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The 5 Biggest Miscalculations the Iranian Regime Made
FILE PHOTO: A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit bomber takes off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam January 11, 2018. Picture taken January 11, 2018. U.S. Air Force/Airman 1st Class Gerald Willis/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran surprised some. Here are the five main miscalculations the Iranian regime made that led to this point. The Iranian regime has seen its miscalculations surface in layers, like the peeling of an onion. Though no one can predict the future and some things remain unclear, it is important to examine five mistakes.
1. Iran’s leaders thought Trump was bluffing and wouldn’t attack directly.
President Trump was not lying when he said he didn’t want to start new wars. Perhaps military action could have been prevented if Iran’s leaders offered inspections, negotiated in good faith, and were ready to seriously constrict uranium enrichment.
Many news reports and podcasts made the regime think the isolationist wing of Trump’s power base had his ear, and the public would fear attacks on US servicemen in the region so much it would be too costly to attack. Trump did kill General Qassem Soleimani in his first term, but he didn’t go further. The stealth B-2 bombers that dropped the huge bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities cost more than $2 billion each, and the regime may have thought Trump would be risk averse to seeing them shot down. While it is extremely difficult to take down B-2 planes, seeing that no Israeli planes were shot down and Iran’s defenses were weakened likely emboldened Trump.
2. Iran’s leaders thought proxies and “allies” would make them bulletproof.
With the well-armed Hezbollah, the Houthis disrupting shipping routes, Hamas in Gaza, and Iranian proxy forces in Syria, Tehran thought Israel and the US would be too scared to attack it directly.
Iran never imagined Hezbollah’s power would be reduced so quickly, it did not expect the Syrian government to fall in the way that it did, and it did not expect to see Hamas and the Houthis so weakened. The Iranian regime, which assisted Russia in its war against Ukraine with drones, and provides a huge amount of oil to China, also imagined the potential threat of Russia or China coming to its aid might scare off any significant attack. There remains a possibility that China, North Korea, or Russia could get involved militarily — but it is unlikely. More likely the Houthis will resume firing missiles.
3. Iran misunderstood the larger ramifications of the attacks of October 7.
Seeing great schisms in Israel over the judicial reform issue, Iran hoped Israel would implode after October 7 — or at the very least, see the ousting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iran likely believed that the information and PR campaign against Israel — falsely calling it a genocidal entity — would weaken it and make Israel too afraid to make bold moves. Instead, it made the Israeli public united on the need to take the threat of Iran seriously and be more proactive.
4. Iran underestimated the Mossad and Shin Bet, Israel’s security services.
It was a huge blow that Israel, said to have the best security services in the world, did not know Hamas was going to attack when it did on October 7, 2023.
But for the Mossad to be able to not only kill numerous Iranian generals at the same time, but deploy drones and other equipment on Iranian soil likely took the regime (and the level of infiltration Israel has achieved) by surprise. Iran not only underestimated the Mossad’s ability, but it likely didn’t understand its brutality against its citizens would allow the Mossad to get Iranian assets so consistently on the ground.
5. Iran though Israel’s muted response in 2024 meant it would not be more aggressive.
In April and October of 2024, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel. The Jewish State responded by weakening Iran’s air defenses, but it did not go after any major installations. It is quite possible that the regime felt that since Israel did not become more aggressive, it was a sign that the Jewish State wouldn’t risk a major direct attack. But as we’ve seen, they were very, very wrong.
The author is a writer based in New York.
The post The 5 Biggest Miscalculations the Iranian Regime Made first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Rubio Heads to Israel Amid Tensions Among US Middle East Allies
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to members of the media, before departing for Israel at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, September 13, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Nathan Howard/Pool
US President Donald Trump’s top diplomat, Marco Rubio headed to Israel on Saturday, amid tensions with fellow US allies in the Middle East over Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar and expansion of settlements in the West Bank.
Speaking to reporters before departure, Rubio reiterated that the US and President Donald Trump were not happy about the strikes.
Rubio said the US relationship with Israel would not be affected, but that he would discuss with the Israelis how the strike would affect Trump’s desire to secure the return of all the hostages held by Hamas, get rid of the terrorists and end the Gaza war.
“What’s happened, has happened,” he said. “We’re gonna meet with them. We’re gonna talk about what the future holds,” he said.
“There are still 48 hostages that deserve to be released immediately, all at once. And there is still the hard work ahead once this ends, of rebuilding Gaza in a way that provides people the quality of life that they all want.”
Rubio said it had yet to be determined who would do that, who would pay for it and who would be in charge of the process.
After Israel, Rubio is due to join Trump’s planned visit to Britain next week.
Hamas still holds 48 hostages, and Qatar has been one of the mediators, along with the US, trying to secure a ceasefire deal that would include the captives’ release.
On Tuesday, Israel attempted to kill the political leaders of Hamas with an airstrike on Doha. US officials described it as a unilateral escalation that did not serve American or Israeli interests.
The strike on the territory of a close US ally sparked broad condemnation from other Arab states and derailed ceasefire and hostage talks brokered by Qatar.
On Friday, Rubio met with Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani at the White House, underscoring competing interests in the region that Rubio will seek to balance on his trip. Later that day, US President Donald Trump held dinner with the prime minister in New York.
Rubio’s trip comes ahead of high-level meetings at the United Nations in New York later this month. Countries including France and Britain are expected to recognize Palestinian statehood, a move opposed by Israel.
Washington says such recognition would bolster Hamas and Rubio has suggested the move could spur the annexation of the West Bank sought by hardline members of the Israeli government.
ON Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed an agreement to push ahead with a settlement expansion plan that would cut across West Bank land that the Palestinians seek for a state. Last week, the United Arab Emirates warned that this would cross a red line and undermine the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords that normalized UAE-Israel relations in 2020.
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Netanyahu Posts Message Appearing to Confirm Hamas Leaders Survived Doha Strike
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a Plenum session of the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, in Jerusalem, June 11, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
i24 News – In a statement posted to social media on Saturday evening, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the Qatar-based leadership of Hamas, reiterating that the jihadist group had to regard for the lives of Gazans and represented an obstacle to ending the war and releasing the Israelis it held hostage.
The wording of Netanyahu’s message appeared to confirm that the strike targeting the Hamas leaders in Doha was not crowned with success.
“The Hamas terrorists chiefs living in Qatar don’t care about the people in Gaza,” wrote Netanyahu. “They blocked all ceasefire attempts in order to endlessly drag out the war.” He added that “Getting rid of them would rid the main obstacle to releasing all our hostages and ending the war.”
Israel is yet to officially comment on the result of the strike, which has incurred widespread international criticism.
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Trump Hosts Qatari Prime Minister After Israeli Attack in Doha
Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani attends an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, following an Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, at UN headquarters in New York City, US, Sept. 11, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
US President Donald Trump held dinner with the Qatari prime minister in New York on Friday, days after US ally Israel attacked Hamas leaders in Doha.
Israel attempted to kill the political leaders of Hamas with an attack in Qatar on Tuesday, a strike that risked derailing US-backed efforts to broker a truce in Gaza and end the nearly two-year-old conflict. The attack was widely condemned in the Middle East and beyond as an act that could escalate tensions in a region already on edge.
Trump expressed annoyance about the strike in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and sought to assure the Qataris that such attacks would not happen again.
Trump and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani were joined by a top Trump adviser, US special envoy Steve Witkoff.
“Great dinner with POTUS. Just ended,” Qatar’s deputy chief of mission, Hamah Al-Muftah, said on X.
The White House confirmed the dinner had taken place but offered no details.
The session followed an hour-long meeting that al-Thani had at the White House on Friday with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
A source briefed on the meeting said they discussed Qatar’s future as a mediator in the region and defense cooperation in the wake of the Israeli strikes against Hamas in Doha.
Trump said he was unhappy with Israel’s strike, which he described as a unilateral action that did not advance US or Israeli interests.
Washington counts Qatar as a strong Gulf ally. Qatar has been a main mediator in long-running negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, for the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza and for a post-conflict plan for the territory.
Al-Thani blamed Israel on Tuesday for trying to sabotage chances for peace but said Qatar would not be deterred from its role as mediator.