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The Fall of Assad: A Tectonic Shift in the Middle East
A person gestures next to a burning picture of President Bashar al-Assad, after rebels seized the capital and ousted the president, in Qamishli, Syria, Dec. 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, with experts suggesting it has dismantled Iran’s “ring of fire” strategy and created both opportunities and challenges for Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time in hailing the moment as a “historic” victory for Israeli strategy and security, calling it “a pivotal step toward regional stability and peace.”
“The Assad regime is a central link in Iran’s axis of evil — this regime has fallen,” he said on Sunday.
Speaking during a visit to Mount Bental on Israel’s border with Syria, Netanyahu described the regime’s downfall as the culmination of years of coordinated efforts to counter Iranian influence in Syria. “This is a strategic achievement for Israel, the fruit of our resolute actions against Iran’s entrenchment in the region.”
A Fragmented Syria
The vacuum left by Assad’s downfall has fragmented Syria into competing zones of control. Dina Lisnyansky, an expert in political Islam and terrorism, explained the current dynamics and said there was reason for “cautious optimism.”
“We’re seeing three main factions taking hold: Druze forces in the south, Kurds in the northeast, and Salafi Islamists elsewhere, including parts of Damascus,” she told The Algemeiner.
According to Lisnyansky, this mosaic of power offers Israel a rare diplomatic opening. “This could be an opportunity for Israel to establish relations with individual factions or a new Syrian government.”
However, she cautioned against unbridled optimism against the Salafis, represented by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group which led the raid on the Syrian capital of Damascus on Sunday. “The Salafi Islamists remain a branch of al-Qaeda, despite their leader [Abu Mohammed] al-Golani’s rhetoric about good relations with Syria’s neighbors — Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel,” she said. “It’s no coincidence that they received congratulations today from the Taliban, who enthusiastically backed their achievements and the overthrow of Assad.”
Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli similarly cautioned Israelis against premature celebrations.
“These are jihadists and Islamists who have done some of the worst things, of the ilk of ISIS and al-Qaeda,” he said, warning that Syria could “look like Afghanistan in no time.”
But, he said, the silver lining was the Kurdish control in the northeast region.
Lisnyansky warned that Turkey’s role in facilitating the overthrow adds another layer of complexity for Israel. Turkey’s growing influence in Syria even carries a potential risk of invasion, Lisnyansky said, referencing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s threats earlier this year that if Turkey shared a border with Israel, he would have already demonstrated his country’s capabilities, implying retaliation over Israel’s war in Gaza.
“Turkey is, without a doubt, hostile to Israel today. While we very much hope to improve relations with Turkey on one hand, we’re not under any illusions, This means they could currently place forces on our border that might even invade our territory,” she warned.
“We need to proceed with very cautious optimism and understand that what’s happening in the region is still extremely unclear,” she concluded.
Iran’s Setback
The Assad regime’s collapse has struck a significant blow to Iran’s regional ambitions. Assad’s government was a crucial link in Tehran’s efforts to arm and fund terrorist proxies from Lebanon to Gaza, forming a so-called “ring of fire” around Israel. With Damascus now fractured and Iranian proxies weakened, the Islamic Republic’s influence in Syria has been severely undermined.
Issam Zeitoun, a former Syrian opposition figure and founder of the Syrian Peace Initiative, highlighted the importance of regional efforts in this shift. “There is an obvious international and regional decision to keep Iran out,” he said. He credited Israel with playing a central role in curbing Iran’s influence, emphasizing the broader international agreement driving these developments.
Zeitoun also highlighted the humanitarian consequences of the regime’s fall, emphasizing the urgent need to support civilians in southern Syria. “We need to take care of them,” he said.
Zeitoun, speaking to The Algemeiner en route to Israel from Germany — where he fled following the Assad regime’s crackdown — outlined his plans to arrive in Jerusalem to discuss the renewal of the Good Neighbor project, which provided essential supplies and humanitarian aid, including medical treatment, to thousands of Syrians in border communities during the height of the civil war.
During his remarks at Mount Bental, Netanyahu also addressed the program, announcing Israel’s intent to resume it and highlighting its impact, noting that “hundreds of Syrian children were born here in Israel.” At the same time, he reaffirmed Israel’s policy of avoiding direct involvement in Syria’s internal conflicts.
Zeitoun expressed hope for a new era, emphasizing the potential of the Abraham Accords in reshaping regional alliances, and adding that they could potentially include Syria’s new leadership, depending on its trajectory. “We would love to join the Abraham Accords,” he said, referring to a series of US-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several countries in the Arab world in 2020.
“Everyone is happy. I’m getting calls from everywhere with congratulations. It’s been a very, very bad half-century for Syria,” he said.
“If something happens that we don’t like, we can change it,” he added, expressing confidence that Syrians have learned from the past and will not allow another dictator to take power.
Focus on Israel’s Security
While Netanyahu struck a celebratory tone, he also stressed the importance of vigilance. He gave the order for the Israel Defense Forces to be deployed in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, he said, marking the first time since the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 that Israeli forces have been present in the area for more than a few hours. Israeli forces on Sunday also captured the Syrian side of Mount Hermon.
“We are acting first and foremost to protect our border,” he said. “This area has been controlled for nearly 50 years by a buffer zone agreed upon in 1974, the Separation of Forces Agreement. This agreement has collapsed; the Syrian soldiers have abandoned their positions.”
Nir Boms, chairman of the Syria Research Forum, also struck a cautiously optimistic note, pointing to the potential for renewed cooperation with moderate Syrian groups.
“We’ve seen success in working with opposition figures in the past, particularly in the south. Whether such collaboration can be replicated in this new Syria remains uncertain, but the opportunities are there,” he told The Algemeiner.
“This war is not over yet, but for those who follow the war in Syria and those who see Assad’s downfall as a victory, it is at least a small reason to raise a toast,” he said.
Minorities in the Post-Assad Era
Israeli Maj. Shadi Khalloul (res), an expert on the region and Aramaic Christian activist, emphasized the importance of securing the areas captured by Israel over the weekend. “We will take what we need according to our security needs until there is a safe and different reality,” he told The Algemeiner.
Khalloul reflected on the broader implications for Christians in the region, highlighting their historical suffering under Assad’s regime, which he described as a “vicious enemy” to Israel and to Lebanon’s Aramaic and Maronite communities. Now, with Assad’s fall, communities across Lebanon — including Sunnis, Christians, and Druze — are celebrating, he said.
He noted the significance of Israel’s role in shaping this outcome: “Lebanon and Syria should thank Israel for liberating them, because without Israel this would not have happened today,” he told i24News.
But like the others, Khalloul warned of the risks tied to Syria’s uncertain future, pointing to the potential for instability if secular and Islamist factions fail to reach a power-sharing agreement.
“If these two sections find a deal to divide the power in Syria and rule Syria together, then we will have stability. But if not, we might see a civil war develop between these sides,” he said.
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Israel Strikes Houthi Targets in Yemen
Smoke rises after Israeli strikes near Sanaa airport, in Sanaa, Yemen, Dec. 26, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
Israel struck multiple targets linked to the Iran-aligned Houthi terrorist group in Yemen on Thursday, including Sanaa International Airport, and Houthi media said three people were killed.
The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said he was about to board a plane at the airport when it came under attack. A crew member on the plane was injured, he said in a statement.
The Israeli military said that in addition to striking the airport, it also hit military infrastructure at the ports of Hodeidah, Salif, and Ras Kanatib on Yemen’s west coast. It also attacked the country’s Hezyaz and Ras Kanatib power stations.
Houthi-run Al Masirah TV said two people were killed in the strikes on the airport and one person was killed in the port hits, while 11 others were wounded in the attacks.
There was no comment from the Houthis, who have repeatedly fired drones and missiles towards Israel in what they describe as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said following the attacks that Israel will continue its mission until it is complete: “We are determined to sever this terror arm of Iran’s axis.”
The prime minister has been strengthened at home by the Israeli military’s campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon and by its destruction of most of the Syrian army’s strategic weapons.
The Israeli attacks on the airport, Hodeidah and on one power station, were also reported by Al Masirah TV.
Tedros said he had been in Yemen to negotiate the release of detained UN staff detainees and to assess the humanitarian situation in Yemen.
“As we were about to board our flight from Sanaa … the airport came under aerial bombardment. One of our plane’s crew members was injured,” he said in a statement.
“The air traffic control tower, the departure lounge — just a few meters from where we were — and the runway were damaged,” he said, adding that he and his colleagues were safe.
There was no immediate comment from Israel on the incident.
More than a year of Houthi attacks have disrupted international shipping routes, forcing firms to re-route to longer and more expensive journeys that have in turn stoked fears over global inflation.
The UN Security Council is due to meet on Monday over Houthi attacks against Israel, Israel‘s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said on Wednesday.
On Saturday, Israel‘s military failed to intercept a missile from Yemen that fell in the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area, injuring 14 people.
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Controversial Islamic Group CAIR Chides US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew for Denying Report of ‘Famine’ in Gaza
US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew. Photo: Alchetron.
The Council on American–Islamic Relations (CAIR) has condemned US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew for casting doubt on a new report claiming that famine has gripped northern Gaza.
The controversial Muslim advocacy group on Wednesday slammed Lew for his “callous dismissal” of the recent Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) report accusing Israel of inflicting famine on the Gaza Strip. The organization subsequently asserted that Israel had perpetrated an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza.
“Ambassador Lew’s callous dismissal of this shocking report by a US-backed agency exposing Israel’s campaign of forced starvation in Gaza reminds one of the old joke about a man who murdered his parents and then asked for mercy because he is now an ‘orphan,’” CAIR said in a statement.
“To reject a report on starvation in northern Gaza by appearing to boast about the fact that it has been successfully ethnically cleansed of its native population is just the latest example of Biden administration officials supporting, enabling, and excusing Israel’s clear and open campaign of genocide in Gaza,” the Washington, DC-based group continued.
On Monday, FEWS Net, a US-created provider of warning and analysis on food insecurity, released a report detailing that a famine had allegedly taken hold of northern Gaza. The report argued that 65,000-75,000 individuals remain stranded in the area without sufficient access to food.
“Israel’s near-total blockade of humanitarian and commercial food supplies to besieged areas of North Gaza Governorate” has resulted in mass starvation among scores of innocent civilians in the beleaguered enclave, the report stated.
Lew subsequently issued a statement denying the veracity of the FEWS Net report, slamming the organization for peddling “inaccurate” information and “causing confusion.”
“The report issued today on Gaza by FEWS NET relies on data that is outdated and inaccurate. We have worked closely with the Government of Israel and the UN to provide greater access to the North Governorate, and it is now apparent that the civilian population in that part of Gaza is in the range of 7,000-15,000, not 65,000-75,000 which is the basis of this report,” Lew wrote.
“At a time when inaccurate information is causing confusion and accusations, it is irresponsible to issue a report like this. We work day and night with the UN and our Israeli partners to meet humanitarian needs — which are great — and relying on inaccurate data is irresponsible,” Lew continued.
Following Lew’s repudiation, FEWS NET quietly removed the report on Wednesday, sparking outrage among supporters of the pro-Palestinian cause.
“We ask FEWS NET not to submit to the bullying of genocide supporters and to again make its report available to the public,” CAIR said in its statement.
In the year following the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, Israel has been repeatedly accused of inflicting famine in Hamas-ruled Gaza. Despite the allegations, there is scant evidence of mass starvation across the war-torn enclave.
This is not the first time that FEWS Net has attempted to accuse Israel of inflicting famine in Gaza. In June, the United Nations Famine Review Committee (FRC), a panel of experts in international food security and nutrition, rejected claims by FEWS Net that a famine had taken hold of northern Gaza. In rejecting the allegations, the FRC cited an “uncertainty and lack of convergence of the supporting evidence employed in the analysis.”
Meanwhile, CAIR has been embroiled in controversy since the onset of the Gaza war last October.
CAIR has been embroiled in controversy since the Oct. 7 atrocities. The head of CAIR, for example, said he was “happy” to witness Hamas’s rampage across southern Israel.
“The people of Gaza only decided to break the siege — the walls of the concentration camp — on Oct. 7,” CAIR co-founder and executive director Nihad Awad said in a speech during the American Muslims for Palestine convention in Chicago in November. “And yes, I was happy to see people breaking the siege and throwing down the shackles of their own land, and walk free into their land, which they were not allowed to walk in.”
CAIR has long been a controversial organization. In the 2000s, it was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land Foundation terrorism financing case. Politico noted in 2010 that “US District Court Judge Jorge Solis found that the government presented ‘ample evidence to establish the association’” of CAIR with Hamas.
According to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), “some of CAIR’s current leadership had early connections with organizations that are or were affiliated with Hamas.” CAIR has disputed the accuracy of the ADL’s claim and asserted that it “unequivocally condemn[s] all acts of terrorism, whether carried out by al-Qa’ida, the Real IRA, FARC, Hamas, ETA, or any other group designated by the US Department of State as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization.’”
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Jewish Civil Rights Group Representing Amsterdam Pogrom Victims Slams Dutch Court for ‘Light Sentences’
Israeli Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters are guarded by police after violence targeting Israeli football fans broke out in Amsterdam overnight, in Amsterdam, Netherlands, November 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ami Shooman/Israel Hayom
The international Jewish civil rights organization legally representing more than 50 victims of the attack on Israeli soccer fans that took place in Amsterdam last month has joined many voices in lambasting a Dutch court for what they described as a mild punishment for the attackers.
“These sentences are an insult to the victims and a stain on the Dutch legal system,” The Lawfare Project’s founder and executive director Brooke Goldstein said in a statement on Wednesday. “Allowing individuals who coordinated and celebrated acts of violence to walk away with minimal consequences diminishes the rule of law and undermines trust in the judicial process. If this is the response to such blatant antisemitism, what hope is there for deterring future offenders or safeguarding the Jewish community.”
On Tuesday, a district court in Amsterdam sentenced five men for their participation in the violent attacks in the Dutch city against fans of the Israeli soccer team Maccabi Tel Aviv. The premeditated and coordinated violence took place on the night of Nov. 7 and into the early hours of Nov 8, before and after Maccabi Tel Aviv competed against the Dutch soccer team Ajax in a UEFA Europa League match. The five suspects were sentenced to up to 100 hours of community service and up to six months in prison.
The attackers were found guilty of public violence, which included kicking an individual lying on the ground, and inciting the violence by calling on members of a WhatsApp group chat to gather and attack Maccabi Tel Aviv fans. One man sentenced on Tuesday who had a “leading role” in the violence, according to prosecutors, was given the longest sentence — six months in prison.
“As someone who witnessed these trials firsthand, I am deeply disheartened by the leniency of these sentences,” added Ziporah Reich, director of litigation at The Lawfare Project. “The violent, coordinated attacks against Jews in Amsterdam are among the worst antisemitic incidents in Europe. These light sentences fail to reflect the gravity of these crimes and do little to deliver justice to the victims who are left traumatized and unheard. Even more troubling, they set a dangerous precedent, signaling to future offenders that such horrific acts of violence will not be met with serious consequences.”
The Lawfare Project said on Wednesday that it is representing over 50 victims of the Amsterdam attacks. It has also secured for their clients a local counsel — Peter Plasman, who is a partner at the Amsterdam-based law firm Kötter L’Homme Plasman — to represent them in the Netherlands. The Lawfare Project aims to protect the civil and human rights of Jewish people around the world through legal action.
Others who have criticized the Dutch court for its sentencing of the five men on Tuesday included Arsen Ostrovsky, a leading human rights attorney and CEO of The International Legal Forum; Tal-Or Cohen, the founder and CEO of CyberWell; and The Center for Information and Documentation on Israel.
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