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Is There Hope for a Democratic Iran?

A police motorcycle burns during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini in Tehran. Photo: Reuters/West Asia News Agency

In today’s Iran, a country teetering on the brink of the abyss and nearing total destruction, the sorrowful and fragmented society is desperately crying out for movement, cheer, and hope. The once vibrant nation now finds itself engulfed in despair, anxiety, protest, and anger, effectively trapped in a stagnant cesspool from which escape seems an insurmountable challenge.

The root cause of this dire situation is a despotic religious government, which, through its rigid and wretched governance, has devastated the entire country, leaving its people in a state of hopeless entrapment.

The religious octopus’ facade has cracked, revealing deep rifts between the detested and corrupt divine government and Iranian society.

Reflecting on the events since 1979, particularly after the decade of Ayatollah Khomeini’s tyranny that saw Ayatollah Khamenei succeed him and ascend to absolute power without the people’s consent or vote, it’s evident that Iranian society has repeatedly risen against its oppressors. Nearly 18 times, the people have mobilized in protest against religious despotism and swamp-like situations, only to be met with brutal repression, resulting in countless deaths and injuries. Each failed uprising has left the society more fragmented, intimidated by the regime’s overwhelming force, and ultimately finding itself in despair.

This cycle of protest and repression has been exacerbated by the regime’s crackdown on any semblance of dissent, employing executions, imprisonments, and fines to instill fear among the populace. The aim is clear: to solidify the prison that is Iran today. Despite this, there is a simmering unrest beneath — a clear indication that the current situation is untenable.

My previous article for The Algemeiner,Does America Have a Plan Once Iran’s Supreme Leader Dies?,” raises a crucial question about the future of Iran and the international response to its impending political vacuum. The impending death of Ali Khamenei and the question of succession could potentially trigger an “internal” transformation, offering a glimmer of hope for change. However, those within the regime’s inner circle are likely to seek to maintain their grip on power, sidelining public opinion and democratic aspirations in favor of military and security governance. The impending power struggle and internal rifts following Ali Khamenei’s death, and the ensuing succession crisis, are critical factors to consider

The religious government, with its extensive control over society, represents a significant barrier to Iran’s progress. The question then becomes: what will happen to Iranian society, especially the disillusioned young, non-religious generation, when this barrier finally collapses? The road towards democracy and the post-Islamic Republic era is fraught with challenges, including the enduring legacy of the 1979 upheaval and the resistance from those who cling to the past.

Programs encouraging society towards democracy and transitioning towards a post-Islamic Republic era may better start from this point, but a thousand other obstacles remain, including the remnants of participants in the 1979 upheaval who do not want the new generation to move past 1979 and Khomeinism.

Iran’s transition to democracy requires time, patience, and the emergence of dedicated, patriotic leaders capable of guiding the nation through its countless obstacles. These leaders must confront not only the remnants of the regime, but also secessionist threats, opportunistic revolutionaries, and forces of division. The transformation of a society accustomed to tyranny and fragmentation into one governed by democratic principles cannot happen overnight.

The notion that Iranians will seamlessly transition to a democratic system post-regime collapse is overly optimistic. The opposition, marked by its own issues of greed and disunity, seems ill-prepared for the future.

In the transition towards a stable and democratic Iran, the nation requires patriotic, firm, and compassionate leaders to navigate through the challenges posed by remnants of the oppressive regime, secessionist threats, and divisive forces. These leaders must guide Iran from the chaos of its current state towards genuine democracy and freedom, overcoming the naivety that a smooth transition will occur immediately, and addressing the deep-seated issues and expectations of a society on the brink of catastrophe.

Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA. He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). Erfan is a Jewish Kurd of Iran, and he is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD

The post Is There Hope for a Democratic Iran? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Israel Receives Shipment of Heavy Bombs Cleared by Trump

US President Donald Trump looks on as he signs an executive order in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, US, Jan. 31, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria

Israel has received a shipment of heavy MK-84 bombs from the United States, after US President Donald Trump lifted a block imposed on the export of the munitions by the administration of predecessor Joe Biden, the defense ministry said on Sunday.

The MK-84 is an unguided 2,000 pound bomb, which can rip through thick concrete and metal, creating a wide blast radius.

The Biden administration declined to clear them for export to Israel out of concern about the impact on densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip.

The Biden administration sent thousands of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel after the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian Hamas terrorists from Gaza but later held up one of the shipments. The hold was lifted by Trump last month.

“The munitions shipment that arrived in Israel tonight, released by the Trump Administration, represents a significant asset for the Air Force and the IDF and serves as further evidence of the strong alliance between Israel and the United States,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said late on Saturday.

The shipment arrived after days of concern about whether a fragile ceasefire in Gaza agreed last month would hold, after both sides accused each other of violating the terms of the deal to halt fighting to allow the exchange of hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners and detainees in Israeli jails.

Washington has announced assistance for Israel worth billions of dollars since the war began.

The post Israel Receives Shipment of Heavy Bombs Cleared by Trump first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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US Mideast Envoy Says Phase Two Gaza Talks to Continue This Week

US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy-designate Steve Witkoff gives a speech at the inaugural parade inside Capital One Arena on the inauguration day of Trump’s second presidential term, in Washington, DC, Jan. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria

US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday that talks on phase two of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Palestinian terrorists Hamas would continue this week “at a location to be determined” to figure out how to reach a successful conclusion.

He told Fox News that he had “very productive and constructive” calls on Sunday with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egypt’s director of intelligence.

Witkoff said they spoke about “the sequencing of phase two, setting forth positions on both sides, so we can understand… where we are today, and then continuing talks this week at a location to be determined so that we can figure out how we get to the end of phase two successfully.”

The post US Mideast Envoy Says Phase Two Gaza Talks to Continue This Week first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Arab States to Reveal 5-Year Plan to Rebuild Gaza: No Hamas or Relocation

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attends the Arab summit in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, May 31, 2019. Photo: REUTERS/Hamad l Mohammed/File Photo.

i24 NewsArab countries will unveil their plan for the reconstruction of Gaza on February 27 in Cairo. This initiative, developed by the Palestinians and handed over to the Egyptians for implementation, will be presented to the leaders of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The plan provides for reconstruction over three to five years, without the displacement of the Palestinian population and without Hamas control. The funding, estimated at several hundred million dollars, will come from Gulf countries. The work will be carried out by Egyptian companies, representing a significant source of income for Egypt, which is strongly opposed to any migration of Palestinians out of Gaza. The workforce will consist mainly of local Palestinians.

“The goal is to marginalize Hamas so that it understands that it has lost control of Gaza, and to completely eliminate the terrorist organization’s grip on the population and the territory within 5 years from the start of reconstruction,” a source involved in the plan said.

An independent “Palestinian administration,” separate from the Palestinian Authority but relying on it, will oversee the reconstruction. This power structure is designed to get the approval of Israel and the United States, who refuse direct management by the Palestinian Authority.

Arab countries fear a resurgence of fighting by Israel, which could, in their view, favor US President Donald Trump’s plan to move Palestinians to neighboring countries. The former US president said he wanted to see Jordan, Egypt, and other Arab countries welcome more displaced people from Gaza, so that the war-torn area can be “cleaned up.”

According to analyzed satellite images, approximately 65% of the buildings in Gaza have been destroyed during the war. Experts estimate that reconstruction could take more than a decade and cost several hundred billion dollars.

The post Arab States to Reveal 5-Year Plan to Rebuild Gaza: No Hamas or Relocation first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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