli intelligence superiority is well established in the northern arena, he argued.

Addressing the Turkish role, Moreno said that Ankara appears to be motivated in backing a number of rebel groups by the goal of moving millions of Sunni refugees who have found haven in Turkey back to Syrian soil, and perhaps to initiate this maneuver before the second Trump administration is sworn in. Turkey might also sense an opportunity to push the Kurds back from the Turkish border, he added.

“We’re in the Middle East and I personally believe that this chaos is good, it creates opportunities – if one knows how to exploit them,” said Moreno.

Essentially al-Qaeda or ISIS

Brig. Gen. (res.) Dedy Simhi, former chief of staff of the IDF Home Front Command, told JNS on Sunday that the complete collapse of Assad’s regime would “not good for Israel because the alternative might be that these Sunni jihadists, essentially al-Qaeda or ISIS in some form, could rise.”

He added, “I would prefer Assad weakened and bleeding in power rather than Syria completely falling apart. … Israel must sit on the sidelines for now, avoid intervention, and be prepared for anything that might happen.”

Israel’s interest, he argued, is not for Syria to turn into Yemen or Iraq, or Libya. Simhi added that the harm caused to Hezbollah and to Hamas, as well as the destruction of the entire Iranian air defense array on Oct. 26 by the Israeli Air Force, and the Israeli strikes on Yemen, have all weakened the Shi’ite axis.

This led the Sunni rebels to decide to take advantage of the weakness of their enemy, that same Shi’ite axis, and to attack.

“There are other considerations here too,” he added. “Turkey is supporting the rebels—they want to return the four million Syrian refugees to northern Syria.”

Simhi echoed Moreno’s assessment that Israel will be capable of detecting scenarios of advanced weaponry falling into jihadi hands and acting in time if necessary.

Iran and Russia embarrassed

According to a report by Mako on Sunday, “In Iran and Russia, the two biggest patrons of Assad since the middle of the previous decade, it is evident that they were surprised and very embarrassed by the collapse of the Syrian army forces. Direct Iranian and Russian assets were severely damaged in the recent battles, and now there is a frantic effort to try and regain control.”

Iranian interests have suffered notably. “On Wednesday night, Iranian General Qomars Furuhashi, a very senior official in the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, was eliminated on the outskirts of Aleppo,” Mako reported.

The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies provided an in-depth analysis of HTS in August 2023. The organization has changed significantly since its al-Qaeda-affiliated days, the report argued. “HTS’s current political-religious ideology frames the group as strictly Syria-focused and religiously moderate,” the center reported.

Despite efforts to rebrand, concerns persist about HTS’s authoritarian control and threats. “HTS has shown limited tolerance for political dissent, reacting swiftly and harshly to any protests or civilian complaints,” the analysis highlighted. The degree to which the group has the capacity to govern and the nature of its interactions with transnational terrorist groups remain points of contention.

The post Chaos in Syria ‘Creates Opportunities’ Against Iranian Axis first appeared on Algemeiner.com.