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The 5 Biggest Miscalculations the Iranian Regime Made
FILE PHOTO: A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit bomber takes off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam January 11, 2018. Picture taken January 11, 2018. U.S. Air Force/Airman 1st Class Gerald Willis/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran surprised some. Here are the five main miscalculations the Iranian regime made that led to this point. The Iranian regime has seen its miscalculations surface in layers, like the peeling of an onion. Though no one can predict the future and some things remain unclear, it is important to examine five mistakes.
1. Iran’s leaders thought Trump was bluffing and wouldn’t attack directly.
President Trump was not lying when he said he didn’t want to start new wars. Perhaps military action could have been prevented if Iran’s leaders offered inspections, negotiated in good faith, and were ready to seriously constrict uranium enrichment.
Many news reports and podcasts made the regime think the isolationist wing of Trump’s power base had his ear, and the public would fear attacks on US servicemen in the region so much it would be too costly to attack. Trump did kill General Qassem Soleimani in his first term, but he didn’t go further. The stealth B-2 bombers that dropped the huge bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities cost more than $2 billion each, and the regime may have thought Trump would be risk averse to seeing them shot down. While it is extremely difficult to take down B-2 planes, seeing that no Israeli planes were shot down and Iran’s defenses were weakened likely emboldened Trump.
2. Iran’s leaders thought proxies and “allies” would make them bulletproof.
With the well-armed Hezbollah, the Houthis disrupting shipping routes, Hamas in Gaza, and Iranian proxy forces in Syria, Tehran thought Israel and the US would be too scared to attack it directly.
Iran never imagined Hezbollah’s power would be reduced so quickly, it did not expect the Syrian government to fall in the way that it did, and it did not expect to see Hamas and the Houthis so weakened. The Iranian regime, which assisted Russia in its war against Ukraine with drones, and provides a huge amount of oil to China, also imagined the potential threat of Russia or China coming to its aid might scare off any significant attack. There remains a possibility that China, North Korea, or Russia could get involved militarily — but it is unlikely. More likely the Houthis will resume firing missiles.
3. Iran misunderstood the larger ramifications of the attacks of October 7.
Seeing great schisms in Israel over the judicial reform issue, Iran hoped Israel would implode after October 7 — or at the very least, see the ousting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iran likely believed that the information and PR campaign against Israel — falsely calling it a genocidal entity — would weaken it and make Israel too afraid to make bold moves. Instead, it made the Israeli public united on the need to take the threat of Iran seriously and be more proactive.
4. Iran underestimated the Mossad and Shin Bet, Israel’s security services.
It was a huge blow that Israel, said to have the best security services in the world, did not know Hamas was going to attack when it did on October 7, 2023.
But for the Mossad to be able to not only kill numerous Iranian generals at the same time, but deploy drones and other equipment on Iranian soil likely took the regime (and the level of infiltration Israel has achieved) by surprise. Iran not only underestimated the Mossad’s ability, but it likely didn’t understand its brutality against its citizens would allow the Mossad to get Iranian assets so consistently on the ground.
5. Iran though Israel’s muted response in 2024 meant it would not be more aggressive.
In April and October of 2024, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel. The Jewish State responded by weakening Iran’s air defenses, but it did not go after any major installations. It is quite possible that the regime felt that since Israel did not become more aggressive, it was a sign that the Jewish State wouldn’t risk a major direct attack. But as we’ve seen, they were very, very wrong.
The author is a writer based in New York.
The post The 5 Biggest Miscalculations the Iranian Regime Made first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israel Pounds Gaza City Suburbs, Vows to Press on with Offensive
Smoke rises following an Israeli strike, in Gaza City, August 24, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas
Israeli planes and tanks pounded the eastern and northern outskirts of Gaza City overnight Saturday to Sunday, destroying buildings and homes, residents said, as Israeli leaders vowed to press on with a planned offensive on the city.
Witnesses reported the sound of explosions non-stop overnight in the areas of Zeitoun and Shejaia, while tanks shelled houses and roads in the nearby Sabra neighborhood and several buildings were blown up in the northern town of Jabalia.
Fire lit the skies from the direction of the explosions, causing panic, prompting some families to stream out of the city. Others said they would prefer to die and not leave.
The Israeli military said on Sunday that its forces have returned to combat in the Jabalia area in recent days, to dismantle militant tunnels and strengthen control of the area.
It added that the operation there “enables the expansion of combat into additional areas and prevents Hamas terrorists from returning to operate in these areas.”
Israel approved a plan this month to seize control of Gaza City, describing it as the last bastion of Hamas. It is not expected to begin for a few weeks, leaving room for mediators Egypt and Qatar to try and resume ceasefire talks.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz on Sunday vowed to press on with the offensive on the city where famine has been declared, which has raised alarm abroad and objections at home. Katz has said that Gaza City will be razed unless Hamas agrees to end the war on Israel’s terms and release all hostages.
Hamas said in a statement on Sunday that Israel’s plan to take over Gaza City showed it wasn’t serious about a ceasefire.
It said a ceasefire agreement was “the only way to return the hostages,” holding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responsible for their lives.
The proposal on the table calls for a 60-day ceasefire and the release of 10 living hostages held in Gaza and of 18 bodies. In turn, Israel would release about 200 long-serving Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
Once a temporary ceasefire begins, the proposal is for Hamas and Israel to begin negotiations on a permanent ceasefire that would include the return of the remaining hostages.
On Thursday, Netanyahu said that Israel would immediately resume negotiations for the release of all 50 hostages – of whom Israel believes around 20 are still living – and an end to the nearly two-year-old war but on terms acceptable to Israel.
‘HUNGRY AND AFRAID’
Around half of the enclave’s two million people currently live in Gaza City. A few thousand have already left, carrying their belongings on vehicles and rickshaws.
“I stopped counting the times I had to take my wife and three daughters and leave my home in Gaza City,” said Mohammad, 40, via a chat app. “No place is safe, but I can’t take the risk. If they suddenly begin the invasion, they will use heavy fire.”
Others said they will not leave, no matter what.
“We are not leaving, let them bomb us at home,” said Aya, 31, who has a family of eight, adding that they couldn’t afford to buy a tent or pay for the transportation, even if they did try to leave. “We are hungry, afraid and don’t have money.”
A global hunger monitor said on Friday that Gaza City and surrounding areas are officially suffering from famine that will likely spread. Israel has rejected the assessment and says it ignores steps it has taken since late July to increase aid.
The war began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led gunmen burst into southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mainly civilians, and taking 251 hostages.
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Iran Signals Willingness to Scale Back Uranium Enrichment to Ease Tensions
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
i24 News – Iran may be prepared to significantly reduce its uranium enrichment levels in a bid to stave off renewed UN sanctions and limit the risk of further strikes by Israel and the United States, according to a report published Sunday in The Telegraph.
Citing Iranian sources, the paper said Tehran is considering lowering enrichment from 60% to 20%.
The move is reportedly being championed by Ali Larijani, the newly appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who is holding talks with regime leaders.
“Larijani is trying to convince the system to reduce the level of enrichment in order to avoid further war,” a senior Iranian official told the paper.
The proposal, however, faces stiff resistance from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has long opposed concessions on the nuclear program. Still, the report suggests Iran’s leadership may be open to greater flexibility, including the possibility of reviving engagement with Western powers.
Last month, i24NEWS reported exclusively that a delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to travel to Iran. The team of technical experts would seek to resume monitoring of nuclear sites, inspections that have been heavily restricted in recent years.
The development comes amid mounting regional tensions and could represent a critical turning point in the long-running nuclear standoff.
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Major Brush Fire Erupts Near Jerusalem, Evacuations Underway
A view of the new Tel Aviv-Jerusalem fast train seen over the HaArazim Valley (“Valley of Cedars”) just outside of Jerusalem, Sept. 25, 2018. Photo: Yossi Zamir/Flash90.
i24 News – A large brush fire broke out Sunday in the Cedars Valley area, near Route 1 and the Motza interchange, prompting an emergency response from Jerusalem district fire services. Several water-bombing planes were dispatched, and authorities have declared a “fire emergency.”
As a precaution, residents of Mevaseret Zion are being evacuated. Access to the town from Route 1 has already been blocked, and officials are weighing a full closure of the major highway.
Fire crews from the Ha’uma station are on site working to contain the flames, while motorists in the area are urged to heed traffic updates and follow instructions from emergency services.
Eight firefighting aircraft are currently operating above the blaze in support of ground teams. The fire comes amid one of the hottest, driest summers on record, with conditions fueling a series of destructive wildfires across the country.
Officials warn the situation remains critical, as the blaze threatens a vital transportation corridor leading into Jerusalem.