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What Will Happen in Syria? The Truth Is — No One Knows
A person holds up a Syrian opposition flag, as people celebrate after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, December 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov
The story of Bashar al-Assad’s downfall actually begins shortly after October 7, 2023, when Israel’s “War Cabinet” adopted two official war goals: to dismantle Hamas’ military and political control in Gaza, and to bring the hostages home. Eleven months into the fighting, Israel stepped up its effort to achieve a third goal — returning Israel’s northern population safely to their homes. Less than six hours later, more than 3,000 pagers exploded throughout Lebanon.
Since that time, Israel has eviscerated Hezbollah; it has also degraded Hamas from a terror semi-state to a small scale insurgency group, and utterly humiliated Iran. Iran’s humiliation, which began when Israel disintegrated much of its terror proxy network, came to a dramatic conclusion when Israel entered Iranian airspace, destroyed its missile factories, and wiped out its entire, Russian-made air defense system.
Then, at 4am on November 26, the Lebanon “cease-fire” agreement began. Predictably, Hezbollah has been breaching the ceasefire ever since, but unlike in prior years, Israel is directly enforcing the agreement through military action, as permitted by the cease-fire’s terms.
Meanwhile, key players in Syria had been watching. Its president, Bashar al-Assad, had survived the Syrian civil war that began in 2011 — and he did so mainly through support from Russia and Iran, including an estimated 10,000 seasoned Hezbollah fighters.
In exchange, Assad provided both his patrons with access to the country, including turning Syria into one big Iranian highway for moving weapons to Hezbollah — primarily for use against Israel.
Now, however, Russia’s forces are being massively depleted by its invasion of Ukraine, Iran is weakened and far less feared after its shellacking at the hands of the IDF, and Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self. The various rebel groups in Syria, who had been contained but never defeated, took notice, and attacked.
Assad was overthrown on Sunday morning, primarily by radical Sunni extremists — many that have been linked to the ISIS and Al-Qaeda terror organizations in the past. A central core of those militants have rebranded themselves under the name “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS). HTS is backed primarily by Qatar and Turkey, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood. Unconfirmed reports allege that the US secretly supported HTS in exchange for a promise to not attack the US or Israel, though history shows that such promises from terror groups are rarely reliable. HTS has publicly said it renounced terrorism, and seeks a free Syria.
Another group fighting in Syria is the so called “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF), a coalition of Kurds, Christians, and other minorities, connected with the PKK/YPG, a Kurdish militant group widely designated as a terror organization, with a Marxist, anti-US and anti-Western ideology. Nonetheless, the US has been backing the SDF for years — including with US troops — hoping that this will prevent the group from turning on the West, despite its violent ideology.
Meanwhile, Iraq has been absorbing many of the Shiite fighters fleeing Syria, raising the question of whether America’s plan to fully withdraw from Iraq by 2026 is wise under the circumstances. Iran, which had initially sent fighters to protect Assad, has since pulled out, and Hezbollah sent a small contingent of some 2,000 fighters, who proved mostly ineffective.
With the departure of Assad, Iran and Russia appear to have lost their influence in Syria, which is yet another blow to Iran’s proxy network, and at least in part a repercussion from Israel’s astounding military successes since October 7. Yet the forces taking over Syria are mostly the same violent Sunni terrorists who have been fighting for control of Syria since the Arab Spring in 2011. (Given that Iran and Russia were the only reasons Assad lasted in power so long — and slaughtered hundreds of thousands of people — it’s unlikely Syria’s new leaders will support Russia and Iran, but that’s definitely not a guarantee.)
Despite its astounding successes since October 7, Israel has not yet achieved its war goals: it is still not safe for Israelis to return to their homes in the North, Hamas still clings to a degree of control in Gaza, and some 100 hostages still remain in horrific captivity, either alive or dead.
Yet there is cause for optimism. Though the northern cease-fire agreement is technically between Israel and the government of Lebanon, it was also approved by Hezbollah, at least what’s left of it. The terror group, which had sworn to keep fighting until Israel left Gaza, has therefore stepped back from its promise, thus abandoning Hamas to its own devices. This blow to Hamas’ delusion of defeating Israel through a regional war, along with some fierce rhetoric by incoming President Donald Trump, has raised hopes of closing a deal to, at long last, bring home the some 100 Israeli hostages who remain in Hamas captivity.
Trump has also vowed to reinstate his campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran, which drastically reduced its influence in the region, and made it vulnerable to its own domestic population, much of which would like to overthrow the Islamic regime.
Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports out of Yemen indicate that the continued weakening of Iran may trigger an attempt by Saudi backed forces to overthrow the Houthi rebel group. Finally, here in Israel, we are optimistic that the Abraham Accords process will resume, beginning with Saudi Arabia and perhaps spreading across the more moderate parts of the Arab world.
In short, there are no “good guys” to root for in Syria, and there are no simple solutions to the challenges faced by Israel and the Western world. Yet Israel is significantly safer today than it was 14 months ago, and is now widely considered the preeminent power in the Middle East: by friends and enemies alike.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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Iranian Media Claims Obtaining ‘Sensitive’ Israeli Intelligence Materials
FILE PHOTO: The atomic symbol and the Iranian flag are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
i24 News – Iranian and Iran-affiliated media claimed on Saturday that the Islamic Republic had obtained a trove of “strategic and sensitive” Israeli intelligence materials related to Israel’s nuclear facilities and defense plans.
“Iran’s intelligence apparatus has obtained a vast quantity of strategic and sensitive information and documents belonging to the Zionist regime,” Iran’s state broadcaster said, referring to Israel in the manner accepted in those Muslim or Arab states that don’t recognize its legitimacy. The statement was also relayed by the Lebanese site Al-Mayadeen, affiliated with the Iran-backed jihadists of Hezbollah.
The reports did not include any details on the documents or how Iran had obtained them.
The intelligence reportedly included “thousands of documents related to that regime’s nuclear plans and facilities,” it added.
According to the reports, “the data haul was extracted during a covert operation and included a vast volume of materials including documents, images, and videos.”
The report comes amid high tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, over which it is in talks with the US administration of President Donald Trump.
Iranian-Israeli tensions reached an all-time high since the October 7 massacre and the subsequent Gaza war, including Iranian rocket fire on Israel and Israeli aerial raids in Iran that devastated much of the regime’s air defenses.
Israel, which regards the prospect of the antisemitic mullah regime obtaining a nuclear weapon as an existential threat, has indicated it could resort to a military strike against Iran’s installations should talks fail to curb uranium enrichment.
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Israel Retrieves Body of Thai Hostage from Gaza
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz looks on, amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, in Jerusalem, Nov. 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
The Israeli military has retrieved the body of a Thai hostage who had been held in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday.
Nattapong Pinta’s body was held by a Palestinian terrorist group called the Mujahedeen Brigades, and was recovered from the area of Rafah in southern Gaza, Katz said. His family in Thailand has been notified.
Pinta, an agricultural worker, was abducted from Kibbutz Nir Oz, a small Israeli community near the Gaza border where a quarter of the population was killed or taken hostage during the Hamas attack that triggered the devastating war in Gaza.
Israel’s military said Pinta had been abducted alive and killed by his captors, who had also killed and taken to Gaza the bodies of two more Israeli-American hostages that were retrieved earlier this week.
There was no immediate comment from the Mujahedeen Brigades, who have previously denied killing their captives, or from Hamas. The Israeli military said the Brigades were still holding the body of another foreign national. Only 20 of the 55 remaining hostages are believed to still be alive.
The Mujahedeen Brigades also held and killed Israeli hostage Shiri Bibas and her two young sons, according to Israeli authorities. Their bodies were returned during a two-month ceasefire, which collapsed in March after the two sides could not agree on terms for extending it to a second phase.
Israel has since expanded its offensive across the Gaza Strip as US, Qatari and Egyptian-led efforts to secure another ceasefire have faltered.
US-BACKED AID GROUP HALTS DISTRIBUTIONS
The United Nations has warned that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli blockade of the enclave, with the rate of young children suffering from acute malnutrition nearly tripling.
Aid distribution was halted on Friday after the US-and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said overcrowding had made it unsafe to continue operations. It was unclear whether aid had resumed on Saturday.
The GHF began distributing food packages in Gaza at the end of May, overseeing a new model of aid distribution which the United Nations says is neither impartial nor neutral. It says it has provided around 9 million meals so far.
The Israeli military said on Saturday that 350 trucks of humanitarian aid belonging to U.N. and other international relief groups were transferred this week via the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza.
The war erupted after Hamas-led terrorists took 251 hostages and killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, in the October 7, 2023 attack, Israel’s single deadliest day.
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US Mulls Giving Millions to Controversial Gaza Aid Foundation, Sources Say
Palestinians carry aid supplies which they received from the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in the central Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ramadan Abed/File Photo
The State Department is weighing giving $500 million to the new foundation providing aid to war-shattered Gaza, according to two knowledgeable sources and two former US officials, a move that would involve the US more deeply in a controversial aid effort that has been beset by violence and chaos.
The sources and former US officials, all of whom requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said that money for Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) would come from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is being folded into the US State Department.
The plan has met resistance from some US officials concerned with the deadly shootings of Palestinians near aid distribution sites and the competence of the GHF, the two sources said.
The GHF, which has been fiercely criticized by humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations, for an alleged lack of neutrality, began distributing aid last week amid warnings that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli aid blockade, which was lifted on May 19 when limited deliveries were allowed to resume.
The foundation has seen senior personnel quit and had to pause handouts twice this week after crowds overwhelmed its distribution hubs.
The State Department and GHF did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Reuters has been unable to establish who is currently funding the GHF operations, which began in Gaza last week. The GHF uses private US security and logistics companies to transport aid into Gaza for distribution at so-called secure distribution sites.
On Thursday, Reuters reported that a Chicago-based private equity firm, McNally Capital, has an “economic interest” in the for-profit US contractor overseeing the logistics and security of GHF’s aid distribution hubs in the enclave.
While US President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel say they don’t finance the GHF operation, both have been pressing the United Nations and international aid groups to work with it.
The US and Israel argue that aid distributed by a long-established U.N. aid network was diverted to Hamas. Hamas has denied that.
USAID has been all but dismantled. Some 80 percent of its programs have been canceled and its staff face termination as part of President Donald Trump’s drive to align US foreign policy with his “America First” agenda.
One source with knowledge of the matter and one former senior official said the proposal to give the $500 million to GHF has been championed by acting deputy USAID Administrator Ken Jackson, who has helped oversee the agency’s dismemberment.
The source said that Israel requested the funds to underwrite GHF’s operations for 180 days.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The two sources said that some US officials have concerns with the plan because of the overcrowding that has affected the aid distribution hubs run by GHF’s contractor, and violence nearby.
Those officials also want well-established non-governmental organizations experienced in running aid operations in Gaza and elsewhere to be involved in the operation if the State Department approves the funds for GHF, a position that Israel likely will oppose, the sources said.
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