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What Will Happen in Syria? The Truth Is — No One Knows
A person holds up a Syrian opposition flag, as people celebrate after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, December 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov
The story of Bashar al-Assad’s downfall actually begins shortly after October 7, 2023, when Israel’s “War Cabinet” adopted two official war goals: to dismantle Hamas’ military and political control in Gaza, and to bring the hostages home. Eleven months into the fighting, Israel stepped up its effort to achieve a third goal — returning Israel’s northern population safely to their homes. Less than six hours later, more than 3,000 pagers exploded throughout Lebanon.
Since that time, Israel has eviscerated Hezbollah; it has also degraded Hamas from a terror semi-state to a small scale insurgency group, and utterly humiliated Iran. Iran’s humiliation, which began when Israel disintegrated much of its terror proxy network, came to a dramatic conclusion when Israel entered Iranian airspace, destroyed its missile factories, and wiped out its entire, Russian-made air defense system.
Then, at 4am on November 26, the Lebanon “cease-fire” agreement began. Predictably, Hezbollah has been breaching the ceasefire ever since, but unlike in prior years, Israel is directly enforcing the agreement through military action, as permitted by the cease-fire’s terms.
Meanwhile, key players in Syria had been watching. Its president, Bashar al-Assad, had survived the Syrian civil war that began in 2011 — and he did so mainly through support from Russia and Iran, including an estimated 10,000 seasoned Hezbollah fighters.
In exchange, Assad provided both his patrons with access to the country, including turning Syria into one big Iranian highway for moving weapons to Hezbollah — primarily for use against Israel.
Now, however, Russia’s forces are being massively depleted by its invasion of Ukraine, Iran is weakened and far less feared after its shellacking at the hands of the IDF, and Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self. The various rebel groups in Syria, who had been contained but never defeated, took notice, and attacked.
Assad was overthrown on Sunday morning, primarily by radical Sunni extremists — many that have been linked to the ISIS and Al-Qaeda terror organizations in the past. A central core of those militants have rebranded themselves under the name “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS). HTS is backed primarily by Qatar and Turkey, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood. Unconfirmed reports allege that the US secretly supported HTS in exchange for a promise to not attack the US or Israel, though history shows that such promises from terror groups are rarely reliable. HTS has publicly said it renounced terrorism, and seeks a free Syria.
Another group fighting in Syria is the so called “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF), a coalition of Kurds, Christians, and other minorities, connected with the PKK/YPG, a Kurdish militant group widely designated as a terror organization, with a Marxist, anti-US and anti-Western ideology. Nonetheless, the US has been backing the SDF for years — including with US troops — hoping that this will prevent the group from turning on the West, despite its violent ideology.
Meanwhile, Iraq has been absorbing many of the Shiite fighters fleeing Syria, raising the question of whether America’s plan to fully withdraw from Iraq by 2026 is wise under the circumstances. Iran, which had initially sent fighters to protect Assad, has since pulled out, and Hezbollah sent a small contingent of some 2,000 fighters, who proved mostly ineffective.
With the departure of Assad, Iran and Russia appear to have lost their influence in Syria, which is yet another blow to Iran’s proxy network, and at least in part a repercussion from Israel’s astounding military successes since October 7. Yet the forces taking over Syria are mostly the same violent Sunni terrorists who have been fighting for control of Syria since the Arab Spring in 2011. (Given that Iran and Russia were the only reasons Assad lasted in power so long — and slaughtered hundreds of thousands of people — it’s unlikely Syria’s new leaders will support Russia and Iran, but that’s definitely not a guarantee.)
Despite its astounding successes since October 7, Israel has not yet achieved its war goals: it is still not safe for Israelis to return to their homes in the North, Hamas still clings to a degree of control in Gaza, and some 100 hostages still remain in horrific captivity, either alive or dead.
Yet there is cause for optimism. Though the northern cease-fire agreement is technically between Israel and the government of Lebanon, it was also approved by Hezbollah, at least what’s left of it. The terror group, which had sworn to keep fighting until Israel left Gaza, has therefore stepped back from its promise, thus abandoning Hamas to its own devices. This blow to Hamas’ delusion of defeating Israel through a regional war, along with some fierce rhetoric by incoming President Donald Trump, has raised hopes of closing a deal to, at long last, bring home the some 100 Israeli hostages who remain in Hamas captivity.
Trump has also vowed to reinstate his campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran, which drastically reduced its influence in the region, and made it vulnerable to its own domestic population, much of which would like to overthrow the Islamic regime.
Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports out of Yemen indicate that the continued weakening of Iran may trigger an attempt by Saudi backed forces to overthrow the Houthi rebel group. Finally, here in Israel, we are optimistic that the Abraham Accords process will resume, beginning with Saudi Arabia and perhaps spreading across the more moderate parts of the Arab world.
In short, there are no “good guys” to root for in Syria, and there are no simple solutions to the challenges faced by Israel and the Western world. Yet Israel is significantly safer today than it was 14 months ago, and is now widely considered the preeminent power in the Middle East: by friends and enemies alike.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post What Will Happen in Syria? The Truth Is — No One Knows first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Hamas Says No Interim Hostage Deal Possible Without Work Toward Permanent Ceasefire
Explosions send smoke into the air in Gaza, as seen from the Israeli side of the border, July 17, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
The spokesperson for Hamas’s armed wing said on Friday that while the Palestinian terrorist group favors reaching an interim truce in the Gaza war, if such an agreement is not reached in current negotiations it could revert to insisting on a full package deal to end the conflict.
Hamas has previously offered to release all the hostages held in Gaza and conclude a permanent ceasefire agreement, and Israel has refused, Abu Ubaida added in a televised speech.
Arab mediators Qatar and Egypt, backed by the United States, have hosted more than 10 days of talks on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day truce in the war.
Israeli officials were not immediately available for comment on the eve of the Jewish Sabbath.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on a call he had with Pope Leo on Friday that Israel‘s efforts to secure a hostage release deal and 60-day ceasefire “have so far not been reciprocated by Hamas.”
As part of the potential deal, 10 hostages held in Gaza would be returned along with the bodies of 18 others, spread out over 60 days. In exchange, Israel would release a number of detained Palestinians.
“If the enemy remains obstinate and evades this round as it has done every time before, we cannot guarantee a return to partial deals or the proposal of the 10 captives,” said Abu Ubaida.
Disputes remain over maps of Israeli army withdrawals, aid delivery mechanisms into Gaza, and guarantees that any eventual truce would lead to ending the war, said two Hamas officials who spoke to Reuters on Friday.
The officials said the talks have not reached a breakthrough on the issues under discussion.
Hamas says any agreement must lead to ending the war, while Netanyahu says the war will only end once Hamas is disarmed and its leaders expelled from Gaza.
Almost 1,650 Israelis and foreign nationals have been killed as a result of the conflict, including 1,200 killed in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel, according to Israeli tallies. Over 250 hostages were kidnapped during Hamas’s Oct. 7 onslaught.
Israel responded with an ongoing military campaign aimed at freeing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities in neighboring Gaza.
The post Hamas Says No Interim Hostage Deal Possible Without Work Toward Permanent Ceasefire first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran Marks 31st Anniversary of AMIA Bombing by Slamming Argentina’s ‘Baseless’ Accusations, Blaming Israel
People hold images of the victims of the 1994 bombing attack on the Argentine Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA) community center, marking the 30th anniversary of the attack, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, July 18, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Irina Dambrauskas
Iran on Friday marked the 31st anniversary of the 1994 bombing of the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish community center in Buenos Aires by slamming Argentina for what it called “baseless” accusations over Tehran’s alleged role in the terrorist attack and accusing Israel of politicizing the atrocity to influence the investigation and judicial process.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the anniversary of Argentina’s deadliest terrorist attack, which killed 85 people and wounded more than 300.
“While completely rejecting the accusations against Iranian citizens, the Islamic Republic of Iran condemns attempts by certain Argentine factions to pressure the judiciary into issuing baseless charges and politically motivated rulings,” the statement read.
“Reaffirming that the charges against its citizens are unfounded, the Islamic Republic of Iran insists on restoring their reputation and calls for an end to this staged legal proceeding,” it continued.
Last month, a federal judge in Argentina ordered the trial in absentia of 10 Iranian and Lebanese nationals suspected of orchestrating the attack in Buenos Aires.
The ten suspects set to stand trial include former Iranian and Lebanese ministers and diplomats, all of whom are subject to international arrest warrants issued by Argentina for their alleged roles in the terrorist attack.
In its statement on Friday, Iran also accused Israel of influencing the investigation to advance a political campaign against the Islamist regime in Tehran, claiming the case has been used to serve Israeli interests and hinder efforts to uncover the truth.
“From the outset, elements and entities linked to the Zionist regime [Israel] exploited this suspicious explosion, pushing the investigation down a false and misleading path, among whose consequences was to disrupt the long‑standing relations between the people of Iran and Argentina,” the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
“Clear, undeniable evidence now shows the Zionist regime and its affiliates exerting influence on the Argentine judiciary to frame Iranian nationals,” the statement continued.
In April, lead prosecutor Sebastián Basso — who took over the case after the 2015 murder of his predecessor, Alberto Nisman — requested that federal Judge Daniel Rafecas issue national and international arrest warrants for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over his alleged involvement in the attack.
Since 2006, Argentine authorities have sought the arrest of eight Iranians — including former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who died in 2017 — yet more than three decades after the deadly bombing, all suspects remain still at large.
In a post on X, the Delegation of Argentine Israelite Associations (DAIA), the country’s Jewish umbrella organization, released a statement commemorating the 31st anniversary of the bombing.
“It was a brutal attack on Argentina, its democracy, and its rule of law,” the group said. “At DAIA, we continue to demand truth and justice — because impunity is painful, and memory is a commitment to both the present and the future.”
31 años del atentado a la AMIA – DAIA. 31 años sin justicia.
El 18 de julio de 1994, un atentado terrorista dejó 85 personas muertas y más de 300 heridas. Fue un ataque brutal contra la Argentina, su democracia y su Estado de derecho.
Desde la DAIA, seguimos exigiendo verdad y… pic.twitter.com/kV2ReGNTIk
— DAIA (@DAIAArgentina) July 18, 2025
Despite Argentina’s longstanding belief that Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah terrorist group carried out the devastating attack at Iran’s request, the 1994 bombing has never been claimed or officially solved.
Meanwhile, Tehran has consistently denied any involvement and refused to arrest or extradite any suspects.
To this day, the decades-long investigation into the terrorist attack has been plagued by allegations of witness tampering, evidence manipulation, cover-ups, and annulled trials.
In 2006, former prosecutor Nisman formally charged Iran for orchestrating the attack and Hezbollah for carrying it out.
Nine years later, he accused former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner — currently under house arrest on corruption charges — of attempting to cover up the crime and block efforts to extradite the suspects behind the AMIA atrocity in return for Iranian oil.
Nisman was killed later that year, and to this day, both his case and murder remain unresolved and under ongoing investigation.
The alleged cover-up was reportedly formalized through the memorandum of understanding signed in 2013 between Kirchner’s government and Iranian authorities, with the stated goal of cooperating to investigate the AMIA bombing.
The post Iran Marks 31st Anniversary of AMIA Bombing by Slamming Argentina’s ‘Baseless’ Accusations, Blaming Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Jordan Reveals Muslim Brotherhood Operating Vast Illegal Funding Network Tied to Gaza Donations, Political Campaigns
Murad Adailah, the head of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood, attends an interview with Reuters in Amman, Jordan, Sept. 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jehad Shelbak
The Muslim Brotherhood, one of the Arab world’s oldest and most influential Islamist movements, has been implicated in a wide-ranging network of illegal financial activities in Jordan and abroad, according to a new investigative report.
Investigations conducted by Jordanian authorities — along with evidence gathered from seized materials — revealed that the Muslim Brotherhood raised tens of millions of Jordanian dinars through various illegal activities, the Jordan news agency (Petra) reported this week.
With operations intensifying over the past eight years, the report showed that the group’s complex financial network was funded through various sources, including illegal donations, profits from investments in Jordan and abroad, and monthly fees paid by members inside and outside the country.
The report also indicated that the Muslim Brotherhood has taken advantage of the war in Gaza to raise donations illegally.
Out of all donations meant for Gaza, the group provided no information on where the funds came from, how much was collected, or how they were distributed, and failed to work with any international or relief organizations to manage the transfers properly.
Rather, the investigations revealed that the Islamist network used illicit financial mechanisms to transfer funds abroad.
According to Jordanian authorities, the group gathered more than JD 30 million (around $42 million) over recent years.
With funds transferred to several Arab, regional, and foreign countries, part of the money was allegedly used to finance domestic political campaigns in 2024, as well as illegal activities and cells.
In April, Jordan outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, the country’s most vocal opposition group, and confiscated its assets after members of the Islamist movement were found to be linked to a sabotage plot.
The movement’s political arm in Jordan, the Islamic Action Front, became the largest political grouping in parliament after elections last September, although most seats are still held by supporters of the government.
Opponents of the group, which is banned in most Arab countries, label it a terrorist organization. However, the movement claims it renounced violence decades ago and now promotes its Islamist agenda through peaceful means.
The post Jordan Reveals Muslim Brotherhood Operating Vast Illegal Funding Network Tied to Gaza Donations, Political Campaigns first appeared on Algemeiner.com.