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Syria in the Post-Assad Era: Towards Ethnic Division or a Unified State?

Rebel fighters holds weapons at the Citadel of Aleppo, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted Bashar al-Assad, in Aleppo, Syria, Dec. 9, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
The past decade has seen Syria engulfed in a brutal civil war, marked by foreign intervention, relentless repression, and the unraveling of its fragile social fabric. This turmoil has fueled a mass exodus of refugees, reshaping Europe’s demographics and political landscape.
Now, as the Assad regime has collapsed, Syria faces a pivotal question: Can it emerge as a unified sovereign state, or will ethnic divisions dictate its future?
Historical Roots of the Crisis: Artificial Borders and Failed Ethnic Harmony
Syria’s current plight is not solely the result of recent events. It stems from deep-seated issues rooted in the colonial legacy of the Middle East.
The 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement carved up the region with scant regard for its ethnic, religious, and sectarian complexities. The resulting state was a volatile mosaic of Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Druze, Christians, Turkmen, and others.
During the French Mandate, attempts were made to partition Syria into autonomous regions based on ethnic and sectarian lines. These included a Druze state in Jebel Druze, an Alawite state in Latakia, a Turkmen-dominated region of Alexandretta, and separate Arab Sunni states for Damascus and Aleppo. However, this experiment failed, and in 1946, Syria gained independence as a unified state.
A Unified Kingdom or Ethnic Partition?
After Assad’s abdication, the question of Syria’s future looms large. Could it return to being a unified state, or is ethnic partition a more viable path to stability?
Among the potential scenarios:
- Druze Autonomy in Jebel Druze: A concept supported in the past by figures like Israeli leader Yigal Alon, this option could appeal to local Druze communities. However, their willingness to align with a pro-Israel arrangement remains doubtful given their precarious geopolitical position.
- An Alawite State in Latakia: Syria’s coastal region, an Alawite stronghold, could serve as a natural refuge for the community. It’s even conceivable, in the region’s unpredictable dynamics, that Bashar al-Assad himself could return there.
- A Federal Syrian Model: Similar to Iraq, this approach would grant significant autonomy to various groups while maintaining the semblance of a unified state.
Key Challenges
- Foreign Interference: Major players like Russia, Turkey, and Iran have heavily invested in Syria, each pursuing its strategic interests. Any ethnic partition would likely face their strong opposition, especially if it diminishes their influence.
- Leadership and Israeli Policy: Should a figure like Abu Mohammad al-Julani, with roots in al-Qaeda, retain power, the prospects for stability dim further. Julani’s ties to the Golan Heights –his family fled the region after the 1967 war — underscore his likely antagonism toward Israel and territorial concessions.
- The Golan Heights Question: Once a contentious issue in peace negotiations, the strategic importance of the Golan was underscored during the Syrian civil war. The chaos reaffirmed Israel’s security imperative to retain the area, a sentiment bolstered by US recognition of Israeli sovereignty there.
Syria’s Future: A Litmus Test for Israeli Policy
Post-Assad Syria is a test of Israel’s strategic approach to regional instability. Israel must maintain its deterrence posture, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized during his significant visit to the Golan Heights. Strengthening Israel’s hold on this strategic region is crucial to countering hostile actors.
While some in the international community hope for a unified Syria, the reality suggests otherwise. Ethnic partition appears to be one of the few pragmatic solutions to stabilize the country. Yet, aggressive opposition from global powers and internal factions renders this outcome unlikely in the near term.
Turkey, for instance, vehemently opposes a Kurdish autonomy that might embolden its own Kurdish minority. Iran seeks to consolidate its influence through Shiite alliances, including with the Alawites. Meanwhile, figures like Julani will resist any division that curtails their power or excludes major factions from influence.
Toward a Federal Solution?
The enduring conflict makes meaningful reconstruction a distant prospect. Ethnic partition offers a glimmer of hope for stability, but remains a long shot. Interim solutions, such as a federal system granting limited autonomy within a unified framework, may provide the only viable path forward.
Ultimately, the success of such models depends on creative and painstaking negotiations, both locally and internationally. Syria’s post-Assad reality is a complex battlefield of clashing interests, and achieving the elusive goal of stability will require unprecedented diplomatic ingenuity.
Itamar Tzur is an Israeli scholar and Middle East expert who holds a Bachelor’s degree with honors in Jewish History and a Master’s degree with honors in Middle Eastern Studies. As a senior member of the “Forum Kedem for Middle Eastern Studies and Public Diplomacy,” Tzur leverages his academic expertise to enhance understanding of regional dynamics and historical contexts within the Middle East.
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Peace Meals: Chef José Andrés Says ‘Good People’ On Both Sides of Gaza Conflict Ill-Served By Leaders, Food Can Bridge Divide

Chef and head of World Central Kitchen Jose Andres attends the Milken Institute Global Conference 2025 in Beverly Hills, California, US, May 5, 2025. Photo: Reuters/Mike Blake.
Renowned Spanish chef and World Central Kitchen (WCK) founder José Andrés called the Oct. 7 attack “horrendous” in an interview Wednesday and shared his hopes for reconciliation between the “vast majority” on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide who are “good people that very often are not served well by their leaders”
WCK is a US-based, nonprofit organization that provides fresh meals to people in conflict zones around the world. The charity has been actively serving Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank since the Oct. 7 massacre in southern Israel. Since the Hamas attack, WCK has served more than 133 million meals across Gaza, according to its website.
The restaurateur and humanitarian has been quoted saying in past interviews that “sometimes very big problems have very simple solutions.” On Wednesday’s episode of the Wall Street Journal podcast “Bold Names,” he was asked to elaborate on that thought. He responded by saying he believes good meals and good leaders can help resolve issues between Israelis and Palestinians, who, he believes, genuinely want to live harmoniously with each other.
“I had people in Gaza, mothers, women making bread,” he said. “Moments that you had of closeness they were telling you: ‘What Hamas did was wrong. I wouldn’t [want] anybody to do this to my children.’ And I had Israelis that even lost family members. They say, ‘I would love to go to Gaza to be next to the people to show them that we respect them …’ And this to me is very fascinating because it’s the reality.
“Maybe some people call me naive. [But] the vast majority of the people are good people that very often are not served well by their leaders. And the simple reality of recognizing that many truths can be true at the same time in the same phrase that what happened on October 7th was horrendous and was never supposed to happen. And that’s why World Central Kitchen was there next to the people in Israel feeding in the kibbutz from day one, and at the same time that I defended obviously the right of Israel to defend itself and to try to bring back the hostages. Equally, what is happening in Gaza is not supposed to be happening either.”
Andres noted that he supports Israel’s efforts to target Hamas terrorists but then seemingly accused Israel of “continuously” targeting children and civilians during its military operations against the terror group.
“We need leaders that believe in that, that believe in longer tables,” he concluded. “It’s so simple to invest in peace … It’s so simple to do good. It’s so simple to invest in a better tomorrow. Food is a solution to many of the issues we’re facing. Let’s hope that … one day in the Middle East it’ll be people just celebrating the cultures that sometimes if you look at what they eat, they seem all to eat exactly the same.”
In 2024, WCK fired at least 62 of its staff members in Gaza after Israel said they had ties to terrorist groups. In one case, Israel discovered that a WCK employee named Ahed Azmi Qdeih took part in the deadly Hamas rampage across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Qdeih was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza in November 2024.
In April 2024, the Israel Defense Forces received backlash for carrying out airstrikes on a WCK vehicle convoy which killed seven of the charity’s employees. Israel’s military chief, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, said the airstrikes were “a mistake that followed a misidentification,” and Israel dismissed two senior officers as a result of the mishandled military operation.
The strikes “were not just some unfortunate mistake in the fog of war,” Andrés alleged.
“It was a direct attack on clearly marked vehicles whose movements were known by” the Israeli military, he claimed in an op-ed published by Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot. “It was also the direct result of [the Israeli] government’s policy to squeeze humanitarian aid to desperate levels.”
In a statement on X, Andres accused Israel of “indiscriminate killing,” saying the Jewish state “needs to stop restricting humanitarian aid, stop killing civilians and aid workers, and stop using food as a weapon.”
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Hamas to Release 10 Israeli Hostages as US-Backed Ceasefire Talks Gain Momentum

People watch a screen on the day Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, who was kidnapped during the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, is released from Hamas captivity in Gaza, in Alexander’s hometown of Tenafly, New Jersey, US, May 12, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
Hamas said it would release 10 Israeli hostages in an effort to reach a ceasefire deal, as growing international pressure mounts on the Palestinian terrorist group to end the 21-month war in the Gaza Strip.
In a statement Wednesday, the Iran-backed terror group said negotiations with Israel had been difficult but reaffirmed its commitment to the talks, while offering no timeline for the hostages’ release.
Hamas “continues its intensive and responsible efforts to ensure the success of the ongoing round of negotiations, striving to reach a comprehensive agreement that ends the aggression against our people, secures the free and safe entry of humanitarian aid, and alleviates the worsening suffering in the Gaza Strip,” the statement reads.
“In its commitment to the success of the current efforts, the movement has shown the necessary flexibility and agreed to release 10 prisoners,” the Palestinian terror group said.
Among the remaining 50 hostages still held in the war-torn enclave, fewer than half are believed to be alive, with 28 reported dead.
Hamas’ latest announcement came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week to advance ceasefire efforts focused on securing the release of hostages still held in Gaza.
The US ceasefire plan proposed by Trump sets a 60-day timeline to finalize the details leading to a full resolution of the conflict.
Even though Trump hasn’t provided details on the proposed truce, he said Washington would “work with all parties to end the war” during the 60-day period.
“I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” he wrote in a social media post last week.
Since the start of the war, ceasefire talks between Jerusalem and Hamas have repeatedly failed to yield enduring results.
Israeli officials have previously said they will only agree to end the war if Hamas surrenders, disarms, and goes into exile — a demand the terror group has firmly rejected.
For its part, Hamas has said it is willing to release the remaining 50 hostages in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war.
On Wednesday, Trump expressed optimism that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be reached soon, potentially as early as this or next week. However, he also stressed that no agreement is guaranteed yet.
On Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed similar optimism, saying he believes “we’re closer than we’ve been in quite a while” to securing a ceasefire. He also noted that US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff is hopeful that indirect negotiations will take place soon.
According to media reports, the proposed 60-day ceasefire would include a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a surge in humanitarian aid, and the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas, with US and mediator assurances on advancing talks to end the war.
For Israel, the key to any deal is the release of most, if not all, hostages still held in Gaza, as well as the disarmament of Hamas. The terror group, meanwhile, is seeking assurances to end the war as it tries to reassert control over the war-torn enclave.
In earlier efforts, a ceasefire that ended in March brought roughly two months of relative calm and led to the release of 33 hostages in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
After the first phase ended, however, the two sides failed to agree on terms for a second phase, leading Hamas to halt further hostage releases and prompting a resumption of Israeli military action.
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Jeffries, House Dem Leaders Demand GOP Rep. Randy Fine Apologize For Calling Ilhan Omar a ‘Terrorist’

Florida Republican State Sen. Randy Fine. Photo: Reuters
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) sharply rebuked Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL) for what he called “bigoted and disgusting” rhetoric directed at Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), joining a growing chorus of Democratic lawmakers and civil rights groups denouncing Fine’s remarks as overtly Islamophobic.
In a post on X earlier this week, Fine referred to Omar as a “Muslim terrorist,” adding, “The only shame is that you serve in Congress.” The comment came in response to Omar’s criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent address to Congress, which she called “shameful.”
Jeffries, joined by Democratic Whip Katherine Clark and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, issued a joint statement rejecting Fine’s language as “unhinged, racist, and Islamophobic.” The House Democratic leaders urged him to apologize, saying, “These vile comments have no place in our political discourse.”
Omar, one of the first Muslim women elected to Congress, thanked her colleagues for standing in solidarity. She called on Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) to hold Fine accountable.
“Not only does normalizing this bigotry and violence endanger my life but all Muslims including in Fine’s own district,” Omar posted to her X account. “This type of Islamophobic language demands accountability.”
Fine has not apologized and instead doubled down on his attacks. In a follow-up post, he derided Democratic leadership as the “Hamas Caucus” and responded to backlash with, “Boo hoo.” Speaking to CNN, Fine dismissed criticism of his remarks as “ad hominem attacks” and claimed Democrats were more upset at his tone than at Omar’s earlier comments about Netanyahu, whom she referred to as a war criminal.
The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) has renewed its call for Fine to face formal censure, citing a long record of inflammatory remarks about Muslims and Palestinians. In past social media posts, Fine has suggested deportations and called Palestinians “barbarians,” fueling accusations that his rhetoric goes beyond political disagreement and into outright hate speech.
The controversy arrives amid growing national scrutiny over the rise of incendiary language in politics, particularly as tensions continue to flare over US policy in the Middle East. With calls for accountability mounting, Democratic leaders say Congress must draw a clear line against hate, especially from within its own ranks.
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