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The War in Gaza and the Implications for Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean
The war with Hamas in Gaza, and the clashes in the north against Hezbollah, are inevitably affecting both the regional and global energy markets. Uncertainty is not good for economic markets, especially the energy sector. There have not yet been significant increases in oil prices, and natural gas prices have risen only marginally — but no major new deals are being made because the global energy market is waiting and watching, or showing “cautious nervousness.” This is mainly because there are still high quantities of gas available in the market. Europe has managed to overcome the lack of gas from Russia with supply from other sources (mainly liquified gas from the US and elsewhere), and European emergency stores are almost completely full.
Few have yet compared the current energy situation in the Middle East to the oil embargo surrounding the Yom Kippur War in 1973. A couple of weeks ago, the Iranian Minister of Energy called for a similar boycott at the gathering of the Islamic Conference in Saudi Arabia, but as expected, his call went unanswered.
With that said, the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean is complex. The Israeli Ministry of Energy’s October 9 instruction to Chevron to temporarily halt gas production in the Tamar field did not materially affect the local energy market. Chevron announced that it was able to compensate for the lack of gas from Tamar with other fields, both for the Israeli market and for the export markets in Egypt and Jordan. However, the situation could become more difficult as the fighting continues, especially if it escalates to include additional arenas.
It is important to keep an eye on this, especially with regard to the possible consequences for Egypt. Egypt is facing a shortage of natural gas for the local market that has led to power outages from time to time. Moreover, its dire economic situation necessitates the flow of gas from Israel — both for the domestic market and no less importantly for export in order to bring foreign currency into the depleted Egyptian treasury. Present estimations indicate a sharp decrease of gas export to Egypt of around 70%(!). This could have serious internal and regional political consequences. The angry reaction of President Sisi to what was interpreted as an Israeli attempt to evacuate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip into Sinai reflected his concern about both Egypt’s poor economic position and the strategic implications of the Gaza problem being pushed into Egypt’s front yard. A few days ago, fuel prices in Egypt increased by about 15%, but the government said it will not raise the price of basic products. Egypt’s worsening economic situation should be of considerable concern to the region and beyond.
An equally interesting arena is Lebanon. The drilling by the Total company in Block 9 did not yield positive results. Although no official announcement was made by the Lebanese Ministry of Energy, reports indicate that no gas was found. This is a fairly common result in the energy sector, as gas often fails to be found with the first drilling. But in view of Lebanon’s current economic and political circumstances, this is not good news. Reports indicate that the Lebanese government is trying to convince the relevant companies to drill in Block 8 to preserve “energy momentum”. In the present circumstances, with clashes between Hezbollah and Israel taking place, the energy angle is naturally being sidelined, but it will be very important later.
In the Cypriot arena, Chevron submitted an up-to-date action plan to the government regarding the Aphrodite gas field, including its intention to export the gas to Egypt. The government responded with reservations. The dispute has not yet been settled, though it probably will be in the next couple of months. The Israeli angle concerning this field is not clear (there is a dispute regarding the Israeli portion of this field), but when Chevron decides to proceed with Aphrodite, a means will likely be found to settle this angle as well.
In addition, the Italian company ENI is expected to drill in another field with positive potential in Cypriot waters at the beginning of next year.
There is uncertainty regarding the Turkish position on Cypriot energy potential. It should be expected that if Chevron takes practical steps in the Aphrodite field, Ankara will respond. Although the atmosphere between Turkey and Greece is improving, this is mainly on the bilateral level between those two countries. Cyprus is another matter. Intriguingly, however, the Turkish Foreign Minister made a statement in which he suggested finding a way to share the gas between Greek-Cypriots and Turkish-Cypriots even in the absence of a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem. Is this a serious idea? Will it be possible to motivate all the parties to take such a creative and pragmatic step? Time will tell, but clearly the Israeli-Lebanese maritime agreement has spurred some creativity about other conflicts in the region.
For the time being, the war in Gaza has not created too many waves in either the regional energy sector or the global one. However, the uncertainty will increase as the crisis continues, especially against the background of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip. Escalation in the Lebanese arena would further exacerbate the situation. It is important to stress that although there is no apparent shortage of natural gas in the world market, and although it is to be expected that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners will adopt a responsible policy in this regard concerning oil, ongoing instability could have a negative effect on the energy sector. Obviously, Washington is aware of this and is paying close attention. Israel needs to do the same because of the strategic implications for the region.
Interestingly enough, the Cypriot Energy Minister stated on November 8 that the war might provide an impetus to plans for a pipeline conveying offshore natural gas to Cyprus for processing and shipping to foreign markets. He added that energy cooperation between Israel and Turkey might have fallen by the wayside given Turkey’s increasingly harsh criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza. While it is too early to assess the implications of the war for Israel’s plans for another export option for its natural gas, lessons should be taken the day after.
Ambassador (ret.) Michael Harari joined the Israeli Foreign Ministry and served more than 30 years in a range of diplomatic roles in Israel and abroad, including (among others) in Cairo, London and Nicosia. His final position abroad was as Israeli Ambassador to Cyprus (2010-2015). Today he serves as a consultant in the fields of strategy, policy and energy and lectures in the Political Science Department at the Jezreel Valley College. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Netanyahu Says Ready to Implement Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire, Biden Announces Truce to Begin Wednesday
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday he was ready to implement a ceasefire deal with Lebanon and would respond forcefully to any violation by Hezbollah, declaring Israel would retain “complete military freedom of action.”
In a television address, Netanyahu said he would put the ceasefire accord to his full cabinet later in the evening. The more restricted security cabinet had earlier approved the deal by a majority of 10 ministers to one.
“Israel appreciates the US contribution to the process, and reserves the right to act against any threat to its security,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement.
The accord was brokered by the United States and France and was expected to take effect on Wednesday.
“We will enforce the agreement and respond forcefully to any violation. Together, we will continue until victory,” Netanyahu said in his television address.
Netanyahu said there were three reasons to pursue a ceasefire: to focus on the threat from Iran, which backs the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah; replenish depleted arms supplies and give the army a rest; and to isolate Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that triggered war in the region when it attacked Israel from Gaza last Oct. 7.
“In full coordination with the United States, we retain complete military freedom of action. Should Hezbollah violate the agreement or attempt to rearm, we will strike decisively.”
Netanyahu said Hezbollah — which wields significant political and military influence across Lebanon and is allied to Hamas, another Iran-backed Islamist group — was considerably weaker than it had been at the start of the conflict.
“We have set it back decades, eliminated … its top leaders, destroyed most of its rockets and missiles, neutralized thousands of fighters, and obliterated years of terror infrastructure near our border,” he said.
“We targeted strategic objectives across Lebanon, shaking Beirut to its core.”
US President Joe Biden was set to deliver remarks at the White House at 2:30 pm EST (1930 GMT).
ISRAEL RAMPS UP AIRSTRIKES
Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, hostilities raged as Israel dramatically ramped up its campaign of airstrikes in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, with health authorities reporting at least 18 killed.
There was no indication that a truce in Lebanon would hasten a ceasefire and hostage-release deal in Gaza, where Israel is battling Hamas.
The Lebanon ceasefire agreement requires Israeli troops to withdraw from south Lebanon and Lebanon’s army to deploy in the region, officials say. Hezbollah would end its armed presence along the border south of the Litani River.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the Lebanese army would be ready to have at least 5,000 troops deployed in southern Lebanon as Israeli troops withdraw, and that the United States could play a role in rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by Israeli strikes.
Not everyone in Israel supports a ceasefire. Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a right-wing member of Netanyahu’s government, said on social-media platform X the agreement does not ensure the return of Israelis to their homes in the country’s north and that the Lebanese army did not have the ability to overcome Hezbollah.
“In order to leave Lebanon, we must have our own security belt,” Ben-Gvir said.
Israel demands effective UN enforcement of an eventual ceasefire with Lebanon and will show “zero tolerance” toward any infraction, Defense Minister Israel Katz said earlier on Tuesday.
In the hours before the announcement, Israeli strikes smashed more of Beirut’s densely-populated southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold. The Israeli military said one barrage of strikes had hit 20 targets in the city in just 120 seconds, killing at least seven people and injuring 37, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.
Israel issued its biggest evacuation warning yet, telling civilians to leave 20 locations. Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the air force was conducting a “widespread attack” on Hezbollah targets across the city.
The Iran-backed Hezbollah has kept up rocket fire into Israel.
Israel has dealt Hezbollah massive blows since going on the offensive against the group in September, killing its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders, and pounding areas of Lebanon where the group holds sway.
Over the past year, more than 3,750 people have been killed in Lebanon and over one million have been forced from their homes, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures.
Hezbollah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli authorities.
Hezbollah has been launching barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones at northern Israel from neighboring Lebanon almost daily since Oct. 8 of last year, one day after Hamas’s invasion of the Jewish state from Gaza to the south.
The relentless attacks from Hezbollah have forced tens of thousands of Israelis to flee their homes in the north, and Israel has pledged to ensure their safe return.
Israel had been exchanging fire with Hezbollah before drastically escalating its military operations over the last two months, seeking to push the terrorist army further away from the border with Lebanon.
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US Islamic Group CAIR Ordered by Federal Judge to Reveal Funding Sources
The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) has been ordered by a US federal judge to reveal its funding sources, potentially opening up the controversial group, some of whose leadership had early connections with organizations linked to Hamas, to further scrutiny.
US Magistrate Judge David Schultz ordered CAIR to open its books following an unsuccessful attempt to countersue a former employee for defamation, the New York Post first reported on Monday night. Schultz asserted that information regarding the organization’s financial history and assets were within “scope of permissible discovery.”
CAIR originally filed a lawsuit against former chapter leader Lori Saroya, accusing the ex-employee of engaging in “defamation” against the organization by exposing its alleged ties to terrorist groups and funding by foreign governments. After CAIR eventually dropped its lawsuit in January 2022, Saroya slapped the organization with a lawsuit of her own, accusing the group of defaming her character.
Saroya’s lawyer, Jeffrey Robbins, told the Post that CAIR will be forced to “turn over evidence about everything from fundraising practices, such as having raised money from foreign sources and concealed it; whether it deceived donors; whether it mismanaged donor money; whether it retaliated against employees or threatened to retaliate against employees for raising concerns about sexual harassment or the like.”
Shultz, a Minnesota district judge, cited how the organization claimed that its former employee “falsely implied CAIR received funding from foreign governments and terrorists when she stated CAIR accepted ‘international funding through their Washington Trust Foundation.’”
The judge asserted that “discovery into these matters is proportionate to the needs of the case.”
CAIR has long been a controversial organization. In the 2000s, it was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land Foundation terrorism financing case. Politico noted in 2010 that “US District Court Judge Jorge Solis found that the government presented ‘ample evidence to establish the association’” of CAIR with Hamas.
According to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), “some of CAIR’s current leadership had early connections with organizations that are or were affiliated with Hamas.” CAIR has disputed the accuracy of the ADL’s claim and asserted that it “unequivocally condemn[s] all acts of terrorism, whether carried out by al-Qa’ida, the Real IRA, FARC, Hamas, ETA, or any other group designated by the US Department of State as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization.’”
CAIR leaders have also found themselves been embroiled in further controversy since Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7.
The head of CAIR, for example, said he was “happy” to witness Hamas’s rampage of rape, murder, and kidnapping of Israelis in what was the largest single-day slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.
“The people of Gaza only decided to break the siege — the walls of the concentration camp — on Oct. 7,” CAIR co-founder and executive director Nihad Awad said in a speech during the American Muslims for Palestine convention in Chicago last November. “And yes, I was happy to see people breaking the siege and throwing down the shackles of their own land, and walk free into their land, which they were not allowed to walk in.”
Awad was referring to the blockade that Israel and Egypt enforced on Gaza after Hamas took control of the Palestinian enclave in 2007, to prevent the terrorist group from importing weapons and other materials and equipment for attacks.
About a week later, the executive director of CAIR’s Los Angeles office, Hussam Ayloush, said that Israel “does not have the right” to defend itself from Palestinian violence. He added in his sermon at the Islamic Society of Greater Oklahoma City that for the Palestinians, “every single day” since the Jewish state’s establishment has been comparable to Hamas’s Oct. 7 onslaught.
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Massachusetts Man Pleads Guilty to Threatening to Kill Jews, Bomb Synagogues
The US Department of Justice has secured the conviction of a Massachusetts man who threatened to perpetrate mass killings of Jews, according to a new announcement by the agency.
Over several months, John Reardon, 59, called Jewish institutions across Massachusetts, proclaiming that he would kill Jewish men, women, and children in their houses of worship. His terroristic menacing included promises to plant bombs in synagogues in the cities of Sharon and Attleboro, as well as making 98 calls to the Israeli Consulate in Boston, a behavior which began on Oct. 7, 2023 and ended just days before his apprehension by law enforcement in January.
Reardon has declined to contest the federal government’s case against him and pled guilty on Monday to stalking, threatening “force” to obstruct religious freedom, and transmitting threats “in interstate commerce.” He faces up to 30 years in prison and $750,000 in fines.
“This defendant’s threats to bomb synagogues and kill Jewish children stoked fear in the hearts of congregants at a time when Jews are already facing a disturbing increase in threats,” US Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement. “No person and no community in this country should have to live in fear of hate-fueled violence. The Justice Department is committed to using the full force of our investigative and prosecutorial authorities to root out these threats and ensure that all people are protected in the expression of their faith.”
FBI Boston Field Special Agent in Charge Jodi Cohen added, “When John Reardon threatened to kill members of the Jewish community and bomb places of worship, the FBI and our partners immediately mobilized. After all, you cannon call and threaten people with violent physical harm and not face repercussions. People of all races and faiths deserve to feel safe in their communities. With today’s guilty plea, John Reardon is now a convicted felon.”
Reardon’s conviction came amid a record surge in anti-Jewish hate crimes across the US following the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, amid the ensuing war in Gaza.
Earlier this month, for example, law enforcement officials convicted a white supremacist who repeatedly vandalized a synagogue in Eugene, Oregon during spree of hate in 2023.
Motivated by antisemitism, Adam Edward Braun, 34, graffitied the Temple Beth Israel synagogue twice in September 2023, spraying “1377” for its resemblance to “1488,” a reference to Adolf Hitler and a white nationalist slogan. He came back several months later to vandalize the glazing of the synagogue’s entrance. However, he abandoned that activity after spotting a surveillance camera and opted to graffiti “white power” elsewhere on the grounds.
In addition to prison, Braun faces a maximum $100,000 fine, the total amount of which will be determined when he is sentenced in February by US District Court Judge Michael J. McShane. He has agreed to “pay restitution in full to the victim.”
In late September, federal prosecutors helped convict a gunman who shot two Jewish men as they exited a synagogue in Los Angeles.
Jaime Tran, 30 — an affiliate of the “Goyim Defense League” hate group — had gone on an antisemitic shooting spree in February 2023, attempting to murder two Jewish men in the Pico-Robertson section of Los Angeles. Prior to the crimes, Tran called Jews “primitive” and told a former classmate, “Someone is going to kill you, Jew” and “I want you dead, Jew.” According to the Justice Department, he even described himself as a “ticking time bomb,” broadcasting his murderous ideation to all who knew him.
Tran pled guilty in June to four charges the Justice Department described as “hate crimes with intent to kill” and “using, carrying, and discharging a firearm” in the commission of an act of violence. His sentencing of 35 years ensures that he will not again be free until the year 2059.
“After two years of spewing antisemitic vitriol, the defendant planned and carried out a two-day attack attempting to murder Jews leaving synagogue in Los Angeles,” Garland said at the time. “Vile acts of antisemitic hatred endanger the safety of individuals and entire communities, and allowing such crimes to go unchecked endangers the foundation of our democracy itself.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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