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The Fall of Assad: Israel’s Fragile Advantage
An Israeli tank crosses the ceasefire line between Syria and the Israeli Golan Heights, Dec. 11, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Avi Ohayon
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a turning point in the decades-long Syrian civil war, has set the stage for a drastically different Middle East. While many see Assad’s defeat as a blow to Iranian influence and a big win for Israel, the reality is far more complex and disheartening.
For years, Assad’s regime was a predictable enemy of Israel. While it engaged in occasional attacks and supported groups like Hezbollah, Assad carefully avoided provoking full-scale conflict with the Jewish State. His regime maintained a level of control over Syrian territory, limiting the ability of extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda to operate freely. This control allowed for relative stability on Israel’s northern border.
The rebel group now dominating Syria risks replacing the predictable relationships under Assad with widespread chaos. This shift introduces not just unpredictability but also direct security threats for Israel, undermining the assumption that Assad’s downfall is a victory for the Jewish State.
With Assad’s downfall, the country is no longer a singular nation but a fractured region with competing Islamist groups, many of which harbor deep animosity toward Israel. The most prominent group to emerge is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), currently designated as a terrorist organization, rooted in Al-Qaeda’s ideology.
HTS, founded initially as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2012, became Al-Qaeda’s official partner in Syria before later distancing itself from the group to broaden its appeal. Many argue, however, that its leadership and ideology remain firmly tied to Al-Qaeda’s global jihadist movement.
By 2022, HTS had control over significant parts of Syria’s northwest, particularly in the Idlib province, with a fighting force estimated at over 30,000.
HTS has made no secret of its hostility toward Israel. Recently, its leadership has issued repeated threats, calling for the liberation of Jerusalem and vowing to target Israeli territory. While the group’s primary focus remains on consolidating power in Syria, its anti-Israel rhetoric raises concerns about future confrontations, significantly as the group expands its presence near the Golan Heights.
Under Assad, terrorist activity from Syria into Israel was minimal due to the regime’s tight border control. However, the current disorganization in Syria has opened opportunities for groups like Al-Qaeda to exploit the instability.
In 2023 alone, Israeli forces intercepted at least two smuggling attempts involving weapons and explosives along the Syrian border, underscoring the growing threat.
HTS’ takeover of Syria raises the likelihood of increased cross-border violence.
The Jordanian military, which has successfully conducted counterterrorism operations against ISIS and other extremist factions, now faces the challenge of monitoring an increasingly unstable border with Syria. A 2022 report by the Jordanian Armed Forces highlighted a surge in smuggling incidents along the Syrian border, many involving drugs and weapons trafficked by groups like the HTS.
For Israel, a destabilized Jordan is a matter of significant concern. Jordan remains one of Israel’s most cooperative neighbors, with both nations sharing a peace treaty since 1994. If HTS succeeds in undermining Jordan’s security, it could disrupt this vital alliance and force Israel to reallocate military resources, further straining its defense capabilities amid rising threats on other fronts.
The United States has adopted a cautious approach to Syria. The absence of the US has left Israel alone in managing the results of Syria’s collapse, forcing it to rely on military actions like airstrikes against military targets within Syria. These strikes, while effective in the short term, risk escalating tensions and drawing Israel into broader conflicts.
Despite the challenges, the fragmentation of Syria does offer some short-term advantages for Israel. Traditional adversaries, like Hezbollah, have been weakened. Yet, these gains are unlikely to last; the rise of extremist groups like HTS poses a long-term danger that could surpass the challenges presented by Assad’s regime.
The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the end of an era but does not guarantee stability or security for Israel. Instead, it brings in a period of heightened uncertainty, where new threats emerge. While Israel may not face immediate danger from the new Syrian regime, there is a serious potential for future conflict.
Israel’s challenge is to adapt swiftly to this new reality, reorganizing its military and diplomatic strategies to address both immediate risks and long-term threats. As the region reshapes itself, support for Israel will be crucial in ensuring its security and maintaining this pillar of democracy in an increasingly radicalized Middle East.
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Israel to Send Delegation to Qatar for Gaza Ceasefire Talks
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference in Jerusalem, Sept. 2, 2024. Photo: Ohad Zwigenberg/Pool via REUTERS
Israel has decided to send a delegation to Qatar for talks on a possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, an Israeli official said, reviving hopes of a breakthrough in negotiations to end the almost 21-month war.
Palestinian group Hamas said on Friday it had responded to a US-backed Gaza ceasefire proposal in a “positive spirit,” a few days after US President Donald Trump said Israel had agreed “to the necessary conditions to finalize” a 60-day truce.
The Israeli negotiation delegation will fly to Qatar on Sunday, the Israeli official, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters.
But in a sign of the potential challenges still facing the two sides, a Palestinian official from a militant group allied with Hamas said concerns remained over humanitarian aid, passage through the Rafah crossing in southern Israel to Egypt and clarity over a timetable for Israeli troop withdrawals.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is due to meet Trump in Washington on Monday, has yet to comment on Trump’s announcement, and in their public statements Hamas and Israel remain far apart.
Netanyahu has repeatedly said Hamas must be disarmed, a position the terrorist group, which is thought to be holding 20 living hostages, has so far refused to discuss.
Israeli media said on Friday that Israel had received and was reviewing Hamas’ response to the ceasefire proposal.
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Tucker Carlson Says to Air Interview with President of Iran
Tucker Carlson speaks on July 18, 2024 during the final day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Photo: Jasper Colt-USA TODAY via Reuters Connect
US conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson said in an online post on Saturday that he had conducted an interview with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which would air in the next day or two.
Carlson said the interview was conducted remotely through a translator, and would be published as soon as it was edited, which “should be in a day or two.”
Carlson said he had stuck to simple questions in the interview, such as, “What is your goal? Do you seek war with the United States? Do you seek war with Israel?”
“There are all kinds of questions that I didn’t ask the president of Iran, particularly questions to which I knew I could get an not get an honest answer, such as, ‘was your nuclear program totally disabled by the bombing campaign by the US government a week and a half ago?’” he said.
Carlson also said he had made a third request in the past several months to interview Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who will be visiting Washington next week for talks with US President Donald Trump.
Trump said on Friday he would discuss Iran with Netanyahu at the White House on Monday.
Trump said he believed Tehran’s nuclear program had been set back permanently by recent US strikes that followed Israel’s attacks on the country last month, although Iran could restart it at a different location.
Trump also said Iran had not agreed to inspections of its nuclear program or to give up enriching uranium. He said he would not allow Tehran to resume its nuclear program, adding that Iran did want to meet with him.
Pezeshkian said last month Iran does not intend to develop nuclear weapons but will pursue its right to nuclear energy and research.
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Hostage Families Reject Partial Gaza Seal, Demand Release of All Hostages
Demonstrators hold signs and pictures of hostages, as relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages kidnapped during the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas protest demanding the release of all hostages in Tel Aviv, Israel, Feb. 13, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Itai Ron
i24 News – As Israeli leaders weigh the contours of a possible partial ceasefire deal with Hamas, the families of the 50 hostages still held in Gaza issued an impassioned public statement this weekend, condemning any agreement that would return only some of the abductees.
In a powerful message released Saturday, the Families Forum for the Return of Hostages denounced what they call the “beating system” and “cruel selection process,” which, they say, has left families trapped in unbearable uncertainty for 638 days—not knowing whether to hope for reunion or prepare for mourning.
The group warned that a phased or selective deal—rumored to be under discussion—would deepen their suffering and perpetuate injustice. Among the 50 hostages, 22 are believed to be alive, and 28 are presumed dead.
“Every family deserves answers and closure,” the Forum said. “Whether it is a return to embrace or a grave to mourn over—each is sacred.”
They accused the Israeli government of allowing political considerations to prevent a full agreement that could have brought all hostages—living and fallen—home long ago. “It is forbidden to conform to the dictates of Schindler-style lists,” the statement read, invoking a painful historical parallel.
“All of the abductees could have returned for rehabilitation or burial months ago, had the government chosen to act with courage.”
The call for a comprehensive deal comes just as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares for high-stakes talks in Washington and as indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are expected to resume in Doha within the next 24 hours, according to regional media reports.
Hamas, for its part, issued a statement Friday confirming its readiness to begin immediate negotiations on the implementation of a ceasefire and hostage release framework.
The Forum emphasized that every day in captivity poses a mortal risk to the living hostages, and for the deceased, a danger of being lost forever. “The horror of selection does not spare any of us,” the statement said. “Enough with the separation and categories that deepen the pain of the families.”
In a planned public address near Begin Gate in Tel Aviv, families are gathering Saturday evening to demand that the Israeli government accept a full-release deal—what they describe as the only “moral and Zionist” path forward.
“We will return. We will avenge,” the Forum concluded. “This is the time to complete the mission.”
As of now, the Israeli government has not formally responded to Hamas’s latest statement.
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