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Only Defeating Hamas Can Lead to an Israeli-Saudi Normalization Deal
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Saturday Oct. 14, 2023. Jacquelyn Martin/Pool via REUTERS
United States President Joe Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, visited Israel and Saudi Arabia in mid-May, offering a Saudi-Israeli normalization package that he says would lead to greater peace, stability, and security in the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the offer, because it demanded two major concessions from Jerusalem that Netanyahu is currently not prepared to make: an end to the war in Gaza and a path forward to a Palestinian state, despite not having a clear partner for peace.
Impatient for a win ahead of the November elections and frustrated by Israel’s rebuff, Biden may move forward with a deal with the Saudis that leaves Jerusalem behind.
The Biden administration is trying to recapture momentum towards a trilateral US-Saudi-Israel normalization deal that seemed imminent before the horrific Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the bloody war that ensued. Under the terms of last year’s proposal, each side had a lot to gain from a deal.
Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman — commonly known as MBS — was to get three primary asks: a defense pact with the US, a new, sophisticated US weapons package, including some offensive capabilities, and an independent civil nuclear program that the US would provide to include uranium enrichment on Saudi soil.
In addition, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia demanded (reportedly due in part to pressure from Washington) that Jerusalem publicly endorse a relatively amorphous “pathway” to a Palestinian state, with likely Israeli concessions on hot button issues like settlements.
Jerusalem would have gained normalization with Riyadh — one of Netanyahu’s preeminent goals after winning his election in 2022 — and the hope that a cascade of Arab and Muslim countries would follow the Kingdom. A further incentive for Jerusalem to normalize ties with the Kingdom is to bolster the regional coalition against Iran.
It is very much in US interests to strengthen the regional security architecture in the Middle East, especially as America reduces its military footprint in the region. Biden also wanted to expand peace in a troubled region, lock in a deal to sell expensive weapons to the oil-rich Saudis, and achieve a major diplomatic win in his first term as president.
According to Hamas, scuttling the normalization deal was one of the motivations for attacking Israel last fall. The deal was paused soon after Hamas attacked the Jewish State.
In recent months, the US has been pushing hard to get the trilateral deal back on track, but the horrific attacks of October 7 and the bloody war that ensued have — at least temporarily — changed the cost-benefit equation for both Bibi and MBS.
October 7 made the Israelis feel incredibly vulnerable. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis from Northern and Southern Israel — who were at the highest risk of deadly rocket fire — were evacuated from their homes. But all Israelis are vulnerable to attack.
Every Israeli lives within rocket range or sniper range of Iran-backed terrorists. For the past several months, Israelis have continued to experience the relentless rocket sirens, the trauma of the missing hostages, loved ones fighting on the front, and a precipitous spike in terrorism that has killed dozens in Israel since October 7. Given the very real threats, Israelis overwhelmingly support the war in Gaza and will likely continue to do so until Hamas is no longer able to terrorize the country.
MBS understands that Israel’s war on Hamas, which — despite the lowest civilian to terrorist casualty ratio in the history — has resulted in many civilian casualties in Gaza, and that this has galvanized the Arab street.
The images coming out of Gaza are harrowing, and the trauma felt by Palestinians and Arabs worldwide — including in Saudi Arabia — should not be underestimated. MBS knows that he cannot normalize ties while the war rages in Gaza, based on the pre-war terms of the deal.
Despite these new challenges, the administration is hungry for a diplomatic win. Biden’s polling numbers are weak, and November is shaping up to be a tough race. Biden’s national security advisor came to the region last month in an attempt to deliver a much-needed diplomatic victory to the president, as well as peace to the region.
But what did Sullivan offer Riyadh and Jerusalem?
After consultations with the Saudis, Sullivan is offering the Kingdom much of what was on the table last time — a defense pact, a civil nuclear program, and a weapons package — but MBS now wants a bigger gesture towards a “credible pathway” to Palestinian statehood — and is additionally requiring a “ceasefire in Gaza”; effectively an end to the war.
Sullivan came to Jerusalem with an addition to his offer for Netanyahu that he hoped would be a deal-sweetener — a limited defense treaty with the US in which the US would come to Israel’s defense if the Jewish State was facing an existential threat.
There has long been a conversation in Israel as to whether a defense treaty with the US would be a wise arrangement for Israel. One of the founding principles of Zionism and Israel’s national defense ethos is that Israel should be able to defend itself by itself. The Jewish people, who were stateless for millennia, would not put themselves at the mercy of another power.
A defense treaty may be enticing for some in Netanyahu’s close circles, but it is not compelling enough for Jerusalem to agree to the terms of the new deal; the disadvantages far outweigh the benefits. If Netanyahu accepts Sullvian’s offer, threatens to prematurely end the war in Gaza, and makes a premature overture toward Palestinian statehood — which there is no indication he wants to do — his leadership coalition would immediately collapse, and Israel would head to their sixth election in six years.
After the meeting, Netanyahu told Sullivan and the Israeli public that, while normalization with the Kingdom would be a considerable boon for Israel, the price tag was too high.
With the ticking clock of the presidential elections looming, new reports suggest that Biden may be planning to cinch the deal with Saudi Arabia and present it to American voters as a fait accompli.
But Israel cannot fight this existential war against Hamas according to the US election cycle. Despite the electoral pressures Biden is facing, Washington needs to exercise patience.
It is possible that the war in Gaza will look very different in a matter of months. Once the IDF can sufficiently declaw Hamas, bring back the hostages, and end the war with the correct guarantees and incentives from Washington, Jerusalem will likely be ready to begin working with partners to chart a new future for Gaza. At that point, a normalization deal like Sullivan’s will likely hold renewed appeal for Jerusalem, as Saudi Arabia and the moderate Arab regimes could play a critical role in the enclave’s future. Washington and Riyadh will find Jerusalem more flexible on issues that present stumbling blocks today.
To expedite Israel’s war in Gaza, and create potential for a greater regional peace, the US must remain steadfast in its support of the Jewish State.
Enia Krivine is the senior director of the Israel Program and the FDD National Security Network at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow her on X at @EKrivine. Brig. Gen. (Res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at the Technion. He served as the national security advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and as the acting head of the National Security Council.
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Israel Strikes Houthi Targets in Yemen
Smoke rises after Israeli strikes near Sanaa airport, in Sanaa, Yemen, Dec. 26, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
Israel struck multiple targets linked to the Iran-aligned Houthi terrorist group in Yemen on Thursday, including Sanaa International Airport, and Houthi media said three people were killed.
The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said he was about to board a plane at the airport when it came under attack. A crew member on the plane was injured, he said in a statement.
The Israeli military said that in addition to striking the airport, it also hit military infrastructure at the ports of Hodeidah, Salif, and Ras Kanatib on Yemen’s west coast. It also attacked the country’s Hezyaz and Ras Kanatib power stations.
Houthi-run Al Masirah TV said two people were killed in the strikes on the airport and one person was killed in the port hits, while 11 others were wounded in the attacks.
There was no comment from the Houthis, who have repeatedly fired drones and missiles towards Israel in what they describe as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said following the attacks that Israel will continue its mission until it is complete: “We are determined to sever this terror arm of Iran’s axis.”
The prime minister has been strengthened at home by the Israeli military’s campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon and by its destruction of most of the Syrian army’s strategic weapons.
The Israeli attacks on the airport, Hodeidah and on one power station, were also reported by Al Masirah TV.
Tedros said he had been in Yemen to negotiate the release of detained UN staff detainees and to assess the humanitarian situation in Yemen.
“As we were about to board our flight from Sanaa … the airport came under aerial bombardment. One of our plane’s crew members was injured,” he said in a statement.
“The air traffic control tower, the departure lounge — just a few meters from where we were — and the runway were damaged,” he said, adding that he and his colleagues were safe.
There was no immediate comment from Israel on the incident.
More than a year of Houthi attacks have disrupted international shipping routes, forcing firms to re-route to longer and more expensive journeys that have in turn stoked fears over global inflation.
The UN Security Council is due to meet on Monday over Houthi attacks against Israel, Israel‘s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said on Wednesday.
On Saturday, Israel‘s military failed to intercept a missile from Yemen that fell in the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area, injuring 14 people.
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Controversial Islamic Group CAIR Chides US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew for Denying Report of ‘Famine’ in Gaza
US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew. Photo: Alchetron.
The Council on American–Islamic Relations (CAIR) has condemned US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew for casting doubt on a new report claiming that famine has gripped northern Gaza.
The controversial Muslim advocacy group on Wednesday slammed Lew for his “callous dismissal” of the recent Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) report accusing Israel of inflicting famine on the Gaza Strip. The organization subsequently asserted that Israel had perpetrated an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza.
“Ambassador Lew’s callous dismissal of this shocking report by a US-backed agency exposing Israel’s campaign of forced starvation in Gaza reminds one of the old joke about a man who murdered his parents and then asked for mercy because he is now an ‘orphan,’” CAIR said in a statement.
“To reject a report on starvation in northern Gaza by appearing to boast about the fact that it has been successfully ethnically cleansed of its native population is just the latest example of Biden administration officials supporting, enabling, and excusing Israel’s clear and open campaign of genocide in Gaza,” the Washington, DC-based group continued.
On Monday, FEWS Net, a US-created provider of warning and analysis on food insecurity, released a report detailing that a famine had allegedly taken hold of northern Gaza. The report argued that 65,000-75,000 individuals remain stranded in the area without sufficient access to food.
“Israel’s near-total blockade of humanitarian and commercial food supplies to besieged areas of North Gaza Governorate” has resulted in mass starvation among scores of innocent civilians in the beleaguered enclave, the report stated.
Lew subsequently issued a statement denying the veracity of the FEWS Net report, slamming the organization for peddling “inaccurate” information and “causing confusion.”
“The report issued today on Gaza by FEWS NET relies on data that is outdated and inaccurate. We have worked closely with the Government of Israel and the UN to provide greater access to the North Governorate, and it is now apparent that the civilian population in that part of Gaza is in the range of 7,000-15,000, not 65,000-75,000 which is the basis of this report,” Lew wrote.
“At a time when inaccurate information is causing confusion and accusations, it is irresponsible to issue a report like this. We work day and night with the UN and our Israeli partners to meet humanitarian needs — which are great — and relying on inaccurate data is irresponsible,” Lew continued.
Following Lew’s repudiation, FEWS NET quietly removed the report on Wednesday, sparking outrage among supporters of the pro-Palestinian cause.
“We ask FEWS NET not to submit to the bullying of genocide supporters and to again make its report available to the public,” CAIR said in its statement.
In the year following the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, Israel has been repeatedly accused of inflicting famine in Hamas-ruled Gaza. Despite the allegations, there is scant evidence of mass starvation across the war-torn enclave.
This is not the first time that FEWS Net has attempted to accuse Israel of inflicting famine in Gaza. In June, the United Nations Famine Review Committee (FRC), a panel of experts in international food security and nutrition, rejected claims by FEWS Net that a famine had taken hold of northern Gaza. In rejecting the allegations, the FRC cited an “uncertainty and lack of convergence of the supporting evidence employed in the analysis.”
Meanwhile, CAIR has been embroiled in controversy since the onset of the Gaza war last October.
CAIR has been embroiled in controversy since the Oct. 7 atrocities. The head of CAIR, for example, said he was “happy” to witness Hamas’s rampage across southern Israel.
“The people of Gaza only decided to break the siege — the walls of the concentration camp — on Oct. 7,” CAIR co-founder and executive director Nihad Awad said in a speech during the American Muslims for Palestine convention in Chicago in November. “And yes, I was happy to see people breaking the siege and throwing down the shackles of their own land, and walk free into their land, which they were not allowed to walk in.”
CAIR has long been a controversial organization. In the 2000s, it was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land Foundation terrorism financing case. Politico noted in 2010 that “US District Court Judge Jorge Solis found that the government presented ‘ample evidence to establish the association’” of CAIR with Hamas.
According to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), “some of CAIR’s current leadership had early connections with organizations that are or were affiliated with Hamas.” CAIR has disputed the accuracy of the ADL’s claim and asserted that it “unequivocally condemn[s] all acts of terrorism, whether carried out by al-Qa’ida, the Real IRA, FARC, Hamas, ETA, or any other group designated by the US Department of State as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization.’”
The post Controversial Islamic Group CAIR Chides US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew for Denying Report of ‘Famine’ in Gaza first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Jewish Civil Rights Group Representing Amsterdam Pogrom Victims Slams Dutch Court for ‘Light Sentences’
Israeli Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters are guarded by police after violence targeting Israeli football fans broke out in Amsterdam overnight, in Amsterdam, Netherlands, November 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ami Shooman/Israel Hayom
The international Jewish civil rights organization legally representing more than 50 victims of the attack on Israeli soccer fans that took place in Amsterdam last month has joined many voices in lambasting a Dutch court for what they described as a mild punishment for the attackers.
“These sentences are an insult to the victims and a stain on the Dutch legal system,” The Lawfare Project’s founder and executive director Brooke Goldstein said in a statement on Wednesday. “Allowing individuals who coordinated and celebrated acts of violence to walk away with minimal consequences diminishes the rule of law and undermines trust in the judicial process. If this is the response to such blatant antisemitism, what hope is there for deterring future offenders or safeguarding the Jewish community.”
On Tuesday, a district court in Amsterdam sentenced five men for their participation in the violent attacks in the Dutch city against fans of the Israeli soccer team Maccabi Tel Aviv. The premeditated and coordinated violence took place on the night of Nov. 7 and into the early hours of Nov 8, before and after Maccabi Tel Aviv competed against the Dutch soccer team Ajax in a UEFA Europa League match. The five suspects were sentenced to up to 100 hours of community service and up to six months in prison.
The attackers were found guilty of public violence, which included kicking an individual lying on the ground, and inciting the violence by calling on members of a WhatsApp group chat to gather and attack Maccabi Tel Aviv fans. One man sentenced on Tuesday who had a “leading role” in the violence, according to prosecutors, was given the longest sentence — six months in prison.
“As someone who witnessed these trials firsthand, I am deeply disheartened by the leniency of these sentences,” added Ziporah Reich, director of litigation at The Lawfare Project. “The violent, coordinated attacks against Jews in Amsterdam are among the worst antisemitic incidents in Europe. These light sentences fail to reflect the gravity of these crimes and do little to deliver justice to the victims who are left traumatized and unheard. Even more troubling, they set a dangerous precedent, signaling to future offenders that such horrific acts of violence will not be met with serious consequences.”
The Lawfare Project said on Wednesday that it is representing over 50 victims of the Amsterdam attacks. It has also secured for their clients a local counsel — Peter Plasman, who is a partner at the Amsterdam-based law firm Kötter L’Homme Plasman — to represent them in the Netherlands. The Lawfare Project aims to protect the civil and human rights of Jewish people around the world through legal action.
Others who have criticized the Dutch court for its sentencing of the five men on Tuesday included Arsen Ostrovsky, a leading human rights attorney and CEO of The International Legal Forum; Tal-Or Cohen, the founder and CEO of CyberWell; and The Center for Information and Documentation on Israel.
The post Jewish Civil Rights Group Representing Amsterdam Pogrom Victims Slams Dutch Court for ‘Light Sentences’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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