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The 5 Biggest Miscalculations the Iranian Regime Made
FILE PHOTO: A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit bomber takes off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam January 11, 2018. Picture taken January 11, 2018. U.S. Air Force/Airman 1st Class Gerald Willis/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran surprised some. Here are the five main miscalculations the Iranian regime made that led to this point. The Iranian regime has seen its miscalculations surface in layers, like the peeling of an onion. Though no one can predict the future and some things remain unclear, it is important to examine five mistakes.
1. Iran’s leaders thought Trump was bluffing and wouldn’t attack directly.
President Trump was not lying when he said he didn’t want to start new wars. Perhaps military action could have been prevented if Iran’s leaders offered inspections, negotiated in good faith, and were ready to seriously constrict uranium enrichment.
Many news reports and podcasts made the regime think the isolationist wing of Trump’s power base had his ear, and the public would fear attacks on US servicemen in the region so much it would be too costly to attack. Trump did kill General Qassem Soleimani in his first term, but he didn’t go further. The stealth B-2 bombers that dropped the huge bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities cost more than $2 billion each, and the regime may have thought Trump would be risk averse to seeing them shot down. While it is extremely difficult to take down B-2 planes, seeing that no Israeli planes were shot down and Iran’s defenses were weakened likely emboldened Trump.
2. Iran’s leaders thought proxies and “allies” would make them bulletproof.
With the well-armed Hezbollah, the Houthis disrupting shipping routes, Hamas in Gaza, and Iranian proxy forces in Syria, Tehran thought Israel and the US would be too scared to attack it directly.
Iran never imagined Hezbollah’s power would be reduced so quickly, it did not expect the Syrian government to fall in the way that it did, and it did not expect to see Hamas and the Houthis so weakened. The Iranian regime, which assisted Russia in its war against Ukraine with drones, and provides a huge amount of oil to China, also imagined the potential threat of Russia or China coming to its aid might scare off any significant attack. There remains a possibility that China, North Korea, or Russia could get involved militarily — but it is unlikely. More likely the Houthis will resume firing missiles.
3. Iran misunderstood the larger ramifications of the attacks of October 7.
Seeing great schisms in Israel over the judicial reform issue, Iran hoped Israel would implode after October 7 — or at the very least, see the ousting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iran likely believed that the information and PR campaign against Israel — falsely calling it a genocidal entity — would weaken it and make Israel too afraid to make bold moves. Instead, it made the Israeli public united on the need to take the threat of Iran seriously and be more proactive.
4. Iran underestimated the Mossad and Shin Bet, Israel’s security services.
It was a huge blow that Israel, said to have the best security services in the world, did not know Hamas was going to attack when it did on October 7, 2023.
But for the Mossad to be able to not only kill numerous Iranian generals at the same time, but deploy drones and other equipment on Iranian soil likely took the regime (and the level of infiltration Israel has achieved) by surprise. Iran not only underestimated the Mossad’s ability, but it likely didn’t understand its brutality against its citizens would allow the Mossad to get Iranian assets so consistently on the ground.
5. Iran though Israel’s muted response in 2024 meant it would not be more aggressive.
In April and October of 2024, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel. The Jewish State responded by weakening Iran’s air defenses, but it did not go after any major installations. It is quite possible that the regime felt that since Israel did not become more aggressive, it was a sign that the Jewish State wouldn’t risk a major direct attack. But as we’ve seen, they were very, very wrong.
The author is a writer based in New York.
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Spain Pushes EU to Suspend Israel Trade Pact Amid Gaza Conflict, Sparking Division Within Bloc
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares, Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, and Ireland’s Foreign Minister Micheal Martin hold a press conference in Brussels, Belgium, May 27, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Johanna Geron
Spain will formally petition the European Union to approve an “immediate suspension” of its association agreement with Israel — a pact governing the EU’s political and economic ties with Jerusalem — to protest what it calls human rights violations in Gaza.
On Monday, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares announced that the country will also ask the EU to approve an arms embargo on Israel and impose sanctions on individuals accused of undermining the two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
“We have on the table a report by the High Representative, requested for many months by Spain, which clearly indicates what Spain already knew, that there is a flagrant violation of human rights at this time in Gaza by Israel and that, therefore, that association council between the European Union and Israel, which is precisely based on human rights, is being violated,” Albares said in a statement.
“The Palestinian Gazans need action and, therefore, the important thing today is not to denounce … we have done it for months,” the top Spanish diplomat continued. “It is not the denunciations that are going to stop this inhumane war in Gaza, it is the actions.”
“The time for words, for statements, is behind us,” Albares said, calling on the EU to show the “courage” to take concrete action.
Spain’s latest anti-Israel move follows a newly released EU-commissioned report accusing Israel of committing “indiscriminate attacks … starvation … torture … [and] apartheid” against Palestinians in Gaza during its military campaign against Hamas, an internationally designated terrorist group.
According to the report, “there are indications that Israel would be in breach of its human rights obligations” under the 25-year-old EU-Israel Association Agreement.
While the document acknowledges the existence of violence by Hamas, it states that this issue lies outside its scope — failing to address the Palestinian terrorist group’s role in sparking the current war with its Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel.
Israeli officials have slammed the report as factually incorrect and morally flawed, noting Hamas embeds its military infrastructure within civilian targets and Israel’s army takes extensive precautions to try and avoid civilian casualties.
The eight-page document was set for discussion at Monday’s EU Foreign Affairs Council, followed by a personal briefing from EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas to the bloc’s leaders at the June summit later this week in Brussels.
“I will now address the results of the review with Israel,” Kallas said at a news conference following a meeting of European foreign ministers. “Our first goal is to change the situation on the ground and help humanitarian aid to get in.”
Kallas said she would return to the issue in July if there had been no improvement.
This latest anti-Israel push by several EU member states builds on Belgium’s recent decision to review Israel’s compliance with its trade agreement — a process initiated by the Netherlands and led by Kallas, after a majority of member states called for a formal probe.
Despite efforts by some European countries to undermine Israel’s defensive campaign against Hamas in Gaza, the Jewish state continues to have support within the EU.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has made clear that Rome opposes any suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
“Our position is different from that of Spain,” Tajani said in a statement, adding that maintaining open relations with Israel has helped facilitate the evacuation of civilians from Gaza.
Germany also does not support calls to suspend the pact governing Israel‘s relations with the EU.
“Our position is very clear — we do not support either a suspension or a partial suspension,” the official said at a German government briefing, according to Reuters.
For its part, Spain in recent years has been one of Jerusalem’s fiercest critics, a stance that has only intensified since Hamas’s onslaught on Israel.
Albares, with the backing of his government including Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, has actively pushed for anti-Israel measures on the international stage, all while portraying himself as a dedicated supporter of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In the aftermath of the Oct. 7 atrocities, Spain halted arms shipments from its own defense companies to Israel and launched a diplomatic campaign to curb the country’s military response.
At the same time, several Spanish ministers in the country’s left-wing coalition government issued pro-Hamas statements and called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, with some falsely accusing Israel of “genocide.”
Last year, Spain officially recognized a Palestinian state, claiming the move was accelerated by the Israel-Hamas war and would help foster peace in the region. Israeli officials described the decision as a “reward for terrorism.”
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Progressive Democrats Condemn US Airstrikes on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities
US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) speaks during a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on March 21, 2024. Photo: Craig Hudson/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect
Progressive members of the US Congress are denouncing President Donald Trump’s decision to order military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, calling the move reckless, illegal, and a dangerous provocation that could drag the United States into a broader conflict in the Middle East.
On Saturday night, Trump authorized Operation Midnight Hammer, a large-scale US strike on three key Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. The Pentagon later revealed that seven B‑2 Spirit stealth bombers flew from Whiteman Air Force base, escorted by fighter jets and refueling tankers, and supported by a submarine-launched salvo of Tomahawk missiles targeting Isfahan. The B‑2s pummeled Fordo and Natanz with 14 massive bunker-buster bombs.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), one of the most outspoken progressive voices in Congress, denounced the strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
“The president’s disastrous decision to bomb Iran without authorization is a grave violation of the Constitution and Congressional War Powers. He has impulsively risked launching a war that may ensnare us for generations. It is absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment,” Ocasi0-Cortez said in a statement.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), another longtime critic of American interventionism, criticized the airstrikes while speaking to an audience of his supporters.
“Not only is this news … alarming, but it is so grossly unconstitutional. … The only entity that can take this country to war is the US Congress,” Sanders said.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), the leader of House Democrats, lambasted Trump for allegedly circumventing Congress in authorizing the strikes: “President Trump misled the country about his intentions, failed to seek congressional authorization for the use of military force and risks American entanglement in a potentially disastrous war in the Middle East.”
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) condemned the strikes and suggested they could escalate violence within the region.
“The strikes on Iran, ordered by President Trump and executed without congressional authorization, mark a dangerous and reckless escalation of an already volatile conflict in the Middle East,” Omar wrote on X/Twitter.
“Military strikes will not bring peace. They will only provoke more violence, destabilize the region, and endanger US troops and civilians. We’ve seen what happens when diplomacy is sidelined in favor of bombs. It only brings more death and destruction,” she continued.
Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), the sole Palestinian-American woman in Congress, called the strikes a “blatant violation of our Constitution.”
“Instead of listening to the American people, Trump is listening to War Criminal Netanyahu, who lied about Iraq and is lying once again about Iran. Congress must act immediately to exert its war powers and stop this unconstitutional act of war,” Tlaib said in a statement, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
According to the War Powers Resolution of 1973, the president must notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying American troops if a formal declaration of war has not already been issued. The resolution also mandates that the president withdraw any forces deployed in a conflict within 60 days if Congress has not formally declared war.
Supporters of the US strike have argued that Trump is acting within his legal authority, noting that the US government has long identified Iran as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism responsible for the deaths of many Americans. Trump and many lawmakers have said for years that such a regime can’t be allowed to build nuclear weapons, even if it means using military force.
Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful, civilian purposes.
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Iran Attacks US Base in Qatar With Missiles, Doha Says No Casualties
Traces are seen in the sky after Iran’s armed forces say they targeted The Al-Udeid base in a missile attack, as seen from Doha, Qatar, June 23, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
Iran launched multiple missiles against the Al Udeid US airbase in Qatar on Monday, retaliating for American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend.
In a post on X, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced the country had successfully intercepted Iranian missiles, noting there were no casualties, but condemned the strikes as “brazen aggression.”
“The State of Qatar strongly condemns the attack that targeted Al-Udeid Air Base by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. We consider this a flagrant violation of sovereignty,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said in a statement.
“We reassured that Qatar’s air defenses successfully thwarted the attack and intercepted the Iranian missiles,” he continued.
Shortly after the attack, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also released a statement confirming it had carried out the strike on Qatar.
“The base that was targeted in the attack by the powerful Iranian forces was far from urban facilities and residential areas in Qatar,” the statement reads. “This action did not pose any threat to our friendly and brotherly country, Qatar, and its noble people.”
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