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Israel’s Hostage Deal Is a Tragic and Historic Mistake
Orthodox Jewish men stand near a tank, ahead of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as seen from the Israeli side of the border with Gaza, Jan. 16, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
The Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal is a massive and crippling defeat for Israel. There is no other way to frame it.
After 15 months of fighting, the best deal Israel could secure was releasing 57 Palestinian criminals and murderers for every Israeli hostage.
Judging from a partial list of those being released, it seems very likely that far more than 98 Israelis will die as a result of this deal.
It is also clear that Israel has failed in its war aims to eradicate Hamas from Gaza and replace it with a new government. The war didn’t establish a deterrent to future terrorism; in fact, this hostage deal will likely *increase* the risk of terrorism, especially hostage-taking.
As Palestinian Media Watch has pointed out, the seeds of the October 7 massacre were planted in 2011, when Israel exchanged 1,027 Palestinian terrorists and murderers for one living Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.
The terrorists released in 2011 went on to kill or aid in the murder of more than a thousand Israelis, and planned the October 7 massacre itself. (Yahya Sinwar was one of those released in 2011; similarly, many terrorist leaders and masterminds are being released this time).
The Gilad Shalit deal taught the Palestinian people one critical lesson: kidnapping Israelis works.
Now, once again, Palestinians are seeing the fruits of their labors with the absurd release of 1,900 Palestinian terrorists and prisoners for 33 Israelis (who aren’t even all alive).
Of course, we all want to see the 98 Israeli hostages come home — but the definition of insanity is to repeat the same policy and expect a different result; yet, that’s exactly what Israel has done.
It seems mind-boggling that Israel could not extract a better terrorist-to-hostage ratio than 57:1 after 15 months of fighting in Gaza.
Even a 5-to-1 ratio would have seemed reasonable. Yet Hamas got 11 times that, which suggests that — contrary to the claims of the Israeli government — Hamas’ capabilities have not been degraded. If Hamas had been truly weakened, Israel could have secured a much better deal.
Between future kidnapping attempts — and acts of terrorism that will be committed by the thousands of murderers and terrorists being released — it’s virtually guaranteed that far more than 98 Israelis will die in the future because of this deal. (And remember, at least 34 of those Israeli hostages are already dead).
Israel’s ethos of bringing all its people home is a beautiful one; but beauty isn’t always the answer in the face of a barbaric, unrelenting, and sadistic enemy that is determined to murder every Jew in Israel.
Perhaps one could argue that Israel owes these 98 people a special duty, since the country failed them spectacularly on October 7. But doesn’t the Israeli government owe the guarantee of life and safety to nine million people in Israel?
Israel’s government had the obligation to choose the outcome that saved the most lives. But years from now, it will become very clear that this deal took more lives than it saved.
So many innocent children, women, and men will be lost — but it seems less tragic, because we can’t see their faces yet.
If Israel really wanted to bring those hostages home at any cost, it should have prosecuted the war in a completely different way (to achieve a better hostage deal or an actual victory) — and it should be treating Palestinian terrorists and murderers in a completely different way than we are now.
Some have suggested that Phase 1 of the deal is just a ploy to get some hostages back — and that once it’s completed, Israel will continue its war in Gaza apace. That seems unlikely given the exhaustion of Israel’s military, the international pressure that will be mounted against it, and various other factors. And even if that does happen — we still will have released hundreds of murderers and terrorist masterminds; Israeli soldiers will be at much greater risk than they were before; and it’s hard to believe Israel can accomplish what it hasn’t in 15 months absent a severe change of strategy, or more troops and resources.
Others have blamed this hostage deal on the United States — yet Prime Minister Netanyahu showed that he was able to resist pressure from the Biden administration at almost every turn. Either Trump is not the loyal friend of Israel he claims to be, or Netanyahu chose not to expend his political capital to fight for a better outcome. If nothing else, the deal sheds light on Netanyahu’s weakness, and Trump’s interest in being a “dealmaker” rather than the loyal advocate of Israel that many had hoped for.
Overall, this deal signals one thing: Israel’s weakness, both geostrategically, and among its political leadership.
More terror will result from this deal — and we can only hope that it’s not worse than October 7, 2023.
We must also hope that Israel finally finds competent leadership that avoids the extremes of the far-right and far-left, but acts with common sense — and the best interest of all nine million Israeli citizens — as its guiding policy.
The author is a political commentator and political analyst.
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Iran Moves to Restore Ties With Bahrain, Egypt Amid Rising Middle East Tensions
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi attends a press conference following a meeting with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Russia, April 18, 2025. Photo: Tatyana Makeyeva/Pool via REUTERS
Iran has begun efforts to restore diplomatic relations with Bahrain and Egypt, signaling a potential shift in regional alliances as tensions escalate across the Middle East.
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Iran has officially begun the process of restoring diplomatic ties with Bahrain and Egypt after years of strained relations.
Since Iran normalized relations with Saudi Arabia in 2023, Araghchi said Tehran has made several requests to renew ties with Bahrain, with ongoing efforts expected to soon yield positive results.
In 2016, Bahrain severed diplomatic ties with Iran, following Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut relations after an attack on its embassy in Tehran, which was sparked by Riyadh’s execution of a prominent Shia Muslim cleric.
In 2023, Tehran and Riyadh reached an agreement in Beijing to restore diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies and diplomatic missions.
Since then, the Islamic Republic has taken further steps to strengthen its relationship with Bahrain. Last year, Araghchi met with Bahrain’s King, Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa, in the country’s capital to discuss bilateral ties and the latest regional developments.
Bahrain normalized relations with Israel, which Iranian leaders regularly say they seek to destroy, in 2020 as part of the US-brokered Abraham Accords.
As for Egypt, the country severed diplomatic relations with Tehran in 1980 following Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution and Egypt’s recognition of Israel.
Araghchi said ties between the two countries have strengthened significantly, with regular high-level meetings and continuous dialogue.
Iran’s expanding relationship with Egypt comes at a time of increased tension between Cairo and Jerusalem, amid Israeli accusations that Egypt has violated their peace agreement.
Israeli defense officials have previously expressed growing concern over Cairo’s military buildup and armed presence in the Sinai Peninsula.
These concerns come amid escalating tensions between Israel and Egypt since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, particularly over the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border, where Cairo has demanded Jerusalem withdraw its forces.
While details about Egypt’s military buildup remain unclear, “satellite images have shown the movement of tanks and battalions that exceed the limits set by the Camp David Accords,” Mariam Wahba, research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told The Algemeiner.
Under the 1979 peace treaty, Egypt can request permission from Israel to deploy more than the 47 battalions allowed. However, some estimates suggest that there are currently camps for 180 battalions.
“The Camp David Accords have long been a pillar of peace and stability in the Middle East,” Wahba explained. “A breakdown of the agreement would have serious implications, not just for Israel and Egypt but for the broader region. It could embolden actors like Iran and its proxies to exploit tensions and could lead to increased militarization along Israel’s southern border.”
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EU to Review Agreement With Israel Over Gaza Concerns, Kallas Says
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas attends a press conference with Moldova’s President Maia Sandu following their meeting in Chisinau, Moldova, April 24, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Vladislav Culiomza
The European Union will review a pact governing its political and economic ties with Israel due to the “catastrophic” situation in Gaza, EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday after a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers.
International pressure on Israel has mounted in recent days amid complaints about the lack of humanitarian aid reaching Gaza and as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government launched a new military offensive against the Hamas terrorist group in the enclave.
Kallas said a “strong majority” of the ministers meeting in Brussels favored such a review of the agreement with Israel, known as an association agreement, in light of events in Gaza.
Diplomats said 17 of 27 EU members backed the review, which will focus on whether Israel is complying with a human rights clause in the agreement, and was proposed by Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp.
“The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The aid that Israel has allowed in is of course welcomed, but it’s a drop in the ocean. Aid must flow immediately, without obstruction and at scale, because this is what is needed,” Kallas told reporters.
There was no immediate comment from Israel on the EU decision. Israeli officials have said their operations in Gaza are necessary to destroy Hamas, the Palestinian group responsible for the Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. Hamas also kidnapped several hostages that Israel is trying to free from captivity in Gaza.
Under the pact, which came into force in 2000, the EU and Israel agreed that their relationship “shall be based on respect for human rights and democratic principles, which guides their internal and international policy.”
In a letter proposing a review, Veldkamp raised concerns about Israeli policies “exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.”
He also cited “statements by Israeli cabinet members about a permanent presence that alludes to a reoccupation of (parts of) the Gaza Strip, Syria and Lebanon” and a “further worsening of the situation in the West Bank.”
On Tuesday, Dutch minister Veldkamp called the review “a very important and powerful signal,” echoing sentiments of officials from France and Ireland.
But others did not back a review. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky suggested the bloc could hold a meeting with Israel under the association agreement to raise concerns.
Kallas said EU sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank had been prepared but have so far been blocked by one member state. Diplomats said that country was Hungary.
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Syrian Leadership Approved Return of Executed Spy Eli Cohen’s Belongings to Israel, Sources Say
Nadia, widow of Israeli spy Eli Cohen, looks at photographs depicting her late husband during an interview with Reuters in Herzliya, Israel, Oct. 6, 2019. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Syria’s leadership approved the handover of the belongings of long-dead spy Eli Cohen to Israel in a bid to ease Israeli hostility and show goodwill to US President Donald Trump, three sources told Reuters.
Israel announced its recovery of the trove of documents, photographs, and personal possessions relating to Cohen on Sunday, saying its spy agency Mossad had worked with an unnamed foreign intelligence agency to secure the material.
However, a Syrian security source, an adviser to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and a person familiar with backchannel talks between the countries said the archive of material was in fact offered to Israel as an indirect gesture by Sharaa as he seeks to cool tensions and build Trump’s confidence.
Cohen, who was hanged in 1965 in a downtown Damascus square after infiltrating Syria’s political elite, is still regarded as a hero in Israel and Mossad’s most celebrated spy for uncovering military secrets that aided its lightning victory in the 1967 Middle East war.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Cohen on Sunday as a legend and “the greatest intelligence agent in the annals of the state.”
While Israel has long sought to recover his body for reburial at home, the return of his archive held for 60 years by Syrian intelligence was hailed by Mossad as “an achievement of the highest moral order.”
Israel has not publicly revealed how the archive came into its possession, saying only that it was the result of “a covert and complex Mossad operation, in cooperation with an allied foreign intelligence service.”
Netanyahu’s office, Syrian officials, and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Syria’s role in Israel‘s recovery of the Cohen archive.
COHEN DOSSIER
After rebels led by Sharaa suddenly ousted President Bashar al-Assad in December, ending his family’s 54-year-long rule, they found the Cohen dossier in a state security building, according to the Syrian security source.
Sharaa and his foreign advisers quickly decided to use the material as leverage, the source added.
The Syrian security source said Sharaa had realized that the Cohen archive was important to the Israelis and that its return could amount to a significant diplomatic gesture.
Ending Israeli attacks on Syria and improving relations with the United States and other Western countries are vital for Sharaa as he seeks to revive his shattered country after 14 years of civil war.
Israel regards Sharaa and his ex-insurgents, who once formed the al Qaeda faction in Syria, as unreconstructed jihadists. Israeli forces staged an incursion into border areas last year and have repeatedly bombed targets in support of Syria’s minority Druze sect.
This month, Reuters reported that the United Arab Emirates had set up a backchannel for talks between Israel and Syria that included efforts to build confidence between the sides.
There have also been other indirect channels for talks, according to two people familiar with the matter.
In the talks, Syria agreed to measures including returning the remains of Cohen as well as three Israeli soldiers killed while fighting Syrian forces in Lebanon in the early 1980s, a person familiar with those talks said. The body of one of those soldiers, Zvi Feldman, has been returned, Israel said last week.
The return of the Cohen archive came in the context of those confidence-building measures and was done with Sharaa’s direct approval, the person said.
Last week, Trump held a surprise meeting with Sharaa in Saudi Arabia where he urged him to normalize ties with Israel and announced that he would lift sanctions on Syria.
Syrian officials have said they want peace with all states in the region, and Sharaa confirmed this month that Damascus had carried out indirect talks with Israel via states it has ties with in order to calm the situation.
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