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The Cornerstone Is Cracking: Why Egypt’s Internal Decay Threatens the Middle East’s Longest Peace

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attends a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the Presidential Palace in Cairo, Egypt, June 10, 2024. Photo: Amr Nabil/Pool via REUTERS

The 1979 Peace Treaty between Egypt and Israel has long been the geopolitical cornerstone of the Middle East, establishing a stable southern flank for Israel and a cooperative, if “cold,” relationship with its largest Arab neighbor.

Today, this cornerstone is under unprecedented threat. The danger doesn’t primarily come from a hostile external power, but from within the Egyptian state itself. The internal, non-cyclical fragility of Egypt is rapidly dissolving the “cold peace” into a state of volatile strategic dissonance.

The regional crises of the past two years — the Gaza War and the Houthi maritime attacks — acted as catastrophic accelerants, instantly translating Egypt’s deep structural decay into geopolitical instability along the shared border. The stability of the Middle East’s longest peace now depends on the rapidly deteriorating economic and social health of the Egyptian state.

The core of Egypt’s fragility is the fiscal collapse of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s “Second Republic,” a system defined by military-led state capitalism.

The military establishment and its senior officer corps regard their dominance over key sectors of the economy as an inherent entitlement. This dominance severely crowds out the legitimate private sector, undermining competitiveness and preventing the creation of an economy that can generate sufficient employment.

This crony system, fueled by expensive priorities and massive borrowing, has created a state of unsustainable sovereign debt. For the upcoming fiscal year, Egypt is projected to spend an astonishing 65 percent of its annual budget merely on servicing existing debt payments. This burden starves productive investment and social welfare programs, forcing painful cuts.

Massive, repeated bailouts from the IMF and Gulf states have consistently prevented “dramatic failure.” However, they also create a moral hazard, allowing the Sisi regime to avoid the necessary structural reform — namely, loosening the military’s economic grip — thereby sustaining the underlying instability. The institutional contradiction is stark: the entity providing short-term security (the Egyptian military) is the same entity impeding the long-term economic stability required for peace to endure.

Beneath the economic crisis lies a massive, alienated youth surge. Egypt’s young population (Gen Z) harbors profound political disillusionment and distrust. With over 60% of workers in the informal sector, and a university degree no longer a reliable pathway to employment, economic despair is widespread. The resulting legitimacy crisis compels the regime to adopt an aggressive foreign policy to ensure its own survival. Adopting a hostile, nationalist stance toward Israel — especially over Gaza — functions successfully as a surrogate for anti-regime politics, diverting popular resentment away from domestic failure.

This fragile domestic foundation collided with the regional shock of the Houthi attacks. The resulting trade diversion caused Suez Canal revenues to plummet by 61.2% in the first quarter of the 2024–2025 fiscal year. This catastrophic loss of foreign currency instantly translated the structural fragility into geopolitical volatility.

The consequence is a rapid strategic transformation of the peace framework. Egypt is shifting from an accommodated counter-terrorism partner to a state establishing a conventional deterrence posture against Israel. This is evident in the military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula, which some Israeli officials contend exceeds the limits of the 1979 Military Annex. The dispute over control of the Gaza-Egypt border, the Philadelphi Corridor, is the most volatile point of tension, as Israel’s security interest in stopping smuggling conflicts directly with Egypt’s existential fear of mass displacement into Sinai. Furthermore, Egypt suspended high-level security coordination channels following the Gaza conflict, removing a crucial lubricant from the “cold peace” and elevating the risk of tactical misunderstandings.

The durability of the 1979 Treaty requires the United States and Israel to address Egyptian fragility not as an economic problem, but as a core national security imperative. Western partners must impose strict conditionality on aid to enforce the loosening of the military’s grip on the economy. Beyond this, long-term security requires substantial funding for non-military economic development and social inclusion in the Sinai Peninsula to address root grievances. Finally, immediate US-led diplomatic pressure is necessary to reinstate suspended security coordination and formalize new, jointly monitored security arrangements for the Philadelphi Corridor.

The internal decay of the Egyptian state is transforming the Mideast’s longest peace into a conventional hostility. If the cornerstone of the region is allowed to crumble, the stability of the entire region will collapse with it.

Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx

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Zohran Mamdani visits the Rebbe’s Ohel, increasingly a pilgrimage site for politicians

(New York Jewish Week) — Zohran Mamdani visited the gravesite of the Chabad-Lubavitch movement’s late leader on Monday, one day after the shooting that killed 15 people at an Australian Hanukkah event hosted by Chabad.

Yaacov Behrman, a Crown Heights activist who works as a PR liaison for Chabad, said Mamdani reached out about visiting the gravesite, known as the Ohel.

“Following the terrorist attack in Sydney, Australia, the mayor-elect asked to visit the Ohel to pay his respects and came last night,” said Behrman, who was present during Mamdani’s visit.

The New York City mayor-elect did not publicly share anything about his visit to the Ohel on Monday, but a photo obtained and posted by Forward journalist Jacob Kornbluh showed Mamdani wearing a black velvet kippah standing at the gravesite.

Mamdani had shared a lengthy statement on Sunday morning calling the Bondi Beach attack a “vile act of antisemitic terror.”

“I mourn those who were murdered and will be keeping their families, the Jewish community, and the Chabad movement in my prayers,” Mamdani wrote.

Mamdani specifically mentioned Rabbi Eli Schlanger, who was killed in the attack, and his “deep ties to Crown Heights,” the Brooklyn neighborhood that is home to the headquarters of the Chabad-Lubavitch movement.

“What happened at Bondi is what many Jewish people fear will happen in their communities too,” Mamdani wrote.

Monday marked Mamdani’s first known visit to the Ohel, which is in the Old Montefiore Cemetery in Queens, and is a site with particular significance for adherents and admirers of the Chabad movement. It is the resting place of the movement’s two most recent leaders: Menachem Mendel Schneerson, known as the Lubavitcher Rebbe, and his father-in-law, Yosef Yitzchak Schneerson.

In recent years, it has become an oft-visited site by Jewish and non-Jewish politicians and public figures.

The Ohel draws 1 million visitors per year, according to Chabad’s website, who are “religious and not, laypeople and leaders, Jews and non-Jews, each one coming to pray, seek inspiration and find solace.”

Mamdani’s predecessor, Mayor Eric Adams, has visited the Ohel at least seven times, and has said that he finds himself there during “the most difficult days” of his life. President Donald Trump visited the Ohel to mark the first anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

Other visitors to the site in the last five years include Ivanka Trump; New York Gov. Kathy Hochul; then-Long Island congressman Lee Zeldin, who is Jewish and now heads Trump’s EPA; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. during his presidential candidacy; Rep. Mike Lawler; Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand; and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker. Argentinian president Javier Millei and Sara Netanyahu, the wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have both visited from abroad.

“There’s nothing opulent about it,” Rabbi Motti Seligson, a Chabad spokesperson, told the Free Press during a tour of the Ohel in early 2025.

Visitors have found deep meaning in their time in the open-roofed mausoleum. Booker, who prays at the Ohel on the eve of his elections, told the Free Press that he finds “something universally spiritual about that sacred space” even though he is not Jewish.

“I find my visits are both grounding and expanding,” Booker said.

Mamdani’s visit to the Ohel comes as Chabad officials and Jewish leaders are doubling down on their efforts to celebrate Hanukkah with public menorah lightings around New York City. Those events have surged in attendance in the wake of the Bondi Beach attack.

The visit is Mamdani’s most recent appearance in a primarily Orthodox Jewish space as he seeks to overcome skepticism among many Jewish voters who were turned off by Mamdani’s opposition to Israel. Voters in Crown Heights, where the Chabad-Lubavitch community is headquartered, turned out heavily for Andrew Cuomo in November’s general election.

The mayor-elect attended a celebration by the Satmar Hasidic sect last week, which is anti-Zionist for religious reasons. He was endorsed by a Satmar rabbi, Moishe Indig, and was welcomed to a sukkah by Indig in the fall.

During the Democratic primary, he made an appearance at a breakfast organized by the Council of Jewish Organizations of Flatbush, where there was a large Orthodox Jewish population.

The photo of Mamdani at the Ohel circulated in Jewish WhatsApp groups, and has been shared by some local Chabad chapters’ social media pages.

“His decision to go was surprising,” Chabad Virginia Beach wrote in an Instagram post. “But we all know that when light and darkness meet, light has the power to transform. And this place is a place of light.”

The post Zohran Mamdani visits the Rebbe’s Ohel, increasingly a pilgrimage site for politicians appeared first on The Forward.

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Iran Opposes Grossi’s UN Secretary-General Candidacy, Accuses Him of Failing to Uphold International Law

UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi holds a press conference on the opening day of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) quarterly Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, Sept. 8, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Elisabeth Mandl

Iran has publicly opposed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi’s potential appointment as UN Secretary-General next year, accusing him of failing to uphold international law by not condemning US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June.

During a UN Security Council meeting on Monday, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, sharply criticized Grossi, calling him unfit” to serve as UN Secretary-General next year, Iranian media reported. 

“A candidate who has deliberately failed to uphold the UN Charter — or to condemn unlawful military attacks against safeguarded, peaceful nuclear facilities … undermines confidence in his ability to serve as a faithful guardian of the charter and to discharge his duties independently, impartially, and without political bias or fear of powerful states,” the Iranian diplomat said. 

With UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ term ending in December next year, member states have already begun nominating candidates to take over the role ahead of the expected 2026 election.

Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israel’s relationship with Guterres has spiraled downward, reaching a low point last year when then-Foreign Minister Israel Katz labeled the UN “antisemitic and anti-Israeli” and declared Guterres persona non grata after the top UN official failed to condemn Tehran for its ballistic missile attack against the Jewish state.

Last week, Argentina officially nominated Grossi to succeed Guterres as the next UN Secretary-General.

To be elected, a nominee must first secure the support of at least nine members of the UN Security Council and avoid a veto from any of its five permanent members — the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. 

Afterward, the UN General Assembly votes, with a simple majority needed to confirm the organization’s next leader.

As head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog since 2019, Grossi has consistently urged Iran to provide transparency on its nuclear program and cooperate with the agency, efforts the Islamist regime has repeatedly rejected and obstructed.

Despite Iran’s claims that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes rather than weapons development, Western powers have said there is no “credible civilian justification” for the country’s nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”

With prospects for renewed negotiations or nuclear cooperation dwindling, Iran has been intensifying efforts to rebuild its air and defense capabilities decimated during the 12-day war with Israel.

On Monday, Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), declared that the IAEA has no authority to inspect sites targeted during the June war, following Grossi’s renewed calls for Tehran to allow inspections of its nuclear sites and expand cooperation with the agency.

Iran has also announced plans to expand its nuclear cooperation with Russia and advance the construction of new nuclear power plants, as both countries continue to deepen their bilateral relations.

According to AEOI spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi, one nuclear power plant is currently operational, while other two are under construction, with new contracts signed during a recent high-level meeting in Moscow.

Kamalvandi also said Iran plans to build four nuclear power plants in the country’s southern region as part of its long-term partnership with Russia.

During a joint press conference in Moscow on Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated Iran’s commitment to defending the country’s “legal nuclear rights” under the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal, noting that Tehran’s nuclear policies have remained within the international legal framework.

Iran’s growing ties with Russia, particularly in nuclear cooperation, have deepened in recent years as both countries face mounting Western sanctions and seek to expand their influence in opposition to Western powers.

Russia has not only helped Iran build its nuclear program but also consistently defended the country’s “nuclear rights” on the global stage, while opposing the imposition of renewed economic sanctions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has described the reinstatement of UN sanctions against Iran as a “disgrace to diplomacy.”

In an interview with the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN), Lavrov accused European powers of attempting to blame Tehran for the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, despite what he described as Iran’s compliance with the agreement.

Prior to the 12-day war, the IAEA flagged a series of Iranian violations of the deal.

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Eurovision Host Says It Will Not Drown Out Any Boos During Israel’s Performance

ORF executive producer Michael Kroen attends a press conference about the Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna, Austria, Dec. 16, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Lisa Leutner

The host broadcaster of the next Eurovision Song Contest, Austria’s ORF, will not ban the Palestinian flag from the audience or drown out booing during Israel’s performance as has happened at previous shows, organizers said on Tuesday.

The 70th edition of the contest in May will have just 35 entries, the smallest number of participants since 2003, after five national broadcasters including those of Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands said they would boycott the show in protest at Israel’s participation.

What is usually a celebration of national diversity, pop music, and high camp has become embroiled in diplomatic strife, with those boycotting saying it would be unconscionable to take part given the number of civilians killed in Gaza during Israel’s military campaign following the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel.

“We will allow all official flags that exist in the world, if they comply with the law and are in a certain form – size, security risks, etc.,” the show’s executive producer, Michael Kroen, told a news conference organized by ORF.

“We will not sugarcoat anything or avoid showing what is happening, because our task is to show things as they are,” Kroen said.

AUSTRIA SUPPORTED ISRAEL PARTICIPATING

The broadcaster will not drown out the sound of any booing from the crowd, as happened this year during Israel’s performance, ORF’s director of programming Stefanie Groiss-Horowitz said.

“We won’t play artificial applause over it at any point,” she said.

Israel’s 2025 entrant, Yuval Raphael, was at the Nova music festival that was a target of the Hamas-led attack. The CEO of Israeli broadcaster KAN had likened the efforts to exclude Israel in 2026 to a form of “cultural boycott.”

ORF and the Austrian government were among the biggest supporters of Israel participating over the objections of countries including Iceland and Slovenia, which will also boycott the next contest in protest. ORF Director General Roland Weissmann visited Israel in November to show his support.

This year’s show drew around 166 million viewers, according to the European Broadcasting Union, more than the roughly 128 million who Nielsen estimates watched the Super Bowl.

The war in Gaza began after Hamas-led terrorists killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and seized 251 hostages in an attack on southern Israel.

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