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Iran’s Dominos Are Falling; Why Are We Pulling Back?
Members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) march during a parade to commemorate the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), in Tehran on Sep. 22, 2010. Photo: Reuters/Morteza Nikoubazl/File photo
Iran’s rapidly weakening deck of cards in Syria and across the region provides an opportunity for the United States to push the momentum against Iran and its proxies. However, at this critical juncture, the United States is drawing down its regional troop presence, limiting its ability to effectively counter Iran’s regional aggression.
The Biden administration announced on September 27 that the current US-led military mission in Iraq will come to an end by September 2025, followed by US troops operating in some fashion in Iraq through 2026. Despite American officials’ claim that this move is not a withdrawal, it certainly bears all the hallmarks of one.
Key US facilities at Al-Asad Air Base and Baghdad International Airport will be shuttered within months. After 2026, few, if any, US troops would remain in the strategically vital country, at a time of growing regional escalation, impeding our ability to impact events on the ground in both Iraq and Syria.
The ramifications of departing Iraq will be significant — in Iraq and beyond.
A minimized US presence in Iraq would increase Iranian influence there, strengthen and embolden Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, and limit the United States’ ability to sustain forces in Syria. This would pave the way for Iran to accelerate its transfer of weapons, cash, and terror operatives to its proxies in Syria and Lebanon via Iraq. Not only might this save Bashar al-Asad in Syria, but it could also pave the way for Hezbollah — currently on its back heels — to be rearmed and revitalized.
In Iraq, the US presence has had a cooling effect on Iran’s ring of fire proxy strategy. By comparison, Iran has provided an abundance of sophisticated ballistic missiles to its Houthi proxies in Yemen, enabling them to wreak havoc on global shipping in the Red Sea. Buffeted by America’s presence in Iraq, though, Iran has provided only short-range rockets and drones to its Iraq-based terror proxies and, fearing reprisals, has privately urged caution to avoid provoking Washington.
Without this security buffer, Iran’s ability to expand its footprint in Iraq will only grow — which is likely why some Iraqi officials reportedly oppose a US withdrawal.
A reduced US force posture in Iraq would also jeopardize America’s presence in Syria — providing a major boon to Tehran. An Iraq draw-down would impede the ability to sustain the nearly 1,000 US service members in the northeast of Syria, since they depend on access via Iraq for basic logistics such as food and fuel. American troops in Iraq also serve to retaliate against attacks on US forces in Syria.
A draw-down in Iraq would, therefore, likely lead to a withdrawal from Syria as well — creating further vacuums for Iran to exploit. At least one US base in eastern Syria is reportedly near a key Iranian-Hezbollah smuggling axis across the Syria-Iraq border. Another US base, Al-Tanf, blocks what would otherwise be the shortest and fastest land smuggling route from Iran to Iraq, then Syria and Lebanon.
With a greater footprint in Iraq and freer access to Syria, Iran could beat back the current threat to Assad’s hold on power, and expand its weapons shipments to Hezbollah, as it has already sought to do in recent days. A Hezbollah rejuvenated by newfound arms pipelines risks scaling back the considerable Israeli successes against the terror group, enabling it to again threaten Israel and other US partners.
Regardless of the merits of a troop scale-down in Iraq, timing matters. The message such a move would send to both friends and allies, amid a staggering 207 Iran-backed attacks on US personnel in the region in the last year alone, would itself be counterproductive to America’s interests. Withdrawing from Iraq at a time of spiraling regional escalation risks sending a message to Iran that imposing sufficient costs on the United States will result in concessions.
This signal would only ring louder in Tehran, given that Iran’s proxy network used Iraq as a staging ground to launch the deadliest attack on American soldiers in the region in years. In January, an Iraq-based Iranian proxy used an Iranian-made drone to kill three US servicemembers and injure more than 30 troops stationed in Jordan along the Iraqi border.
Withdrawal from Iraq at a time of intensifying regional conflict, particularly in neighboring Syria, would also send a disheartening message to our allies and partners. Without American leadership and assets, the nearly 80 countries participating in the US-led counter-ISIL mission in Iraq would be significantly hamstrung, just as ISIL is showing signs of resurgence. In addition, Iranian proxies in Iraq have also directly attacked Israel over 40 times this year — an escalating threat to a key US partner, which demands more, not less, attention and engagement.
Past US withdrawals attest to the problems that come with timeline-based, rather than conditions-based, withdrawals.
As part of the 2008 US-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement, the United States committed to withdraw its troops from Iraq by the end of 2011. In the following months, insurgent violence escalated across the country, and within three years, the rise of the Islamic State led to US troops returning to Iraq.
In Afghanistan, against the advice of a bipartisan Congressionally-appointed panel and top US military leaders, the administration pursued a timeline-based withdrawal, which led to the Taliban seizing control of the country in short order. As then-head of US Central Command, General Frank McKenzie, USMC (ret.), said in a recent Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar, the US decision to pursue a timeline-based withdrawal was at the heart of the botched pull-out.
Scaling down America’s presence in Iraq at the current moment will telegraph to Iran and other adversaries worldwide that the United States can be pushed out when attacked, inviting more attempts.
Lieutenant General Richard Mills, USMC (ret.) served as Commander of the First Marine Division, Deputy Commandant for Combat Development and Integration, and Commander of NATO’s Regional Command Southwest in Afghanistan. He was a participant in the 2019 Generals and Admirals Program with the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
Yoni Tobin is a policy analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
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Iranian Media Claims Obtaining ‘Sensitive’ Israeli Intelligence Materials
FILE PHOTO: The atomic symbol and the Iranian flag are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
i24 News – Iranian and Iran-affiliated media claimed on Saturday that the Islamic Republic had obtained a trove of “strategic and sensitive” Israeli intelligence materials related to Israel’s nuclear facilities and defense plans.
“Iran’s intelligence apparatus has obtained a vast quantity of strategic and sensitive information and documents belonging to the Zionist regime,” Iran’s state broadcaster said, referring to Israel in the manner accepted in those Muslim or Arab states that don’t recognize its legitimacy. The statement was also relayed by the Lebanese site Al-Mayadeen, affiliated with the Iran-backed jihadists of Hezbollah.
The reports did not include any details on the documents or how Iran had obtained them.
The intelligence reportedly included “thousands of documents related to that regime’s nuclear plans and facilities,” it added.
According to the reports, “the data haul was extracted during a covert operation and included a vast volume of materials including documents, images, and videos.”
The report comes amid high tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, over which it is in talks with the US administration of President Donald Trump.
Iranian-Israeli tensions reached an all-time high since the October 7 massacre and the subsequent Gaza war, including Iranian rocket fire on Israel and Israeli aerial raids in Iran that devastated much of the regime’s air defenses.
Israel, which regards the prospect of the antisemitic mullah regime obtaining a nuclear weapon as an existential threat, has indicated it could resort to a military strike against Iran’s installations should talks fail to curb uranium enrichment.
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Israel Retrieves Body of Thai Hostage from Gaza
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz looks on, amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, in Jerusalem, Nov. 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
The Israeli military has retrieved the body of a Thai hostage who had been held in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday.
Nattapong Pinta’s body was held by a Palestinian terrorist group called the Mujahedeen Brigades, and was recovered from the area of Rafah in southern Gaza, Katz said. His family in Thailand has been notified.
Pinta, an agricultural worker, was abducted from Kibbutz Nir Oz, a small Israeli community near the Gaza border where a quarter of the population was killed or taken hostage during the Hamas attack that triggered the devastating war in Gaza.
Israel’s military said Pinta had been abducted alive and killed by his captors, who had also killed and taken to Gaza the bodies of two more Israeli-American hostages that were retrieved earlier this week.
There was no immediate comment from the Mujahedeen Brigades, who have previously denied killing their captives, or from Hamas. The Israeli military said the Brigades were still holding the body of another foreign national. Only 20 of the 55 remaining hostages are believed to still be alive.
The Mujahedeen Brigades also held and killed Israeli hostage Shiri Bibas and her two young sons, according to Israeli authorities. Their bodies were returned during a two-month ceasefire, which collapsed in March after the two sides could not agree on terms for extending it to a second phase.
Israel has since expanded its offensive across the Gaza Strip as US, Qatari and Egyptian-led efforts to secure another ceasefire have faltered.
US-BACKED AID GROUP HALTS DISTRIBUTIONS
The United Nations has warned that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli blockade of the enclave, with the rate of young children suffering from acute malnutrition nearly tripling.
Aid distribution was halted on Friday after the US-and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said overcrowding had made it unsafe to continue operations. It was unclear whether aid had resumed on Saturday.
The GHF began distributing food packages in Gaza at the end of May, overseeing a new model of aid distribution which the United Nations says is neither impartial nor neutral. It says it has provided around 9 million meals so far.
The Israeli military said on Saturday that 350 trucks of humanitarian aid belonging to U.N. and other international relief groups were transferred this week via the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza.
The war erupted after Hamas-led terrorists took 251 hostages and killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, in the October 7, 2023 attack, Israel’s single deadliest day.
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US Mulls Giving Millions to Controversial Gaza Aid Foundation, Sources Say
Palestinians carry aid supplies which they received from the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in the central Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ramadan Abed/File Photo
The State Department is weighing giving $500 million to the new foundation providing aid to war-shattered Gaza, according to two knowledgeable sources and two former US officials, a move that would involve the US more deeply in a controversial aid effort that has been beset by violence and chaos.
The sources and former US officials, all of whom requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said that money for Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) would come from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is being folded into the US State Department.
The plan has met resistance from some US officials concerned with the deadly shootings of Palestinians near aid distribution sites and the competence of the GHF, the two sources said.
The GHF, which has been fiercely criticized by humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations, for an alleged lack of neutrality, began distributing aid last week amid warnings that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli aid blockade, which was lifted on May 19 when limited deliveries were allowed to resume.
The foundation has seen senior personnel quit and had to pause handouts twice this week after crowds overwhelmed its distribution hubs.
The State Department and GHF did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Reuters has been unable to establish who is currently funding the GHF operations, which began in Gaza last week. The GHF uses private US security and logistics companies to transport aid into Gaza for distribution at so-called secure distribution sites.
On Thursday, Reuters reported that a Chicago-based private equity firm, McNally Capital, has an “economic interest” in the for-profit US contractor overseeing the logistics and security of GHF’s aid distribution hubs in the enclave.
While US President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel say they don’t finance the GHF operation, both have been pressing the United Nations and international aid groups to work with it.
The US and Israel argue that aid distributed by a long-established U.N. aid network was diverted to Hamas. Hamas has denied that.
USAID has been all but dismantled. Some 80 percent of its programs have been canceled and its staff face termination as part of President Donald Trump’s drive to align US foreign policy with his “America First” agenda.
One source with knowledge of the matter and one former senior official said the proposal to give the $500 million to GHF has been championed by acting deputy USAID Administrator Ken Jackson, who has helped oversee the agency’s dismemberment.
The source said that Israel requested the funds to underwrite GHF’s operations for 180 days.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The two sources said that some US officials have concerns with the plan because of the overcrowding that has affected the aid distribution hubs run by GHF’s contractor, and violence nearby.
Those officials also want well-established non-governmental organizations experienced in running aid operations in Gaza and elsewhere to be involved in the operation if the State Department approves the funds for GHF, a position that Israel likely will oppose, the sources said.
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