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The 5 Biggest Miscalculations the Iranian Regime Made
FILE PHOTO: A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit bomber takes off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam January 11, 2018. Picture taken January 11, 2018. U.S. Air Force/Airman 1st Class Gerald Willis/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran surprised some. Here are the five main miscalculations the Iranian regime made that led to this point. The Iranian regime has seen its miscalculations surface in layers, like the peeling of an onion. Though no one can predict the future and some things remain unclear, it is important to examine five mistakes.
1. Iran’s leaders thought Trump was bluffing and wouldn’t attack directly.
President Trump was not lying when he said he didn’t want to start new wars. Perhaps military action could have been prevented if Iran’s leaders offered inspections, negotiated in good faith, and were ready to seriously constrict uranium enrichment.
Many news reports and podcasts made the regime think the isolationist wing of Trump’s power base had his ear, and the public would fear attacks on US servicemen in the region so much it would be too costly to attack. Trump did kill General Qassem Soleimani in his first term, but he didn’t go further. The stealth B-2 bombers that dropped the huge bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities cost more than $2 billion each, and the regime may have thought Trump would be risk averse to seeing them shot down. While it is extremely difficult to take down B-2 planes, seeing that no Israeli planes were shot down and Iran’s defenses were weakened likely emboldened Trump.
2. Iran’s leaders thought proxies and “allies” would make them bulletproof.
With the well-armed Hezbollah, the Houthis disrupting shipping routes, Hamas in Gaza, and Iranian proxy forces in Syria, Tehran thought Israel and the US would be too scared to attack it directly.
Iran never imagined Hezbollah’s power would be reduced so quickly, it did not expect the Syrian government to fall in the way that it did, and it did not expect to see Hamas and the Houthis so weakened. The Iranian regime, which assisted Russia in its war against Ukraine with drones, and provides a huge amount of oil to China, also imagined the potential threat of Russia or China coming to its aid might scare off any significant attack. There remains a possibility that China, North Korea, or Russia could get involved militarily — but it is unlikely. More likely the Houthis will resume firing missiles.
3. Iran misunderstood the larger ramifications of the attacks of October 7.
Seeing great schisms in Israel over the judicial reform issue, Iran hoped Israel would implode after October 7 — or at the very least, see the ousting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iran likely believed that the information and PR campaign against Israel — falsely calling it a genocidal entity — would weaken it and make Israel too afraid to make bold moves. Instead, it made the Israeli public united on the need to take the threat of Iran seriously and be more proactive.
4. Iran underestimated the Mossad and Shin Bet, Israel’s security services.
It was a huge blow that Israel, said to have the best security services in the world, did not know Hamas was going to attack when it did on October 7, 2023.
But for the Mossad to be able to not only kill numerous Iranian generals at the same time, but deploy drones and other equipment on Iranian soil likely took the regime (and the level of infiltration Israel has achieved) by surprise. Iran not only underestimated the Mossad’s ability, but it likely didn’t understand its brutality against its citizens would allow the Mossad to get Iranian assets so consistently on the ground.
5. Iran though Israel’s muted response in 2024 meant it would not be more aggressive.
In April and October of 2024, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel. The Jewish State responded by weakening Iran’s air defenses, but it did not go after any major installations. It is quite possible that the regime felt that since Israel did not become more aggressive, it was a sign that the Jewish State wouldn’t risk a major direct attack. But as we’ve seen, they were very, very wrong.
The author is a writer based in New York.
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Hostage Deal talks Stalled as Hamas Rejects New Israeli Framework – Report
US President Donald Trump and Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend a signing ceremony in Doha, Qatar, May 14, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Brian Snyder
i24 News – i24NEWS’s diplomatic affairs correspondent, Amichai Stein, reported Sunday evening that negotiations over a potential hostage deal have hit a standstill.
According to political sources, “the negotiations are stalled, Hamas is refusing the new framework presented by Israel.”
Throughout the day, no direct negotiation meetings were held. Instead, the small security cabinet is set to convene this evening to discuss the state of the talks.
There is also speculation of a potential meeting between Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and US President Donald Trump to address the impasse and broader regional dynamics.
In parallel, Arab diplomats have reportedly issued a warning to Israel regarding its plan to construct a “humanitarian city” in Gaza. According to sources, diplomats cautioned that the initiative could harm the fragile fabric of the Abraham Accords and inflame regional tensions.
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Iran: ‘Israel Will Pay the Price’ for Allegedly Trying to Kill Pezeshkian
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian delivers a speech during the National Army Day parade ceremony in Tehran, Iran, April 18, 2025. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
i24 News – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was slightly injured in the leg during an Israeli airstrike, according to a report on Sunday by the Iranian news agency Fars, prompting Iran to launch a widespread probe to root out suspected moles that infiltrated the Islamic Republic’s highest ranks.
Al Jazeera cited an unnamed Iranian official who said, “The assassination attempt on President Pezeshkian will not go unanswered – Israel will pay the price.”
According to Fars, which has ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the attack took place on the morning of Monday, June 16, while a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council was held on the lower floors of a building in western Tehran. In addition to the Iranian president, Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the head of the judiciary Mohseni Ajei, as well as other senior regime officials were attending this meeting.
Six bombs or missiles targeted the entry and exit points of the building in order to block evacuation routes and disrupt air circulation, the report said. This operation is said to have been inspired by the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last year. Following the explosions, power was cut on that floor, but the leaders managed to escape through an emergency exit prepared in advance.
Pezeshkian and several other officials sustained minor leg injuries during the evacuation, according to the agency. Given the accuracy of the information used in the attack, the media outlet reports that authorities are investigating the possibility of collaboration with Israel.
Official confirmation and reactions
A few days earlier, a high-ranking military leader in the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaei, had stated on state television that Israel had “attacked six locations where the Supreme National Security Council had gathered, but none of its members had suffered even minor injuries.”
Pezeshkian had previously accused Israel of having attempted to assassinate him. “They tried, yes,” he told American journalist Tucker Carlson during an interview last week. “They acted accordingly, but they failed.”
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Hezbollah Violates Ceasefire 7 Times a Day on Average, IDF Figures Show
A drone view of buildings in Lebanon, next to the Israel-Lebanon border, following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah, as seen from Metula in northern Israel, Dec. 2, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ilan Rosenberg
i24 News – The Shiite jihadists of Hezbollah violate the ceasefire agreement with Israel more than seven times a day on average, according to Israel Defense Forces data obtained by i24NEWS and made public for the first time on Saturday.
Israel has flagged upward of 1,200 violations by Hezbollah in its report to the US-led five-country monitoring panel tasked with supervising the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.
Of these, 650 violations were relayed to the Lebanese army for handling, while the rest of the times the IDF responded by attacking the violators.
The Lebanese army has identified 390 additional violations on its own initiative and filed a report saying that it had handled them.
Thus official data shows that the Lebanese army handled 52% of all violations, and 440 of the targets Israel flagged by Israel.
The majority of the infractions the Lebanese army manages to stem are concentrated in the south of the country.
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